What now? - the E-factor

[Baashi]

The E-factor - as it happens news analysis.

By Inna-Kaadi-Najaasle

Waxa-la-Yiri editorial piece.

Monday, June, 5th, 2006

 

The troubled city of Mogadishu has now new keepers. Islamic courts have won the battle. If the news dispatches from ground zero are something to go by, it appears that the warlords have fled from their area of control and are now regrouping in the regional capital of Jowhar. With the exception of Al Hajj Mussa Yalaxow and Cabdi Qaybdiid, the warlords have lost basis, warehouses full of donated military logistics, airport, important make-shift seaport, and clan support. All of them lost their phantom titles in the TFG ranks.

 

However, they still do have one very important card. They have the Ethiopian support. As an important regional power with existential interests in the future of Somali state, Ethiopia has proven time and again its unprecedented intrigue and calculation to control the country’s political players by easily changing variables in the Somali political equation so much so that all the known warlords (except Barre Hiiraale and the JVA allaince) operating in Southern theatre today owe their eminence to Addis Ababa’s backing.

 

Moreover the defeated warlords have Jowhar and its wobbly prince at their side. With Ethiopian support and with Jowhar base, they are not totally finished. Not yet! They have few swings left in them. There is also a big room for clan manipulation and the possibility of rallying troops in the name of my clan against theirs. With western money and Ethiopian armament combined with organized and well equipped Jowhar militia under Dheere, there is a chance that they may be back with vengeance.

 

Equally important is the division within Maxkamadaha. They are subject to clan manipulation. If leaders don’t solidify their base and find unity under the banner of one strong leader, Mogadishu will remain as anarchic as it had been under the competing warlords. The existence of more than twelve different factions within courts makes them prone to sinister influences.

 

The irony of all of this is with the new balance of power shifting to courts’ hands, TFG is not in a better position than it was when its warlord enemies had sway in the capital. Courts and the TFG strongman just don’t see eye to eye. If the past verbal exchange between TFG and Courts is something to go by, they are and indeed remain sworn enemies. On the other hand, TFG needs recognition and support from US to consolidate power and bring the south under its control. It has appealed to US administration after US’s support to the warlords in Mogadishu became public knowledge.

 

TFG position was that US administration position to support the warlords is weakening the new government. TFG went as far as invoking UN’s embargo to put the heat on US administration. However, TFG leaders made crystal clear that if money and logistical armaments are channeled through them, they will deal with the courts themselves.

 

Although all the above mentioned factors contribute greatly to the Mogadishu’s instability, no power has more influence in Somali politicking than Ethiopians. The defeat warlords of Mogadishu suffered at the hands of the courts amounts nothing as long as Ethiopia is willing to give them more fire power, important diplomatic connections, regional representation, and what have you.

 

Ethiopian meddling in our politics is a major contributing factor to Somalia’s civil war. Warlords that have been defeated in battles in the past came back with more fire power and stashs of green and reignited the “uncivil†war that’s been raging in the South.

 

E-factor is real. Mogadishu warlords will disappear if Addis Ababa stops giving these criminals the support they need this time around. However if Zenawi decides to remake them and restore their position in the capital they will remain a force to reckon with and by extension the good people of Mogadishu will pay the price in blood. It is that simple.

[Che -Guevara]

I think Ethoipian troops have to literally march to Mogadisho for warlords to ever come back there.

 

In my view only two things will undo the success of the courts. The first being the obvious division within the courts, they must aviod the pitfalls faced by USC in 1991. Unified leadership with vision for all Somalia is needed here to aviod a repeat of 1991.

 

The success in Xamar may tempt the courts to subjugate all Somalia by force. This might lead to more militaristic endeavors by courts. Hopefully, the leadership would be wise to know it is better to engage rest of Somalia peacefully rather than militarily.

[Suldaanka]

Inna Kaadi Najaasle has some good points there, Baashow.

 

But he gave the toothless TFG more than it could chew on his take on things. The current conflict which is raging in Banadir region has exposed the irrelavance of the TFG - not just to Somalis but also at the world stage (mind you, islamists taking over a capital is a big news headline).

 

The thing is, if Ethiopia or the US were to use anyone to do the dirty work, it will be Mogadishu's defeated warlords. They are in a better position (on clan grounds) than anyone else to take on the Courts. And since they are no longer part of the TFG, they are particularly attractive to get outside support (ie Ethio or US).

 

Ethiopia, having playing the cards for the past decade or so, will not sit idle and watch its eggs being distroyed like that. I think it will, one way or the other, flex its muscles. If and when that happens, I think Geedi's haste decision to sacking of the Mogadishu warlords is something thats gonna haunt him for the months to come.

[Baashi]

Friends,

 

The fact that TFG is irrelevant as far as Mogadishu’s power struggle is concerned is not point of contention. Any objective observer with ounce of dignity can attest to that fact. Control of Mogadishu my friend is “the†key prerequisite to have for any legitimate future government to succeed. The TFG top brass in Beydhabo know quite well the importance as well as political weight the capital city has in Somalia’s political equation.

 

Furthermore, it has been the policy of the powers that matter for quite sometimes now to link Mogadishu’s control to any formal recognition afforded to any government in Somalia. We are on the same page on this score.

 

I can understand that y’all itching to lambaste the strongman in Beydhabo . But beyond that the truth is the E-factor is the devil that’s been pouring gasoline in this bonfire. If there is any doubt no matter how minuscule on the E-factor and its determinant role in Somalia’s prolonged civil war that doubt will be put to rest by the events that are about to unfold in northern Mogadishu.

 

The conflict will take one of two paths in my opinion. Either Ethiopia will continue empowering its friends with the latest armaments, military logistics, food supplies, trucks, gasoline, and money until it succeed installing a puppet government under its thump. Or it will start cherry picking and look for a brand new warlord inside the city limits. Either way this key city will remain anarchic and by extension the possibility of national government with enough teeth to control the country will remain unattainable dream.

 

The only probable move that can put an end to this perpetual conflict of ours is to have the TFG mend fences with the top brass that lead the various court alliances. If that were to happen I think the civil war in the southern theatre would end overnight. For starters, the courts now control all the key roads, ports, cities, and farms in the South.

 

I don’t think they can remain a unified force for too long. The temptation of power, greed, and clannish appeal is far too great for some of its core fighters to resist. I pray and hope that they realize the opportunity this day has brought and seize it before it’s too late.

[Paragon]

A very crucial moment. The courts' next move will either make or break them. I hope they make the right decision. Although the TFG is a weakling today, the courts may want to work with the TFG as leaving the TFG idle will only lead to it being used by another enemy (Ethiopia or re-grouped warlords). There is little wonder that some of the defeated warlord militias are joining the ranks of the TFG.

[General Duke]

Abdiqaybdeed has given in to his clans court. Good news it seems there is a pattern in which the warlords are realising at last that they have no support and thus must cut and run.

[Gabbal]

Baashi, bal labadaan ku dheg!

 

1. All the key sea and airports in southern Somalia are held by anti-Ethiopian forces.

 

2. The victory of the Islamic Courts is also a consolidation of Arab influence in Somalia and petro-dollars and armaments are likely to follow, if they have not already been part of the equation.

[RedSea]

Originally posted by Baashi:

 

I don’t think they can remain a unified force for too long. The temptation of power, greed, and clannish appeal is far too great for some of its core fighters to resist. I pray and hope that they realize the opportunity this day has brought and seize it before it’s too late. [/QB]

Baashow saaxib, that is your opinion and I have to respect it, however, greed and struggle for power between the courts themselves is not going to take place as it appears at the moment. Their leadership and their unification is far too strong to fall for anything. The possibility that clan might overtake the loyalty of the different memebers to the courts has already been tested during the recent battles in which both sides consisted of men from the same sub clan; they have proven it to be rock solid when it comes to to that and not vonurable to clan appeal.

 

Moreover, I agree with you and I too also hope that they succeed and I am sure they won't repeat the same mistakes as they did in early 1990s when they had similar oppurtunity. In those times, they had put minor things such as smoking as priority crimes punishable to being put into container in hot day near the beach. This time I hope they start with bigger issues such security and political issues facing the areas under their control.

 

Allah knows best.

 

Assalamu Calaykum.

[Baashi]

The day after...

Waxa-la-Yiri follow up report.

By Xog-Haye

 

The AU has submitted informal request to the US administration. According to news wires, AU is asking US to throw its support behind the fledgling transitional government in Beydhabo. AU warns that Mogadishu fate is akin to that of Afghanistan right after Soviet troops conceded defeat and pulled their troops out of the country.

 

The whereabouts of the defeated warlords are not known. There are conflicting reports reaching to Mr. Xog-haye’s Mundul in no-man’s land. The most credible tidbit is coming from dukaan in Jowhar. Sources close to Mohamed Dheere’s villa have told the owner of this dukaan that some of the warlords have been flown to Djibouti where US military fleet are stationed.

 

There are other dispatches from the troubled capital reporting that the defeated warlords are enroute to Addis Ababa after briefing to US intelligent unit aboard US warships in Djibouti. Waxa-la-Yiri team are also getting different feeds from Beydhabo and the report on the warlord’s whereabouts is that they are still in Jowhar waiting an airplane for a trip to Addis Ababa.

 

Mogadishu is calm 2day after courts declared a major victory over the evil and much hated warlords of Mogadishu. The courts have not communicated to anyone as to how they are planning to spend their new political capital. It is not very clear how the factions within the courts will divide power or whether they will form a unitary court system that will bring normalcy to the capital. Negotiations of how to best form a Benadir administration have proven very tricky in the past. The expectation is that with the absence of feuding warlords the formation of Benadir administration will succeed.

 

But one thing is clear. No one is shedding tears for the warlords’ departure. Waxa-la-Yiri team found very difficult to filter out all the snippet and tidbit info coming out from a gamut of sources. Biibito, Marfishs, Internet Xaafado sites, and virtual fadhi-ku-diri which form the core business of our Waxa-la-Yiri news organization are in state of excitement never seen before. Bear with us fellaz we are sure trying to bring clarity to these events as they happen on ground zero. With clarity we hope you will be able to digest the raw info coming out from hometown.

 

Because of sheer volume of feeds we've been recieving from our sources, Waxa-la-Yiri has some difficult in analyzing the gathering of court leaders, former political figures, and Al Hajj Mussa Yalaxow. Supposedly the meeting is designed to disarm the remnants of the warlords. What is not so clear is the terms and conditions of this truce between the two sides.

 

Equally confusing to Waxa-la-Yiri news gatherers is the absence of other major figures of the courts as well as inclusion of politicians with no relations to the courts in this fence mending exercise.

 

All in all the ball is rolling and by and large the resident of Mogadishu appear to let out a sigh of relief aaaaah. The silent chant: waa maalin weynoo Muslimiinta oo idil ay wada maqsuudeen is in the air.

 

Stay tune and don’t go away. The ball has just started rolling. War san iyo weedh san ii soo wacee,Warsan iyo weedhsan ii soo wacee!

 

SOL Waxa-la-Yiri News Desk.

Run sheeg, waa ceeb sheeg.

[Alle-ubaahne]

Originally posted by Baashi:

The E-factor - as it happens news analysis.

By Inna-Kaadi-Najaasle

Waxa-la-Yiri

editorial piece.

Monday, June, 5th, 2006

 

 

.....Although all the above mentioned factors contribute greatly to the Mogadishu’s instability, no power has more influence in Somali politicking than Ethiopians. .

And that is what you think, Caaqilka Seattle! Are all these great unprecedented events accuring in Muqdisho beyond the stinking ethiopian radar screen, or the great Satan, i.e. the wicked American foriegn policy? Your error factor is proving very unreal now than ever, my sensationalist fellow.

 

Maxkamadaha... They are subject to clan manipulation.

but tell us what happen before the eyes of all those tribes who couldn't unleash any working manipulations to untangle the unity of Maxkamadaha. I think you erred to understand that manipulation is more true at the unwavering alliance of the warlords in which the Islamic courts had used for their advantages this time, by grassroot engagements with the folks in each of those tribes that surely contributed to the undeniable fact of which they are homeless now.

 

Warlords that have been defeated in battles in the past came back with more fire power and stashs of green...

Again, your mindset and experience of the past are misleading you now. The past wars between somali tribes were unprincipled and indeed very different to the fabric of this one. I hate to clarify things to our only intellectual in SOL, but Adeer this one involves with people who believe Islam and others who oppose it, not in practice, but even in theory. I personally met here a man whose cousin was killed in the fight against the Islamic courts who has firmly confessed to me that the death of his cousin was a rejoice to him and a victory for the Ummah. Has that ever happen in Somalia, Doctor Baashi? You wonder who killed him in the fight. It was his next of kin people along with the Islamic forces that he faced in the front lines; an indication of a serious matter we had never seen in the past.

 

However if Zenawi decides to remake them and restore their position in the capital they will remain a force to reckon with and by extension the good people of Mogadishu will pay the price in blood.

Zenawi did what he could and Caaqil Baashi, it's upto you to come to terms to the realities that our enemy have no options on the table except to engage us in face-to-face wars with us, including their western friends. I am sure they know the downside for embarking to that war, because it surely will solidify our unity and could lead to more victories, including the emergence of Islamic forces within Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Uganda, and Sudan and all of the regions of East Africa. We have nothing to lose, adeer. If our 'good people of Mogadishu' as you put it choose to die in a honorable cause, then what is the fuzz you making saaxiib?

 

Now, bring on the Ethiopians you fear most, and we will see what they get from us!

[me]

Futuh Al-Habasa all over again. E-factor has lost the initiative. The tribal alliances have been dying for a while now and the Somali people have been waiting for a unifying ideology wether islamism or nationalism. Lets hope the courts play this game wisely. The courts have the initiative and the enemies of Somalia are in 'check'. In the future keep your eyes open for other popular oprisingins the rest of the country. especially in the North-East and the North-West.

[-Lily-]

^^^ The E facor is never dead, even if against all the odds, some sort of agreement is made that results in a shabby government in the South, they wil still use Somaliland is a platform to always meddle with the affairs of Somalis.

 

Alle Ubahane, I don't think Ethiopian influence is a matter of fear, more like mosqitos on a hot night that you cannot get rid of, whatever you try.

[Allamagan]

Originally posted by Baashi:

I don’t think they can remain a unified force for too long. The temptation of power, greed, and clannish appeal is far too great for some of its core fighters to resist. I pray and hope that they realize the opportunity this day has brought and seize it before it’s too late.

That is what I fear most, so far they (uic) are playing well their cards so lets hope and pray that Allah (swt) may lead them into the right direction. They still enjoying the public support tho!

 

am

[Suldaanka]

I can understand that y’all itching to lambaste the strongman in Beydhabo .

"Strongman" in where??

Baashow, the old man is 'up sh!t creek without a paddle’.

 

The current top dog in Southern Somalia is non other than that shrewd looking crook-eyed shiekh Yusuf IndhoCadde.

 

The man proved time and again how powerful he is. He was the central player in all the conflicts in the south since the start of the MBagathi conference, helping his friends succeed where they would otherwise be facing defeat. And he delivered time and again from Morgan to Baydhabo and to the current defeat of the warlords in Mogadishu.

 

As they say, the man is on fire.

[Baashi]

Waryee Prince rejoice bro for the warlords have been defeated, humiliated, and sent to their masters to get practical direction and useful instruction for the next move of the Maryooleey chess game. I gotta tell ya buddy, ur fixation on the fate of the strongman in Arlaadi territory is uncalled for

 

My cyber fadhi-ku-dirir buddy Meastro Oodweyne, your opinion have been noted. Your overall assessment on the complicated situation down south is a valid one.

 

Your excellent take and shrewd analysis on all the variables in the south eqaution is in general quite accurate. The only shortcoming that I see in your writeup is your take on the US and how it might play its hand in the wake of warlords' defeat.

 

Of course I don't have a crystal ball but my understanding on the whole affairs in our troubled region leads me to believe that Uncle Sam will give in to the IGAD, Arab League, AU, and UN pressure to support the TFG. All these world and regional bodies are on the same page as far as stablizing Somalia is concerned. Some regional entities have vested interest in seeing Somalia getting back on its feet.

 

We'll wait and see I have a hunch that we are in a state of confusion after courts against all odds destroyed all the interests groups' war plans be it foreign ar warlords.

 

My man Alle-U-Baahane magac qurxoone,

 

We've been looking for you buddy. Where have you been. We need ur feeds and all the happenings in Boston. Waxa-la-Yiri crew are in overdrive gear as we speak. Your feeds in beloved but much-abused and neglected Mogadishu is very important to our operations in No-man's land Mundul complex. Call me ASAP.

 

In regards to your post, I gotta tell ya baba you are short in caffiene. The first two bigeys is on me. This is your first treat form the crew. The third cadeys is from ur pocket. Is tank full? Super!

 

Kaftan aside, sxb we are on the same page. The dispatches are not personal opinions but rather raw news wires ala "As it happens" CBC radio program up North in Canada.

 

Look E-factor is there. They have influence on our internal affairs. In my book they have been the sole king makers and warlord sustainers the whole time. I'm really short in time...will catch you later Allah-willing.

 

Will be back 2morrow Insha'Allah.

 

Excuse errors and what not. Don't have time to reread this.