What went wrong on TFG

[XOG-ogaal]

The worsening security situation in Somalia is being blamed on miscalculations by the Ethiopian government and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) on the resilience of the Union of Islamic Courts. Also contributing to the situation is the apparent lack of determination of the African Union to take the necessary steps to maintain peace.

 

Mogadishu underwent one its worst nights of violence last Wednesday, with the Somali capital coming under a barrage of mortar bombs that killed at least 20 people and left several wounded in what residents said was the heaviest bombardment in weeks.

 

 

More than 20 rounds crashed into the areas including the Bakara Market, the police transport headquarters and streets around the seaport, where Ugandan peacekeepers have set up defences.

 

But so far, the Ugandan troops are sitting ducks - until a ship carrying their military hardware docks early next month.

 

The daily attacks are being blamed on hardline remnants of the Islamist movement, who dramatically fled the capital and other towns in the face of a lightning offensive last December by Ethiopian and TFG forces.

 

The self-dissolution of the Council of Somali Islamic Courts on December 27, 2006, surrendering political leadership to clan leaders, was, according to the International Crisis Group, a major success for Ethiopia and the US, who feared the emergence of a Taliban-style haven for al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremists, but it is too early to declare an end to Somalia's woes.

 

The latest report on Somalia by the Crisis Group says there is now a political vacuum across much of southern Somalia, which the ineffectual TFG is unable to fill. Elements of the Courts, including Shabaab militants and their al-Qaeda associates, are largely intact and threatening guerrilla war.

 

Peace requires the TFG to be reconstituted as a genuine government of national unity, but the signs of its willingness to do so are discouraging. Sustained international pressure is needed.

 

The Courts' defeat signals the return of clan-based politics to southern Somalia. Whereas the Courts drew their support predominantly from the xamar clan, the TFG is widely perceived as dominated by buntland clan interests. TFG leaders reinforced this perception by pursuing policies that further alienated the xamar clan, notably an appeal for foreign troops and the government's relocation to Jowhar and then Baidoa, instead of Mogadishu.

 

xamar confused: alienation and TFG inadequacies left a vacuum into which the Courts expanded between June and December 2006, bringing a degree of peace and security unknown to the south for more than 15 years. Mogadishu was reunited, weapons were removed from the streets and the port and airport reopened.

 

By December, the Courts had expanded from their Mogadishu base to control most of the territory between the Kenyan border and the autonomous region of Puntland in the northeast, while the TFG was confined to Baidoa, protected by its Ethiopian backers. Communities seemed prepared to tolerate a strict interpretation of Sharia law in return for peace and security.

 

Politically, Somalia has now been returned roughly to where it was when the TFG was formed in October 2004. The government is weak, unpopular and faction-ridden, and the power vacuum in southern Somalia is rapidly being filled by the same faction leaders and warlords the Courts overthrew less than a year ago.

 

Many Mogadishu residents resent the Courts' defeat, feel threatened by the TFG and are dismayed by the presence of Ethiopian troops in the capital. Mogadishu is awash with weapons, and there have already been hit-and-run attacks on TFG and Ethiopian troops. The potential for serious violence is just below the surface.

 

Ethiopia's military victory has dismantled only the most visible part of the Courts: the regional administrative authority in south-central Somalia (including Mogadishu), which served essentially as a political platform for ****** clan interests. Other elements, including the militant Shabaab leadership, remain largely intact and have dispersed throughout the country, threatening to wage a prolonged war.

 

A US air strike on January 8 apparently wounded Aden Hashi 'Ayro, a prominent Shabaab commander, and killed some of his guards but failed to destroy any major targets. A second US air strike was launched on January 23, but information on the targets and impact was not immediately available.

 

The grassroots network of mosques, schools and private enterprises that has underpinned the spread of Salafist teachings and their extremist variants remains in place and continues to expand, thanks to generous contributions from Islamic charities and the private sector.

 

Whether the Islamists, including their more extreme jihadi elements, can stage a comeback depends largely on whether the TFG can restore stability and win public support across southern Somalia.

 

Some of the steps taken by the government so far, such as declaring a state of emergency and deposing the Speaker of the parliament - who had been prominent in efforts to engage the Courts in dialogue and compromise - have not been promising.

 

The International Crisis Group has recommended that the government rescind the state of emergency and reinstate the Speaker of parliament, reconstitute the Cabinet as a genuine government of national unity that incorporates credible leaders from the communities that backed the Courts, and establish representative authorities for key municipalities, including Mogadishu and Kismayo, in order to provide political stability and manage local security over the short-term.

 

Relevant Links

 

East Africa

Somalia

Ethiopia

Conflict, Peace and Security

Peacekeeping and Conflict Resolution

 

 

 

Other measures would include giving up the notion of forcible disarmament, especially in Mogadishu, and instead negotiating a plan for voluntary disarmament, and taking up the tasks for which it was originally formed - to advance the process of national reconciliation, complete the transition to a permanent government and work its way out of a job by 2009, when elections are supposed to be held.

 

The rapid replacement of Ethiopian troops with a broader, multilateral peacekeeping mission is essential to defuse public resentment towards what is considered a foreign occupation.

 

Ethiopia and the US now bear a significant responsibility to consolidate peace in Somalia. They must push the TFG to take the above steps to transform itself into a more inclusive national body. :confused:

[Captain Xalane]

Nothing went wrong so far.Things will go wrong when the TFG uses other means than force before it tames the criminals down there.

[Jaylaani]

The TFG became clan organization not a government...that is why!

[Captain Xalane]

Thats where u are wrong.Its the enemy combatants that have been hiding themselves with religion that showed the side they always have been hiding and thus became clan.Dude the game is a clan fighting against a government.Or perhaps u are forgetting the elders plea,'' we don't mind ethiopia,we mind the recruits from Puntland''.What a disgrace!

[XOG-ogaal]

DUDU XALANE WHERE IS THE GOVERNMENT YOUR TALKING ABOUT ? THE WAY IT WAS BUILD CLAN BASE SYSTEM AND RIGHT NOW ONE QABIIL IS RUNNING THE SHOW. XALANE THE PEOPLE IN SOMALILAND ARE 1.5 QABIIL STATE AND THEY ARE AGAINTS THE GOVERNMENT HOW COME YOU DON'T HATE AS MUCH AS YOU HATE THE CLAN FROM XAMAR?

 

CAN BUUB TO GO HARGAYS AND MAKE A SPEECH ? CAN GACMADHEER DO THE SAME NO THEN THEY DON'T REPRESENT THOSE CLAN SIMPLE

[Jaylaani]

Xalane,

 

Reer Butland waa dawlad reer mugadishina waa terrorist cidididnkama yeelayso.

 

You tried to dominate others in their home cities and it backfired.

 

Now Ethiopian might side with the freedom fighters of Mogadishu granted your uncle and his Militia have no power to maintain control.

 

This is current conflict has nothing to do with religion. Your uncle’s policy in ethnic cleansing became transparent and people reacted accordingly.

 

 

XOX,

 

What do you mean Somaliland is against the government? Which government are you talking about?

[Captain Xalane]

Xox Ogaal.Horta hore lets get one thing straight.I hate no clan,i hate the disunity and to get out of it,we can only do that with force and i will always favour for a force that will annihilate anything on the way of peace,be it civilians or be it an organization.No negotiations will ever help,no consultations will ever help.Its time for a military drill and this drill got to hurt.

 

As for who is running the show,what do u suggest?Some one got to run the show and does his qabiil matter?As for the clan system,what do u suggest,that we should have one clan system?And even if that is done,how will power be shared among the clans living in somalia?See,ur claims are absurd and ur sentiments are no more than mere potato sentiments sxb.

 

As for hargeyso,Once peace in the south is secured,it will submitt itself or it will be made to.

 

And again sxb,with no military force,no peace will ever be secured and that is why nothing went wrong so far for the drill is on and official.With force,peace will be attained.U sleep on that!

[RedSea]

What didn't go wrong saaxib is better question.

 

Everything went wrong from the getgo.

 

The moment they elected a thugh like Abdullahi Yusuf an EThiopian agent, the moment they appointed animal doctor geedi who knows nothing about politics, offcourse from that point on everything was doomed to fail.

[XOG-ogaal]

SORRY TO BRING YOU IN THIS MESS JAYLAANI.....I'M TALKING ABOUT THE SO CALL TFG, BUT THEN I FORGOT YOU HAVE YOUR OWN GOVERNMENT.

 

LET ME SAY IT

 

LONG LIVE SLAND OR BLAND DOWN XLAND XALANE THERE I SAID IT

[Captain Xalane]

Originally posted by Jaylaani:

Xalane,

 

Reer Butland waa dawlad reer mugadishina waa terrorist cidididnkama yeelayso.

 

Come up with something chew-able sxb.The reer stories of women folk do not suit the conversation.Its about what went wrong and so far nothing went wrong for force is already in use.As said before,who ever stands on the way of peace,be them what, will be liquidated and rest be assured of that.

[RedSea]

^Well, speaking of something chewable, the TFG it's not very tasty to all others but yourselves meaning folks like you and yes Duke, Taako man(TFG cheerleaders). The reason being, looking at the somali clan complex, the TFG is mostly dominated by one sub clan from Puntland who are now in control via Ethiopia of Xamar, that is not chewable if you ask me.

[Jaylaani]

Originally posted by Captain Xalane:

As for hargeyso,Once peace in the south is secured,it will submitt itself or it will be made to.

 

Lol@made to

 

Bal lafaheedii bay la liidataayo markaasay dayaxa doonaysay inay aado.

 

 

Ader heedhe don't you know that reer Mogadishu has no problem with Somaliland being independent? 18 may was always celebrated from Hiiraan to Xamar.

 

One thing for sure, there will never be all out war between Somaliland and those from Mogadishu (if you know what I mean)

 

Some people say if Garoowe wasn't in the middle, Somaliland and the "south" would have been united long time ago.

 

The million dollar question is WHY BUTLAND IS THE ENEMY OF BOTH STATES? Basically all Somalis. Wadar iyo waaxadka kee waalan tolow.

 

Xox,

 

I heard you bro.

[RedSea]

Hargeysa will be made to submit eh?

 

I will call you brave man if we witness that happening, offcourse we already know Somaliland will NOT voluntarily submit, so the only one left is option B, what are you waiting for?

 

Waryaa Jaylaani,

 

Kan yare wuxuu daawadaa too many fictional war movies markaa waxay la tay in waxkasta sidaas udhici doonaan?

 

"Habar fadhida lagdini lafududaa" was saying right?

[Jaylaani]

Waa lagu qoslaa uun saaxiib. ee looma jawaabo maraky waxaaso kale kuula yimaadaan

[Captain Xalane]

Originally posted by Muj. Red Sea:

^Well, speaking of something chewable, the TFG it's not very tasty to all others but yourselves

U call this chewable?Potato sentiments were way far better.Stick to the topic or is it that u got nothing to say coz maybe there is nothing to say?

 

Edit;Jay,as for somaliland and etc,its issues are un important.Once the south is secured,it will be next.