Hardball - ala Somali version

[Baashi]

Xiin Faniin aka fardo jaan I wanna hear ur take on the Mogadishu question.

 

Duke the Islaan,

Hiiraan is multi-clan region and anything is possible but as of now they are in Group 1 column. But if and when the going gets tough and the tough gets going don’t count on them. The only thing u can count on is two important things money (a lot of it) and supply of armament and logistics. These two can give you the upper hand. Politiking, intrigue and calculation, understanding the nature of the clan system, sizable loyal clans are very important but not effective without the two I mentioned above.

 

Horn,

Abaadir ha is xijin friend . That being said I completely agree with you on the posts being opinion from not-so-partial posters. Weigh in, look it from all possible angles, check ur facts and then and only then refute the thesis if there is any. In any event I say good for u buddy for finally making that important leap. Foruming is fun when taken it easy...take it from me sxb.

 

Spear-wielding cyber warrior,

Right on!

[Gabbal]

Horn,

Abaadir ha is xijin friend [big Grin] . That being said I completely agree with you on the posts being opinion from not-so-partial posters.

Soo dhaweynta adaa ninka kala leexsaday ee maxaad iga dacaayadeen hadaan qaladkaadi gartoo aan so dhaweeyay Adigu un baa u maleeyay inaan iska kaa xijinaayo As for the rest, atleast you're man enough to admit your weakness, i.e. partisanship On account of that, I have decided to give my due criticism of that interesting play you took the time to put together.

 

 

Group 1. Coalition of Puntland (it’s entirety), RRA (majority), North Mogadishu sub-clans, and collection of opportunistic sub-clans.

The first mistake you made was the one that concerned your "constituency", and therefore the one I had thought you had most knowledge of. In all honesty there isn't a "Coalition" of Puntland in the Doofaarey conference. Are we forgetting that MPs such as Abdulahi Black of SOOL, Asha Ahmed Abdalla of SANAAG, Jiini-Boqor of BARI/NUGAAL (etc), happened to be, although largely ignored by the ignorant Somali media, some of the most important members of the Mucaarad group that you labeled Group 2?

 

I also don't see where you estimated the "majority" RRA to be in league with the so far failed policies coming from the president's office. Aren't men such as Saransoor, Xaabsade, (and now) Sharif Shaykh Hassan very important wings of the RRA? Or is this the case of looking at whom the most recognizable member (Shaati-Guduud) of that entity is currently in bed with? A dismissal that looks awfully similar to the above Puntland analysis.

 

I think you placed North Mogadishu in that camp as a jest, right? Have we forgotten the infamous Al-Haji Muuse Suudi Yalaxow? Have we forgotten Cumar Finish? Or did it seem more favorable to you to label them simply as "warlords" comprising Group 2, and just for the sake of it, throw their strong-holds in Group 1 to enlarge that latter group. Gheedi, my friend, does not represent N. Mogadishu in the very same sense Hassan Abshir Faarax did not represent Puntland during the Carta administration.

 

Group 2. Central Somalia sub-clans, Mogadishu lords, criminal entrepreneurs, one RRA malcontent warlord, nervous and confused JVA junior partners, and clannish militia wrapped with noble Islamic garb.

Central Somalia sub-clans includes as much my sub-clan as yours, so be more specific my friend , just a jest ina adeer. In Group 2, I cannot describe you in anything other then redundent. It seems to me like the central Somalia sub-clan you have in mind, the Mogadishu lords, the criminal entrepreneurs, and the Clannish militia wrapped with noble Islamic garb are all synonyms for the HG sub-clan, right? It would be more prudent of you to come out and label them as the most visible opposition to Mbagathi administration.

 

As for the rest of that group, we have already dispelled the myth of the "lone" mucaarad RRA member, so that leaves us with your confused junior JVA partners. If there is anything I applaud the Hiirale section of the JVA for, it is their willingess and determination to stay out of the ruckus going on in Nairobi! I believe that the head distanced himself from the Nairobi episodes, and has instead acted out his true objectives in his current constituency. He has pacified the region as whole, recently having individually secured the peace between reer Afmadow/Bulaale and their arch-rivals, and he is now in the process of strengthening his position through a legitimate regional state while at the same time hosting large number of former military officers of the defunct regime. He has, of course, refused to mention the topics of their discussion. You can call the JVA/Barre Hiiraale section confused, but I will label them for the time being as "strategists".

 

Onlookers:

Several sub clans namely Gedo and West Galgaduud (internal weakness and poverty), Upper-lower Juba and middle Juba sub clans (unorganized entity), Somaliland sub clans (at crossroads wrestling with huge political dilemma - e.g internal clannish tension and unmanageable ambitious electoral process).

I normally agreed with your "Price" and "Backstage players", so I saw fit to jump to this section.

 

Though I do believe, the "Onlookers" section should have been quadruple the size it is now, I agree with the current members. The sub-clan of Gedo and W. Galgadud, logically, should not be expected to currently be engaged heavily in national poltics. It is, of course, an undeniable legacy of the twenty-one years Mohamed Siad Barre (allah yarxama) and this sub-clan were at the helm of all things high in Somalia. I agree with you on the internal weakness, seeing as how this sub-clan, are not unified under a single leader. Although, I'm hearing reports Gen Xaaji Masselah is en route to Somali peninsula, so I cannot rule anything out of as yet. As for the poverty comment, I don't even the need to reply to that one, seeing as how you are more then aware of the true standings of any part of Somalia.

[Baashi]

Horn,

Funny how you turn the clock back and bring pre-election campaign maneuvers into this as it happens analysis. Friend that was that and it’s over now. As things stand now, a line has been drawn in the sand. What you don’t understand perhaps is the basis of these groupings. To be considered as an effective warlord, leader, or politician one has to meet several criteria: 1) territorial claim 2) armed militia 3) loyal sub-clan and 4) political capital. I’m terribly sorry sxb...you just don’t have a point in bringing Caasha and Jini-Boqor into the ring where dinosaurs dance and wrestle. Hope now you see the basis of my informal analysis.

 

On RRA, well to my knowledge there are three armed wings in this organization. Shaatiguduud, Madoobe, and Xaabsade. These men are the ones who command the troops on the ground. Two out of three are in Group 1 column. These two make up (in my estimation) the majority of RRA.

 

As to Hiiraale the prince of Kismayo and the so-called strategist...well what can I say! From where I sit, I consider him the fool incarnate and facilitator of Abdiqasim grand plan. If you only knew who utilizes the port without paying taxes (not even a penny)! If you only knew reer Gedo in Kismayo are battle-hardened militia ready to kill their cousins not businessmen engaged in export and import trade mind you!

 

Jar coal trade, farmland real estate acquisition from Jamaame, kamsuuma to the Mugabe rice fields are gone to Abdiqasim sub-clan column (from the locals) and Barre Hiiraale sub-clan are not getting into the action for themselves (beyond the city perimeter) but just facilitating the loot because they can’t sustain the occupation of Kismayo without the logistical supply from Muqdishu and mechanized-technical reinforcement from the JVA senior partners.

 

Ninbaa waxa la yiri waxuu ku faanay sida reerihiisu uga adkaadeen oo u baacsadeen qolo markaa lays hayay. Nin ehul xikam ahaa oo markaa garanahayey sida xaal yahay iyo hawshu inaaney sidaa sii ahaan doonin baa gabay Somali gudaheeda caan ka ah qeymo badana u leh inta garaneysa ninkaa halka uu doodiisa ku saleeyey mariyay. Waxaa ka mid ahaa:

 

Godobta ay naga galeen rageer guul ka dhiganaaya,

....

 

Halkaasuu la maray

 

Hadaad I fahmina I weydii sabab nazuulka gabayga iyo xikmada ka danbeysa...I shall decipher the content for u

[xiinfaniin]

Baashi,

 

Mogadishu is a multi-faceted puzzle that is not easy to crack. Any guesswork from my part could only invite the wraths of Juma and Xoogsade, and I, needless to say, do not desire to be the receiving end of that vengeful anger!

 

But I do indeed sense the gathering clouds. Let us hope the spur of falling rain cause no torrent flood!

 

Horn,

 

Intriguing is how you regard praise with a man who, so to speak, bite a piece that swallow he couldn’t. Strategist he was, but the political events are changing faster than he can devise. And the proxy wars are about to halt as the buffer zones get narrower. Take no pride in him, he is the weakest link!

 

PS. I always think of Barre as a freelancing warlord.

[Baashi]

Farda jaan kaama harin

 

Inna Yussuf has 5 years to make it happen! The other side is determined to entertain him with political plays full of drama until his time expires. He blundered his first quest to ensure Ethiopian inclusion in the coming FTs. He nevertheless secured the FTs necessity to secure the anarchic city from the top dogs, Sheikh wannabess, and freelance thugs. The other side has been encouraged by the latest parliament stint they pulled off the other day, US ambassador in Kenya, and ICG damning report on the frontline troops deployment in Somalia. What’s next move relative to the Mogadishu question?

[Sky]

baashi c/yussef said he could do it in one year, and ill hold him onto that statement my man. his selfconfidence was a major boost for my hope, but lets just see what the near future is about to behold. the last months were more intense than the whole carta period. so that promises some good shows for the next 5 years, i think the political landscape will have changed with a whopping 360 degrees no doubt.

 

 

its good that you also see the power of muqdisho. jumatatu and xoogsade are right when they say that c/yussef cant just barge in muqdisho like its a toilet and i agree. he gotta show some respect if c/yussef wants to make his job a helluva lot easier for himself. it is these guys from muqdisho (well actually reer mudug, but what the hey) who chased out general moorgan out of kismaayo not one but more times with the arab petrodollars their adeer c/qassim milked from the breasts of hooyo carta. barre hiiraale and his clan are on the passengers seat of the jva, but they dont mind. better to have something, than nothing as in the 90s of general moorgan. kismaayo is their last asset before the gedonians really descend into insignificance like in pre-1969.

 

 

we all agree that the TFG of c/yussef is a giant compared to the TNG of c/qassim. and look what the hell c/qassim has done with the new friends, money and international recognition. a lot and we still smell the legacy of that through yussef indhacadde, muqdishos sly politics, bbc news etcetera etcetera etcetera....

 

 

peace

 

 

.........

[Gabbal]

Ah my friend Baashi, you have finally stopped speaking of Kismaayo from the third person point of view. It's refreshing to hear you finally ally yourself with your rightful camp. To borrow a page out of your book, let me congratulate you and say good for you buddy for finally making that important leap!

 

As for the "strategist" Hiiraale; he may have commited war crimes to which he is guilty but fool he is not to I. From where I'm sitting, no siree, not a fool to I. If only you knew that Kismayo would be ghost town as of the moment without the large export/import emanating/heading to Gedo region! If only you knew that 70%-75% of Kismayo's port traffic concerns Gedo. If only you knew that the bread-basket and agricultural belt of Somalia lives and thrives on the link between Baardheere/Beled Xaawo to Kismayo. If only you knew the ability to defend one's self doesn't impede on one's intelligence. If only you knew, if only you knew...but of course the "locals" are there to fill you in eh? Keep listening them my friend, for they will feed you the savory words your ear desires.

 

 

Have lost time, but I will be back to respond to the part about the campaign/present political manuevors.

[Baashi]

^

I’ve always spoken for Kismayo locals in person. You can go back and double check my posts. Kismayo is where I’m from. It’s my city. That fact is no secret in this forum my friend. It’s very telling that you felt necessary to say aloud that I belong to a some camp. Sure! I’m from somewhere...Kismayo

 

Awoowe waxa aan dadka kale u sheegno yeynaannu innagu isu sheegin. Inna Hiiraale co-manages Kismayo with the very folks who occupy Booli Qarran! Marka and Kismayo are the two ports that feed Mogadishu’s other half. Last time the skirmishes of Kismayo port occurred it was between the two occupying militias and I, and I suspect, you know what it was all about and how that gets resolved

 

Reer Gedo have shown their bravery and valor when the fight wass about Kismayo????? May I remind you Booli Qaran have better looking Villas than my humble looking living quarters in Kismayo! Every now and then one of our cousin sub-clans runs to Mogadishu looters and spearhead a campaign of driving us out from this city and its immediate environs. Yesterday was Col. Jees! Today is Col. Hiiraale! Surely, some sub-clan is there on the ground that necessitates coalitions and alliances to form. Ever wondered why the locals don’t run to Mogadishu and cut a deal? Were they defending from Ethiopians as Abdiqasim would have us believed Food for thought...

 

Come back plz when u got the time...

[wind.talker]

Originally posted by Baashi:

Ever wondered why the locals don’t run to Mogadishu and cut deal? Food for thought...

Only invaders need to make deals, not natives. Let's heat up the Kismaayo debate:

 

Ciidamo ka tegay deegaano ka tirsan Puntland oo weerar ku sii ah magaalada Kismaayo

 

Arbaco, March 30, 2005 (HOL) @19:00GMT: Wararka naga soo gaaraya magaalada Gaalkacyo ee gobolka Mudug ayaa sheegaya in ciidamo aad u tiro badan oo muddooyinkan lagu uruurinayay deegaan lagu magacaabo Abqaale oo ka tirsan Miyiga magaalada Gaalkacyo ay haatan u baqooleen dhinaca deegaanka Godey ee gudaha Itoobiya.

 

Ciidamadan oo tiradooda lagu sheegay 7000 oo askari ayaa la sheegay in ay weerar ku yihiin magaalada Kismaayo ee gobolka Jubada Hoose, halkaasi oo uu haatan gacanta ku hayo Isbaheysiga Dooxada Jubba.

 

Wararkan oo isa soo taraya ayaa waxay intaas ku darayaan in ciidamadan ay ku biiri doonaan ciidamo kale oo laga keenay Kilinka Shanaad ee Itoobiya, kuwaasi oo haatan lagu uruurinayo deegaanka Godey, iyadoo marka ay weerarka qaadayaana la sheegayo in ay hoggaamin doonaan saraakiil Itoobiyaan iyo Soomaali isugu jira oo laga xusay Sarkaal Soomaali ah oo lagu magacaabo Saciid Aadan (Saciid Dheere).

Ma jiraan wax hadla ah oo ay arrintani ka soo saareen maamulka Puntland iyo Dowladda Federaalka Soomaaliyeed, iyadoo qorshaha ciidamadanna la sheegayo in ay tahay sidii ay horaanta bisha soo socota ee April ay u weerari lahaayeen magaalada Dekedda leh ee Kismaayo.

 

6 Sanadood ka hor ayay ahayd markii Magaalada Kismaayo ay qabsadeen Isbaheysiga Dooxada Jubba oo halkaasi ka ceyrsaday Jen. Maxamed Siciid Xirsi Moorgan oo ka soo jeeda deegaanada Puntland, isla markaana magaaladaas ka talinayay.

 

Salaad Iidow Xasan (Xiis) Hiiraan Online

sxiis@hiiraan.com

Mogadishu, Somalia

 

Col Siciid Dheere - commander of Daraawishta Forces in Adhicadeeye (near Laascanood) - sent to Kismaayo? Expect nothing but war from this warrior.

[General Duke]

My brother Horn as ever is trapped between a rock and hard place. No doubt he fully understands the situation Hiiraale and junior partners of the JVA are in, yet loyalty to the clan means he will fight tooth and nail to defend his hero.

 

What ever I might think of Hiiraaale and it has never been much, he does not represent the whole clan of Gedo, the deal he made with con-man Abiqasin has resulted only in further impoverishing this clan. That’s why some are negotiating with PUNTLAND, others are on the side of the TFG and some like Mr Jamac Dhere outright rebelled. If Hiiraale is so strong and cunning and indeed a “strategist†in a positive sense, he would have created an administration even in the areas which he “controls.

 

The strings are being pulled in South Mogadishu, Abdiqasin being the star of this feature, Inda Cade and few others of the senior JVA once in a while make cameo appearances, while Xabsade and Hiiraale are mere extras, hardly noticeable in the shadowy background .

 

Horn, with his magnified vision, is left forever replaying the tape and pausing to the scene where our star walks by a bearded character who happens to look like the photo's plastered on his bedroom wall, but is it Uncle Hiiraale or Xabsade?

 

Wind-talker, Its funny I don’t much think the south have been introduced properly to Colonel Sacid Dheere, yet I must concede my suspicion regarding this rehashing of the old story of the claim that PUNTLAND is invading Somalia.

[Sky]

colonel siciid dheere is an animal loool i met him (gotta admit saw him) in the gigantic xerada 54aad in garoowe where i was taken as a tour and damn it this guy is born to command. youll see all these unruly egos called daraawiish and he commands them like puppies. hes kinda the field commander, the ones on camera like colonel carays sit behind offices and the shirs. by the way colonel carays is a freaking millionaire, so you get my point.

i know that there is a massive buildup of puntland troops in abqaale southwest of gaalkacyo, but i think its bullshit that they are already advancing. one thing is for sure, they will come to the south sooner or later. c/yussef made no secret about that.

 

windtalker, the trick to liberate kismaayo from the jva that are day by day cutting the land flat is to mobilize the sleeping giant in afmadow, buaale, badhaadhe, south baardheere etcetera etcetera...wich is happening, some guy called colonel cabdi mahdi came in the news with the janaay cabdalle wars and now hes buidlign up troops. they were busy since the dhoobley massacre by indhacadde.

 

hers a pic of colonel cabdi mahdi, next to the big beards of moorgan and hiiraale, we got a 3rd big bearded nigga in the house :

 

[wind.talker]

^^^

 

Col Siciid Dheere is not a man to play with for sure. When Col Yeey launched his offensive to drive out traitor-turned-MP Jama Ali Jama out of Puntland, Col Siciid Dheere was literally in the driving seat. He didn't really "invade" Garoowe as some media reported. He was welcomed because the soldiers at the 54th Military Station outside Garoowe know where their loyalty lies. What the hell did Jama Ali Jama offer Puntland other than be a puppet for Abdiqasim Salat like Xaabsade currently is?

 

As far as Jubba Dhexe, they've suffered enough at the hands of either the JVA or allied factions (Dhoobley massacre). Sooner or later, all forms of injustice must come to an end. Its funny how people forget history. The Israelis still complain about the Holocaust, yet they've been killing innocent Palestinians for ages. USC folk talk about the injustices committed against them in the past, yet have invaded people's lands, killed thousands, looted plenty of resources and have sworn to defend their stolen goods. How else would Ethiopia's 1999 invasion (along with RRA) of Bay & Bakool regions be viewed as a "liberation"? No one likes to be controlled from the outside. That's why I think there are many "sleeping giants" in southern Somalia. We'll see how things turn out when other players arrive on the ground.

[Sky]

windtalker, i dont know who you mean when you say that there are more sleeping giants in the south. this particular group actually has a large military strength and they were the most dominant force of the jubba valley when they were united under colonel jees (80%) and general gabyow (20%). thats all gone now and thats a big time khasaaro for this ppl. but the dhoobley massacre woke them up with a bucket of cold water splashed in the face.

 

who is colonel siciid dheere anyway? from wich province is he? i thought he was from sool, becuz he was most of the time in laascaanood. but he could be from anywhere in puntland. i think well hear a lot of him in the future, but as of yet hes c/yussefs duke of alva (the spanish duke whose job was to punish the dutch). jaamac cali jaamac is a loser, even reer qardhood have forsaken this lil piece of shit. i cant understand how you could ever betray your ppl for money.

[xiinfaniin]

Baashi,

 

Mogadishu is a marked city. It’s the symbol of Somali instability. An emblem of anarchy, to be sure! Aggression, hostility, antagonism, and animosity are at the core of its character. It’s where justice, law, order, and righteousness met its demise. Though I once called it home, today I think of it as the city that shelters that unrepentant ilk, the lynching crowd, if you will, whose mission is nothing less than to oversee the sabotage of the entire nation.

Gardarroy dhibbaad geysataa goor iyo ayyaane

Waxaad goyso mooye lawaa nimaad gargaartaaye

Gurigii barwaaqaysan baad gubi taqaanaaye

Gefkii aad samysaa batiyo godabahaagiiye

Gashi aan yareyn baad qabtaa jeer lagaa gudo e!

 

Yet, its name is synonymous with that of our national identity. No government could claim legitimacy without winning its control. A real dilemma, isn’t it?

 

Now, what would one (this government) do to pay pass this quagmire (Essentially, avoid the looming civil war), yet secure both international recognition and have some domestic authority?

 

Shift the southern dynamics and undertake a mission of perception changing.

 

How do you shift dynamics? What would perception changing mean?

 

 

I have to leave now.......

[Gabbal]

Adeerayaaloo garbahayga in lala safnayn ee bal mid mid iigu soo baxa. Oo waad u jeedaan difaaca dinacayga calanka ani kali baa hayee.

 

Baashi adeeroo tiri baa "Awoowe waxa aan dadka kale u sheegno yeynaannu innagu isu sheegin", marka maxaa kugu kalifay inaad sheekooyinka dadka kale aa daadicisid inaad iila imaatid? Our whole topic has turned into Kismayo, its contestion, and the recent Jubba conflict, has it not?

 

First, if we are going back back to who has rightful claim to Kismaayo, is it not worthy to note that it was Aw-Same and Ab-Same (I gather you get the drift) that drove the Booran, Oromo, etc from the place in the beginning? If your claim to the city has its origins in recent internal immigration, then do I not have a more important claim to the city then you my friend? I, who was the cause of Somalis first populating the area in the first place? A decade or two ka hor mindaa guryo waa ka taagteen, laakiin ha ilowin ninka carada xoreeyay marka anigu yo adi magacya yar aan kala tirsan jirnay

 

Let me get back to the Muqdisho connection concerning Hiiraale and his camp. Adeerow sure there is political agreements, but Muqdisho domination of that part of Somalia ends when the boundaries of the Jubba are crossed. Adeerow ogow in mid mid loo tirin karo "ciidanka" ka tirsan Seeraar's part of the JVA! Adeerow waxaad doonaysid dhagahaada ka nagulay laakiin wax ay badili karto inaysan jirin ogow!

 

Have no time, but will be back.