A Day of Infamy

[Paragon]

Strategically, isn't obvious to minimize the gaps between your batallions by reducing their expansive occupation? For better concentration of power and cohesion. Its chess, mate. A deadly one at that. Let us see what happens in few days.

 

Don't ululate too soon boys, you might just lose your tongues as a result.

[Pi]

I think the courts will put up a final fight. Anyways, whatever happens, one thing is clear: their power was really exaggerated. If not, why this sudden change in military tactics? The bravado didnt match the ability.

 

I think samuriaW said it pretty good. A check-mate is not in the forecast given the positions of the pieces.

[me]

Pi, we can all see what kind of war this will become. The ICU tactics are good so far. This will be an guerrilla/insurghency ala Iraq or Afghanistan and it would be only foolish to sacrifice trained men in open battles, when you know what kind of war you will be fighting.

 

Give it time.

[miles-militis]

Paragon – In the game of chess, chessmate only happens when the only option open for the retreating party is to concede. I see that not on either side unless of course you wish to introduce a new move ala IUC, matey! Aways is on retreat with badly bruised ego not discounting casualties and lost territories, but has a plenty of room to maneuver provided he stirs from the drunken stupor of jihadism and false prophesy of the good Almighty being on his side. Yey is on the offense with his units in tact, and could only jeopardize his stakes by throwing caution to the wilderness slipping into Aways’s flip-flops of yesterdays. I see that not happening.

 

Now, indulge me, what possessed you to declare chessamte in the game?

 

And by the way, the term “ululu’ is generally reserved for the “ladies” in the time of war. You would not be as bold as to equate your adversaries to be “ladies”, would you mate?

 

And may I be bold enough as to enquire what happened to the banner you have been sporting lately?

Tata…

[Baashi]

First off my heart goes out to Rahima for her loss. The loss of loved ones and grieving the death of young family member (I assume he was young) is a very painful. May Allah ease your pain and May Allah grant him the Janah. I missed the post.

 

SW,

I see. It is too soon to make the call though. Ethiopians seem to be tilting the balance of power to the TFG’s favor. I agree with you on that point. I have to disagree the domino effect that you are predicting though. My reading of the situation is that UIC will lose a large swath of territory to the TFG, warlords, and Ethiopian forces. Benadir, however, is not in play.

 

Suppose Ethio-backed TFG and its coalition of convenience (warlords such as Qaybdiid and Mohamed Dhere) manage to add Jowhar, Kismayo, and Marka to their column. Can they keep their new gains without Ethio backing? How long is Ethiopia willing to commit its meager resources to a what, for all purpose and intent, looks like a protracted guerilla war?

 

To defeat UIC completely, Benadir must fall. Benadir being out of the question, UIC has the ability to wage a guerrilla war against muscular Ethiopia. If Ethiopia withdraws, UIC can take on TFG quite easily. In this context, Col Uways is very much in the game and doesn’t need Col. Yussuf kindness or generosity in order to safe his neck.

 

Add the possibility of TFG internal daemons rearing their ugly heads again. Not to mention the loose cannon such as Mr. Dhere getting all worked up again. Where does that leave the TFG’s wish to preside a transitional government before its tenure gets expired? Or UIC plan to pacify large swath of the country and bring under Shariah rule?

 

Stalemate at the end? Yes! Unwinnable war? Absolutely! Possibility of all the above-mentioned points are what makes the ceasefire all more urgent now. Both camps have vested interest in resolving the issues in a peaceful manner. They both just cannot achieve their stated goals through war. They are kidding themselves if they are thinking this way.

 

TFG is nothing without Benadir and Benadir is not your cup of tea. Time is the essence here. TFG doesn't have much time. Ethiopia might cannot deliver Benadir and without Benadir, TFG is not a whole. There is no running from the facts. Nothing short of negotiated settlement with UIC can crown Col. Yussuf.

 

On the other hand UIC cannot attain its stated goals without resolving core issues of Somali problem. Somalis are a divided nation and the tribal culture today trumps Islam. Guns don't indoctrinate people, education and orientation do the job. UIC will thrive in stable and peaceful Somalia if it reaches a settlement with its nemessis - a deal that will allow UIC's political platform to be part and parcel of the political structure of the post-conflict Somalia.

 

Ceasefire is a must. Anything short of that means one thing and only one thing: protracted civil war sustained by proxy war. Somalis will be caught in the middle. Not a good prospect.

[Paragon]

SumaraiW: Now, indulge me, what possessed you to declare chessamte in the game?

SumaraiW, as elequent and foolproof as your arguments seem, I think you have one ingredient missing in your considerations. Firstly, the current fight came as a result of Indha-Cade's decleration. A hasty move from him without the consultation of either Aweys or Sharif, who were not geared towards the decleration of war; their's was much more sophisticated and well-planned with resources and personnel on their way. The UIC thus fought in an unready state, while wrongly following Indhacade's signals.

 

Secondly, in scenarios of war, whether one is prepared or not, defence is always set up at places deemed strategic. The courts thus, as is natural to military tactics, have recalled their troops to fortify their treasured castle- which may as well be Mogadishu. Furthermore, the last few days' retreat has been a very valuable learning curve that adds to the military knowledge of the courts' top personnel. What you must pay attention to is the stand the courts are likely to take in the coming days and their deployed tactics. I tell you, whoever comes hastily, returns hastily. The courts have learnt not to be hasty this time, but the Ethiopians have yet to learn the same lesson.

 

And by the way, the term “ululu’ is generally reserved for the “ladies” in the time of war. You would not be as bold as to equate your adversaries to be “ladies”, would you mate?

Oh, do you think it takes boldness to equate the ethio-cheerings in this forum to ululation? Not really. I will ask you, what sort of an individual is the 'man' who becomes submssive to the enemy and takes him as his master? To call such a man a lady is indeed a respect, for he is the lowest of the low.

[Taliban]

Originally posted by Pi:

I think the courts will put up a final fight. Anyways, whatever happens, one thing is clear: their power was really exaggerated. If not, why this sudden change in military tactics? The bravado didnt match the ability.

There's no such thing as "final fight." It's not in the equation. You stay alive, you live to fight another day. The era of final fights is over; this is the era of insurgencies and guerrillas. This will be a long protracted fight. And you are wrong; the power of the ICU wasn't really exaggerated. This sudden change in military tactics was prompted by a sudden change in the balance of power. The TFG has been given a lease of life by Ethiopia, AU, the US and the EU.

[Khalaf]

Rahima muninah he who intends to preform jihad should get what he has intended for nothing to be sad about, but be happy, ppl die of car accidents ect, nothing better then to die in battle....may Allah award him jannah.

 

Massa stories like that sxb is good for the impressionable minds like me who have qabilaysts around them and Allahu-bune only isolates other muslims.

 

 

Baashi u right adeer, but that is why these movements tho their objective (islamic state is haaq) never gain victory. Let us ask ourselves why islamic movements never succeed in building a modern islamic state. Anyone?

[LANDER]

It's one thing to accept weapons from Ethiopians, engage in business trade with them, accept "military advice" from them, but to have them do all the dirty work for you while you take picture ops with your old fat bellies hanging out is utterly digusting and cowardly in every sense of the word. For too long many hypocrits have claimed to be 'nationalist' and 'true sons of somalia' and have time and again lectured us about somali brotherhood and the 'bond' that is shared between all somali peoples. Today, if their true colours are not exposed than I have really lost all hope in the sense of honor and honesty among somalis. In this scenario pretentious 'neutrality' really is another code word for 'tribalism' if not ouright selfishness and complete disregard for the bigger picture. The ICU may not be perfect and at times may say and do things that are simply puzzling and makes you wonder if they are aware of the geo-political realities of these times, nevertheless they have brought unprecedented stability not seen in over a decade in the south. Furthermore, their political agenda for Somalia truly seems to be a national one and they have made efforts (for better or worst) to reach out to all parts they perceive to be to be part of the 'Somali Republic'. This shows they take their plans for national cohesion and their vision to use religion to unite a fragmented nation to task. That alone is 10 times more work than was done by all of the past 13 editions of the TNGs or TFGs. My political views may not agree with ICU plans but I do have a certain level of respect for them given the present circumstances. If some of you 'political scholars' hell bent on schooling in the art of 'negotiated settlements' were honest with yourselves you might see these developments differently.

 

That said, I think this battle is far from over. I'm not sure what the ICU was thinking leaving itself out in the open vulnerable to jets and other conventional warfarre tactics, but the real war will begin if and when the ethiopians decide to enter Mogadishu. will the ICU start to realize its strenght lies in guerilla warfare? who knows. The only thing that is certain is that as the war progresses to the major urban centers, the civilian casualties will mount quickly only adding fuel to the fire.

[miles-militis]

Baashi - I am in total agreement of the highlighted concerns with the exception of urban combat in Mogadishu, thusly my predicting of stalemate. Let me elaborate – Mogadishu, if recent news bulletin is anything to go by is presently teetering with armed gangs of no discipline or allegiance dying to see the back of the faith lords and their legacy. Further, segments of the indigenous Mogadishu inhabitants who fancy themselves as the rightful lords of the city are in a hurry saddling up the horses wanting a piece of the action. Furthermore, moderate segments of the IUC, who mind you wanted no further offences or ultimatums, are presently speaking truce through diplomatic channels to rid the city of the hard-line elements of the IUC including the big dog himself. Hence, Banadir might not be what you envisage, for it has own deamons suckling the Kerberos’s cuddly udder roaring recklessly day and night.

 

I further agree the TFG is fraught with contradictions in its midst as much as the IUC are, and are likely to squander recent wins in the battlefield if rogue elements including the named ones are not restrained – past experience teaches us that to be a remote possibility as they are neither pot-trained nor could they be properly tamed.

 

However, ceasefire is not quite on the scene yet unless of course you wish to hasten the castration of the king in front of its raven queen. You see before we get to the negotiating table and the sirens of ceasefire could be alarmed, both sides ought to come to the realisation that dialogue is [the] exit. Mind you, it was the faith lords with their preconditions who closed that door last time around favouring combat to pecking. Will the TFG slip into that mode now, I wonder?

 

Thus far, neither side reached the boiling point, and since hands had switched since yesterday with the faith lords being terribly bruised, matters might come to a head sooner than predicted. Again, the hype factor of the might of the faith lords [i wish they did not believe their own lies], the involvement of foreign elements and Arab injections via Eretria courtesy of Al Jazira had been overplayed excusing IGAD, Ethiopia in particular riding on the back of their remote sponsor, the US sanction the use of excessive force and the bombardment of IUC bases to oblivion. Again, you overemphasise Eritrea’s might, commitment and marriage to the IUC. I believed it was a bluff which only encouraged the bullies for only things to end in melancholy.

 

Paragon - I shall pay attention to that.

"...What you must pay attention to is the stand the courts are likely to take in the coming days and their deployed tactics."

 

And I shall delay responding to this assertion for another day, shall I?

"...what sort of an individual is the 'man' who becomes submssive to the enemy and takes him as his master?"

 

Shall leave there for today,

Tata…

[Taliban]

Originally posted by Khalaf:

Let us ask ourselves why islamic movements never succeed in building a modern islamic state. Anyone?

It's not because Islamic movements cannot succeed in building a modern Islamic state; they can succeed. They haven't so far succeeded because obstacles are put in their ways to fail. Obstacles in the form of armed oppositions formed and supported by the West, interferences, sanctions, embargoes, iwm. On top of that, they are not allowed to exist openly by the West and its proxies (secular regimes). When Islamic movements are militarily able to guarantee their existence openly, then building a successful Islamic state will be a piece of cake. Simply put, they aren't meant to succeed, but that's about to change.

[Khalaf]

Sxb that is right, those same obstacles existed during the time of nabi scw, and other islamic eras, the difference they played smart.... look at the icu for example the entire country (every clan) welcomed them and wouldve followed, knowing the clan sympathies in somalis they shouldve recurited leaders from all regions, a man sees his blood mate in Yeey for example looks at the leaders of icu and cs none....two they declare a jihad against ethios (which means the international community),when no one recognizes u and thinks u are terrorists, start aggression on weak gov which was willing to talk, make fitnah in kismayo and set intentions on puntland....mistrust of other somalis begins after that, and they become open easy targets and now ethios has green light to occupy somalia, and as in mideast other regions of somali will let the south region burn no? dont tell me there will be brotherhood, PL and SL fighting the ethios from the rear? the falistines been asking that for half of century where is our help......are we ready to become falistine in the horn? the ethios dont give shh about somalia somali wa somali, they will bring aids and rape our women, ect........but we cant c that now.

[guleedyare]

baashe waa arin aad looga naxo in maanta muqdisho oo aan waligeed amxaaro soo weerarin ay ku garaacaan diyaarado. waxaa nasiib daro ah in ilaa 3 kun in ka badan oo wiil ay dagaalo cusub ayku dhaawac maan ama ku dhintaan waxa aan la garanayn. Arintu waxay ku qurux badnayd in ay labada nine abdulaahi iyo aways ay hishiiyaan xili hore siiba intii ayan ciidanka aways badhabo weerarin.

soomaalidu waxaa ilaa iyo hada ayan kala aqoon. xalka iyo xaqa. dawlad xaqa waxaa u danbaysay tii cabdirishiid iyo aadan cade. wixii ka danbeeyay ragbaa xal xaq mooday oo dowlad ka dhigtay. Hadab intaan xoogii wanaagsanaa markii hore ee xamar xoreeyay ayan baydhabo weerarin baa hishiisku ku wanaagsanaa waxa hishiiskaa diiday waan ognahay waxa isu qaatay hiilkii Ilaahay iyo kaalmadiisii is yiri waad muuqunin kartaan Dawlada kumeel gaarka ah. waa indha cade oo 7 casho u qabtay waa isaga ninka yiri waxay wadaadadu bakhti bay noo afuufeen oo ictiraafeen waa isaga hadalkaa waa dhagaysanayay wuxuu iska dhigay inuusan kamid ahayn wadaadada waana tii marwalba shacab badani lahaayeen indha cade wadaad ka fog. maanta dagaalku wali mid dhow oo sidaa ku dhamaanaya ma ah. xamar iyo shacabkay wadaadadu hoosgalayaan wayna adag tahay inay taasi si yar ku dhamaato. waa nasiib daro maalintay guul somaliya ugu dhowayd waa hadii 61 nin ee laga soodoortay qabiilka moqdisho lagu wareejin lahaa wadaadada xamar. qisaas ilaa dhaxal inta aan ka ahayn siyaasad iyo dhaqaale kitaabka lagu dhaqmi lahaa. inta kuwaana xaq iyo daliilo cad oo lagu maamule laga heliyo.

ethopia xamar ma duqayseen hadii ayan green light ka haysan maraykan. shiikh aways wuxuu tagay masar wuxuu la kulmay muqaabaraadka masar Arinta aam aadka uga naxay baytaasi ahayd wixii uu u sheegay muqaabaraadka masarana CIA Maraykana waa og yihiin. Markaa hadalkayga aakhirkii waxaan ku gaba gabanayaa khasaare kale iyo dhibaato iyo jab uun bay ku dhamaatay . Haday xaq yihiina ilaa iyo 91 wadaadadu maamulkoodu ma jabeen. laakiin wiilasha yaryar ee aan kamid ahaan jiray ee magaca iyo kalimada ilaahay inay kor noqoto u dagaalamay oo u dhintay iyaga jano iyo baraare baaan u rajaynayaa. gushii Ethopia ayay raacday.Cabdulaahi 40 sano buu xukun doon ahaa xasan daahir markuu indha cade ka dhigtay wasiirka amaanka malintaasay ii cadaatay inuu isuguna xukun doon yahay . markii hore lakiin waxaan oran jiray midna bariiskaan la cuni lahaa midna salaadaan ku dabo tukan lahaa. Baashe aan adiga kugu soo celiyee rabi baa garan halkay ku dhamaane bal sadaali oo maxaad qiyaastii aad is leedahay bay ku dhamaan.

[Baashi]

Guuleedayre, abowgiis waxay dhib ka joogtaa Kaligi Muslim baa haw kugu soo oranaya hadaad sidas bay ila tahay tiraahdo. Eeda saa la iigu sayrayo hadde waabad aragtaa. Waxa uu Alle-U-Baahane ku kalaamay waad akhrisay. Awoowe sidee wax loola wadaagayaa nin aaminsan in isir iyo hayb dhan ay shayaadiin yihiin.

 

Annigu shaqsiyan IndhaCadde waligay uma aqoonsan mutadayin. Kolay innagu daahirka yaynu xukminaynaa. Ninkaasu af iyo addinba waxii aan ka aragnay kuma sifaysna hadyul nabi. Shaqsiyan qiil waxan isu tusay maadaama nimanka wadaadu cadawgoodu badan yahay in ay furan tahay in ay la heshiiyaan ninkii iyagga u hiilinaya. Waswaas badan baa i galay dhowr jeer. Haddana waxaan uga haray in waqtiga lagu jiro uu yahay mid adag.

 

Awoowe gadaal sheekadu waxay ka noqon Ilaahay baa garanaya laakiin sida aan is leeyahay belo yaa dhacday. Cadow aan kuu turuhayn iyo mid ku yaqaan oo diirada u sida oo leh halkaan bay mareen baa la isku saliday. Waxan qabaa maalin kale haba joogtee maalinka maantay ah dib gurusho xeel dagaal waxay ku dhaanto garanmayo.

 

Sida ay ila tahay awoowe haddii ay suurto gal tahay waxaan is leeyahay in heshiis la dalbo yaa fiican si loo badbaado. Waxan aaminsan nahay dawladda Somalia u dhallan doonto qaab iyo cudud aan uga qaybgalno in lala haro oo ragga birta aan la wada saarin. Soomaali hadaan aqaan waa wax ba'ay oo kolka xaajadu xumaato waa sarifmaan.

[Baashi]

SW,

I guess we reached the end of the road my man. Let's wait and see what dread tomorrow may bring. I'm holding onto every bit of hope that folks in charge will see the light and bring this cycle of idiocy to an end by declaring ceasefire followed by a negotiated settlement.

 

Originally posted by LANDER:

If some of you 'political scholars' hell bent on schooling in the art of 'negotiated settlements' were honest with yourselves you might see these developments differently.

Welcome Lander. Take a breath and calm down. Better? Good. How different would you like us look at the situation? Before you make a fool out of yourself plz read the post in its entirety and then share your wisdom cuz you might end up pointing an angle we've already covered.

 

For a brief recap, UIC's success in bringning peace to Benadir has been acknowledged. Its political platform and its stated goals have won my approval and support. To say I have respect for the cause and principles in whose name they are fighting for is understatement.

 

From the get-go, I condemned Ethiopian interferences in our domestic affairs. My repeated dissaproval of TFG's collusion with Ethiopian establishment is a matter of record. Likewise, at the outset, I disagreed UIC impatient "Jihad" declaration on Ethiopia for I thought that was a blunder of first order. Now they are in a fight against a resourcefull enemy, I thought that it is in their interest to accept a ceasefire.

 

Do you disagree with that assessment? Be my guest. Do you see contradictions in my conclusions and my stated Islamist/Somaliweyn principles in my posts? Please highlight them. If you do that with straight face you will have contributed to the discussion and by extension exposed a hypocrite.

 

It shouldn't be difficult! Are you up to the challenge boy? Anyone? Noh? Very well let's refrain from I'm holier than thee BS ala Alle-U-Baahane style. This is a "put up or shut up" challenge!