Time for a change of plan for Sheikh Sharif's government

[NGONGE]

I think it is time, I believe it is time, surely it must be TIME!

 

When Al Shabab blow up Hargeisa, Bosaso and those medical students in Mogadishu, they refused to comment or claim responsibility. Those of us who chose to extend them the benefit of the doubt refused to openly condemn them or accuse them of masterminding such heinous crimes. We had ample reasons to doubt the reliability and accuracy of such accusations. Al Shabab, we reasoned, are a Jihadist group that believes it is fighting for honest, religious and noble reasons. Such groups, no matter of the wrongness and ugliness of the acts they commit, almost always come forward and claim responsibility for their actions. That Al Shabab did not on those previous occasions seemed strange and made one wonder if the accusations were fair after all. Furthermore, this group has been (wrongly in my opinion) accused of all manner of silly and pointless things (from banning bras, asking women to wear red socks when menstruating, forcing men to give up their daughters, to cutting off of tongues). On the other hand, they also openly came up with some intrusive and extreme rules (going into people's houses during Ramadan and catching those that are not fasting, announcing that they'll punish men who shave their beards and, the brilliant and utterly excessive act of digging up the graves of dead Muslims and non-Muslims). Yet, it is because of their openness with such madness that one refused to believe they would be behind the bombings in Hargeisa, Bosaso and that medical ceremony in the Somali capital.

 

Now though, the game has changed. Al Shabab (for whatever reason) has become bolder and more open with their bombing agendas. They threatened to do something in Kampala; they blew up Kampala, and uncharacteristically, admitted to their crime there (though, as ever, they don't see it as a crime). The same happened with the incident at Muna Hotel; they carried out the attack and boldly claimed responsibility for it.

 

Sheikh Sharif has seen this yet is not doing anything new about it. He seems to be following his earlier plan of securing foreign support and aid to combat Al Shabab. This, under the circumstances, does not sound like a bad idea. However, it is the same old scheme and, on its own, is unlikely to yield any different results.

 

The recent bombing presents the beleaguered sheikh with a great opportunity to restore his shattered reputation and wrestle the mantle of 'good guy' from Al Shabab. However, in order to do this he has to become more vocal and visible. He is fortunate enough to live in a time when the mediums of communication are easily accessible and in abundance.

 

Sheikh Sharif has been losing ground ever since the day he become president. His Prime Minster is probably unknown to many Somalis and, frankly, after all this time of being in charge, has proven his total and utter incompetence. His cabinet are not that much better and, again, I doubt that many Somalis (even those avid followers of politics) could remember all their names. This is the main reason why the Sheikh must take matters into his own hands and begin a process of media onslaught on Al Shabab and all those that threaten Somali peace.

 

The material for his speeches is all there. He has used it many times before. Alas, it was always directed at the wrong audiences (Diaspora Somalis and foreign media). What the president needs to do is appear on both international Somali channels (Universal and Somali TV). He needn't appear once either, it has to be a sustained and unrelenting campaign of speeches, plans and interaction with his citizens (ala Chavez). He has to sell the message that Al Shabab is a threat to Somalis. He has to point to their shortcomings, their lack of a political plan for Somalia, their amateurish leadership designs. He has to discredit their ability to govern fairly and give (true) examples of this.

 

He also has to repent and admit to the failures, mistakes and bungling conduct of the Islamic Courts' period of ruling and his role in that conduct. He has to explain to the populace the difference between peacefully controlling a city (as the Courts did) and the actual running, administering and politically managing a country (as he is trying to do). He must share his vision for a future Somalia with his listeners. He must tell them how he plans to improve the livelihood of the many widows, the crippled, the starving poor and the thousands upon thousands of unemployed and disgruntled youth in a country where guns are readily available and trouble is easily attained.

 

Somalis are clannish by nature and no amount of political correctness, rolling of the eyes or finger wagging is ever going to change that (not in the near future anyway). Most of the problems in the past twenty years were due to this one obsession and only a fool, dreamer or ignorant person would dare argue that the solution to these problems should not take the clan angle into consideration (clan, as I keep telling you, is everything). This is another area Sheikh Sharif must make use off. He has to come out fighting and throw the cat amongst the pigeons. He has to create a common clan enemy in Al Shabab. If the aim is to pacify the South, he then must use the northern roots of the Al Shabab leader to create a united southern front. If he refers to PL and SL, he should refer to them by the clans that reside there and attempt to shame the clans of the South with such a mention (are they better than us? Are they nobler? Is there more Calcium in the milk of their camels? Why do they manage to attain and keep peace but we can't? Etc). If he does it correctly and with the minimum amount of rabble rousing, he may yet dislodge Al Shabab and chase them out of Somalia. However, if he maintains his silence and foreign travels, he will either lose to Al Shabab or get stabbed in the back like his predecessor.

 

Whatever he does, he must ACT and earn his title.

[Land_Soldier]

So to summarize, your saying Shariif should:

 

-Sell the message that the Somali race and their whole being is in danger

 

-Point to Al Shabaab as enemy of the Somali's

 

-Use the momentum to create hope for alternative,

 

-Convince on urgency so people act and give you support

 

-Emphasize common sense

 

-Create commonalities

 

-Seek unity by differentiate and distancing yourself from others who stand by and do not act(SL, PL, etc)

 

 

Ceesha calaa. This is what you call a Political Strategy!

[NASSIR]

What can he do in 4 months that he couldn't do in 2 years.

 

Nice analysis, Ngonge.

 

I agree the transitional government is the only hope for Somalis but not with Shariif at the helm. TIME for a new reconciliation conference and a change of leadership. This time, A Government of National Union (GNU) that appeals to all Somalis unlike federalism..

[General Duke]

NGOONGE, nothing new here adeer. Sharif and his backers were never serious about containing Al Shabaab let alone defeating the, even his Chief of staff and Interior Ministers just to name a few still have close connections with the mad movement.

The stalemate will continue for now, with AL Shabaab declaring the final battle every other months and then running out of steam after a couple of days. Sharif will repeatedly talk tough when his house gets bombed and then go back to sleep. A vicious cycle in which the poor civilians of that city will bear the brunt.

 

Sharif’s loss is the gain of the powerful regional states in the North. It’s clear now that a strong central Somali government will not come to fruition for at least another generation. To safe what is left of Somalia, all developmental programs must be directed towards the North.

[NGONGE]

^^ Developmental programs only? Why not go the whole hog and do an SL dee? It makes much more sense and it'll free you from this lie you're living, Duke.

 

Nassir, the man has history. The Islamic Courts came up in a period of mere months and pacified one of the most difficult cities in the world. With Sharif now though, he may have his own ideas of pacifying Somalia but he seems too thick to realize that such idea will never bear any fruits unless he airs them and get the public to embrace them. The idea of reconciliation and another president is not likely to work this time. Until and unless Al Shabab are defeated or brought to the negotiating table, I am afraid that Somalia will be stuck with Sharif (or one of his helpers, should he voluntarily step down or get the rug pulled from under his feet). At any rate, nobody in the world is going to organise another reconciliation conference.

[General Duke]

^^^Nonsense ya NGOONGE, the Northern States includes the secessionist enclave which needs as much development as any. Did you think that the Mugged ones elevation to regional president and his relocation to Villa Morgan was somehow a game changer? You are indeed deluding yourself.

Sharif's failure is an opportunity for both, SL and PL . It’s clear that the hope for the Somali race is held up Norf. Wax Fahan..

[NGONGE]

^^ Dee I'm telling you that PL should just do an SL and say we are a new country and we demand what is due to us. It is much nobler than this hiding behind Somalia's googarad whilst throwing stones. Wax fahan.

[General Duke]

^^^Adeer Puntland is a home for all Somali’s aside from Al Shabaab agents everyone else is welcome to reside and contribute towards the state.

Thus the ********* of secession with its clanist laws of citizenship and glorification of colonial rule is an absurd system that no one should emulate.

However Puntland should declare itself the new republic of Somalia and temporary custodian of the republic along with all its symbols, the flag is already raised high in the state and the capital should move there until Mogadishu is secure and in Somali hands once again.

[NGONGE]

^^ Isn't there some sort of bird that does exactly what you're suggesting there?

[Malika]

Alright you two..PL iyo SL xagaa laa taga>>

 

Ngonge,I agree with you. Sharif needs to use the mass media to reach the masses. He should not underestimate the power of it.

 

1.He must abandon all this tit for tat kind of talk.He needs to raise above fingure pointing and blaming this or that person.

 

2.He needs to eloquently address the nation, by sharing his vision - The man had a vision, an agenda when he successfully brought stability in Mogadishu in his Islamic court era.

 

3.Again he has got to share the passion, for what drove him to want to bring peace and stability.

 

Argh.

 

All I know is he has got to start speaking - for the love of God speak out!

 

[that was just incase he read this]

[General Duke]

NGOONGE. Adeer thats the only course, left Puntland already covers 1/3 of Somalia, and 50% of its Coastline and we are including the NW regions as well. Then you have a chance to reclaim the other central and southern regions one by one.

 

This madness of basing a government in 2KM square area in hostile territory has failed.

 

The absurd notion that the clans of Hargaysa can gain recognition has also failed.

[Gheelle.T]

NGONGE, although I may agree most of your sentiments regarding what the said Shareef should do, but I think it's too little to late as Nassir pointed out. Even if his mandate is extended, the man has nothing under his sleeves other than good sermons. He needs fighting forces who are loyal and can take on AS, and I dont think AMISOM is willing to fill that in nor can the (deserting after training )so called Somali army do it.

[General Duke]

Back to the topic, Sharif has nothing left to offer, if he speaks or if he stays silent it matters not. He was a product of Yusuf Garda’s BBC and Xasan Dahir’s ambition. In a way I feel sorry for him, he went from being “hope” to dope in a very short period of time.

[NGONGE]

GT,

I also fear it is too late but it is merely a fear at this point. For all we know, he still has a chance. You know Somalis and how their brains work. Many supported him yesterday but deserted him when he proved to be a dud. If he shows them that he has a bit of initiative they may yet come back and support him with their money and man power (big if).

[Gheelle.T]

^War ninku waa reactionist and would speak only when AS does crazy things. Did you not listed to his press conference yesterday? He said something along the lines that he would call all his military advisers/commanders and come up with new strategy to defeat AS. So, there you have it! But you are right that there will be no hem lost if he speaks.

 

By the way where is Juje lately? He should talk to him or convey this message, sort. And I am not saying it in jest!