Dr. Michael A. Weinstein on Puntland election

[inspector22]

Somalia: Puntland's Peaceful Transfer of Power

16 Jan 16, 2009 - 2:58:13 AM

 

Report Drafted By:

Dr. Michael A. Weinstein

 

As south and central Somalia continued its downward spiral into political fragmentation during the first two weeks of January, the provisionally autonomous Puntland State in Somalia that takes up the northeast of post-independence Somalia conducted an electoral process that culminated in the selection by the sub-state's parliament of a new president, Dr. Abdirahman Mohamed "Farole," who replaced incumbent candidate Mohamed "Adde" Muse Hirsi in a peaceful transfer of power on January 8.

 

Puntland, which declared autonomy in 1998 under the leadership of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, who was its first president and, in 2004, became president of Somalia, was brought into existence as a means of insulating the northern ***** clan family from the troubles to the south. That strategy has proven, in the main to be successful; Puntland has not experienced the endemic conflicts characteristic of the central and southern regions of Somalia, did not undergo the Islamic Courts revolution of 2006 and the Ethiopian occupation that followed, and has remained relatively peaceful. Yet the sub-state has also faced an array of problems, including government corruption; hyper-inflation caused by massive printing of counterfeit currency; disputes over contracts made by Muse with foreign companies on petroleum exploration, livestock exportation, and infrastructure development; nonpayment of security forces and civil servants; territorial conflicts with its neighbor to the west, the self-declared independent Republic of Somaliland; and more recently an upsurge in organized criminal activity, including kidnapping, people smuggling and piracy, the latter being the only thing about Puntland that has captured the world's attention and, even then, the "international community" and international media barely mention Puntland when they address piracy.

 

During Muse's four-year presidential term, Puntland appeared to be sinking into instability, leading to Somaliland's successful initiative to re-take some of the disputed territory, which is inhabited by ***** sub-clans, thereby weakening Muse even further and adding to his growing unpopularity. By the fall of 2008, the few analysts who pay attention to Puntland were warning that the sub-state was in danger of collapse and of being drawn into the witches brew of clan rivalry, warlordism, external manipulation and Islamism. On November 21, Rashid Abdi, an analyst for the International Crisis Group, was expelled from Puntland for his judgment that "the state is actually at risk of collapsing and is at risk of the criminal network taking over." At that point, it became clear that Puntland's prospects for regaining a modicum of stability hinged on the 2009 presidential election, which nearly all observers and many Puntlanders believed would be manipulated or rigged by Muse to his advantage, leading to the sub-state's devolution into sub-clan fragmentation and its resultant vulnerability to external forces. That the electoral process eventuated in the opposite result - the defeat of Muse and institutional renewal - is testimony to the viability of Puntland's political system and to its social foundation in traditional Somali practices of dispute resolution, the latter of which works in favor of the argument that modernizing indigenous practices is more effective than the imposition of external models.

 

Puntland's Electoral Drama

 

 

Although Puntland's political class, including Farole, has consistently promised to devise a constitution that would implement the Western model of multi-party democracy, it was the sub-state's traditional model of sub-clan and regional representation, which is neither democratic nor authoritarian in the modern Western senses, that allowed the sub-state to unseat an unpopular and ineffective leader peacefully. In Puntland's political system, the 66 seats in the unicameral legislature are allocated to sub-clans, with members of parliament requiring the signed consent of the traditional leaders of their sub-clans (issims) in order to take office. For the purpose of selecting a president, the M.P.s become the electors, completing the process of indirect representation. An eight-member Commission for Ratification and Settlement (electoral commission), with one member from each of Puntland's seven regions and a chairman, arbitrates the process, validating candidates and resolving disputes.

 

The run-up to the presidential election did not begin auspiciously. On November 3, Puntland's security minister, Gen. Abdullahi Said Samatar, froze withdrawals from the state bank after complaints from opposition presidential candidates (numbering fifteen or more, depending on the count) that Muse was planning to use government funds to finance his campaign by paying off sub-clan leaders. On Nov 8, the conflict began in earnest when Muse announced that the government would appoint the electoral commission, promising that he would organize "peaceful elections." Immediately, six of the opposition candidates drafted a communique requesting seats on the commission, warning against the incitement of "hostilities" that would delay the election, and demanding that government funds not be used to finance campaigns. On Nov 13, Farole, the leading opposition candidate, arrived in Garowe, Puntland's political capital, from Australia and said that he would not oppose Muse's move to name the electoral commission. Nonetheless, apprehension persisted among other candidates that Muse would choose the members of the commission from his administration.

 

On November 16, Muse announced the commission's membership, naming as its chair his policy adviser, Barkhad Ali Salah. Responding quickly, four candidates in Garowe and two in Puntland's economic capital, Bossasso, held joint press conferences denouncing Muse's selections. Farole changed his position, rejecting the commission on the grounds that it was composed of government employees,

 

close relatives of officials, and campaign managers. Ahmed Said O'Nur, who later dropped out of the race, added that the selection process for the commission should have been based on a consultative process between the government, traditional sub-clan leaders, and opposition candidates. Reformist candidate Nuradin Adan Diriye expressed "surprise" that a presidential candidate - Muse - would "single-handedly appoint the commission."

 

On November 17, Puntland's vice-president, Hassan Dahir Afqura, responded to the opposition, claiming that the electoral commission was "lawful" and that it would check the "legality" of the prospective M.P.s proposed by the sub-clans. On November 20, Muse issued a decree banning presidential candidates from campaigning with armed support in order to halt their practice of taking their sub-clan militias with them for protection against possible government interference.

 

 

With tensions rising, Abdullahi Yusuf, still considered by many to be Puntland's power broker, arrived in the sub-state on November 30 to meet with the presidential candidates. Once Muse's opponent, Yusuf had become his ally and defended Muse's electoral commission. The opposition rejected Yusuf's position, counter-proposing that a new commission be formed that would be named by the issims and calling for an "all-Puntland force" to provide security rather than government forces, which they distrusted and which had impelled them to resort to their sub-clan militias for protection.

 

Into early December, Yusuf persisted in his position that "the government has the right to appoint the election commission," which, he said, had no power to reject any M.P. who was supported by clan elders and was not a "criminal or terrorist." Yusuf promised to support any leader who would "work for the unity of Puntland," but responded equivocally when asked about the possibility of Muse using public funds for his campaign. The chair of the electoral commission, Salah, assured Puntlanders that plans for the election were "proceeding well."

 

While the government and Yusuf were jousting with the opposition candidates over the electoral commission's selection process and composition, the issims began meeting on December 5 and concluded their deliberations on December 15, when they issued a statement that mainly affirmed the positions of the opposition candidates and called for the formation of an all-Puntland security force under government control until December 31, when authority would be transferred to the issims, who would hand the force over to the new president after his election was confirmed on January 8. The issims also demanded that no public funds be used to finance Muse's campaign and that the electoral commission be reformed with seven members - Salah would remain the chair and represent the Bari region; members representing the Nugal, Mudug, and Ayn regions would be chosen by the opposition; and members representing the Sool, Sanaag, and Karkar regions would be named by the government.

 

Speaking for the opposition on December 16, Farole welcomed the issims' statement, adding that the candidates accepted a government majority on the electoral commission and noting that the issims are "the elders for the leadership." Farole said that the opposition candidates had asked the issims to "render a judgment" and that they had the constitutional authority "to make a final decision on all disagreements." There was no response from Muse to the issims' decision.

 

The intervention of the issims was the decisive moment in Puntland's electoral process and showed the underlying strength of its traditional political system. Had it not been for the incorporation of traditional authority into that system as a safety net, the process would have been vulnerable to fractious partisanship, sub-clan rivalry, and possible descent into armed confrontation or the success of Muse's attempts to stack the process in his favor. The persistence and viability of institutionalized tradition provided the means for peaceful conflict resolution.

 

The fruits of the issims' intervention became manifest on December 20, when an agreement on a reformed electoral commission was announced after negotiations led by Puntland's minister of family affairs, Asha Gele. The agreement represented a second compromise of the opposition candidates' demands, allowing

 

Muse to select four members of the commission and the issims three. In addition, the formation of an all-Puntland security force was not addressed. Nonetheless, the opposition had won a victory; Muse had been constrained to concede control over the electoral process and, from then on, his fortunes fell and the road to a fair election had been opened, with normal political bargaining replacing disputes over process.

 

Security concerns, however, persisted, and, on December 25, the new police chief of Garowe, Eydarus Haji Hersi, chaired a meeting on security for community leaders and presidential candidates, warning them that the streets of the city were choked with government forces and militias guarding candidates, creating the conditions for a breakdown of order. Yet through the week before the electoral commission ratified the membership of parliament on December 31, the actors maintained restraint and a security problem did not surface.

 

The ratification of parliament brought praise for the electoral commission from Farole, who commented that "everything was done on time." Yusuf, who had just arrived in Puntland after resigning as Somalia's president under pressure from the "international community," addressed the new parliament and promised the opposition candidates that he would be a "neutral statesman." In short order,

 

parliament unanimously elected Abdirashid Mohamed Hirsi as speaker and, on January 7, the electoral commission issued a list of nine authorized presidential candidates, the field having been narrowed down by negotiations within sub-clans.

 

The stage was set for the presidential poll, which took place according to schedule and which was won in the third round of voting by Farole, who gained a margin of 49-7 over his remaining rival Gen. Abdullahi Ahmed Ilkajir; Muse had been eliminated in the first round. Puntland had survived a serious challenge and its institutions had prevailed.

 

Policy Issues

 

Although the strength of institutionalized tradition was the key to the success of Puntland's electoral process, of almost equal importance was the policy consensus among the candidates that reflected a broader consensus in the sub-state's society. Much of the opposition candidates' campaigns was focused on Muse's abuses of power - alleged misappropriation of funds, failure to pay civil servants and security forces, making deals with foreign companies without consultation, permitting organized crime to flourish, allowing Somaliland to seize territories, and allowing or authorizing the printing of counterfeit currency. On the positive side, candidates touted their abilities to rectify those abuses, their leadership backgrounds and professional qualifications, and their commitment to defend Puntland's integrity and to further its economic development.

 

A mentality of reform pervaded the opposition campaigns, rather than a disposition to present divisive ideological alternatives. Islamism was off the table, as was independence or surrender of autonomy. There was a division between old-guard and new-guard candidates, but that did not rise to the level of substantive policy differences. In part, the predominant reformist temper was due to a broad agreement in Puntland's society that preserving the sub-state's autonomy was its overriding vital interest, which was identified with the deeper social interest in preserving the security and economic advancement of the northern ***** sub-clans against pressure from Somaliland and instability to the south. The protective interest in Puntland's society should not be discounted when arguments are advanced that Puntland might or should serve as a model for the rest of post-independence Somalia, where particular circumstances are not the same.

 

As a former finance minister and planning minister in Muse's administration, who broke with the former president in 2006 over the latter's resource deals with foreign companies, Farole is a member of the old guard who has a long track record and is considered to be a moderate reformer, reflecting Puntland's social consensus. With experience in finance and banking, Farole has promised to develop the economy by both nurturing the free market and improving public services. His first stated priority is to enhance security and diminish the power of criminal networks. He has advanced a harder line than Muse on

 

Somaliland, promising to re-take the disputed territories, but has also said that no moves would be made without a "strategic plan founded on consultation."

 

Nonetheless, Farole's stance on the disputed territories has already evoked a response from Somaliland, whose foreign minister, Abdullahi Mohamed Du'ale said that Farole's remarks were a "new development" and that "governance cannot be built on clans."

 

On the largest issues of state structure, Farole has affirmed a commitment "never to allow anyone to violate the federal system" in any emergent government for Somalia, going so far as to recommend that the northern and central regions to the south form regional governments on Puntland's model as a prelude to a "national unity government." He has also stated that a central government for Somalia cannot manage resource policy exclusively. Finally, Farole has promised that Puntland will have a new constitution and a multi-party political system before the end of his four-year term.

 

Conclusion

 

It remains to be seen how successful Farole will be in implementing his program. Corruption has become endemic in Puntland's government, criminal enterprises have become rooted in the society and have support in sub-clans and within the business community, and economic development is unlikely to take off quickly due to Muse's legacy. Indeed, Muse announced on December 12 that he had decided not to return to his home in Canada, but instead would open an office in Bossasso, where he would continue his efforts to gain support for petroleum exploration, adding that Farole should honor the deals that the former president had signed.

 

In response, Farole, said that Muse would be made a "special adviser on development issues."

 

In the sphere of external relations, it is unlikely that Farole will push against Somaliland in the short term, due to the higher priority of rehabilitating Puntland's security forces and restoring the sub-state's finances. There is also the question of what role, if any, Yusuf will play in Puntland's politics now that he has been excluded from influence in the south.

 

It is likely that the decline of ***** influence in the south will reinforce the commitment to "federalism" and will forestall Puntland's participation should a problematic "unity government," which is being pushed by the "international community," gain traction. On the issue of constitutional change, Farole might do well to remember that his victory was facilitated by Puntland's present tradition-based system.

 

The moderate reformer has the advantage of not awakening fear and determined resistance in society, and the disadvantage of being unable to act boldly to change existing patterns of behavior. When faced with having to clean up the mess made by his predecessor, the moderate reformer is doubly challenged; in this sense, Farole is in a similar situation to that of the new president of the United States, Barack Obama, who will also be constrained to delay his reforms in order to concentrate on damage control.

 

However much Farole may accomplish, Puntland has gained by having effected a peaceful transfer of power within its established institutions. After a period of looming collapse, it has come out stronger and less vulnerable - more capable to defending its perceived interests.

 

Report Drafted By:

Dr. Michael A. Weinstein, Professor of Political Science, Purdue University

weinstem@purdue.edu

 

http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somali a_27/Somalia_Puntland_s_Peaceful_Transfer_of_Power .shtml

[General Duke]

Puntland elections have had a profoundly posative effect.