A Day of Infamy

[xiinfaniin]

It's a day of infamy! But Baashow, this war, though a bit hasty, is a just war.

 

Scrape away its inflated political layers and you get two diametrically opposed sides fiercely fighting for the control of the south: Islamic Courts and Ethiopian government. Ethiopia power and military reach is not insurmountable and I believe in the end the Courts will come out on top and emerge as the victor of this war. That may take months or even years, but it will and must happen. Ceasefire is not feasible now for two reasons. For one, TFG as a framework for reconciliation is null and void. In fact, the first casualty of this war has been the old man and his TFG! Secondly, Ethiopia, unless violently repelled, will continue to grab more land and let that inexistent (politically) entity claim it as a bargaining chip. In the coming days and weeks (quite possibly) Ethiopia will make a significant push in to the south and it’s even feasible that Kismayo could fall. That however wont represent a defeat and the Courts will continue to fight and eventually drive Ethiopia out. Unless that happens peace remains afar, i say!

[Castro]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

It's a day of infamy! But Baashow, this war, though a bit hasty, is a just war.

Xiinow, atheer, you're wise beyond your years and I agree with all that you said. My crystal ball tells me the same thing. But please tell me why the leader(s) of the ICU decided to take this colossal strategic misstep? I know why the TFG is doing what it's doing but what possible motivation could the ICU have? Why now? Did they not believe the Ethiopians would call their bluff? Were they over confident of their power? Did the Ethiopians use both A/Y and the ICU's cries of Jihad to capitalize on this like the Americans did of 9/11 and Israelis of the kidnapped soldier? Was this invasion planned and rehearsed before the TFG was a twinkle in A/Y's eye?

 

By playing into his hands, and in this age of "war on terror", is the ICU the best Christmas gift an Ethiopian leader could have?

[xiinfaniin]

Originally posted by Castro:

But please tell me why the leader(s) of the ICU decided to take this colossal strategic misstep?

 

That’s a very good question to whose answer only few know yaa Castro! What I know though (I suspect you know it as well) is that ICU has two components to it. One is militaristic in its political outlook and adventurous in nature. The likes of Turk, Ayrow, and Afghani represent it. This wing of the Courts always wanted to fight with Ethiopia and liberate ******. They never appreciated the value of having peace talks with the TFG. The other component of the ICU is represented by the likes of Hasan Dahir, Sharif, and Janaqow. They are realist and wanted [edit]to reach a political settlement with the TFG for the good of the Somalia and for building a legitimate platform for political Islam in the future. I think those who wanted a war with our historical enemy won the day and outmaneuvered the other wing of the Courts!

 

There are other factors that aided this group and hasten this war. TFG’s insistence on Ethiopia’s presence did not give Sheekh Hasan a room to maneuver. Courts could not compromise on this issue for they correctly see Ethiopia as a part of Somalia’s problem, and an obstacle to peace.

 

^^^ that’s an educated guess yaa Castro!

[Centurion]

So how deep is this rift in the UIC?

 

If it is significant, UIC might collapse as a result of this war, and seperate into its different elements; the moderate realists and the 'extremists'.

 

And then we return to anarchy.

[Castro]

^ The rift may widen as the losses and retreat will be blamed on the adventurous wing. The West and the Arab league will appeal to the other camp of the Courts Union and try to further alienate the military wing. Then the military wing of the Courts Union will simultaneously fight on three fronts: the Ethiopians, the treacherous TFG and now, their own broken part of the ICU.

 

I know that's an unlikely (and disastrous) outcome but it's possible. These are indeed the birth pangs of a new Horn.

 

Xiinow, is this the end of the ICU? That means they have lasted shorter than the Isbaaro kings or the TFG.

 

A/Y should have died in that decapitation car bomb a few months ago. Laakinse wixii xun ba wadku ma karo.

[xiinfaniin]

Not as deep as some might wish yaa Centurion!

One encouraging fact is that ICU has been very civil about it and tolerated a set of diverse views! It’s natural for such ideological convictions to seep in to the strategic planning of any organization. ICU is no different. What ever caused this major war to come this, today I believe they are all united to confront Ethiopia and defeat it.

 

Castro, no this is not the end of the ICU. They have just started adeer. Indeed ICU will get a recruitment boost within the country and a logistical and moral support from abroad! This war will negatively impact Puntland and kill the TFG politically, if not milaterily. In the final analaysis ICU and its legacy would have a permanent footprint in somali politics and history!

 

See waaye adeer, they have just started!

[QabiilDiid]

How Careys Ciise (Alle ha naxaiistee) sees it when it comes to this, waryaa Baashe:

 

Ga gabay baa laga gala******Gawaan waa lagu kufaa

Gabiib waa la cuskadaa *****Gow waa laga dhacaa

 

Ga’dii kale waxaan lahaa

 

Kol waa gaajo iyo dhereg**KOL WAA GUUN IYO GUHAAD

Kol waa roob soo gudciyey****ABAAR XOOLUHU GO’EEN

Waayuun labadiis galin ***ADDUUN GEERI IYO NOLOL

Mid uun baa kula gudban eh**GUMEYSI IYO GOBANIMO

 

LABO LAYS GARAB DHIGAAaaaaaaa????

[Intel]

Could do better Saaxib...

Iam from that the family

and I don't share Yeey's misadventure

12 brothers ( all in their 20s) from that family left Australia and NZ last night to 'defend' their land and people

 

whereas our Alle-ubaahne can only talk **** from the comfort of his home..

[Rahima]

^May Allah give them victory, either jannatul firdows or a safe return. Aamiin.

[Cindrella]

^Amiine...so many lives will be lost in the war may they all be granted jahhan.

[Rahima]

I cry over the lost brothers as i have family member who have died, laakiin i am just as disgusted by the munaafiqiin running around choosing to side with filthy kufaar over their brothers. That more than anything kills me for as Allah has said the shuhadaa are not dead but with Him.

[Cindrella]

We just pray for peace abaayo. Somali brother blood are being spilled everydays. Not to mention the innocent thats caught in between.I am ashamed other somalis enjoying the death of another somali life.

[AYOUB]

Originally posted by Alle-ubaahne:

Saaxiib walaahi inaanan ka wadin qabiilka aad kasoo jeedid, ee waxaan ka wadaa qabiilka sheydaanka oo noqday hal qoys, maantana dhibka soomaaliya heysta waa kaas. Inkastoo qabiilada soomaalida ay ku kala fiican yihiin waxyaabaha qaarkood, hadana waxaa jira qabiilo dhan oo xumaanta iyo ilaah la dirirka u batay dhankeeda.

Please don't insult our intelligence. Everyone knows what you meant and you can either stand by or apologise and retract what you said. It wasn't tongue-in-cheeck and we couldn't all 've misunderstood you. Dhaarta beenta ah baa ugu daran.

 

Che

Whether ICU succeeds depends on how much unequivocal support they can gather from people like yourself.

[Baashi]

SW,

Good to see you back buddy. Dhalaanka goluhu iyaguu u xiran yahay waayadan. Bal ila yurree awoowe! Fadlan share your reading of the rise of the two colonels – the men of the moment. Don’t you forget the jacbur I served for the dhalaan’s consumption is a Waxa-la-Yirri version, not an authenticated biography of the colonels.

 

As to the proposed ceasefire, I stand by it firmly. Funny that you are predicting a deadlock. The fact that there will be a deadlock strengthens the case for ‘cease and desist’ order. The need for a suspension of active hostilities followed by a negotiated settlement is a case that's very hard to dismiss. The contestants’ willingness to heed that call will be problematic especially when one side seems to be gaining more territory at the expense of the other. But still that’s the only way out.

 

Castro iyo Xiin,

I beg to differ. This war was a war of choice. Today it has become a resistance war and it will stay so as long as Ethiopia's agression continues. Ceasefire is a must. There is no other way around if you want UIC's political platform to keep its teeth.

 

Ethiopians WILL NOT invade Somalia - they just can't. They will, however, try to tilt the political and military balance in the South to its friends. Colonel Abdullahi will do his utmost to ride Ethiopian might to eliminate his opponents. That’s the name of the game. That’s my reading. On the other hand, UIC knows that Benadir is safe. They will make their stand elsewhere. If all else fail they will use guerilla hit-and-run tactic. Either way you look at it, Somalis in general will be the sole losers.

 

TFG, despite of its association with warlords, is now an internationally recognized entity. It has the backing of some Somali clans and regional powers as well. It is said to have the loyalty of one of the recovery zones up in the North. This fact makes them a formidable player in Somali politicking.

 

I share the sentiment that in the wake of Ethiopian aggression and its involvement in the current conflict, it effectively became a faction of the conflict. It is no longer a reconciliation government.

 

I’m of the opinion that until the TFG mandate expires, TFG will be part and parcel of any negotiated settlement in the South. What you are ignoring is the fact that once the sides sit down everything will be on the table including TFG’s tenure, 4.5 formula, Ethiopia's boots on Somali soil, Shari’a as a political platform for the post-conflict Somali Republic, looted properties, and you named it. These are core issues of Somali politicking.

 

I don’t know! I keep on making the assumption that these leaders are capable of seeing the light.

 

Alle-U-Baahane,

One word for you: ayaan darro. Here is my advice: plz oh plz don’t you speak in the name of UIC. Leave that task to the able and knowledgeable Xiin and Nur. Your ignorance hurts the movement image big time for impressionable minds will think your line of reasoning is same as that of UIC.

 

Ngonge,

Again you hit the nail on the head. Indeed the ceasefire is not only a must but it is also the only outcome.

[miles-militis]

Baashi – good to see you too mate. Love the kiddies with their “waawareey” outbursts as if Shiidaad reincarnated regaling us with his late night misadventures from the hereafter.

 

Stalemate I predict, not a gridlock. Not quit there yet -- allow me to elaborate with the injection of a few chess moves. You see, the two colonels are hardened enough to know the possibilities of war. Yey is counting on Aways fortifying his defenses in and around Mogadishu having his frontline offences being squashed with heavy casualties forgoing all else to the now offensive forces of Yey and Co. This is due to Aways’s miscalculation of Yey’s defensive strategy up until yesterday as a sign of weakness, therefore going on the offence amassing his bishops at the front as if they were infantry rangers. With Aways’s forces tired, hungry and defenseless with morale leveling at its lowest, Yey goes on the offense breaking down that final remaining wall in a final push as Aways’s men crumble like a house of cards, and even Achilles with blood dripping down at the tip of his sword could not save the day let alone Sparta’s deluxe fortresses. In other words, I am certain you are familiar with Ali’s infamous robber-doper tactic that saw Foreman punch himself out only to be whipped in the eight round barely holding up his paws.

 

Further, on the 17th, Aways had his pawns squirting off sirens from all pistons with fellowship adulating his declarations so widespread that even Christian Adis Ababa almost commissioned a learning seat along with a fan club for Aways denomination savouring his teachings. Unfortunately, again Aways misread the signs and went for the jagular leaving his king standing in desolute corner with the queen bleeding on its knees as Yey captures his pawns in the earlier rounds set to requisition Aways’s castles with the predicted fall of Jawhar, Marka and Kismayo any time now [if we are to go by news bulletin from the home front]. And now that Aways misspent his fortunes in his frivolous attempts of becoming larger than life, let us see if Yey is any the wiser extending Aways debentures to continue to the negotiating table. Corner him not, I say. Tender overtures serve wonders crunching a man’s yearnings.

 

Thus far, Aways has gambled away his fortunes and is left with a castle or two guarding his wounded queen and stranded king. With Aways holed up in Mogadishu on the defense, and Yey being on the offense, will Yey be the wiser general and halt, or shall he continue the bombardment till dawn with the full intent of decapitating the queen? Or will he be the gentle soul serving strawberries to his nemesis like Salahadin Al Ayub and offer Jurusalam and its now trounced faith lords terms of engagement that satisfy their hold sparing the king any further humiliation? For Aways being the faith lord he is, he is more likely than not to die fighting with the sword in his mouth even if the crescent had been severed from the king’s head.

 

See the stalemate now mate?

 

As for the past history of the two colonels, why do not I deal that hand afterwards as things get more interesting, eh?

 

Rahima – my deepest condolences to you and your family for the loss of your relatives who perished in this god-forsaken conflict. Not only your loss; it is our loss!

 

Xiinow - it sounds much like your heart is doing the sparring, and not your mind. Get it?

 

Shall leave there,

Tata…