Montenegro in independence vote : A Case to Watch

[Suldaanka]

Montenegro is voting today as what many citizens regard as the most important Day in their recent history. They want to dissolve the union it had with Serbia.

 

But here are the interesting facts.

 

1. Montenegro is voting for Referendum on Independence without Belgrade's approval and opposition.

 

2. Montenegro has been an autonomous state and has been using a different currency to that of Serbia since 2002.

 

3. There are minority groups of different ethnic backgrounds, including ethnic Serbs who are adamant about maintaining their union with their Serbian brothren.

 

4. The Pro Independence Movement led by the Prime Minister of Montenegro is looking for at least 55% to vote in favour for independence inorder to become the newest country in Europe and in the world for that matter.

 

So far the voting is progressing nicely and reports suggest that the Serbs in the North have come out strongly trying to derail the independence movement. But observers are forcasting a strong Pro Independence result.

 

Montenegro referendum easily meets turnout rule

[Suldaanka]

It looks like Montenegro has formally dissolved the union with Serbia in a small margin of just over the required 55%.

 

 

BBC Montenegro chooses independence

Bloomberg Montenegrin Voters Approve Split From Serbia, Committee Says

CNNI Montenegro chooses independence

[Baashi]

And why should we pay attention to this case SL prince? My bad umhh yeah there is an analogy btw our case and that of former Yoguslavia eh

 

Oops! everybody duck here comes Tolstoy and Oodweyne and their blinding over-stretched analysis of how this case has bearing on our corner Bring it on I say

 

Nah! I'm busy today but I get a minute or two to touch a nerve or two and make my buddy Oodweyne's day a lil more exciting.

[Suldaanka]

^

 

Awoowe, good to see that you were following the news. You see how easy its to dissolve a union? it just took hours counting the ballets. Waxaas ayaa aduun hore maray ah.

 

We can indeed draw parallels between the two doomed projects of Somaliweyn and the Yoguslavia one. Both led to the internal disintegeration and ethnic/clan strive. Both failed. Both are history and exist no more.

 

We see how the Unionists in Montenegro and Belgrade have swallowed their hopes after they were defeated. Likewise, as the Referendum of 2001 in Somaliland shows the overwhelming majority are in favour of independence, and will win hands down in any new Referendum, if you are not still convinced by that. So here is the challenge Baashow, Will our own Unionists be brave enough and accept the faith accompli? Mise waa is xagxaganna, oo daciifnimoda afrikaanka ayaynu prove garaynaa? Oo waxaynu ka dhignaa arinka; nimaan shantaadaasi kaa reebin sharci kaama reebo.

[Castro]

Suldaanow, what strategic value do the Montenegrin elites see in secession? How is that aligned with Somaliland's elite?

[Baashi]

As Xiin said the other day Suldaan is no boolo Along Ayoub, Oodweyne, and Tolstoy he is indeed a mouth to reckon with

 

Awoowe xaasha is xagxaganmeyno. Let's be civilized about this and do the right thang aight. Let's ask Puntland areas that Somaliland has claimed as part of its country ask if they want to secede. What's good for the gander is also good for the gooze kinda deal. Fair? What say you Prince of SL?

 

I'm not for anyone seceding in any form or dhape whatsoever. I just want you to tast your own medicine the pill you recommended other Somalis should swallow for their own good

[Suldaanka]

I am sure you are not one of those who beleieve that SOOL and SANAAG are inhabited only by a certain clan that do not support Somaliland. So, if I might ask you, where exactly does this clan border that Puntland claims go through? Can it be defined? I only know a clan border which overlaps one another and continously shifts. You dodged many of my questions ealier, I await that you'll answer this one for me, Awoowe.

 

Awoowe, Somaliland is claiming the borders that it inherited by the time it recieved its independence on 26 June 1960. This border is internationally known and is well defined.

 

Awoowe, being civilised includes respecting how the world works and not how you think it works. In your opinion, you think the 44% of Montenegroens that voted "NO" are entitled to have a crack at their very own Referendum just to prove that "100%" of the "44%" are still voting for "NO"? cajiib :eek:

 

 

Castro

My old man, I think that question can only be answered by a native of that country. I can only talk about the obvious reality, which is that the majority of them see their future as an independent country. How, you ask them.

[Castro]

^ That's fair.

[Baashi]

Well let's start with Montenegro. The 44% who voted NO have taken part of the voting process which means they recognize the authority of Montenegro as a legitimate government for Montegnerians No?

 

Well in the SSC case not only did they reject the clan authority of "duriyada" as their political representative of their corner but they have also boycotted the referendum you keep reminding us everytime this issue comes up.

 

How you delineate the clan border? Exactly! Now you are now thinking buddy. How the hell do you demarcate a clannish border is the million dollar question? But have Hargeisa secessionists ever bothered answering this question? No.

 

Awoowe Somalia insist preserving its territorial integrity in spite of current political turmoil that engulfed the state. Surprisingly enough international community agrees Somalia on this assertion. May I remind you that even Ethiopia of all countries have been compelleed to clarify and make public statement on the status of its commercial attachee in Berbera.

 

Talk about being civilized and what not and respecting international norms well look at you buddy! Why can't you respect the fact that Somalia is a country in turmoil and anyone who wants to dismember in violation of international rules is a deviant numero uno

 

By all means build the region, advance the peace, develop, invest, build the civic institution, wave the flag, and what have you but for crying out loud don't declare a unilateral separation and drag along entire communities who want to stay with their brethren. Don't speak on their behalf thank you they can and do speak for themselves loud and clear and don't tell me you doing this because you have been colonized by the same white b a s t a r d. This is unbecoming of you Suldaanoow!

 

These folks don't want to be reminded that shameful period of their hiostory let alone using colonial era as justification for seceding from the rest of the country.

[Suldaanka]

^^LOL

Sheekaddaadu waa aan is xagxagano.

 

How you delineate the clan border? Exactly! Now you are now thinking buddy. How the hell do you demarcate a clannish border is the million dollar question? But have Hargeisa secessionists ever bothered answering this question? No.

I expected an answer from you Awoowe, what is this? You brought it forth as "a point", now you don't have an answer. Cajiib.

 

It is not Hargeisa which is claiming clan borders, its the Puntland that you were talking about.

 

Well let's start with Montenegro. The 44% who voted NO have taken part of the voting process which means they recognize the authority of Montenegro as a legitimate government for Montegnerians No?

Awoowe, there was a reason for the "50%" voter turn-out rule which was put in place to avoid a situation whereby the "44%" would claim it didn't participate. What this "50%" voter turn-out rule does is that, you don't have to vote, you can boycott, and only if there are sufficient numbers (50.1% or more) then you can delegitimise the whole Referendum process. But so long as 50% of voters or more participate in the voting, the result becomes binding.

 

The Somaliland Referendum was similar.

 

 

Awoowe Somalia insist preserving its territorial integrity in spite of current political turmoil that engulfed the state. Surprisingly enough international community agrees Somalia on this assertion. May I remind you that even Ethiopia of all countries have been compelleed to clarify and make public statement on the status of its commercial attachee in Berbera

It was Betros Ghaali (The Egyptian the former UN SG) who added that clause into the UN resolution in the early 1990s. And it was not for Somalia's sake he done that, it was more to do with the geo-politics of which his country wanted to maintain a foothold.

 

Anways, that is old and doesn't reflect on the reality out there. The current UN SG, albet slow, has mandated his Rep to Somalia/Somaliland - the

"Questions of Somaliland". That indeed shows things are changing.

 

As for, Ethiopia is playing politics. It wants to have a foot'n in all aspects and please everyone. What it does is more relevant than what it says. The PM said something some years ago to the effect "Ethiopia will not be the first, and not the third"...

 

By all means build the region, advance the peace, develop, invest, build the civic institution, wave the flag, and what have you but for crying out loud don't declare a unilateral separation and drag along entire communities who want to stay with their brethren. Don't speak on their behalf thank you they can and do speak for themselves loud and clear and don't tell me you doing this because you have been colonized by the same white b a s t a r d. This is unbecoming of you Suldaanoow!

 

These folks don't want to be reminded that shameful period of their hiostory let alone using colonial era as justification for seceding from the rest of the country.

Preposterous!! Awoowe, who said we were going back to colonialism? June 26 1960 is about the fall of colonialism and the gaining of independence.

[ElPunto]

^I don't get it. What makes a political entity that is capable of holding a referundum? There is no recognized state of Somaliland as was the case with Serbia & Montenegro(a title officially designated to the country in international recognition of its two constituent parts). So that means that the state as officially exists is one state, Somalia. So if 51%+ of Somalis voted(in the future, of course) in Somalia that no region/territory may secede - will Somalilanders accept that? And what if Sool/Sanag held a referundum wanting to secede from Somaliland and rejoin Somalia - would Somalilanders accept that? I doubt anyone has full answers to those questions. I think the situation in Somalia/Somalliand is more complicated than the one implied by Montenegro.

[Baashi]

loooooooool@ Betros Qhaali added that clause to UN resolution for his native country's sake. Now this is funny. Waryee sow addiga dhex fariistay awoowe Dang! Oh How mighty Betros has been in his days on the throne eh

 

Suldaan respect of territorial integraty of independent member states has been an integral part of UN charter since early seventies.

 

In regards of the question: how you demarcate a clannish border well I gotta tell ya straight up it is very difficult task to accomplish. Which begs the question where the hell is the Puntland border ? Ahem

 

Puntland authorities maintain that current clan territories be used as starting point. Puntland also claims that all ***** -inhabited areas as the exclusive domain of Puntalnd state. Also PL authorities proposed that the resolution of disputed (by clans) areas as well as shared areas such as Ceeri Gaabo city be postoponed to later unespecified date.

 

SL authorities stick to the former British Protectorate territories being under their jurisdiction a claim they base solely on the colonial era not the actualities on the ground.

 

The challenge is what country in the world would dismiss Puntlands claims and under what ground? Why would any country take sides in a dispute between two recovery zones that enjoy relative peace and seem to be doing well under the status quo.

 

Open this Pandora box and there is no way of getting the genie back into the bottle. The fact that no one is even mediating between them speaks volumes of how low key the whole issue realy has been in the eyes of the powers that be.

 

Back to Montenegro analogy. Yoguslavia is not contesting the Montenegro's right to secede whereas Somalia is contesting the SL's right to secede. Montenegreans despite their political differences seem to accept the Montenegro's government as legitimate authority. This is not the case in our neck of the wood buddy.

 

War biyooy wiilka waa na xiijiyay

[SL eyes]

Helloooo Brothers & sisters

 

New SOMALILNDER In the HOUSE

 

 

Montenegro and Somaliland Case are the same

 

Hope the world would understand that and recognize somaliland ASAP

 

 

Somaliland Eyes

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Suldaanka

"But here are the interesting facts."

 

"1. Montenegro is voting for Referendum on Independence without Belgrade's approval and opposition." This is not a fact. In a fact MOntenegro and Serbia agreed that this referendum could conducted by either state after three years, which is now. One big diiference between "Somaliland" and Montenegro

 

"2. Montenegro has been an autonomous state and has been using a different currency to that of Serbia since 2002." Another difference in that Somali has only one legal currency.

 

"3. There are minority groups of different ethnic backgrounds, including ethnic Serbs who are adamant about maintaining their union with their Serbian brothren." Somalis are of the same ethnicity unlike the people of the Bulkans.

 

"Will our own Unionists be brave enough and accept the faith accompli?" A big no but Will secessionist be brave enough and accept the fait accompli?

 

"I am sure you are not one of those who beleieve that SOOL and SANAAG are inhabited only by a certain clan that do not support Somaliland." though it was not addressed to me let me answer and say not Sool and Sanaag but also cayn do belong to clans that are against secession and for Somaliwein.

"So, if I might ask you, where exactly does this clan border that Puntland claims go through?" Buhoodle district, Sool, Sanaag maybe.

 

"Can it be defined? I only know a clan border which overlaps one another and continously shifts." The English made treaties with clans/tribes whose territories were and are defined not some entity called Somaliland. What binds these tribes/clans together into a modern state when they had nothing to do with each other aside from them all being colonized by another state.

 

Mr. Oodweyne

First let me offer a "little brotherly advise" and say attack ideas not people.

 

"Firstly...suppose that the government of Serbia were to reject that outcome ... what Serbia could do about it.... the short answer would be, nothing ...short of going for war in... and that ...is not within the realm of possibility...due to the political wind of the present-time."

 

Serbia would be absurd not to comply with agreements that it made with Montenegro not because it could not (I am just not aware of the " political wind of the present-time" you speak of becouse the worlds police is busy with iraq and Afghanistan but that is another arguement) but it has no reasons to not comply.

 

"...suppose...that the large Minority...that is in favour for the continuation of the union...were to say, we do not accept... the annulment of the existing union...answer...they either start a war in the regions that they inhabits...or they can acquiesce with that established facts on the ground..."

 

A true Wadani does not consider the dismemberment of their country mere facts on the ground. Further more, options would not be limited to starting a war in their regions but would include taken up arms against secessionist where ever they may be found and taking back their country. Believe it or not, one one who truly believes in what he is fighting for can be stronger than a hundred. Also, Serbians or unionist Somalis (I believe this is were the comparison is being made) are far from the a minority when you consider the whole state and not substates.

 

"...if one is not so sure as to the correctness of that statement...you can ask the nearest EU’s diplomatic office in anywhere in the world; or perhaps State Department office in Washington, or even the US’s embassies across the world...in so far as the legal correctness of that Somaliland’s referendum of 2001 is concern; as well as whether that “Referendum†had essentially nullified the non-existing union of the 1960 merger between the then State of Somaliland and Somalia State." I fail to undersatand what diplomatic offices, State Department office in Washington, or even the US’s embassies have to do with the legality of an independence referendum (No such thing took place, it was a referndum on a constitution) in Somalia. Even so, if things are clear to these "offices" as you make them out to be, why have they not recognized "Somaliland".

 

"...there are no ground of appeal...towards Somaliland’s legal re-affirmation of here independence; but given that there no effective government that is functioning in Somalia...there is no avenue that is open...to be...representing Somalia in that eventual table, to formally dissolve that dead political union in amicable manner." This lack of government that you suggest is why there is no avanue open to this government and future ones is for discussion about a unionis precisely why there is also no avanue for secession also.

 

"Secondly, if...Somalia were to dispute the legal correctness of that argument...on the ground that certain section..haven’t took part in...referendum, then that would only be an argument that shall consist of...a boundary arrangement...much like the case between the Eritrea and Ethiopia..."

Yet the miscomparisons cantinue. Ethiopia let Eriteria go but had border desputes, Serbia agreed to let Montenegro go if a referendum calling secession succeded. No such things have happened in Somalia. Furthe more, If (and there are way to many ifs) Somalia is despute a referendum because a lot people did not participate, it would not be a boundry despute as you put it but the existence of the hypothetical state.

 

"Thirdly, suppose that Somalia is still not satisfy with that argument, and it’s even denying the right of Somaliland to exist, let alone to independence republic by the name of Somaliland(with boundary re-arrangement to it’s eastern side of the border between Somalia and Somaliland); then in that case, the matter will leave the negotiation table, and in things will have to be settle in the all fashion way; namely, in the battlefield of those dust-bowl regions between Somaliland and Somalia;" I am afriad that is the case but I wonder, if Sanaag (One of the most beautiful regions of Somalia and among the few untouched by civil war) is part of "dust-bowl regions" as you put it, what the mars like and destitute regions of waqoye galbed and northern togdhere could be called.

 

"Fourthly, suppose that it comes to passed that the case were to became apparent that none of these legal argument is cutting muster with who ever representing Somalia in that eventual table; particular if the tone of the Anti-Somaliland’s brigade is any guide as to what their eventual position will be; then in that case, as we may suspect all along from the tones of the Somali-weyn’s believers, we are more than happy to settle matters in the old fashion way of blood-and-guts."

Let me asure you that true wadanis, darwiish will be even more happy to oblige.

 

"...suppose that this TFG of the present-time goes the same way as that of the Arta’s TNG...the question will be...what that ...may mean for Somaliland’s legal quest of her independence...answer will be...will be automatically granted by those same “powers-that-beâ€(who have used the absence of an effective government from Somalia, as a ploy to keep this non-existing and fictitious union on the road, till some sort of a government may be cobbled together for Somalia, that can negotiate with us, in a jointly-agreed separation).

these “powers-that-be†seeem to be everywhere, you would think with such omnipotence, there would be less problems in the world. Forgive me but I am agian confused. these “powers-that-be†" who have used the absence of an effective government from Somalia, as a ploy to keep this non-existing and fictitious union on the road" will also grant Somaliland independance automatically? which one is it because they can't be working towards to opposing ends.

 

"Therefore, the argument, as they have intimated to us; would be that given that there is no credible partner on the other side(i.e., from Somalia), to whom one can negotiate with, when it comes to a formal separation of dissolving the said dead union; and hence, in that eventuality the case of Somaliland’s will be even more easier to handle, as least from the perspective of those same “powers-that-beâ€, than what it could have been hitherto, if the case itself hinges on a negotiated separation between two entities, with all of the complications of border demarcation that will entailed in it’s wake. " 16 years and counting but if you still have hope, go a ahead.

 

"And Finally, it’s incumbent on all of us, in this sort of discussion, to bring a clarity of thought... as opposed to borrowing a sheer insensible argument from thin-air... therefore one would be well advised to argue whatever his case it may be, in a manner that both shall do justice to the intellect of his interlocutors as well as the inherent seriousness of the argument itself in it’s entire" Clarity indeed. I could not agree more but would like add that people attempt to express themselfs in a way that is not unnecessarily convoluted. clarity is the best policy and remember that the point of communication is to understand each other.

 

Lastly, If I may forward my own suggestion, isku xeshoda. Our ancestors must be turning in their graves. as a northern Somali i am ashamed of these secessionist as i am sure our grand fathers who fought for the liberation of our people would be. It is told that when British agents asked the Sayid to pay tax at Berbera, he asked that they pay, for they were in his country. Very few people like that existed in the colonized world. be proud of that instead of being "the orphans" of some foreign queen who colonized you. It is no secret that northerners were at the forefront for not only the fight to liberate our people but also our unity. It was the same old politicians (Egal among others) who run to mogadishu at the independence of the north without thinking when the late Garaad Ali to told them wait a little who told him "Laa Yaa Garaad" and than returned to call for secession almost fourty years later. How ironic and shameful for their children today to cheerlead for the dismemberment of their nation?

[bakkie]

The End Of The Warlord Era And The Embagatti Outfit!

 

Good news at least temporarily for the terrorized masses of Mogadishu. A defeating blow to all knids of warlords including Abdillahi Yususf, currently holed up in Baidawa. This is a devastating blow to the cowardly Mogadishu warlords, who flee from their posts and weapanry. A crushing defeat for the advocates of the long lost cause-the so-called Somali-Weyn. One Rear Hamar writer is advocting the change of the name Somalia because he call it a clannish and racist name. Yesteryear's clannist are todays uniionists. That doesn't add up. Did they became overnight unionist to cover their long term clanish agenda. But the bad news is they can't deceive any one today. The temporary victory for the Islamists is another chapter in the endless saga of what was left of the former Somalia.

 

Prediction

 

The Islamist may takeover all Southern Somalia in a month or two. They will declare an Islamic government. The US may intervene and the rest is history. The Republic of Somaliland will be recognized.