In the event of an Ethiopian withdrawal can the Islamists make Somalia governable onc

[Liqaye]

By: Abdullahi Jama 13 Oct 2008

After 20 odd months of brutal occupation, the Ethiopian army maybe poised to withdraw from Somalia proper not because of the pledges they made before, as stated in the recent Djibouti agreement between TFG and the A.R.S faction led by Sheikh Sherif Ahmed, but they realized that their grand-plan to rule Somalia by proxy was simply not attainable. Reliable sources indicate that the Ethiopian military will retreat back to its recognized borders in the next few months.

 

Currently, Ethiopia is mulling over three options: First, back to their former habits of launching forays and covert activities into Somali soil whenever they deem necessary, in order to cause security mayhem. Second, to supply arms and ammunitions to the Somali warlords in an attempt to reignite tribal warfare wherever they can. Third, to revive the decade old idea of “building blocks”, a bottom up approach meant to further fragment the Somali republic into tribal fiefdoms, namely Jubbaland, Shabelleland, Puntland, Somaliland, Hinterland, you name it.

 

Whichever way the Ethiopians choose, they are confident of having Washington on their side. This is nothing new; the U.S does not have a policy of its own for Somalia. Therefore, it continues to borrow from the Ethiopians as usual. In other words, when it comes to the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia takes the lead and Washington follows.

 

The Ethiopian withdrawal, if it happens, is not a direct result of the deeply flawed Djibouti agreement, which so far achieved nothing but diplomatic exercises and photo opportunities of the Sheriffs and the fanfare of Amb.Ahmed Ould Abdalla, the Mauritanian born UN Secretary General Representative for Somalia. The agreement per se, does not guarantee the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops; instead it created a dangerous loophole that opened a new window of opportunity for the greedy elites of Addis Ababa regime, glossing over the atrocities committed during their brutal occupation. Indeed, the personalities that are running the Djibouti show, have so far only succeeded to divide both camps of the talks; the TFG as well as the A.R.S. For now, the Ethiopians and their American allies have provided support for the Djibouti peace talks; it is unclear however, whether they support Somali nation-state to be reconstituted. Many observers believe that their intention is solely to split the A.R.S into militants and moderates, and cause internecine war between them, a tactic that echoes the Mujahin of Afghanistan after the departure of Soviet Union 1989.

 

Surely, much of the sinister aims of Ethiopian occupation have been thwarted, thanks to the armed resistance, however, the following questions beg for immediate answers: Do we have plan B? What would the Islamic state look like if we agree to embrace one? Can the Resistance unite under the banner of Islam or will it remain divided, as it appears now, between factions and splinter groups of various schools and ideologies, some tending Jihadist International and others aiming at establishing a Somali State. All signs indicate that, the various factions of the resistance are on the brink of open armed conflict between them, let alone to produce a coherent political agenda in order to achieve effective governance. That is obviously disappointing viz a viz the challenges any Islamic state would face from the hostile International Community led by the USA.

 

Perhaps, Islamic Revolution with strong local support is the only way out of the current political and security morass that engulfed the Somali nation for nearly two decades. It provides strong bonds and common values that can hold competing tribes together, it is an alternative to the defective and divisive power sharing figure of 4.5.

 

However, such Islamic state cannot work in isolation. It should be accepted by hostile international community.Therefore, a strong leadership capable of addressing such challenges and particularly the regional hegemony of Ethiopia is needed. The Ethiopian regime battered by the armed resistance both inside its own turf and in Somalia proper, is on the verge political meltdown. As a result, it is likely that they clinch a truce with Somali r�sistance, as long as the Somalis would refrain from taking the armed struggle inside Ethiopia proper.

 

The rhetoric of Somali clerics, such as Sheikh Hassan Dahir Awes, who is a strong believer of the cause of Somali irredentism, is unhelpful. Many Somalis question the wisdom of reigniting the embers of Somali irredentism at this particular juncture.Prof Ken Menkhaus was right when he lectured:” Neither the Ethiopians nor the Islamists have the ability to deliver a knockout punch. The only way this armed conflict will be short is if each side is trying to send a signal to the other. In other words, they bloody each other’s noses, then step back and assess the very high risks to both sides, and someone steps in to mediate”. I personally believe that, if Ethiopia was left its own devices, we would probably deliver a knockout punch; however, Ethiopia relies on the full backing of the USA, whilst Somalia has no friends to turn to for help. Only the tiny but important state of Eritrea sided with Somali cause. They too are under pressure from the arrogant Ethiopian rulers, whose ultimate goal is to exercise unchallenged hegemony in the Horn of Africa. The Somali province in Ethiopia which indeed like their brethren in Somalia faces constant humanitarian catastrophe, ethnic cleansing and gross human rights violation, speaks for itself. We can only help them when we reconstitute our own.

 

The irony is that the Islamists have no program that allows Somalia to regain its lost prestige, preserve the rights of its people and interact with the world at large. Their main focus is to fight the occupation. There are no signs of leadership both in the opposition camp and the TFG.The latter unfortunaly is discredited in the eyes of its people as collaborators of Ethiopian invaders. The AL-Shabab phenomenon is a different story. Some of their beliefs are bonkers. A perfect example is, Sheikh Mukhtar Robow’s recent interview with BBC stating that Al-Shabab is affiliated with Al-Qaeda.Such brinkmanship is merely confrontational, it pits the world’s lonely super power against starving people of Somalia, and it also gives much needed propaganda to the enemy. The Sorrow is that Somalia’s future is left in a limbo even if the Ethiopians withdraw tomorrow. The blame, in my opinion, should be placed at the feet of the so called Somali intellectuals which seem to be shortsighted. The international community is also to blame. It reacted only to Somali people’s solutions after long years of neglect. The Islamic Courts were a Somali solution to long years of agony; they provided relative calm after 17 years of mayhem. Unfortunately, the Ethiopian invasion has closed that window of hope.

 

The West is reeling between ignorance and arrogance with regard to Islamic resurgence around the world and Somalia is no exception. The resurgence of Islamic sentiment that begun in 19th century in Egypt has reached Somalia in the last quarter of 20th century in the form propagation (Da’wa) until it became a radically armed vanguards led by Al-Ittihad Islam in 1990s due to dismal performance of Siad Barre regime coupled with general discontent that stemmed from Somali Army’s disgraceful defeat in the ****** war. What was a peaceful Islamic resurgence (Sahwa Islaamiya) has now been transformed into insurgence. The upsurge in violence is direct result of changing world, the pressures of globalization, the dramatic increase in ecomic, cultural, social and political dominance of the West and the growing interdependence in trade and security across the world.

Therefore, the violence should be understood as a response and r�sistance of the hegemonic West and their allies in Horn of Africa. It is not however, as many observers noted, a launching pad of AlQaeda that aims to take Jihad across the globe, such an idea does not have a support in Somalia, and the world knows that.

 

The Islamic insurgency in Somalia cannot be resolved by military means. The only viable option is integration into political mainstream, and the adoption of Sharia Law is placed at the centre of that solution, if Somalia is ever to be reconstituted. The so called secular warlords and petty opportunists currently shaping the TFG do not hold a card in Somali politics, and cannot lead such a fundamental societal transformation. It maybe wise for the hegemonic West and their regional allies to accept the grim realities on the ground.

 

My advice to the West: Give support for local solutions based on Somali culture and religion, encourage Somali religious scholars and intellectuals to devise a suitable form of government, which is able to regain the trust of Somali people, and interact with the rest of the world. And only, that type of government will be able to stop the fanatics that tend to destabilize the region in the name of Islam. Until that happens, Somalia’s problems will unravel with increased dimension, further plaguing other peaceful parts of the world.

 

The latest carnage in Mogadishu on 23/24th September is a shocking reminder, hundreds of innocent civilians have been indiscriminately shelled, thousands more have been forced to flee their homes. Sadly, the UN continued to ignore such a barbaric killing. If this does not constitute to war crime, under the Statute of Rome, no one including Radovan Karadzic should be brought before the ICC in Hague. It is clear; somebody somewhere has duly authorized such a policy of collective punishment. The double standard of the United Nations is quite evident in the words of Amb.Ahmed Ould Abdalla in his interview with Hiiiraan Online on 26/09/2006. He was asked about the indiscriminate shelling of civilians by the TFG troops and their Ethiopian and AMISOM allies. His answer. I quote.” Every day without a peaceful solution, we will see more violence, killing and injustice”. That undermines the integrity and the fairness of the UN in crucial moment it needs to win over the Somali populace for its peace efforts. In fact, its position is further weakened by its failure to practice what it preaches.

 

Almost certainly, until a new president sits in Washington, and hopefully removes the Rastafarians[ ] from the State Department, the Ethiopian rulers will continue to unwisely use the carte blanche given by Bush Administration, conduct pogroms against Somali ethnic groups inside Ethiopia and destroy lives and properties in Somalia proper, in the name of so called” War On Terror”.

 

Abdullahi Jama

Email:benadam43@hotmail.com

[xiinfaniin]

My advice to the West: Give support for local solutions based on Somali culture and religion, encourage Somali religious scholars and intellectuals to devise a suitable form of government, which is able to regain the trust of Somali people, and interact with the rest of the world. And only, that type of government will be able to stop the fanatics that tend to destabilize the region in the name of Islam. Until that happens, Somalia’s problems will unravel with increased dimension, further plaguing other peaceful parts of the world.

 

Good point ya Liqaye!

[Khayr]

encourage Somali religious scholars and intellectuals to devise

a suitable form of government

, which is able to regain the trust of Somali people, and interact with the rest of the world. And only, that type of government will be able to stop the fanatics that tend to destabilize the region in the name of Islam.

I'm confused. You want to have religious scholars involved, yet at the same time extinguish any islamic insurgency. :con

 

....Oh, I get it, you want them PACIFIED and acceptable to the superpowers.

[Liqaye]

Khayr, brother come down here with the little people and realize that even if the islamists where to win the war outright for them to govern or for any part of their vision to be enacted a government suitable to the Somali people as they see fit will have to be devised.

Otherwise they will also prove to be an interregenum in Somalian history.

[Fabregas]

Well there are many Islamist/s, now: THat probably answers the question.

[Sir-Qalbi-Adeyg]

The way forwards for somalia is independent regions, controlled by local people, not some crazy islamists who's priorities are reckless stonning and other trivial pursuits.

 

It's time we abandoned the concept of somalinimo, because it's truly dead.

[Koora-Tuunshe]

Mr. Dool has penned a good piece

 

Somalia: Is Separation of Religion and State Important?

Abdullahi Dool

 

 

In the 1960s and 1970s, the army used to seize power in the developing nations. The military felt they could run nations better than the politicians of the time. Of course there are countries such as Pakistan where, because of land-related conflicts with neighbours, the military is never far-off from the corridors of power. Even in Pakistan and in most developing nations people now recognise, military rule is unmitigated disaster. The military is best to look after defence matters.

 

The question is: will the use of religion bring a good government for Somalia? It is true, according to the Holy Qur’an we are required to rule ourselves by the word of the Almighty. Unfortunately, many Muslims confuse Sharia (the judiciary) with public administration (political matters). The judiciary is one of the pillars of the state. Governing, like the Judiciary has its separate path. Normally a medical doctor will not be a dentist; the same way a veterinarian is not a physician trained to cure humans. Every field has its own path and every field requires its specialists. That is why the Almighty wants mankind to seek knowledge. In the Hadith HASAN MASHHÛR – the Prophet impressed upon Muslims to seek knowledge no matter how far the distant — even as far as China: "Seeking knowledge is an obligation upon every Muslim."

 

In the 16th century, the churches used to rule in Europe. It is now many centuries since religion and politics have been separated in the West. We must ask, why? The reason is because religion and politics are lethal mix. Again we must ask, why? The problem is not religion. The problem is man. Guns do not kill. It is man who uses them to kill. The use of religion is subject to interpretation. Ten witnesses of one incident are likely to tell ten different stories (versions). Man has issues and flaws such as bias, attitude, greed, ego and many more. He or she also had a certain upbringing and certain schooling. The person who rules does not come out of a box like brand-new merchandise. An individual has a background, which shaped one’s outlook and attitude. Another important factor concerns values. Values come from one’s environment and upbringing. Values (qiyam) are cherished things such as land, flag, nation etc. If one’s parent(s) were clannish, one is likely to be clannish. Anyone can learn the entire Holy book by heart. One’s fairness (fair-mindedness) and judiciousness does not come by the mere reading of the holy book — they stem from other factors.

 

A good government cannot be without positive criticism and constructive dissent. Man is fallible and those who rule need to be told when they are wrong. If mistakes are not mentioned how else will they be addressed? Unfortunately, it is hard to criticize clerics who use religion to rule. They will not tolerate dissent as they are likely to believe their verdicts are divinely inspired. They will dismiss any critic of their actions and will swing to swift action. What a man does is done by man. It has nothing to do with divinity. In the eyes of the Creator everybody is equal. And no-one is a direct representative of God after the prophets.

 

The Somali people applaud the peace agreement reached in Djibouti on 9 June 2008. It is a good start which paves the way for a lasting peace in Somalia. The situation is very intricate and complex, but because of the peace agreement a new beginning has been achieved. It looks the Courts’ side which was a party to the negotiations have come a long way. This peace agreement if unhindered will end the presence of the Ethiopian forces in Somalia. The Somali people recognize that the Courts’ leadership which has signed the peace accord has shown a willingness to put the national interests above personal gain. The people also recognize the endeavour of the TFG side headed by the Prime Minister Nur Adde to bring a lasting peace to Somalia. It is not wise to oppose this peace agreement at its embryonic stage. This would not serve in the best interest of our nation. The continuation of violence will only prolong the misery of our people and leave no option for Ethiopian other than to remain in Somalia.

 

It is always right to do what is in the best interest of our nation. We love our religion. We also love our nation. We know what works. Politics may not have delivered yet for the Somali people but that does not mean politics is the wrong application. It will depend on who is utilizing it. To govern well will no doubt require a deeper understanding of politics. It is important those who rule to be told when they are wrong. Good governing will need special skills. But any organization which rules through the use of religion will not bring Somalia any closer to the establishment of a better government. Let us remind ourselves that it is humans who run things (including governments) — not holy books. Even the holy words are subject to interpretation. It is not a secret that people interpret things differently. There is no doubt the Islamic Courts, during their short spell in the capital, have done a number of good things. They have also committed errors. Every nation has its judiciary (courts). But judiciary is best when it confines itself to legal matters. The question is: how to consolidate the good aspects of the Islamic Courts in the new Somali State? Sheikh Sharif has shown maturity as well as quick grasp of things. While rigidity and obduracy are the signs of bad leadership, open-mindedness and quick learning are the qualities of good leadership. In 2009, a unity government headed by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed is the way forward. To form and run an effective government, the nation will also require a capable Prime Minister. In my next piece let us explore how such a unity government can give Somalia the best of both worlds.

 

 

Abdullahi Dool

E-mail: Hornheritage@aol.com

[Member-sol-]

Let us be honest with our selves. The men who took up arms to fight the ethiopians are not communist, socialist, or capitalist.

 

infact they are not even what most of us called "moderates"

 

If the islamist are the only ones we see today taking up arms against the ethiopians, sacrificing their lives and wealth, then it's only fitting they decide the kind of government they will form.

[Sir-Qalbi-Adeyg]

^ They are also sacrificing innocent people's lives in the process, whether it's suicide bombings or stoning of mentally ill women. They are scum, and only a delusional moron would think they are capable of governing anything.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Peeps, theres is a place called afghanistan where, mutilations, stoning people to death, collapsing walls on people, beating old woman, having children stab others, beheadings and growing drugs to fund it all among many of your favorite activities is not only permissible but fashionable. so people, why impose that on people who don't want that or the "West". Or do all sane people a favor and behead your already!

[Member-sol-]

They have already proven they can govern and have brought much needed justice to areas under their control.

 

Examples are too many to cite, but they have removed hundreds of roadblocks, and have tamed road bandits. They have also stoped many tribal infighting, and made several tribes sign peace accords amongst each other.

 

The evidence is there for all to see, and only a person who opposes them based upon their ideology and beliefs, would question their ability to govern.

 

That said, humans are bound to make mistakes, but as muslims, it's the intention of the person that counts.

 

 

Bringing up cheap propaganda often cited by ant-muslim fanatics shows your kind of character.

[Khayr]

Originally posted by Deputy:

Khayr, brother come down here with the little people and realize that even if the islamists where to win the war outright for them to govern or for any part of their vision to be enacted a government suitable to the Somali people as they see fit will have to be devised.

Otherwise they will also prove to be an interregenum in Somalian history.

Truth be told saxib,

 

I don't think Somalis or most modern day muslims want Shariah/Islamic government. Reason being is they are happy with their lives and things such as privacy, freedom, tribalism etc. are sacred to them.

 

Also, when some muslims eschew for an "islamic government", often their image is of Utopia i.e. Economic prosperity (creation of jobs and wealth), healthcare, evening duugsi class etc.

 

In anycase, I was critiquing the article and not you saxib.

 

Fi Amanillah

[Khayr]

Originally posted by hamza9163:

That said, humans are bound to make mistakes, but as muslims, it's the intention of the person that counts.

 

 

Bringing up cheap propaganda often cited by ant-muslim fanatics shows your kind of character.

It instills doubts and fears in peoples minds.

You are what you think and see.

[Liqaye]

Khayrow I know you were referring to the article brother, just seemed that you were being a tad bit preachy my bad.

 

Abdullahi Dool does raise a good point and one that any one of Islamist persuasion needs to address before having any hope of convincing the majority of the Somali people to even look at islamic governance in somalia.

The shortcoming of the islamist program in somalia in the long run ultimately is the lack of success of applying descriptive prescription developed in Arabia in the diffrent historical, social, and cultural milieu that makes up somalia today.

 

Some like bashir Goth on Awdalnews exaggerate with poetic license on this shortcoming, but that it is there and that it has to be addressed, is going to be the defining struggle in the islamist project and in Somalia in general for the foreseeable future.