What Happens after April 14th? Last day of President Rayale’s Mandate

[Jacaylbaro]

The people of Somaliland elected President Dahir Rayale on April 15, 2003 to a 5 year term; which will end on April 14, 2008. The National Election Commission (NEC), and the three national Political parties (Udub, Kulmiye, Ucid) reached an agreement to postpone the presidential election to August 31, 2008, which will effectively extend the President’s term by four months and 15 days.

 

 

What was left out of this equation and a real concern for a great number of people is the framework and the process that will address what kind of entity will be running the country after April 15. Is there going to be a coalition government made out of the three parties or a simple extension of the Rayaale’s administration term? Was this issue even discussed by the parties in question? What does the Constitution say about the circumstances that would dictate extending a presidential term?

 

 

According to article 83[5] of the Somaliland Constitution; [if on the expiry of the term of office of the President and the Vice-President, it is not possible, because of security considerations, to hold the election of the President and the Vice-President, the House of Elders (Guurti) shall extend their term of office whilst taking into consideration the period in which the problems can be overcome and the election can be held].

 

 

The Constitution clearly allows extending the term of the President for one reason only; if there is a lack of security that does not allow the election to take place. The reason given by the NEC and the three political parties for extending the term of the President is that it is not possible to complete the voter registration process before 2008 elections.

 

 

This is a far cry from a national emergency, what we have is a monumental blunder and a clear sign of incompetence by the parties involved. Of course all of this will be academic if the Guurti returns the favor and quickly extend President Rayale’s term just as he has done for them regardless of the legality of such an act or opposing views. In fact there is good chance that they may decide a longer period of preparation for the election will be necessary. This will be an unfortunate development and sets the dangerous precedent that any feeble excuse can be used to extend the term of the President.

 

 

Now, there are winners and losers to the new development and the possibility of postponing once again the coming election to a new date sometime in the future, the question is who.

 

 

For instance what is in it for the opposition particularly for Kulmiye to agree to extend President Rayale’s term for 4-5 months? Will Kulmiye and Ucid to a lesser degree accept UDUB’s government during those 5 months or will they insist on the making of a “National Coalition Government” after April 14th? What will they do if Rayale ignores the calls to build a “national government”? Is there a potential for instability and the possibility of further unforeseen negative impacts on the upcoming 2008 elections?

 

 

There is plenty of blame to go around but the NEC being the primary body responsible to conduct these elections must take the lion share of the blame on this debacle. They have shown a lack of clear thinking and an understanding of the kind of planning involved in pulling off the huge task of conducting a nationwide voter registration process during a highly charged presidential election.

 

Linking the voter registration process to holding the election was their first mistake, proposing a less than realistic time (45 days) to complete the voter registration process was their second and bigger mistake. The fact that it would be unlikely for them to accomplish such a task, given the skill level and lack of real infrastructure present in the country was self evident as we predicted in our previous article on this matter (see EAPI’s article “Voter Registration Process’ 17 February 2008). The unfortunate conclusions one can make about this sad state of affairs for the NEC is that they are either an incompetent bunch or that they have succumbed to the political winds of the country and are not an independent body capable of making its own realistic decisions.

 

 

The international strings attached to funding the cost of the election (75% funded by Donor Nations and 25% funded by Somaliland) and conditioning the fund release to a voter registration process was a contributing factor to the current difficulties in Somaliland. Someone, somewhere should have seen this coming and made contingency plans for this oncoming train and possible outcome, because as things stand now, the voter registration process is for all practical purposes more important than actually holding the elections or pushing the country into a Constitutional crises by introducing the need to extend the president’s term beyond what the law of the land dictates.

 

 

It was the NEC’s job to point this out to all concerned and remind everyone that despite the lack of registered voters the country had undergone three very successful elections that were largely responsible in putting Somaliland on the world stage as a cut above compared to its neighbors and perhaps most of Africa.

 

 

 

 

 

The wisdom of linking the registration process to the election should be revisited as it becoming clear that it is simply unwise to throw the baby with the bath water and insist on the current course of action. If a new date is set for the elections, they should take place with or without the registration process as a precondition, and if the term of the president expires before the election, the Constitution should not be tampered with, instead a coalition government composed of the three parties should be formed as a caretaker government until the elections are held. This will put everyone (Udub, Kulmiye, Ucid) on the same footing and should create a more transparent process and a successful election.

 

 

This would be the best time for the Guurti to play a positive role in this crisis and reclaim prestige lost when they accepted an extension of their term from the president, which was seen by most as an illegal act, and propose to the administration a solution (power sharing) different than the one the president is most likely to ask (simple extension).

 

 

Registering voters before an election is a good idea, but only if the benefit outweighs the risks associated with its introduction. So far we have had two postponements and no confidence that the elections won’t be postponed yet again when we reach this new undetermined magical time. We have an unresolved Constitutional matter regarding the possible extension of the president’s term. We have a population held hostage to the whims of a political process they no longer understand and is beyond their reach of influence.

 

 

A little perspective is in order here;

 

Holding the elections in a timely and predictable manner should take precedent over perfecting the system. Registering the electorate although a great tool that aids the fairness of the process should be a goal and not an end by itself that supersedes all else.

 

 

It is our position that the registration processes should continue, but arraignments must be made for the countless number of voters who will not be registered in time due to no fault of their own, and they should be allowed to vote.

 

 

Contributions were submitted to this article by:

 

 

Mahdi Gabose

East Africa Policy Institute

[Koora-Tuunshe]

Hope not the worse but the guy consolidated his control and derogated electoral laws that it demands sheer force to loose his grip.