The old plan to invade Somalia....................

[Fabregas]

Empire comes to Somalia

 

 

Just as the gallows were being readied in Baghdad for the hanging of Saddam Hussein, Ethiopia invaded Somalia, in a thinly veiled proxy war launched by the U.S., and drove out the ruling coalition of the Somali Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC), whose forces surrendered the capital, Mogadishu, quickly, some of them retreating into their strongholds in southern Somalia and others just shaving off their beards and disappearing into the city's burgeoning population. The orderliness of the quick retreat was reminiscent of the way the Taliban in Afghanistan and the bulk of Iraq's Baathist army had retreated into the interiors and among the general populace when their respective countries were attacked by the overwhelmingly superior forces of the U.S.

 

The Ethiopians re-installed a government of warlords that had been ousted some six months earlier, and when the U.S. AC130 warplanes - military cargo aircraft turned into huge gunships fitted with the most modern gadgetry - flew out of the U.S. airbase in Djibouti to start attacking Somali territory some two weeks later, the President of this puppet regime, Abdullahi Yusuf, was at hand to tell the journalists that the U.S. "has a right to bombard suspects who attacked its embassies in Kenya and Tanzania". The US has been attacking from the air ever since and has moved the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower to join three other warships off the Somali coast, on the pretext that Somalia is studded with Al Qaeda base camps. Meanwhile, the internecine warfare among the warlord factions, which had plagued Mogadishu for 15 years before the SCIC captured the capital in 2006, is once again the order of the day. Even as I draft these lines, the news is that one such gang fight under the new occupation has cost six human lives. The making of another Baghdad, as it were!

 

Like the hanging of Saddam Hussein, the invasion of Somalia has also been awaited for some time. That the invasion plans were being given the final touches was indicated in November 2006 when Gen John Abizaid, the then commander of the U.S. Central Command that is responsible for the whole region, flew into Addis Ababa for talks with the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zanawi to draw up the detailed plans. Then, on December 6, the U.S. set aside the intensive Arab and European mediation efforts for an agreement between the contenders for power in Somalia and pushed through the U.N. Security Council its Resolution 1725, which recognised the makeshift government for Somalia that had been organised in Kenya by U.S. allies in the region and was essentially an alliance of warlords.

 

The resolution also called for the creation of an international peacekeeping force to ensure the return of that freshly minted "government" to power in the capital and, in an apparent insurance against Ethiopian invasion, explicitly called upon all neighbouring states to desist from interfering in Somalia's internal affairs. With the resolution in its pocket, the U.S. immediately launched preparations for the final push, and when the Ethiopian invasion actually came, Bush declared his support by saying that he fully understood Ethiopia's security concerns.

 

That is the immediate background. The invasion has been awaited for years, though, and as I dust up my old files I find that in the months following the September 11, 2001 attacks in the U.S. and all through the invasion of Afghanistan, Somalia was the country that got described in the media as the next likely target, before all attention shifted to Iraq. Thus, on November 25, 2001, The Sunday Times blandly reported that "the United States and Britain are planning to extend the war on terrorism in Somalia, Sudan and Yemen as soon as the campaign in Afghanistan is over" and that "the British and their CIA counterparts have been assembling evidence to be used as the basis for attacks on bin Laden's associates and terrorist training camps". A report in Financial Times Online, on December 11, 2001, reads as if it was drafted exactly five years later, at the end of 2006:

 

Nine Americans reportedly met representatives of a clan-based group called the Rahanwein Resistance Army (RRA) and a warlord known as General Morgan, in the central town of Baidoa. Both form part of a wider Ethiopian-backed anti-government alliance called the Somali Restoration and Reconciliation Council (SRRC). The SRRC and its Ethiopian backers have long accused Somalia's new transitional government (TNG) - established last year in Djibouti - of having Islamist sympathies. It talks of training camps linked to Al Qaeda. Ethiopia says it is reacting to evidence that the TNG is in the pocket of Islamic terrorists but others, including the government, suggest that is a smokescreen for a more imperialistic agenda.

 

Le Monde Diplomatique of the same month five years ago had this to say:

 

After 11 September, there are two potential winners in the new order, Sudan and Ethiopia, and two probable losers, Somalia and Eritrea. In Sudan, now an oil-producing country, President Omar al-Bashir seems set to emulate the success of his Pakistani counterpart. Over a year ago he agreed to the opening of an American anti-terrorist bureau in Khartoum... . The Ethiopian government immediately offered to mount its own campaign against al-Ittihaad... . A war against the Somalis would be popular and not entail any great military risks... . It would also reinforce Ethiopia's policy over the last 10 years of keeping Somalia broken up into four or five clan-based micro-states.

 

On 8 January 2002, Christian Science Monitor was to inform its readers:

 

British, French, and U.S. military reconnaissance flights have become more frequent in recent days, with U.S. Navy P-3 planes doubling their missions over the country to four or five a week. The Pentagon will soon have three Marine Expeditionary Units (with 1,200 troops each) patrolling the Somali coastline, ensuring Al Qaeda members escaping Afghanistan cannot find shelter on these lawless shores. Germany sent a fleet of six ships to the Horn of Africa Wednesday. The US is continuing discussions with the Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council (SRRC), a loose grouping of warlords backed by Ethiopia who oppose the government in Mogadishu and have pledged to fight terrorism. Ethiopia reportedly sent 70 officers to Baidoa last week to train members of SRRC for fighting, though Addis Ababa denies it.

 

This is just as a small sample. Heaps of such stuff got published five years ago, and the basic contours of the war to secure the Horn of Africa for long-term imperial dominance, which is unfolding now, are already there. Not just the U.S. and Britain but also Germany (which now has troops in Afghanistan) have been at it since then; which explains why the U.S. was able to secure the Security Council Resolution on Somalia last month so easily and why there was not even a whimper of protest in that same Security Council when the U.S. immediately proceeded to prepare Ethiopia to invade, in direct violation of a key clause in that very resolution. But the real significance of that more recent resolution was there for all to see. As the International Herald Tribune of December 26, 2006, four days before Saddam's execution, was to point out:

 

The U.N. Security Council, however, did take up the issue, and in another craven act which will further cement its reputation as an anti-Muslim body, bowed to American and British pressure to authorise a regional peacekeeping force to enter Somalia to protect the transitional government, which is fighting the Islamic Courts.

 

As we see in those old reports, the basic alliance between the U.S., Ethiopia and the warlords was being put in place, with active collusion from Sudan and Djibouti, five years before the Islamic Courts emerged victorious, for some months, in 2006 - which has now become the excuse for an invasion that has been in the making all this time. And that same talk of "Al Qaeda", an all-purpose spectral phantom that can be invoked at will, to occupy any country, commit any atrocity, violate any international law, back any grouping of thugs - all in the name of a "war on terror".

 

Ethiopia is a natural ally of the United States. Like Israel, Ethiopia is yet to declare its final borders - because it covets the territories of its principal neighbours, Somalia and Eritrea - just as Israel is hell-bent on capturing more and more territory, Syrian and Lebanese as well as much more of the historic Palestine as possible. Israel does have a long coastline but covets the water resources of the Palestinian Territories it occupies as well as those of Lebanon which it has invaded again and again; the landlocked Ethiopia does not even have a coastline and covets territory from both Eritrea and Somalia so as to gain its own sovereign access to the high seas. Israel must remain a "Jewish state" on the historic land of Palestine, even though if one were to take into account all the Palestinians - inside Israel, in the Occupied Territories, and driven into the rest of the world as refugees - the Jewish population in historic Palestine would still be a minority. Similarly, Ethiopia flaunts itself as an ancient "Christian country" even though even the CIA handbook on the country would tell you that Muslims are the most numerous religious community there: not a part of the ruling elite but the largest religious collectivity on the historic land of Ethiopia! And, thanks to its phantasmagoric claims to be only a "Christian country" it must be permanently at war with its Muslim neighbours because its own Muslim majority has much in common with those neighbours; indeed, some 6 per cent of its population is specifically Somali in its ethnic makeup. The Ethiopian elite has the same difficulty that Israel has in becoming a multi-religious and multi-cultural, truly secular society; those who do not belong to the politically and economically dominant religious group must forever be second-class citizens.

 

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/stories/20070126006100400.htm

[Castro]

There's a remarkable body of evidence publicly available today showing how this recent Ethiopian/US invasion of Somalia was planned for some time. What's even more remarkable is the belief some have that the 'political genius' of a Somali leader has orchestrated the whole thing to get rid of his opposition. Orchestration-ow xaal qaado.

 

Is it any wonder then the 'flat earth' theory persists until today millennia after it was flatly discredited?

[ElPunto]

^Really? Please share this remarkable body of evidence. I think the situation was a target of opportunity for the Americans and Ethiopians. El Jefe - I think you're confusing southern Somalia with southern Lebanon.

[Castro]

^ I have been sharing it. Neither mathematical proof nor pictures from space showing the earth being round was enough for flat-earthers. What makes you think you're any different?

 

The only 'opportunity' here was finding a group of people with the right mix of intelligence (or lack thereof), disloyalty and greed. It took a while but they were finally found (or assembled) in the TFG leadership

[ElPunto]

^Oh Lord - so now I'm the flat earther and you are the astute scientist? Alright but saxiib - you've hardly produced the mathematical proof or the pictures from space in regard to your argument leaving you well short of the requirements of your self-proclaimed profession.

[RedSea]

Castro I agree.

 

The Point,it's all clear and evident saxib.But if we even ignore that, let us just say mission accomplished for the U.S and Ethiopia.Now will you deny?

[RedSea]

Castro I agree.

 

The Point,it's all clear and evident saxib.But if we even ignore that, let us just say mission accomplished for the U.S and Ethiopia.Now will you deny?

[Castro]

It was an allegorical example but you might still be a proud member of the flat earth society.

 

Nonetheless, in the past few weeks I tried to bring articles (of excellent repute) that show the invasion of Somalia is an old plan as the title of this thread aptly described. Furthermore, the plan was not an impromptu (fall of 2006) knee-jerk reaction to the ICU Jihad calls but the the window of opportunity was the Jihad calls. The two are not mutually exclusive.

 

Finally, here are some of the articles I posted in the past last week alone in an attempt to help connect the dots for those who're not immersed in this as I am.

 

dot

 

dot

 

dot

 

dot

 

dot

 

dot

 

If you're still unable to connect the dots, perhaps I can point you to some more reading.

[ElPunto]

^I will go through your dots. I will be looking for several key things in order for your dots to render probable the assertion of an old plan to invade Somalia:

 

1- Evidence that there indeed was a formal plan to invade Somalia by either Ethiopians or the Americans that are older than a year at least; any plans drawn up within a period of less than 1 year are indicative of a reaction rather than some longstanding strategic objective

 

2- Evidence that shows there was a joint(Eth/US) recognition of an indentified single enemy or antagonist within the Somali political landscape prior to the emergence of the ICU

 

3- Evidence that shows there was a definite objective in mind for a new Somali political landscape(in concert with the purported plan of invasion) separate from and different to the past attempts at a national gov't

 

 

I let you know by tomorrow the results of my readings. Hasta Luego Castro.

 

PS - If you will note above - I responded to your post by saying 'I think' rather than your 'there is a remarkable body of evidence' etc - as such I hardly qualify for your 'flat-earther' appellation since a positive assertion is needed for that - perhaps the shoe is on the other foot

[Castro]

^ And I must withdraw (with an apology) the underhanded and inappropriate reference to flat earth. This is a very important topic, in my view, and being short on time today, perhaps we can both reconvene later and make a decent discussion out it.

[ElPunto]

^You're a classy guy Jefe - long may you remain on SOL.

[Fabregas]

Unless you are the cia you won't find any soild proof of a planned somali invasion.However you can find subtle indicators here and there. Somalia was a "possible target" just like plenty of other muslim countries after 9/11.I will back with more later.........

[Castro]

^ I think LePoint can read between the lines (when he wants to ) and should figure out, if he hasn't already, what's going on here.

 

Thanks for the compliment atheer. Though my wife would insist remaining on SOL is no well wish.

[ElPunto]

As I said - I was looking for the following 3 criteria to render probable your assertions regarding an "old plan to invade Somalia"

 

1- Evidence that there indeed was a formal plan to invade Somalia by either Ethiopians or the Americans that are older than a year at least; any plans drawn up within a period of less than 1 year are indicative of a reaction rather than some longstanding strategic objective

 

2- Evidence that shows there was a joint(Eth/US) recognition of an indentified single enemy or antagonist within the Somali political landscape prior to the emergence of the ICU

 

3- Evidence that shows there was a definite objective in mind for a new Somali political landscape(in concert with the purported plan of invasion) separate from and different to the past attempts at a national gov't

 

--------------------------------------------

 

I read through all your dots and I find scant evidence of any old plan to invade Somalia.

 

Looking at each of the above factors for each article you gave me.

 

There is no evidence that they were any plans of any substance to invade Somalia prior to the year 2006(a reasonable definition of 'old'). There were emanations of alarm and thoughts of 'action' in anarchy ridden Somalia from the US soon after 9/11 but this came to naught. What did happen on this front was the establishment of a base in Djibouti and a naval and aerial reconnasiance of Somalia. Any plans that were established to invade Somalia began after the emergence of the ICU and Washington's alarm at some of their rhetoric and their leaders. As evidence from Dot 1(or article 1) in the sources you cited:

 

"But America's concerns came to a head last year with the rise of the Islamic Courts Union. At first, Washington's response was relatively modest. It mounted a small CIA operation, run from Nairobi, to stand up Somalia's hated warlords against the Islamists, a former intelligence official familiar with the region says."

 

This above quote implies a reaction rather than any strategic longterm plan for the country - else why support the warlords at that juncture when the US had never supported them before?

 

Moving on to criterion #2 - there is no evidence that shows any semblance of a joint recognition of an identified enemy by either the Ethiopians or the US. Presumably - you need a clear enemy to make an "old" plan of invasion and execute it. In fact, Somalia was completely off the US radar since the alarm after 9/11 dissipated. Ethiopia was the prime architect and active supporter of the TFG but even they were doing little in Somalia apart from hoping that the TFG wouldn't go the way of the previous Carta govt.

 

From article 2:

 

"The current series of events began with the rise of the Islamic Courts more than a year ago....Washington was wary, fearing their possible support for terrorists. While they have denied any such intentions, some Islamists do have terrorist ties, but these have been vastly overstated in the West."

 

Again this implies a reaction to the ICU rather than a previously defined enemy that was to be taken out when the opportunity arose.

 

Now for the final criterion. Presumably, if you will launch an old plan of invasion then you must have a definite objective in mind - and to consolidate your gains from the invasion you must put in place a new political landscape.

 

Again, there is no evidence of the above whatsoever. Up until mid-2006 the Somali political landscape(in the south) was the same as it had been for many years - a bunch of warlords in the capital city with an ineffectual transitional govt waiting in the wings. Although the TFG was recognized by many and had the semblance of a government in waiting - few countries were willing to help it realize its goal of becoming the actual governing authority. Why? Because there was no vital interest apart from the those of the immediate nieghbours. However, as the ICU began to emerge and then gained strength, the support for the TFG increased dramatically. And the TFG was soon touted as the only way for Somalia to go forward(at least by the US and its cohorts). Once again, this is indicative of a reaction rather than a strategic longterm plan for Somalia. And the reason is simple - before mid 2006 there was no 'antagonist' in Somalia for the US to really give a damn about the country.

 

In article 3 of your works cited -

 

"But, last month, the Bush administration actively supported Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia....The United States claimed that the Islamic Courts government, which took power last summer, was harboring three Al Qaeda fugitives. But the Al Qaeda members had been in Somalia well before the Islamic Courts took power. They were not part of the government"

 

You can see here a demonizing of the ICU after they took power and became a force which, again is a reaction to them and their political stance. The US didn't give a damn about Somalia prior to ICU emergence - when the ICU emerged they became the antagonists and by default the TFG became the protagonists.

 

Your case is abysmally weak El Jefe. And upon examination of the evidence - I declare that there is no 'remarkable body of evidence' supporting your assertions - at least those that you cited in your post.

 

Now for a better constructed case and one that is convincing to me is that of the allegations of a longstanding plan by the Israelis with the connivance of the Americans during the Lebanon war in the summer of 2006. That case is laid out persuasively by Seymour Hersh here:

 

http://www.newyorker.com/printables/fact/060821fa_fact

 

In reading that article you will see that it meets all of my criteria:

 

1- Evidence of a longstanding plan of invasion? Yes as cited by Israeli sources themselves since Hezbollah posed an existential threat to them for some time.

 

2- Evidence of a joint(US/Isr) recognition of an identified enemy prior to the invasion? Yes - well prior to the 2006 summer war - Israel and the US declared their enmity for Hezbollah and identified them as standing in the way of 'progress' in Lebanon and the broader Middle East.

 

3- Evidence of a definite objective in mind with regard to the political landscape? Yes - they wanted to clean out Hezbollah from the south and hand it over to the Lebanese govt which was friendly to America and which in due course would sign a peace treaty with Israel etc etc.

 

I'll be back Sunday to respond to any rebuttals you may have.

[Castro]

LePoint, I see you've destroyed the criteria you've (conveniently) set up yourself. I'll put together some form of a rebuttal IA in the next few days. Good effort by the way.