NGONGE Posted October 16, 2007 The future generations, like the ones before them, will blame reer hebel, BiLaal dee naga daa this guaranteeing of the future stuff! I am inclining towards Paragon’s argument. However, the only caveat I may add is in the understanding. Only if these enclaves UNDERSTAND and have a clear vision of what they want would I feel comfortable in supporting them. My reluctance to fully support my home of Somaliland is borne out of my belief that they don’t know what they’re doing. My rejection of the Courts was also as a result of realising that they too had no idea of what they were doing. I need not explain my opposition to the TFG. If one group can sell me an reasonable argument, a well thought position and an acceptable policy I’ll be more than happy to favour them over all the rest. Life would have been much easier of course if I were like a romantic teenage girl that would fall for the first juicy line dropped her way. Having said all of that, and to counter you and Xiin, why may I ask are you against the TFG? After all, with their Ethiopian military backers, Saudi money and American support they (of all the other players in this arena) are the most able to bring your beloved Somalia back on its feet (whilst skimming some of the monetary aid and funds, but is that too much of a price to begrudge if they bring Somalia back)? There have to be a method to this madness yaa naas. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Khalaf Posted October 16, 2007 Bilal u said: Khalaf - SOL members may not be policy makers but they are Somalis. Its not my intention to raise their ego. I abhor any Somali, at this critical stage of our history, who blindly follows the line of his/her tribe. I'm simply trying to awaken them to their illogical stance at this grave hour. Sxbow talk is cheap they say....marka warkaa badan aaan iska daafno. Either give ppl a better alternative they can follow, or let them be as they are. ps: This nonsense in somalia sooner or later will come to an end...if they want they can continue wars and conflicts for another 30 years, let them be or give a working alternative. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BiLaaL Posted October 16, 2007 Ngonge, we are not so engrossed in the concept of a unified Somalia that we are willing to do away with our deeply held notion of justice. The TFG has Somali blood on its hands and is not principled enough. The Somalia republic is too precious for us to trust it with a bunch of capitalist traitors. Plus, they're too controversial to act as a uniting voice even if they were to be successful in reviving the Somali republic in some form. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BiLaaL Posted October 16, 2007 Khalaf - The alternative is for them to do away with their clans and turn their attention to being proper citizens of the Somali state. They're not stateless people now but they will be soon, if they don't change their ways. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Khalaf Posted October 16, 2007 Bilal my good brother, inshallah that may happen maybe in next hundred years. On a serious note we alreadly are a stateless ppl sxb, somalia state la'aan waxba ma dhaanto its a garbage country....i have always said and will say it again no somali is happy with the status quo and these tribal conflicts....they are stuck in ganglands sxb and they need freedom from it. We all know that or at least should know that....but where are the ppl to free somalia is the million doller question. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar Posted October 17, 2007 Bilaal, dadaalkaaga Eebba hakuu garabgalo. Your positive views of Soomaalinimo in this dark, historically low era of Soomaalinimo -- Soomaalis one day will appreciate, heck salute and honour you by building a taalo, for men like you. You and your daljecelnimo thoughts are worth more than a thousand qabyaalad-induced, clanish Soomaalis. It is easy to be a pessimistic in Soomaali affairs in this hardening, trying times. Keep the positive spirit and hope of Soomaalinimo up. Always. To the xabaalaha. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rudy-Diiriye Posted October 17, 2007 my fav quote..If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck . . . and all hear is wack wack, then most probably, its a somali phalitican or their clan cheerleaders. i wish, i could gather the whole trash, burn them and make a big barn fire and let the ppl dance in circle around it like Red indian pow wow dance. Bunch of losers. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NGONGE Posted October 17, 2007 Originally posted by BiLaaL: Ngonge, we are not so engrossed in the concept of a unified Somalia that we are willing to do away with our deeply held notion of justice. The TFG has Somali blood on its hands and is not principled enough. The Somalia republic is too precious for us to trust it with a bunch of capitalist traitors. Plus, they're too controversial to act as a uniting voice even if they were to be successful in reviving the Somali republic in some form. All sides have blood on their hands, saaxib! Sometimes I really wonder if you’re at all serious. What is it you are after, Perfection? If that’s what you’re after I’ll seriously advice you to take MMA’s unintended advice and keep on dreaming until you reach your grave. I truly don’t believe you know what you want (and that’s not just you alone). It sounds to me that you’re only rejecting the TFG because they invited the Ethiopians to invade Somalia and, to you, this casts a huge, ugly and unacceptable shadow over any potential that the TFG may have! Yet the TFG is the only group that can boast (rightly or wrongly) of containing members of all Somali clans and groupings. It’s the only side that has the financial and military muscle and in addition to that it also has the support of a large part of Somalia (if you look at Puntland and the southern parts of Somalia, excluding the whole capital of course). If it is logic you are after then the TFG is your best bet here. However, if it is heroes in shinning armour that you’re after then pick a fairy book I’d say ps Might as well confuse you now and tell you that I am not a TFG fan. With no emotional detachment to Somalia, I have the luxury of sitting back and bidding my time until one group sways me with its style, vision and integrity. You are not as detached; you are angry and want to choose a side that will rescue your beloved Somalia. I really can’t see why you’re wasting your time with dead ends instead of backing the only viable authority in the land. Think it over my friend. Nothing else makes more sense. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fabregas Posted October 17, 2007 Might as well confuse you now and tell you that I am not a TFG fan. We believe you, dont worry mate. BTW, your analysis of the T.F.G is wrong. They are built on rival clan militias that were only unified against defeating the I.C.U. We are seeing and will see these militas split up in spectacular vision. Abdullahi Yusuf, nor Geedi nor the militas of Bare Hiraale are united in a common vision for Somalia. The only thing that is stopping these militias from engaging in full scale civil war is the Ethiopian security presence. Puntland is already starting to see splits within a subclan militias ally themselves with Somaliland and there is the Makhir state. Thus the alleged support of Puntland means not a great deal. Cadde Muse, Geedi and Hiraale were or are part and parcel of the T.F.G but they are indeed enemies. There only interest is benefitng their families and acquiring resources. Lastly, the T.F.G doesnt have the military or political resources within Muqdisho to quell the insurgency. Ethiopia nor the T.F.G can defeat the clan insurgents or the I.C.U militias. There will be a power struggle as Hizbul Shabaab militias regroup in the south and has rival clans allied to the T.F.G fight for control. Yes they have America, Ethiopia and Saudi Oil money, but nobody has the formula to stop or curb Somali clan fighting without upsetting one clan miltia or ideological militia. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NGONGE Posted October 17, 2007 Heh. I liked the bit you quoted me on. Knew it would confuse you. The rest of your words miss the point entirely. Nobody is arguing that the TFG does not have problems or is not divided dear friend. Rather, since our brother above wants Somalia to be put back together again, the argument is that the TFG is his best bet (if a Republic of Somalia is his ultimate aim). After all, it ticks all the points that dreamers like he and MMA demand. It has representatives from all parts of Somalia, it controls their beloved capital, it does not wish to secede and it has international backing. On paper at least, the chances of it succeeding are infinitely higher than those of the Asmara group or any other grouping within Somalia are! Again, keep your eyes on the ball: they want Somalia back! They don’t care for any clannish sentiments, regional self-interest or any of that other hogwash that is irking other Somalis. Theirs is purely a nationalistic wish. Therefore, it stands to reason that they should support the TFG. If they don’t then it really means that they’re either lying or they just don’t really know what they want. Having read much of their contributions here, I am of the opinion that they’re not lying (and this is no praise by the way). You see, even those that follow their own clans and explicitly supportive of their clans (such as Duke and Horn) know what they want. They’ve thought about it and reached a clear conclusion (the morality of such a conclusion does not matter really). The Somaliland fans also know what they want (though, sadly, they lack the right leaders to deliver it for them). But there are millions of others (and many here in these forums) that have no idea of what they want. They disagree with all sides but still get worked up and emotional over the simplest of issues! Are they being neutral then? Surely a neutral would be nonchalant about the entire hullabaloo and wouldn’t give a fig about one political group’s transgressions over another! Kindly note that this does not involve feeling sad for the death of civilians or sympathising with people being displaced from their homes. I don’t particularly like the TFG and do believe it contains some of the most despicable individuals in Somali politics today, but, when looking at things objectively, dispassionately and without prejudice I believe them to stand head and shoulders above any of the alternatives on the ground. Ps The TFG and Ethiopia don’t have the military and political resources to defeat the ragtag Shabaab? Now that’s a revelation I would enjoy reading you expand on. Go ahead, oblige me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BiLaaL Posted October 17, 2007 ^I may sometimes come across as a hopeless optimist but I assure you that this is a misguided perception on the part of others. My own ideas are straightforward and sensible. There is an unhealthy tendency, in this forum, for anyone advancing the concept of Somali unity to be frowned upon and dismissed. I shall keep Paragon’s earlier advice in mind from now on. Am I serious about the ideas that I espouse in this forum? Absolutely. Is it perfection that I’m after? No. You accuse me of not knowing what I want. Exactly how did you come to that conclusion? Is it because I refuse to endorse the TFG? I do not reject the TFG simply because of their facilitation of the Ethiopian occupation. The TFG has numerous other deficiencies; none of which require much delineation. The TFG doesn’t have my support because I know it will not be able to fulfil the goal of reviving the Somali state. If the TFG were composed of technocrats, however corrupt, and were it not to have allowed the occupation of its own territory, then I would have supported them. I don’t deny that the TFG has some definite positives. Yes, they do have military muscle, albeit a foreign one; financial aid from some quarters, although it’s quickly drying up, and of course unqualified recognition internationally. I do, however, have reservations on the claim that it has support in large parts of Somalia. You’ve summoned your energy on the argument that logic dictates that I support the TFG. In fact, its logic which pushes me away from the TFG. Despite the postives you’ve listed, the TFG lacks the biggest drawcard of all. The support of the Somali public. Perhaps the Somali public and their wishes don’t mean much to you. Lets face it, exactly who cares about it these days? Everyone shifts it aside, so why not join the bandwagon, right? Well, I happen to differ. Perhaps, this is one of the reasons why some of my ideas appear hopelessly optimistic. Because I care about the wishes of the average Somali. That seemingly invisible being, is highly visible in my eyes. I do care about the wishes of the widows of Hodan and the youth of Yaqshid and indeed of Somalis all over the country. In their eyes, the TFG was dead on arrival. Your talk centres on political expediency. It is this that you call me to. As your argument goes, why not support the most visible sign of a Somali state in over a decade. Hell why care, if your aim is for the formation of the Somali state. The love for my country and, above it my people, bars me from following your logic. I would be injuring the sacrifice of our former freedom fighters. Supporting the TFG simply because it has foreign backing while dismissing the wishes of the very people it’s suppose to represent is incompatible with my ideals. I don’t mean to sound rude, but your logic is devoid of wisdom. Yes, mine is a nationalistic wish but by no means a blind one. I believe we can and will get back our Somali republic but not via the likes of the TFG. Finally, let me attempt to address your oft-repeated question –what do I want. This is by no means an exhaustive list, since your question is vague. Put simply, I want the formation of a strong, truly independent Somali state. One which is free of outside interference; one which truly cares about its people and reverses the worth of the Somali in the eyes of the World; one which takes steps to address the plague of tribalism in order to ensure its chaos never gets repeated; one which provides universal education and health care and manages its resources wisely; one which doesn’t abandon its fellow citizens in the occupied regions but assists (not necessarily by force) them in their campaign for self-determination. If your above question is aimed at the rather separate question of ‘how do we get there’? Then I would say this. Not by deviating from the ideals of our culture and of our religion. If that is too vague a reply, then perhaps you should rephrase your question. Talking of pragmatism? What is more pragmatic than the path taken by likes of MMA, when he overlooks his desire for his long-awaited blue flag and rather chooses, out of principle, to endure with patience. Surely, his great love for the revival of the Somali state should have pushed him in the arms of the TFG right? Saxib, the logic which you wish to apply is much too simplistic. Dare I say, your supposed emotional detachment doesn’t seem to have helped your judgment. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fabregas Posted October 18, 2007 Ps The TFG and Ethiopia don’t have the military and political resources to defeat the ragtag Shabaab? Now that’s a revelation I would enjoy reading you expand on. Go ahead, oblige me. Maybe I used the wrong words, they certainly dont have the knowhow or skills needed to enforce such a grand task. But yes they have the financial clout and the military muscle. Firstly, time is against them. It hass already been some 8 months or more that the Ethiopians invaded Somalia. These ragtag Shabads defeated the more heavily armed Warlords in the space of a few months. This was probably due the support of the local population and ideological zeal of the young men. I mean a man who rises up in the Fajr prayer prepared war and one who is probably still awake chewing Khat from last night arent going to going to fight the same way. This victory made the Ethiopians step into the scene. One could say that the militias of the I.C.U entered in this battle in the wrong way. Nevertheless,it is reported even with Ethiopian help the Shabaabs were very very close to entering Badioa itself and taking that city. However the Americans came into action and they were ill prepared for this decisive turn of events. After this many people proclaimed victory and thought these groups were dismantled as the Ethiopians tanks bulldozed their way into major Somali cities. However, we saw three major battles in Muqdisho between various militias and the Ethiopian army. We saw the large scale destruction of Muqdisho and literal flattening of that city. It is reported again by reliable sources that during this battle the Ethiopians couldnt even enter the other side to collect their injured and dead. You saw yourself that their bodies were dragged against Muqdisho streets. This was natural to occur as those troops from Ethiopia and Puntland didnt know there way around Muqdisho back alleys. What does this mean? It means that the several battles and daily attacks in Muqdisho must have taken a pshyical and pshycological impact on the Ethiopian and T.F.G soldiers. As I said before time is against them and so is the other critical factor, that is, History. How long can the Ethiopians stay in Somalia? 2,3,4,5,6 years? Clearly they are a poor African country and cant afford to do so. On the other hand an early exit is again clearly not on the agenda, the damages that this will bring are fairly obvious. Going back tO history. It took the British Empire 22 years to quash meer Somali nomads. They tried every counter insurgenct tactic in the book. They tried to incite other Somali clans against them, bribed their ranks and brought in neighbouring states eg. Abysnia to squash the rebellion. They finally succeded or at least curbed the dervishes out when they relentelessly bombed from the air. This tactic cant work today simply because we are taking about major cities with urban alleyways and hideouts not Somali nomads with little weaponry herding their Camels in open fields. The Americans also failed in Somalia as they found the resistance from entire clans was simply not defeatable without killing or wiping entire Somali subclans. So even the Americans couldnt do what the T.F.G and Ethiopia are trying to do. Yes the Americans could have stayed but that meant killing too many Somalis in the process and it would also mean losing men and draining the morale of their men. Ethiopia is not America nor is Britian nor Israel. She is a poor African country dominated by one tribe attempting to quash various rebellions inside Ethiopia and also with threat of a an enemy next door, namely Eritrea. The country is disunited and there is not one unifying factor of nationalistic zeal at the moment. It cant even defeat ragtag Somali nomads in the Ocaden province. They have sent most of the army into that region and have failed and are being humilated into defeat by armed Somali tribesmen and Islamists. They face the same situation in Muqdisho whereby they have angered entire subclans. Their army is demoralised and the high positions are filled by the Tigray Ethnic groups. There are also countless defections from disgruntled Somalis, Afars and other ethnic groups. Secondly, the Somali insurgents in the Ocaden and Muqdisho have developed a reputation for bravery and notoriety in fighting Ethiopians troops. And this is not my meer propoganda. Here are a few snippets from the international media: quote:Again in 2006, the Meles government, with the full support of US and UK governments, has vowed to crush the ONLF rebellion once and for all, reinforcing the 15 thousand permanent men garrisoned in ******ia with a further: 25 thousand troops, jet fighters, armored cars and some helicopters. Between February and July 2006, the army tried to destroy the rebellion, but failed completely, losing thousands of troops in the process. The ONLF remained undefeated. Why did the government, with such an overwhelming force managed to fail in its plan? They didn’t face more than 5 to 7 thousand ONLF troops through out the region. The answer to this is complex. Above all the ONLF’s strong support base with the local civilian population is key. The systematic brutalization of ****** civilians, and the lack of military discipline and cohesion within government troops is another reason they weren’t defeated. Lastly, there were totally inadequate strategies and tactics employed against the rebels. Indeed, the government has found itself in a sticky spot. Its 250 thousand men army is ill equipped to fight a war on many fronts: against the five active rebel groups operating within Ethiopia’s border, the perpetual tensions on the Eritrean border, and now the rise of Islam in Somalia And: quote:Furthermore, its ranks are racked with desertion, and lack of discipline due to the internal ethnic strife, which reigns from within its units. quote:Meles has given key positions to his own ethnic kin, the Tigray, both in the government, and in the army, making his policies unpopular among lesser Ethnic groups fighting alongside the Tigrays. The officer corps is overwhelmingly from Tigray “terroir”, leaving other ethnic groups less attractive positions within the army. Therefore, blocking any possibilities for them to go up the ladder, the officer corps often uses same ethnic groups to fight each other, pitting Oromos against Oromos, or Sidamas against Sidamas. The poorly led Oromo, Amhara soldier is sometimes forced to desert, finding it unbearable to kill his own kin. As a consequence, a non-negligible amount of government soldiers desert their unit to escape the grueling reality of the ****** front. quote:This is the case of Thomas Gin Ernest an ethnic Hadiyan from Southern Ethiopia, drafted by force into Meles’s army, who decided after serving for six years to desert with a few others to the ONLF. “During our walk to ONLF lines, half of our party changed their minds and returned to the military camp. They were shot for treason soon after” He says this happy to have made the right choice. When captured, Mr. Gin Ernest was given some money so he can go home to his family and be reunited. By treating the prisoners with respect and dignity, the rebels attract more allies to their cause This is the same situation that they are facing In Muqdisho as some media reported: quote:The government forces, because of their Ethiopian troop support, face a coalition of both Islamist and nationalist insurgents. The Ethiopians rarely patrol the city and when they do they lose not only their lives but their boots and anything else the insurgents can use. quote:An Ethiopian army officer was quoted as saying that he and his comrades had fled the ranks of Ethiopian troops in Somalia after a dramatic escalation in fierce fighting with Somali Islamic insurgents. 'quote:I am a member of the Ethiopian army and I took part in toppling the rule of the Islamic courts (in Somalia),' said the officer, identified as Muhammad Hassan. 'quote:We did not expect the fighting to reach this level of fiercity or that it could turn into a guerrilla war,' he said. quote:The officer added that many other Ethiopian troops had decided to flee Somalia after they found themselves stuck amid a 'flaming hell.' Therefore my Question is: with the rise of political Islam and clan rebellions both in the Ocaden and Southern Somalia how long can Zenawi maintain his military presence and defeat his foes? My asnwer is that they nor the T.F.G can defeat these ragtag militas without a proper political agreement on the ground. The wise Napoleon Bonoparte was once asked if he would invade London, his reply was: quote: Those who believe that are blockheads. They do not see the true affair in true light.I can doubtless land in England with 100,000 men. A great battle will be fought, which I shall again; but i must count upon 30,00 men killed, wounded or taken prisoners. If I march on London a second battle will be fought. I shall suppose myself victorious. But what should I do in London with an army of reduced three-fourths recuded and without reinforcements? It would be madness. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NGONGE Posted October 18, 2007 ^^^ Ah! An enjoyable read. Still, they remain in control of the capital and have forced the resistance to resort of some desperate suicide attacks! Not really sure this equates to them being defeated really. The rest of your historical narrative is simple hear say and spin. Were the Ethiopians really going to lose to the Courts if it were not for some American help? You never cease to surprise me with your revelations. BiLaal, The things you’ve listed as wanting are the dreams that almost every Somali has (even duke). But is there anything practical for the here and now? I stand by my logic and repeat that the TFG is the best available option for anyone that claims to want Somali Unity. I am disappointed that you chose to speak for Somali people and are now claiming to know the unknown! Do you see now why I stalk you in such a way? It is this ‘waxa la yadhi’ attitude that riles me. The lack of any dissent towards the federal government in most parts of Somalia (other than half the capital) does not indicate that people are against the TFG. In fact, seeing that Somalis are clannish by nature and that the majority of clan leaders/agitators seem to be on the side of the TFG proves that the majority of people are for that administration rather than against it! Yes, I am going with simple logic again. Luckily the situation is so easy that complex logic was not required. I insist that, based on your words, you still don’t know what you want (I really don’t mean to insult you here). If it were about patience, principles or moral positions you would not be incessantly commenting on the situation in Somalia and praising this group or condemning the other. You would distance yourself from all, and, like many Nomads we have here (mostly females incidentally) offer no political comments other than those related to humanitarian issues. The problem is that you (and others) want to talk politics (heck, MMA is the moderator of the actual section) yet you want to still remain whiter than white, daydream, and condemn all at the same time! Something has to give, boys. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites