The return of clan warlords + Qaad.

[Jabhad]

http://allceeldheer.com/news1732.htm

[Jabhad]

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Editorial: Outside Players

27 December 2006

 

After fifteen years of murderous chaos, Somalia was on the brink of peace. The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) had achieved what the squabbling warlords had failed so signally to do. They had brought stability and an end to violence in the capital Mogadishu and large areas of the country. They had not managed this purely by force of arms. There has been widespread support for their advance simply because of the stability and end to insecurity that they promised. The warlords had had their chance. Even when they finally agreed a government, they were incapable of agreeing on its establishment in Somalia itself; so Somalis were treated to the ridiculous spectacle of a government that could only meet safely on Kenyan soil.

 

 

>From its position of strength, the UIC might reasonably have expected to come to a deal with the rump of the warlords whose toehold in Somalia is around the eastern town of Baidoa. An accommodation might have been reached which could have included the warlords in a new coalition with the UIC pending proper elections. Tragically, as has happened so often in Somalia’s history, outside forces believed they had a vested interest in the country. Ethiopia has long considered Somalia within its sphere of influence, not least as part of its ongoing conflict with Eritrea.

 

 

Thus Addis Ababa has thrown its military weight behind the rump of warlord government in Baidoa. It is widely assumed that for their part, the Eritreans have been assisting the UIC. Ethiopia did itself little service by denying flatly that there were more than a few “military advisers” assisting the warlord government. Within hours, a BBC correspondent had reported seeing a vast convoy of Ethiopian troops and materiel just outside Baidoa. With yesterday’s attack on Mogadishu airport by its jets, Addis Ababa has finally abandoned the lie of noninvolvement.

 

 

There is now fierce fighting in the east of the country with Ethiopian troops directly engaged with UIC forces. Inevitably, the greatest impact of these clashes has been on luckless civilians who are fleeing the fighting. Somalis, stricken first by drought and more recently by floods, are in little position to sustain themselves. Already the International Red Cross is predicting a major refugees exodus and another potential humanitarian disaster.

 

 

Washington is backing the warlords and their Ethiopian protectors because they are certain that the UIC is another Taleban that will harbor and foster Al-Qaeda terrorists. There is once again no attempt to analyze the real nature of the UIC or their outstanding success in a country for so long driven by internal conflict. The Bush White House is yet again driven by a simplistic and racist rationale to confront a Muslim party. The bigotry is reinforced by the fact that the Ethiopians are Christian.

 

 

Such dunderheaded foreign-policy assessments by Washington have already cost tens of thousands of lives. Thanks to this learn-nothing US administration, the price in blood seems set to rise yet further.

 

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7&section=0&article=90438&d=27&m=12&y=2006

[Jabhad]

THE WORLD FROM BERLIN

Ethiopia's Invasion Seen Worsening Somali Chaos

Ethiopia's offensive against the Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia risks plunging the region into a long war which may end up strengthening the Islamists. And if America sees the invasion as a chance to weaken Islamic radicalism, it's seriously misguided.

 

 

AP

Members of the Islamic militia posing with their guns during an anti-Ethiopia rally in the Somali capital Mogadishu in October.

Ethiopa's military offensive against the Union of Islamic Courts, which holds the Somali capital Mogadishu and much of central and southern Somalia, is a dangerous act of aggression that could lead to a protracted war and even strengthen the Islamists, according to German media commentators who see the conflict as opening up a new battlefield in the American-led global war against Islamic extremists.

 

The UIC -- which seized Mogadishu six months ago -- has introduced law and order to the capital and much of southern Somalia for the first time in 16 years. But other countries accuse the UIC of links to al-Qaida, charges it denies. Somalia and Ethiopia -- a mainly Christian nation -- have a history of troubled relations and Islamists have long called for a holy war against Ethiopian troops supporting the Somali transitional government. The United States State Department has signaled Washington's backing for Ethiopia by noting that it had "genuine security concerns" arising from the Islamist gains in Somalia.

 

Center-left newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

 

"The war that has broken out at the Horn of Africa will be hard to contain. It is unlikely that the intervention of Addis Ababa can lead to a victory over the Islamists.

 

"The Ethiopian army is well-equipped and one of the largest on the African continent. But even if it beats the Islamists on the battlefield -- it will fail to destroy the political base of the Union of Islamic Courts which has won a lot of support among the population because it offers an alternative to the despotism of the warlords who have been wrecking Somalia for years."

 

"Some of these warlords are now on the side of the Somali transitional government, which considerably reduces its credibility. The more heavily Ethiopia intervenes, the more this plays into the hands of the Islamists. They can then easily slip into the role of good guardian protecting Somalia from an external enemy."

 

"Bombs on airports and artillery fire only increase the chaos. Instead of isolating the Islamists, the international community should quickly get the warring parties to the negotiating table. The Islamists are so strongly entrenched in the country that there can no longer be a political solution without them. The Americans might not like that but they should accept it. Otherwise it will take a very long time for the guns to fall silent in Somalia."

 

Left-wing Die Tageszeitung writes:

 

"Washington is supporting the transitional government to prevent an Islamist victory. But the USA is employing the wrong means. It is supporting warlords who are hated among the population and the Americans believe they can use Ethiopia as a proxy to avoid having to use their own troops. That is simply idiotic. Ethiopia is Somalia's archenemy, partly because of a territorial conflict. If Ethiopian troops enter Somalia it will drive even moderate Islamists into the Islamists' camp."

 

"Why should all this interest us? Because Europe isn't an Island of the Blessed. A regional war at the Horn of Africa and the emergence of a new area of retreat for terrorists threatens our own security. That's part of globalization too."

 

David Crossland, 3:30 CET