Baashi Posted October 29, 2006 Round 12.0 - Sixteen years on Somalia Online Cyber-ku-Dirrir Premier Inna Af-ka-Noole October 29, 2006 *Commentary Political junkies such as SOL cyber warriors are predicting a final and conclusive knockout. In any ordinary boxing match where the rules of the game are observed Round 12.0 is the final round and the last man standing is the winner. Not so in the nomadic "Legdin" matches. Round 12.0 have little significance in the civil wars fueled by foreign interferences and inter-clan rivalries. Imagine if your allies next door can interfere when you are down and can weaken your rival at will on your behalf! As spectators looking in from distance we have seen Round 11.0 like no other. This time around UIC managed to sweep the field with broom. They defeated all the forces they have thus far taken on. The match between forces loyal to UIC and TFG, however, is still in the making. The coming war as many have been predicting has not yet materialized. If and when the "all out war" between the TFG and UIC breaks, there will be no victor. Here is why: The strength of the UIC stems from Benadir the most populous region of the country. Benadir residents are, for the first time, united and motivated. UIC enjoy a sizable grassroots support from this important region. Therefore they are expected to overrun the fragmented and disillusioned TFG militia. However TFG is not counting on its fragmented militia. It's backed by regional states. Fearful of far-reaching consequences of Somalia run by religious leaders who openly call for Jihad against their neighboring states, Ethiopia is openly committed to make use of its Air Forces against UIC threat. Armed with newly acquired F16 jets, Ethiopia can deliver a major blow to UIC's ground forces and its logistical reinforcement on route to the front. Ethiopia can weaken UIC's ability to advance to other regions that are not under its rule but they can not finish UIC off. Where does that leave the TFG? Nowhere! Ethiopia will not arm the TFG forces to the teeth for they have no interest to tilt the balance of power to unreliable and ambitious Inna Yusuf. The only realistic outcome will be the reemergence of the devastating jingoism of the nineties. Inna Yussuf will try his best to make this conflict a clan conflict so he can mobilize his Puntland and Gedo assets. At the end of Round 12.0, the match will look like Round 1.0 Somalia will resemble more like Congo where the neighboring countries in the region arm and support their allies. The ensuing conflict will devastate the shaky economy of the breadbasket region as it disrupts peace. Sizable residents will be uprooted and displaced, and conflict marked with shifting allegiance will continue one way or another. Make no mistake THERE will be NO victor. As much as I applaud UIC gains and its ability to articulate a political platform that's above the fray I'm afraid that their rhetoric is making Ethiopians have their way. That being said, all is not lost. There are other realistic scenario. Having secured the two possible staging area namely Feerfeer gate and Kismayo ports, the UIC have compelling interest to make peace with the TFG. Likewise the TFG's mandate is finite and the leadership will be well served if they consider the lucrative offer the UIC have put on the table. Compromise and concessions are the backbone of the realpolitik. TFG gets recognition and Benadir without firing a bullet. UIC get Islamic constitution and a chance to run the country once the TFG mandate expires. The ordinary Somalis will get lasting peace, law and order, and chance to make a living without watching their back. It may be the case that the final Round will be fought over the peace settlement draft. If that happens this round may very well be the final Round 12.0 This rendition of SOL cyber-ku-dirrir is brought to you by the directors of the much acclaimed drama Dudumo in la dareensado iyo in la dugsado la isuga ma daro. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
QabiilDiid Posted October 29, 2006 Mr. Baashi, UIC are aware of the Tigrean air forces and that is why Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Hassan with open discussion with Mog students on BBC last Friend presented the UIC military strategy to minimize the effectiveness of aerial bombardment. The UIC forces will never concentrate in large numbers in one identifiable spot. I do not think the Tigrean military planners will utilize military helicopters. Any low flying airplane is target reachable by UIC antiaircraft guns. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Haashim Posted October 29, 2006 That being said, all is not lost. There are other realitic scenerio. Having secured the two possible stagging area namely Feerfeer gate and Kismayo ports, the UIC have compelling interest to make peace with the TFG. Likewise the TFG's mandate is finite and the leadership will be well served if they consider the lucrative offer the UIC have put on the table. Compromise and concessions are the backbone of the realpolitik. TFG gets recognition and Benadir without firing a bullet. UIC get Islamic constitution and a chance to run the country once the TFG mandate expires. The ordinary Somalis will get lasting peace, law and order, and chance to make a living without watching their back. I reckon this scenario. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Juje Posted October 29, 2006 Originally posted by Nayruus: that is why Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Hassan with open discussion with Mog students on BBC...presented the UIC military strategy to minimize the effectiveness of aerial bombardment. The UIC forces will never concentrate in large numbers in one identifiable spot. Macaliin iga dheh...did he actually say that in the airwaves....clearly outlining the strategic defense of the ICU. What next , he will be outlining the number of combatants and their gears and location. Anyway the ICU is strong in here as said, causde they have a home advantage. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted October 29, 2006 ^^^^Bashi presents some valid points. The TFG has only three years left, if you want a real Islamic system absorp the existing one. One thing is for sure the ICU as it is will not get political recognition aside from the Arabs. The talk of Tigray and foreign fighters is a uselss, there are Eritran and Oromo as well as Ethiopian fighters, het them all out and let the Somali's have open dialogue. As for Shiekh Sharif he is no millitary man thus he can outline all he likes, the man does not have basic training. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gabbal Posted October 29, 2006 Even if the talks were to take place, how many of you actually think it would yield fruits? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
