Hardball - ala Somali version

[Baashi]

Topic: Somali politiking

Type: opinion/commentary

 

Theatre:

South

 

Players:

 

Group 1. Coalition of Puntland (it’s entirety), RRA (majority), North Mogadishu sub-clans, and collection of opportunistic sub-clans.

 

VS.

 

Group 2. Central Somalia sub-clans, Mogadishu lords, criminal entrepreneurs, one RRA malcontent warlord, nervous and confused JVA junior partners, and clannish militia wrapped with noble Islamic garb.

 

Price: Political power and the control of Somalia’s breadbasket (South Mogadishu-Kismayo corridor) - the future of the Somali state and the wellbeing of 8 million Somalis.

 

Backstage players:

Arab league, AU and IGAD, West through EU.

 

Onlookers:

Several sub clans namely Gedo and West Galgaduud (internal weakness and poverty), Upper-lower Juba and middle Juba sub clans (unorganized entity), Somaliland sub clans (at crossroads wrestling with huge political dilemma - e.g internal clannish tension and unmanageable ambitious electoral process).

 

Happiest referee in the world:

So-called frontline states bordering Somalia.

 

Scoreboard:

Group 1

Strength:

Won the leadership battle in transparent internationally supervised election. Have unprecedented political intrigue and calculation, money, friends and the support of the so-called frontline states. Convinced the South Africa, Nigeria, and Arab league the need of FTs securing Mogadishu from the warlords.

 

Weakness:

Squandered an opportunity of being the first post-conflict Somali interim government that has all significant armed figures of the country in its rank. Uttered unnecessary rhetoric that served no purpose. Insisted the inclusion of Ethiopia for no obvious reason. Inadvertently united its mortal enemy and gave them excellent opportunity, an issue, and rhetorical speeches that they can use to rally their troops @ grass root level. No full recognition from the powers that matter!

 

Group 2

Strength:

Successfully changed the headlines from Mogadishu security, government relocation, and reconciliation process into nationalistic rhetoric - Ethiopians are coming! Used the democratic process to stop the FTs forcing IGAD and international observers to take an unambiguous stand on the issue. Made sympathetic friends from US embassy and ICG. Forced the TFG leadership to fumble nervously the aftermath of the parliamentarian vote.

 

Weakness:

Demonstrated the need of FTs by sabotaging the TFG’s intensions. Internal weakness. The lack of unified political resolution to the Mogadishu question. Unable to open the much needed ports or coming up some sort of city administration. Talking and acting as if the governance and the rule of law is problem. Playing opposite roles ministers of TFG and warlords. Lack of understanding of how decisions are made in the government (cabinet branch).

 

Unintended consequences:

Letting loose cannons seize the opportunity and start civil war possibly drawing Ethiopians into the Southern war theatre.

[Abaadir]

Baashi Wrote:

Onlookers:

Several sub clans namely Gedo and West Galgaduud (internal weakness and poverty).

-------------------------

 

How can you assossiate Gedo with poverty and weakness. Gedo is the second largest region in Somalia has more people than, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug combined. Juba river goes through Gedo more than any othar region in the country. if willingness and Investment comes in, it will produce more than its residents need.

before civil war Bedxaawo used to generate more income for the goverment than Boosaaso.

 

Gedains are generally peace loving people, but they don't accept aggresors coming their land. that is why they are strongest factions in the south. remember what happened to Morgan, Aydiid and shabeel.

[NASSIR]

Actually, the population of Gedo is sparse while the mortality rate is high. The United nations' last report says on Gedo region, people of riverine areas and Baydhabo predominate in number.

 

 

But the topic is not selective on one group. Do not miscomprehend the inherent point.

[Garyaqaan2]

by abaadir

 

How can you assossiate Gedo with poverty and weakness.

Gedo is the second largest region in Somalia has more people than, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug combined.

Juba river goes through Gedo more than any othar region in the country. if willingness and Investment comes in, it will produce more than its residents need.

before civil war Bedxaawo used to generate more income for the goverment than Boosaaso.

abaadir are you serious for the above statment gedo is one of the second largest lol and more ppl then bari, nugaal and mudug

 

you have good view of gedo but is not what you thinking. the place needs improvement like you said sxb it devently needs " if willingness and Investment comes in, it will produce more than its residents need

[NASSIR]

Wiil-duco, Respond not sarcastically.

[Coloow]

"Group 1. Coalition of Puntland (it’s entirety), RRA (majority), North Mogadishu sub-clans, and collection of opportunistic sub-clans."

 

In the name of sincerity, I don't think everyone from northern Mudug, Nugaal, Sannaag and bari supports a power hungry "col" whose only merit is a revenge discourse. Aren't Galeyr, Jini Boqor, Jamac Ali Jamac, Abdirisaaq sh, Hussein from "puntland"?

 

Are Caydid, Gacmodheere and the many ministers from puntland sub-clans?

 

In regards to RRA majority, this is a complex one. It depends who you ask or what kind of sources you listen to. The RRA is nothing without two major sub-clans that inhabit Bay/Bakool/Gedo and these two subclans are against the president and his henchmen. Haabsade represents the largest sub-clan in Baydhabo.

 

 

NORTHERN MOGADISHU subclans??? You are talking about Mohamed Dheere and his "sub-clan" is the weakest link.

 

 

VS.

 

Group 2. Central Somalia sub-clans, Mogadishu lords, criminal entrepreneurs, one RRA malcontent warlord, nervous and confused JVA junior partners, and clannish militia wrapped with noble Islamic garb.

 

This seems to be an intentional list of "evil". This kind of categorisation is why our nation is dying. There are no good or bad ppl in somalia."Central" somali subclans are not a homogenous group with similar goals, Criminal entrepreneurship is a feature of somalis, from north to south. JVA confused? Nervous? why ????

 

Won the leadership???? Are you calling the doofaarey meeting of thugs, warlords and a few good ppl a transparent process?

 

This polarization is what is wrong with somalia/somalis. The undertones of such a polarization is " clanism"- am I right?

 

My categorisation would be like this :

 

a)The oldest warlord who may have been responsible for the disintegration of somalia has been appointed by "peers" consisting of warlords as a president of the pretex of bringing back the nation known as somalia.

 

He appoints a PM who does not have the merits required for a somali office: Warlordism. His only merit from the battle field is being related to a tribal nuthead who governs what is surely, the poorest, lightly populated shabeelada hoose.

 

This PM appoints virtually every warlord to a ministerial post. The lionshare of the ministerial posts to went to his sub-clan!!!

 

 

b) Somalis begun sensing some hope in the horizon albeit some of them were very sceptical of the government of warlordship.

 

The president and PM decided to break the rules that governed the Doofaarey process:

It was not long before the president verbally resorting to tribal discourse, the language of revenge etc.

 

Anyway, somali MPS went to various cities, the president and PM went to some parts of somalia

 

When you were hoping finally somalia would be healed. The warlord president and his PM bring the issue of foreign troops.

 

The division of power stipulates the power of parliament to reject government proposals and hence the parliament votes against frontline troops.

 

We would not have been in this position had the president and PM accepted the will of the majority of MPS.

 

What is going to be the consequence? Another civil war? Another tribal war? This is a likely scenario.

 

Abdullahi Yusuf, Geedi and some websites are fuelling the vehicles of wars.

 

There is no doubt that the islamic card and the tribal one are used by southern warlords; My hope is that visitors to this website and other websites that cater to pan somali needs and development don't engage in the madness surrounding somali politics.

[Garyaqaan2]

CAAMIR ARABOOWE WIXII JIRAY BAAN SHEEGAY

[Sky]

abaadir he meant that the leadership of reer gedo was internally weak and poor, not the province itself. hold up before u jump the gun bruv.

1)if willingness and Investment comes in, it will produce more than its residents need.....2)before civil war Bedxaawo used to generate more income for the goverment than Boosaaso.

1)same thing can be applied for every area in somalia. 2)same thing can be applied for every lil dusthole, boosaaso was less than a tuulo back in the day.

[Suldaanka]

Corrections:

 

Group 1. Coalition of Puntland (it’s entirety), RRA (majority), North Mogadishu sub-clans, and collection of opportunistic sub-clans.

Both Suudi Yalahow (the cheif opposition) and Omar Filish (Both from North Mogadishu subclans) are on Group 2.

 

Group 2. Central Somalia sub-clans, Mogadishu lords, criminal entrepreneurs,

one RRA malcontent warlord

, nervous and confused JVA junior partners, and clannish militia wrapped with noble Islamic garb.

The current chairman of the RRA Mr. Mire Seeraar along with Haabsade and Sherif Hassan are on one side, on the other side you have Shadhcase+Madoobe+Deerow. Effectively, a divided organisation.

 

Happiest referee in the world:

So-called frontline states bordering Somalia

Ethiopia is not a fair playing referee, it is one sided.

[xiinfaniin]

Group 2. Central Somalia sub-clans, Mogadishu lords, criminal entrepreneurs, one RRA malcontent warlord, nervous and confused JVA junior partners, and clannish militia wrapped with noble Islamic garb.

Strength:

Successfully changed the headlines from Mogadishu security, government relocation, and reconciliation process into nationalistic rhetoric - Ethiopians are coming! Used the democratic process to stop the FTs forcing IGAD and international observers to take an unambiguous stand on the issue. Made sympathetic friends from US embassy and ICG. Forced the TFG leadership to fumble nervously the aftermath of the parliamentarian vote.

 

Weakness:

Demonstrated the need of FTs by sabotaging the TFG’s intensions. Internal weakness. The lack of unified political resolution to the Mogadishu question. Unable to open the much needed ports or coming up some sort of city administration. Talking and acting as if the governance and the rule of law is problem. Playing opposite roles ministers of TFG and warlords. Lack of understanding of how decisions are made in the government (cabinet branch).

----------------------------------------------

 

Fair analysis. In both the strengths and the weaknesses of this group, you captured the astounding failure of these warlords to comprehend that this Government is greater that thee (Mr. Yusuf).

[Baashi]

Abaadir, part of Gedo is endowed with natural resources - that much is true bro. That’s not the point though! Getting into the action in anarchic Somalia one needs a source of income, political end game, loyal clan (organized afar-jeeblayaal, nabadoono, businessmen, ex-military officers all pulling the rope for the clan leader), militia muscle, logistical armament, educated clannish class in the Diaspora, and above all unity. Clan system has become effective political enterprise and in some corners criminal one. You can hate, abhor, or curse it, but you can deny its existence.

 

If one wants to comment on Somali politics, one has to take into account all the factors in this business. Therefore, in my humble opinion, Gedo (same is true with Afmadow-Bu’aale sub-clans) lacks several ingredients that can put them in advantageous position. It’s no accident that they are part of JVA coalition of convenience (formed to defeat their cousins to drive them out from the precious real estate) and it’s is no surprise they are fighting to get part of the Kismayo’s pie. I’ll leave it there.

 

Now Caaqil, well look who’s talking here and what incoherent bubble you spewed into this page. FYI what I’m on is a hardball politiking and in this game only folks with militia muscle, political capital, and territorial claim matter more than the ones with former formal titles or mere name recognition or outspoken personalities. From this perspective, the two groups are the ones in the ring. There are opportunistic personalities that shift from one position to another and it will be difficult to pin their loyalty to one side.

 

As it happens...

The stage is uncharacteristically quite today but the maneuvers continue in full speed behind the scene.

[General Duke]

I expected nothing less from Bashi, thought provoking as ever.

 

I have one query, in which group do you place the clans of Hiiraan? Is the reference of opportunistic clans about them?

 

Musa Sudi and his cousin Finish are facing extreme pressure from their clan to tone down their rhetoric and leave the group under the tutelage of the maverick but much diminished, Osman Ato.

 

The powerful clan of south Mogadishu is embroiled in a meaningless and costly power struggle over Hobyo which has affected the relationship between two of its big sub-clans.

 

Apart from the JVA I have seen little evidence to suggest there will be much struggle for the coming liberation of the south.

 

Osman Ato, Abdiqasin, and Xasan Dahir Aways and several Mogadishu business men are the key players in this group mentioned by Bashi.

[Gabbal]

Interesting commentary Baashi. Though you have your reasons, the piece nevertheless expresses your opinion.

 

Abadir welcome to SOL sxb. It's better not to exert yourself in places their is no need. It isn't like anything written here will change the facts on the ground.

[wind.talker]

Good analysis. As far as Reer Hiiraan are concerned, the unfortunate death of Col Qalaad (alaha u naxaristo) has created a power vacuum that several leaders have been trying to fulfill. Cumar Xaashi - of Hiiraan - is currently in Muqdisho supporting Abdiqasim Salat's plans to destroy the TFG. You know where his loyalty rests. But some leaders in Hiiraan are very much pro-TFG, as indicated by the landing of Col Yeey & PM Ghedi.

 

When the bullet starts, I don't think there's going to be an "onlooker" clan. Everyone will be involved and will take a side. For once, Somalis won't be fighting along clan lines. Its going to be about politics - simply, a war between those who want change and those who oppose change. The TFG wants change because it'll empower them and free a lot of people between Marka and Kismaayo. Abdiqasim Salat - who's leading the Xabsade/Indhocade/Cato/Yalaxow/JVA/illegial profiteers camp - doesn't want change because he's invested too much in his sub-clan to loose it all. They control way too much to want any changes.

[Waranle_Warrior]

loooooool Funnyyyyyyyyyyy

 

I thought this was supposed to be comic, a good one as well, I liked it Thanks Baashi.

 

Somehow people are taking it seriously, I wonder why?

 

Loose the tention and give him a break, will you?