Iraq insurgency could last a decade, admits Rumsfeld

[SOO MAAL]

Iraq insurgency could last a decade, admits Rumsfeld

 

Julian Borger in Washington

Monday June 27, 2005

The Guardian

 

The US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, yesterday warned that the insurgency in Iraq could go on for at least a decade and confirmed that the army had been in contact with some of its leaders in an attempt to quell the violence.

He spoke after insurgents launched coordinated suicide bomb attacks which killed at least 33 people and wounded dozens more in the northern city of Mosul.

 

Mr Rumsfeld said that Iraqis, not US troops, would eventually bring an end to attacks that have killed thousands of civilians and 1,730 American soldiers.

 

His downbeat assessment, during a television interview, was in stark contrast to a claim at the end of May by the vice presiden, Dick Cheney, that the insurgency was "in its last throes".

 

Mr Rumsfeld said: "We're not going to win against the insurgency. The Iraqi people are going to win against the insurgency. That insurgency could go on for any number of years. Insurgencies tend to go on five, six, eight, 10, 12 years."

 

Mr Rumsfeld confirmed that US officials were taking part in talks with insurgent leaders in Iraq. Asked about a report of two such meetings in yesterday's Sunday Times, he told Fox News: "Well, the first thing I would say about the meetings is they go on all the time."

 

He added that Iraq had a sovereign government which could choose its own relationships with different groups of insurgents. "We facilitate those from time to time," Mr Rumsfeld said.

 

Al-Qaida in Iraq and another Sunni extremist group, the Ansar al-Sunnah army, both issued statements on militant Islamic websites yesterday denying having held talks with US or Iraqi government officials.

 

Mr Rumsfeld made it clear that the talks had been with Iraqi insurgents rather than foreign fighters led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian extremist.

 

He told NBC television's Meet the Press programme: "It isn't a matter of negotiating with terrorists. There's no one negotiating with Zarqawi or the people that are out chopping people's heads off."

 

General John Abizaid, the commander of US forces in the Middle East said that both US and Iraqi officials were "looking for the right people in the Sunni community to talk to ... and clearly we know that the vast majority of the insurgents are from the Sunni Arab community."

 

Amid steadily declining support for the war in the US and conflicting signals from the Bush administration, Mr Rumsfeld went out of his way to lower American expectations of a quick victory.

 

He said: "We're going to create an environment that the Iraqi people and the Iraqi security forces can win against that insurgency."

 

US war objectives have been ratcheted down in recent months from establishing stability in Iraq to training sufficient numbers of Iraqi government troops to fight the insurgency independently.

 

The policy of lowering expectations however was thrown into confusion by Mr Cheney's claim that the insurgency was "in its last throes". The claim appeared to take other administration officials by surprise and forced them into a string of semantic contortions to explain it.

 

"The fact is that if you look at the context of his remarks, last throes could be a violent last throe, just as well as a placid or calm last throe. Look it up in the dictionary," Mr Rumsfeld said yesterday.

 

He added: "There's no question but that the enemy is a thinking enemy, that their attacks are more lethal than they had been previously. They're killing a lot more Iraqis."

 

The defence secretary's back-to-back television appearances were part of a concerted administration campaign to convince the American public it has a winning strategy in Iraq amid falling home support.

 

That public relations campaign will reach its peak tomorrow night with a prime-time address to the nation by President George Bush, who will call for popular resolve in support of the nation's 135,000 troops still in Iraq.

[SOO MAAL]

Dagaal wiil baa ku dhinta ee wiil kuma dhasho In war sons are killed, but none

are born

[Haddad]

Originally posted by SOO MAAL:

...described the contacts as an effort to "split people off and get some people to be supportive" of the political process in Iraq.

Signs of desperation. The question is: Will it work? Seems nothing is going right for this gross-miscalculated occupation. I wonder if Rumsfeld was ever asked or will be asked this question: Is it possible the US could lose? I am sure he will not admit the possibility.

[Castro]

Iraq insurgency could last a decade, admits Rumsfeld

Sounds pretty accurate. It's also about how long it'll take to fleece Iraq out of its oil.

[Haddad]

Originally posted by ofleh:

Sounds pretty accurate.

So, we are talking about an accuracy rate of +90%? That's close to prediction. Well, it wasn't pretty accurate on Rumsfeld's part as you implied; it's not even what he believes, it's what he thinks, which means he's not even sure about it. could could also mean couldn't. Rumsfeld's biggest mistake is he thought the US could handle the unknown unknowns.

[Castro]

So, we are talking about an accuracy rate of +90%?

No. This insurgency will not "end" in anything less than 10 years. Looking back in history, the Vietnamese spent well over a decade before they defeated the US. The mujahideen took over a decade to rid themselves of the Soviets. Insurgency is protracted guerilla warfare. In Iraq, the aim is to expel the US using force. It takes a few years for public opinion in the land of the occupier to shift against support for the occupation. A few more years will pass by before anyone has the political will or guts to pull out. Hence the 10 year estimate. We're two years into the ten year period and 50% of Americans believe this war is not worth the cost. Wait till that figure hits the mid sixties. Then Americans will demand their government remove all troops from Iraq. Of course, the establishment will resist very strongly at the cost of thousands more American casualties and an untold (horrific) cost to Iraqis. Then one day, 6-8 years from now, the US will withdraw all its troops. Then a civil war will begin.

 

The script never changes. Only the locale and the players.

 

Ofleh

[Scientist]

We have our problems up to the neck, So Iraq insurgency is the least worrying in my mind.

[Haddad]

Originally posted by Ali_BaBa:

We have our problems up to the neck, So Iraq insurgency is the least worrying in my mind.

As Muslims, it's only natural that we worry about the Iraq insurgency, because it's about a struggle between Muslims and non-Muslims. That's why Muslims across the world are flocking into Iraq in order to take part of this struggle.

[Castro]

We have our problems up to the neck, So Iraq insurgency is the least worrying in my mind.

Not for me. Somalia is old news. The suffering there is self inflicted. Iraq on the other hand is under siege. Unjustly being destroyed by a powerful foreign invader. People are dying senselessly everyday. Somalia has no problems but to grow up, evolve past clannism and rejoin humanity. I feel not an iota of sympathy for Somalia anymore.

 

Ofleh

[Rahima]

^Almost there, but then I am brought back to sympathy by the image of the poor and defenceless who have no say and play no part in what happens.

[Scientist]

Hadaad and Ofleh

 

Don't get me wrong bros I really do worry about the situations around the Muslim world, but We have a problem and we have to discuss it, analize it, and solve it, "Charity starts from home". So don't waste your time on something which has nothing to do with you. The second thing is a lot of what is happining in Iraq is Pure terrorism, Please don't give it another name. Yes there are those who are targeting the Americans, but the vast majority of what's happining in there is EVIL, For Example the Indiscriminate killing of the civilians, the sucide bombers striking at markets, Job application centres, Bars, Restaurants, And EVEN MOSQUES. SO Please DON't mislead people and say that is JIHAD.

[Haddad]

Originally posted by Ali_BaBa:

For Example the Indiscriminate killing of the civilians, the sucide bombers striking at markets, Job application centres, Bars, Restaurants, And EVEN MOSQUES.

How do you know those behind it aren't clients for the US, for the use of undermining the insurgency? Are you implying the US is above using such dirty tactics?

[Scientist]

How do you know those behind aren't clients for the US, for the use of undermining the insurgency? are you implying the US is above using such dirty tactics?

Well Well Well, another conspiricy thiory, Are you telling me the US will brainwash somebody and tell him to strap a bomb on his waste and trigger it in the middle of the market or where ever?

That is an astonishing claim. Please appologise for insulting our intelegence. This kind of claims became the norm in these days To say the US, or Jews are behind everything(yahuud baa ka danbeysa), We need to grow up ppl, and face our problems head on and stop those who are killing innocents in the name of our beutiful, peaceful Islam, the people who are doing these acts don't need conspiricy thiory, they need to be told what they doing is ANTI-ISLAM and it should stop.

[Haddad]

Originally posted by Ali_BaBa:

Are you telling me the US will brainwash somebody and tell him to strap a bomb on his waste and trigger it in the middle of the market or where ever?

Perhaps you haven't heard about the use of hypnotism or certain drugs that control the mind. The US is far advanced in the research and use of those methods. No, the US doesn't need tell him to strap a bomb on his waste; they will do it for him while under the influence of hypnotism or drugs. Then, they will take him near the middle of the market or where ever.

 

Americans aren't above doing those. Why? Because they are just like the rest of humanity; capable of doing evil. And they can do it easily, because their technology is far advanced.

...stop those who are killing innocents

How do you plan to stop those? With protests, demonstrations or etc? Maybe take arms and fight them?

[Scientist]

Hypnotism Do you really beleive that?,Well I think That is very desperate astonishing claim, Ok say what your implying is true in Iraq, What about the suicide bombers who spread havoc in the Holly land (Saudi Arabia)?, What about the same thing in Pakistan especially the city of Karachi where bombers again spread havoc in the mosques in the middle of prayers, Bro wake up those are fanatics who's aim is to kill whether muslims or not and it will be a very big mistake to justify it or make excuses for it, This is really the peak and the most rediculoes conspiricy thiories I ever heard. What you'r saying is America has the magic to remotly control people's minds.

What is next? America can create human beings? Subxanallah.

How do you plan to stop those......

Well the first step would be to discredit what these fanatics are doing and say what you doing is Anti-Islam and has nothing to do with it. But if we keep throwing one thiory after another then they will just thrive under it. Saying that I Praise those Iraqis who are diffending their land and who are targeting the American millitery, that is a noble and justifieble act.

But other than that its just blind killing,with no objective reason behind it other than Stear Iraq into unpleasant Shea Sunni civil war.