State Of Confusion

[Jacaylbaro]

Hargeysa, 21 July, 2007 (SL Times) – In a region of hate, instability and constant warfare, the self-proclaimed state of Somaliland stands as a beacon of hope. A functioning democracy, with an elected President, Lower House and appointed Upper House of clan elders, Somaliland has since its declaration of independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991 had one aim: recognition by the international community.

 

This recognition has now become vital to Somaliland’s future, as the likelihood of major oil reserves has given Somalilanders the prospect of a bright future. However, without international recognition the major oil companies will not invest, with the result that the oil will remain in the ground and Somaliland will be unable to invest in its future.

 

Minister of Natural Resources Qasim Yusuf has spent much of his time attempting to woo the multinationals. Prior to the break up of Somalia the oil companies were active in the region, but pulled out during the fighting and have not returned. The Minister is desperate for them to return, and to bring their surveys with them. And yet the only response he has had has been the comment from one of the multinationals that once Somaliland is recognised by a state that is itself a member of the United Nations then they will consider recommencing their surveys. In the meantime the burden of proving oil supplies rests with Somalilanders themselves, and this in a state than receives little direct overseas aid, has no external debt, and has little or no industry outside of the export of cattle to the Gulf.

 

MP Abdi Jamma believes the British government should take the lead in recognising Somaliland, citing the colonial past and the close links between the two countries. These links can be seen throughout the capital Hargeysa; the military cemetery, with the graves of the Black Watch mixed with local soldiers who fought the Italians in the last war, the now crumbling colonial State House and the India Line, which housed the Asian civil service clerks during the years of the Protectorate. There is a constant theme from the political elite – when will Britain take the lead; why are we deserting Somaliland when Somaliland supported Britain without question in the last war?

 

Somalilanders refer to “British” Somaliland. It was a protectorate until 1960, when it was granted independence. Somaliland immediately agreed to enter a union with Italian Somalia, and a greater Somalia was born. Having voluntarily entered this union, things began to go wrong: twenty years of union in which the Somaliland north was marginalised, a vicious battle fought against the authoritarian then President Siyad Barre, and ultimately Somaliland independence proclaimed. Very soon thereafter democratic institutions were formed, elections held (and validated by international observers), and stability reigned while chaos, violence and clan based fighting raged in the rest of Somalia. And yet the international community chooses to ignore the claims of Somaliland, and instead concentrate on the rest of Somalia.

 

Still today most aid is directed to Somalia; local businessman Abdi Yassan suggests “the international community rewards the naughty child, but ignores and punishes the well-behaved”.

 

So what are the chances of Somaliland being recognised? Alun Michael, Chair of the All Party Parliamentary Committee on Somaliland argues that the decision to recognise Somaliland is a decision that must be taken by Africans. UK policy is to support decisions made by regional partners, and not to take the lead. He points out that Britain has supported Somaliland‘s quest for independence already, in 1960 – now it is time for Africans to agree a away forward.

 

This is pretty much the British and EU line, and there is some hope that states such as South Africa are moving toward recognition. However, Somaliland’s neighbours have their own problems and interests – Ethiopia has internal opposition and a border conflict with Eritrea, Sudan has Darfur, and all have interests in Somalia. The Africa Union meeting in Accra maintained the line that recognition for Somaliland would open a “Pandora’s box”, and that recognition may even be contrary to United Nations resolutions. In Europe Sweden has taken a slightly different route, in stating that it will treat Somaliland as if it were a recognised state, but this is still short of the full recognition craved and needed.

 

Within Europe the preference would be for all Somali’s to agree their future, and there have been a number of conferences sponsored by neighbouring states to this end. Clan based interests have dominated those discussions, which have generally been boycotted by the Somaliland authorities. In addition, the internationally recognised but internally unpopular government of Somalia, the Transitional Federal Government, is headed by Colonel Abdillahi Yusuf, who many in Somaliland regard as a war criminal. It is therefore difficult to see who exactly the politicians in Somaliland can discuss their future with, and as Mogadishu descends even further into total anarchy the prospect of a Somali led consensus on the future of the country recedes further into the distance. The Somaliland government is pushed to attend the reconciliation conference, but international monitors fail to attend because of security fears. The problem is that there is no consistency in the international approach.

 

Progress will not happen overnight, and the longer the wait the more the pressure builds on Somaliland’s democratic structures. In the absence of an international role the temptation is for the politicians to turn on each other. The opposition have been concerned that next year’s Presidential elections may be delayed, and approval for the budget has been delayed as the various parties flex their muscles. Three opposition journalists were jailed earlier this year after making allegations of corruption against the President and his family, and although now released this has heightened concern that democratic principles are under threat. The constitution limits the number of political parties to three, but in the last month a new party has been formed – the Minister of the Interior has declared this illegal, and threatened to prosecute.

 

Whilst all of this may be posturing by both the government and the opposition, there is a sense of suspicion and cynicism in the air. It is as if the country has come as far as it can without international recognition, and is now turning in on itself.

 

Fighting has also broken out on its eastern border in a territorial dispute with semi-autonomous Puntland. The fighting has already cost the Minister of Defence his job, and scarce resources are now being expended in this escalating conflict.

 

A burgeoning oil industry would take much of the pressure off, but this can only come about with international recognition. Somaliland is an amazing country – peace, democracy and rule of law in a region where this is virtually unknown. No foreign aid to speak of, real poverty, a country still devastated by civil war, towns contaminated by the Soviet presence of thirty years ago, minefields and unexploded bombs from any number of conflicts being moved around the countryside by flash floods. And yet debate still take place in Parliament, the clan leaders support the democratic process, and despite the chaos and anarchy on its borders, Somaliland remains, in the words of Qasim Yusuf, an “oasis of calm”.

 

Oil money will transform Somaliland – the question is, will this oil be the incentive for the international community to finally bestow statehood on a country that has met every standard that we hope for in Africa? As President Rayaale argues, “justice delayed is justice denied”.