Beware of Ethiopians Bearing Gifts

[Wisdom_Seeker]

Eric Martin

 

Via Blake Hounshell comes news that US forces launched another AC-130 air strike in Somalia today. As with the previous effort launched earlier this month, this strike was ostensibly aimed at suspected al-Qaeda operatives. Despite claims made in the aftermath by Somali government spokesmen to the contrary, that earlier attack did not result in the death of any of the al-Qaeda targets.

 

It is not known whether we hit any of the desired targets this time either. The article also reports on the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Mogadishu, and eventually all of Somalia, as mentioned on this site yesterday.

 

There was one additional bit from the article that stood out to me because of its significance in terms of appreciating Ethiopia’s motives for invading neighboring Somalia.

 

Keep in mind that most observers expect Mogadishu - and Somalia generally speaking - to fall prey to anarchy and widespread clan violence when Ethiopian complete their withdrawal, now that the stabilizing ICU government has been toppled. That is, unless those departing Ethiopian troops are replaced by sufficient numbers of international peacekeepers. The deployment of such peacekeeping forces remains dubious at best, and even if they are provided as planned, they are no guarantee against a return to chaos. So the prospects for Somalia going forward are not bright.

 

If Mogadishu descends into another period of clan warfare, some regional analysts say, that is precisely what Ethiopian Prime Minister Zenawi Meles wanted all along.

As evidence, they point to an Ethiopian government foreign policy report submitted to that country’s Parliament two years ago.

 

According to an English translation, Ethiopian security officials wrote that

Somalia was so divided that it “no longer posed a threat” to Ethiopia.

[emphasis added]

As I’ve been suggesting all along, this eventualilty is a feature, not a bug. Although the cited report is not exactly smoking gun evidence of such motives, common sense dictates that longtime, bitter rivals generally don’t expend blood and treasure to better the cause of their adversaries. The fact that such concepts appear in official Ethiopian strategy papers should come as no surprise. When the facts on the ground and previous policy match up with common sense, let Occam’s razor cut to the chase.

 

Source

 

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Ooh, how i love the way Eric Martin clarifies what has been so obvious to most of the TFG opposing Somalis and other individuals. The Ethiopians were never interested in helping Somalia become a nation that could challenge them in the future. The lion doesn’t tell his weakness to his prey. And Ethiopia has brought more deaths and destruction to the Somalia nation, that is a fact.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

Mission Accomplished?

 

Reuters is reporting that Ethiopian troops will begin withdrawing from the Somali capital of Mogadishu today. While the current Somali government has maintained, repeatedly, that the Ethiopian soldiers will be replaced with a contingent of peacekeepers from the African Union (made up of troops from several African nations), the willingness and ability of the African Union to muster and deploy such a force remains in doubt given its current commitments in Darfur and general logistical difficulties.

 

Further complicating the matter, playing referee to warring factions in Mogadishu is not exactly a plum assignment conducive to peacekeeping success, or light-footprinted deployments. Somalia’s notorious clan-based conflicts are not only limited to the current Somali government’s (TFG) battles with factions loyal to the ousted Islamic Courts Union (ICU). Even the TFG coalition has begun to splinter and fall prey to infighting.

 

Tim Lister explains the scope of the challenge:

 

Occupying Mogadishu, as U.S. and other forces found in the 1990s, is a perilous undertaking. A city of narrow streets and alleys and hundreds of wrecked buildings, it is perfect territory for snipers and suicide bombers. The Ethiopians say they want to withdraw from Somalia within weeks, aware of the potential quagmire it might otherwise become. Even on the day they entered Mogadishu, some Ethiopian convoys were attacked by crowds throwing stones. Two weeks later, an ambush of a Somali/Ethiopian convoy in the south of the city, where the Islamic Courts were strongest, left two people dead. The transitional government has declared martial law to try to bring order to the city.

 

Besides the Islamist threat, there is the task of subduing various clans that use checkpoints as a license for extortion and harass businesses. There is no police presence in Mogadishu, so that task will fall to soldiers of the transitional government and the Ethiopians….Within two weeks of the Islamists’ expulsion, there were signs of a resurgence in clan warfare. Several were killed in a firefight between TFG troops and militia of clan leader Mohamed Qanyare Afrah outside the Villa Somalia, the presidential residence. “Another Iraq is not going to happen in Somalia,” declared Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, but the Ethiopians are facing overlapping conflicts and rivalries that would be familiar to U.S. commanders in Baghdad.

Well, Prime Minister Meles may be able to make good on the vow that Somalia will not turn into another Iraq - for Ethiopian forces at least. Rather than opting to stick around, attending to the difficult task of establishing security and stability, the Ethiopians have one foot out the door. In that same article from just a few days ago, Tim Lister asked:

 

Will the Ethiopians now stay in Somalia to provide order or withdraw quickly and hope that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) can establish its authority?

The answer to the first part of the question seems to be coming together already. As to Ethiopia’s intentions to support the long term success of the TFG, as I suggested earlier, for Ethiopia: “[d]estabilizing Somalia, and leaving it wracked with violence and disorder, is a feature not a bug.” At the very least, it isn’t worth the trouble to try to prevent (albeit, a cynical perspective).

 

Somalia is a regional rival with a long history of conflict with Ethiopia. The two nations have been feuding over contested borders, and the inclination of separatist ethnic/religious movements residing across those disputed borders, for decades. The notion that Ethiopia’s recent intervention in Somalia was born out of altruistic concern for the well being of the Somalis is beyond naive.

 

While the Ethiopian government had some legitimate gripes with the ICU, it is difficult to see any of these as a legitimate cassus belli. Instead, the invasion looks more and more like a regional powerplay designed to knock its rival off balance - while creating a domestic political windfall for the unpopular Ethiopian regime (and giving it license to further repress internal political rivals).

 

With that in mind, it becomes easier to appreciate the fact that for Ethiopia, the current state of play in Somalia - despite the likelihood of a descent into lawless violence - looks like Mission Accomplished.

 

Kind of makes all those conservative pundits who were breathlessly heaping praise on the prowess of Ethiopia’s military look a little silly. For these pundits, Ethiopia had unlocked the secret to military success that had thus far eluded us in Iraq: a combination of extreme indifference to civilian life, and relative non-attention from the meddlesome media. Cliff May, in a pique of infatuation, asked:

 

Maybe we can learn something from the Ethiopians in Somalia?

John Miller followed this up with even more over the top adulation:

 

…I can’t read the news today and keep from wondering whether we should airlift a few Ethiopian battalions into Baghdad.

Come to think of it, Miller and May might just have a point - even if not the one intended. If we could airlift a few Ethiopian battalions into Baghdad, maybe they could show us how to head for the exits.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

Bump….

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

walaal itobiya ayay kaga degtee, why don't you talk about real problems?

[Castro]

With no AU peace keepers in sight for there really is no peace to keep and the rumors of Ethiopians withdrawing ( ), it must be very lonely and scary where atheero Abdillahi Yuusuf sits.

 

I've been gone a week from this forum and it seems the euphoria oozing from the TFG supporters has faded already. The party is rapidly coming to an end and the hang over is about to set in. What will be of A/Y and the Somalis he claims to rule? Will they embrace him as their savior knight in shining (Ethiopian) armor or show him the door (as he deserves)?

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

you really do march to your own beat don't you castro. We have a lot to celebrate but what did you expect, a yearlong celebration? now is time to start considering what steps the government might and should take. half of the job is done bu there is still a lot of work to be done.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

Naxar

 

So far you have nothing to celebrate about, other then your own defeat which you haven’t yet realized. Ethiopia is part of the problem, without the Ethiopians, the TFG would be nonexistent. You should know how crucial the Ethiopian support is to our puppet government. It plays an important role in shaping the future of Somalia. Such a satisfaction shouldn’t have been given to them.

 

Ethiopia was the only one which was doing all the wok, the TFG slightly just nodded their head in uncertainty.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

ethiopia is leaving in few daysl, islamist are being bombed in oblivion in the forested border of southern Somalia. I don't see the defeat you speak of, please tell me.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

Naxar

 

Ethiopia is going no where. You have being deceived nevertheless that doesn’t meaning others will be deceived as well. Innocent people are being bombed. You as a fellow Muslim shouldn’t be using the word “Islamist” in such a mortifying way.

 

The definition of an Islamist is: 1) a scholar who knowledgeable in Islamic studies

2) An orthodox Muslim

 

When someone describes a Muslim as an Islamist he/she should be proud. I will take you serious when you stop using the words you hear on FOX News or at least tame your ignorance.

[N.O.R.F]

There are independent confirmations of civilian dying in the first air raids by US planes. What make syou think it is not the same again?

 

ps i didnt see you condemn the previous attacks (on civilians and their herd) naxarow.

 

tow the line,,,,,,,,

[Fabregas]

lets celebrate the the angels have won and they have bombed the devilish islamists.........