Why the TFG will fail and fall in 2010

[Jacaylbaro]

Brief Introduction: Since the 1991, Somalia has been a failed state; many see the current TFG (Transitional Federal Government) has a beacon of hope, but it shall fail and fall. I am not a pessimist, but a pragmatist. The majority of Somali people want peace and stability, law and order, progress and prosperity, but the TFG will not be able to bring any of these. Let us put emotions aside and look at the Somali situation rationally and logically.

 

Neo-Apartheid: “Abhorrence of apartheid is a moral attitude, not a policy.” Edward Heath

 

Problem: The current structure of the TFG is based on tribal parliamentary representation. It is known as the 4.5 system, where the main four clans get equal representation, sixty-four seats each, and the minority clans get half representation, thirty-two collectively. This governmental system has made discrimination and inequality lawful; in essence, it is the reintroduction of apartheid in Africa. When it comes to population representation, it indicates that some Somalis are equal to one (100% representation), while others are just half (50% representation).

 

This governmental system is equivalent to the United States having a racially structured congress; given some Americans full representation, while others are only given half representation. Imagine the US Senate broken down as such: 22 seats for White-Americans, 22 seats for Black-Americans, 22 seats for Asian-Americans, 22 seats for Latin-Americans, and 12 seats for all other-Americans (12 is not half of 22, but you get the idea).

 

I have a question for the reader, how can the Somali people support a neo-apartheid governmental system? People come and go, but institutions stay. Currently, TFG is institutionalizing discrimination, hence why the majority of Somali people do not believe in it. The last president, Abdilahi Yusuf, came and went but he left the neo-apartheid institution known as the TFG. Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the current president, has adopted this discriminatory system, hence why he will fail and fall.

 

Recommendation: Until there is a system of equality for all Somalis, the Somali populous, in the Diaspora and natively, will not be hopeful. If the Somalis do not believe in the Transitional Federal Government’s system, how do you expect them to support the Transitional Federal Government? The neo-apartheid system of 4.5 must be abolished and replaced with a governmental system that institutionalizes equality and full representation for every Somali. The international community must be aware of the dangers the current format of the TFG imposes. There are two choices that the Somalis and the international community can make: (1) leave the TFG in its current form and watch it fail and fall, (2) or create a governmental form that promotes equality for every citizen.

 

Foreign Troops: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Albert Einstein

 

Problem: It is historically proven that foreign troops can never bring peace and stability to Somalia. The US, the UN, the Ethiopians, and the AU have all failed miserably in their military adventures in Somalia. We have recently witnessed the army of Meles Zenawi retreat in defeat and humiliation, and we are witnessing the same for the AU. Hence, why adding more AU troops will not alter this historic fact.

 

Regardless of what the world media says, the Islamic coalition (Harakat Shabaab al-Mujahideen and Hizbul Islam) have grassroots support. I ask the reader, how is it that the Islamic coalition is able to control and govern their regions, while the warlords were not able to do so for fifteen years? It is not as if the Islamic coalition has higher tech weapons than the warlords, nor do they have more money (lest we forget the CIA giving the warlords 100,000 USD per week).

 

I will admit that the majority of Somalis in the Western world do not support the Islamic coalition, but we only speak for the Western Somalis, not the local native Somalis. We can say what we like while we live in a land of luxury, electricity, refrigeration, sewerage, excessive food, etc. But logically speaking, the Islamic coalition would not be able to do, what the warlords could not do, without the genuine support of the local native Somalis.

 

Solution: The solution is quite simple; all foreign forces (i.e. African Union) must immediately leave Somalia. They will eventually departure like every foreign army has done in the past; they should not prolong the obvious.

 

Illegitimate Parliament: “No wise man ever thought that a traitor should be trusted” Cicero (Marcus Tullius Cicero)

 

Problem: The TFG parliament is the most illegitimate parliament amongst its international peers. For starters, the Somali people did not have any say so in electing their so-called representatives, hence why the majority of local native Somalis do not support the TFG. Secondly, Somalia is a nation of only ten million people, yet its so-called parliament has 550 members. Realistically speaking, the entities of Somaliland and Puntland collectively represent two-thirds (population, land, and territorial waters) of Somalia proper and they have their own representative parliaments. So in essence the 550-member TFG parliament only represents 3-4 million people; in comparison, the USA has a 435-member parliament representing 300 million people.

 

The majority of TFG parliamentarians are former warlords and/or treasonous men. A grand portion (50%) of the current parliament voted for the inhumane Ethiopian occupation, hence they have committed treason. How do you expect the Somali people to trust or believe in the parliament who invited their enemy? How can one expect anything good from traitors? Can you imagine the US filling its congress with Benedict Arnolds? The former president of the TFG (Abdilahi Yusuf) was sent to exile just like Benedict Arnold, and the current president (Sh. Sharif) while share the same fate.

 

Solution: Reconciliation must become a priority if the Somalis are to believe in any parliament. All warlords and traitors (the parliamentarians who invited the Ethiopian military machine) must be put on trial for their crimes against the Somali populous. Those who are found guilty can never serve in government.

Conclusion

 

In conclusion, the TFG will fail and fall before the end to 2010. My prediction is a triadic political standoff in Somalia proper. Somaliland, Puntland, and the Islamic coalition will all be at loggerheads. The Islamic coalition will rule, what I call, the Southern State (between Puntland and Kenya) and will begin to siege Puntland. The outcome of Somaliland’s upcoming election will determine whether Somaliland continues on its current quasi-democratic path or whether it begins to unravel, the latter is more likely.

 

The international community must recognize the will of the Somali people; self-determination is a fundamental right for every human, including the Somalis (lest one forgets!). If the international community continues to impose their government on the Somalis, it will only further exacerbate the chaos.

 

Soomaaliya, Soomaali baa iska leh - (Somalia belongs to the Somalis)

 

 

Aman H. D. Obsiye

 

Email: ahobsiye@gmail.com

[xiinfaniin]

ma habaarkiiba bilowday

 

sibaad Maaddeey alshabaabi iskugu soo dhawaanaysaan

[Jacaylbaro]

Ma shaaruukh (muxuu ahaa magaciisu horta) ayaad i mooday

[xiinfaniin]

^^Waxba kama jiraan magacyada tirada badan waa uun hal qof awoowe, inta kale waa script

 

waase script aan qarxi karin

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

ma habaarkiiba bilowday

 

sibaad Maaddeey alshabaabi iskugu soo dhawaanaysaan

Adigu ma tfg baad naf ka sugeysey?

dawlad wasirkeedi maaliyadu Tamaandho ku ibin jiray Baydhabo iyo meeshu madaxweynuhu ahaan jiray macalin quraan

[xiinfaniin]

^Ma dhantihiin maanta xaaji

[Maaddeey]

This is why WE (all) need to support Al Shabaab!

 

Mar dhow inaan sida ummZam-zam, 'Calanka madow' soo hoos gala iraahdaa i heysa!

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

^Ma dhantihiin maanta xaaji

war waxa hanugu masaalin

[Kamaavi]

Originally posted by Xaji_Xunjuf:

quote:Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

^Ma dhantihiin maanta xaaji

war waxa hanugu masaalin

Xaaji isma ogid laakiin ,,, you sound a secret admirer of the black flag.

[Jacaylbaro]

horta xaajigan maxaa i daba dhigay ma hadhkaygii baa ??

[Maaddeey]

^2da calan kalimatu Tawxiid ayaa ka dhexeysa!

 

sabato Sera waaye, waxaa la yiri: 'Stanco per niente meglio dormire'

 

Arrivederci

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Originally posted by Jacaylbaro:

horta xaajigan maxaa i daba dhigay ma hadhkaygii baa ??

maya xaajigu Gaadh bu ka haya , topican dawlada fadaraha na dee aad baan u jecelahay inan ka hadlo