Guns and intervention have failed; let Somalis talk to each other

[Jacaylbaro]

Somalia is once again on the spotlight. It could only be a matter of time before Mogadishu and the beleagured “transitional” government fall to the al-Shabaab militia and their Islamist allies.

 

In the meantime, Kenya is wondering what to do. So are our regional partners in the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (believe me, Igad has always focused on Somalia rather than on development, and for good reason).

 

It would be a good start to acknowledge that the Western-backed Igad approach has failed. Prodded by the United States, Kenya, and particularly Ethiopia, have all along operated on the premise that a radical, Islamist Somalia is unacceptable. That is fine as it goes. But what has been the alternative? Pure paralysis.

 

To be fair, Kenya was probably well-meaning when she helped put together the “transitional” government led by Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed in 2004.

 

But the expectation that a government cobbled together in Nairobi by a bunch of clan warlords could win legitimacy in the sectarian minefield of Somalia was nothing but fanciful.

 

Yusuf Ahmed, a former Puntland warlord himself, never saw his authority extend beyond the town of Baidoa or the sliver of Mogadishu where his palace was located.

 

Nobody should have been surprised when the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) materialised and started gaining strength. That is when Ethiopia intervened militarily, backed by the Americans and more quietly by other African countries. It crushed the ICU but failed to resolve the legitimacy question.

 

It took some time before the Igad-Ethiopian-Weste rn partnership concluded that Yusuf Ahmed was a failure; that he could never provide stability for the country. He was eventually pushed out last December when Ethiopia withdrew her military support.

 

By then, the Ethiopians and the Americans and their allies had hit on a new strategy of roping in an Islamist moderate in the hope of blunting the hardcore Islamist element.

 

They settled on Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, a moderate in the ICU, who was installed as President of another ready-made administration fashioned in Djibouti in February.

 

The disconcerting fact, which those of of us scratching our heads over Somalia do not like to acknowledge, is that the Islamists, whether in the guise of the ICU or al-Shabaab, enjoy a lot more grassroots support than does the Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

 

I do not think this is because Somalis necessarily love of Islamist radicalism. The problem, I think, is because the TFG has always been seen as something manufactured abroad.

 

In fact, despite his earlier Islamist credentials, Sheikh Sharif is in trouble with the hardliners because of the deal he has made with the TFG.

 

It is easy to point out Igad’s policy missteps toward Somalia while forgetting that the country has been without a functional national government for the last 18 years.

 

It is important to stress that this is the fault of no one but the Somalis themselves. The sudden upsurge in piracy since last year means more than just its immediate neighbours are paying the price for Somalia’s lawlessness.

 

Many Somalis like to say that, left on their own, they could work out something. They point to the ICU and the relative order it brought in the areas it controlled. The implication is that al-Shabaab would do the same if it were left alone.

 

The solution that offers itself is for Igad negotiators to reach out to the extremists, even with gritted teeth. However, al-Shabaab could turn out to be the impediment, on the grounds of not wanting to mar its populist ideals by being seen to engage with outside infidels.

 

But hopefully at some point realism will set in. For al-Shabaab, there is no way out but to seek moderation. Otherwise there will be hell to pay.

[Jacaylbaro]

SOURCE

[Jacaylbaro]

The question is: Can those Somalis in Somalia talk to each other ?? ...

[Fabregas]

^6^maybe in 2006 with the ICU. But with the rise of shababs, the west will use SOmali groups to fight them. The issue has reached the point of no return, almost.

[Meiji]

Originally posted by Al Zeylaci:

^6^maybe in 2006 with the ICU. But with the rise of shababs, the west will use SOmali groups to fight them. The issue has reached the point of no return, almost.

Not the West will ''use'' but the West will provide the Somalis who are ready to fight the religious pretenders and their foreign Jihadi fighters.

 

The religious pretenders of Aslahabab have brought us to this point of no return.

[Jacaylbaro]

I don't care who is responsible and who is fighting who .. They are all somalis and i'm not sure talking to each other is possible now.

 

 

They will continue finger-pointing each other and that is the sad thing.

[MZanzi]

As a somaliland thug, why do you care about somalia's future? Why don't you advise your mafias in Lalaland to stop building hate against somalia

[Jacaylbaro]

Somalis in Somalia and elsewhere are my brothers and sisters .... we share a blood. I feel their pain sxb regardless of your cuqdad.

[MZanzi]

maanta casariyo fiican miyaad soo cabtay sow adigan bacdi kugu xirneed iska dabciyay ..halka ka wad hoosha adeer lol

[Thankful]

Somalis in Somalia and elsewhere are my brothers and sisters .... we share a blood. I feel their pain sxb regardless of your cuqdad.

 

But when I ask you when you will have your elections, which always seem to get pushed back, you tell me that it is an internal problem and none of my business. I feel the same way for you guys in your enclave as you do for us (brothers and sisters)!! Do you think the elections in september will go along or will it be pushed back and why doesn't Riyaale do some sort of power sharing until then?

[MoonLight1]

Somalis in Somalia and elsewhere are my brothers and sisters .... we share a blood. I feel their pain sxb regardless of your cuqdad.

What I always read from your posts say a totally different thing,a man who celebrates every disaster in the south, a man who grins on their sufferings.

 

Mise waa iska dheh waxaagu, I don't believe you feel their pain, but love their pain to continue, so you may be recognised.

[Kamaavi]

Guns and intervention have failed; let Somalis[including landers] talk to each other ,,, another peace cravan ??

[Sherban Shabeel]

We all hoped, but I'm afraid Xamar is cursed. Too much blood has been shed for the violence ever to stop. Even the trees and stones whisper of the horrors that happened in this city.

 

I try to believe, but I'm starting to think Mogadishu is headed for the same fate as Atlantis.

[Peace Action]

Mise waa iska dheh waxaagu, I don't believe you feel their pain, but love their pain to continue, so you may be recognised

Ishaad ka riday. It is also called crocodile tears. If History is any guide then we can rest assured that the South will rise again and Somali state will be reborn with brotherhood/sisterho od, justoce and prosperity, Insha Allah.

[Poker]

If Buttland and Somaliland leave them alone, I thin they can talk to each other and fix thier problems.