A Day of Infamy

[SOO MAAL]

Baashi is right, being neutral is the best option, if one interested to be fair and just

 

Anuu waxaan qabaa in dadka iyo dalka Somalia loo hiilayo, oo xabashi la iska ilaaliyo

 

Maxkamaduhu dagaal khalad ah bey bilaabeen

[Baashi]

Originally posted by Castro:

Edited: But Baashi, it's ceasefire or a route so it's not really a novel idea you're proposing here. Take it a little further. With whom shall this ceasefire be negotiated and under which terms?

Here is how formidable forumers engage in debates. This is an excellent question. Take notes peeps for ur man Castro knows how to cut to the chase.

 

Now, amigi Fidel here is how I see it.

 

There are two parties in this conflict. UIC on one side and TFG with its Ethiopian backers on the other side. The theatre of contest is in the South. That means the two recovery zones up in the North are excluded from the contest as of today.

 

The UIC sits with TFG not with Ethiopia. For Ethiopia is insisting on the line that it is defending an internationaly recognized Transitional Government. At this point my understanding is that Ethiopian demands will be chanelled through TFG.

 

The terms are crystal clear. The ceasefire shall be immediate and complete. All the parties will stay put where they are today. UIC will clarify that its call for "Jihad" has been misunderstood and the real meaning of IndhaCadde's statement was lost in translation. They will clarify that they are not planning to attack TFG controlled area. They will demand a Somali-owned reconciliation talks held in Arab nation. They will recognize TFG as the outcome of collective clan-shared process as it's the only thing we have to manage the country through the difficult period of reconciliation process. By recognizing it will undertake the necessary security needs of TFG so it can come to Benadir.

 

On the other hand, TFG will promise the withdrawal of "front-line states" forces in Somali soil out persuant to UN, AU, US, and Arab League understanding of the UN resolution (I don't remember the numbers). It will recognize the legitimacy of UIC reign over the lands it controls. It will agree to a new power-sharing formula that reflects the realities on the ground. It will promise to refrain the provocative name-calling that undermines the legitimacy of UIC as a grass root organization such as "Al_Qaeda" and what not. This sort of exchanges will be understood as being having an adverse impact on delicate peace.

 

This will at least generate a much needed support for UIC diplomatically. Having clarified its position vs. "Jihad" on neighboring country, the Arab-League, Djbouti, Eritrea will have the opening they need to condemn Ethiopia's aggression and also provide a much needed regional representation to isolated UIC.

 

It is not perfect. UIC won't get everything it wants nor the TFG will be happy stopping the momentum of gaining more territory at the expense of UIC. However, Somalis will be saved from unwinnable and disasterous war and both camps will be compelled to sit down and hammer out a working and practical plan that can get us out of this sorry state of affairs.

 

This is a start of a negotiated settlement of core issues of Somali political problems. How the final outcome will look like is anybody's guess but this is a table we must sit down together sooner or later. The sooner the better.

 

This is a hasty post. I'll come back and clarify if needed. I'll take a break and I'll be back later.

 

Ku durduriya.

[Didi Kong]

Originally posted by Castro:

Edited: But Baashi, it's ceasefire or a route so it's not really a novel idea you're proposing here. Take it a little further. With whom shall this ceasefire be negotiated and under which terms?

I believe at this point in time it is the Ethiopians who can initiate and further any negotiations for ceasefire. This will only happen if they suffer considerable collateral damage in this conflict. Until then ceasefire is not feasible and not benificial according to Ethiopian agenda and won't happen.

 

ps; Paragon, your ideas of defensive realism are a must for any nation with close external enemies. But sometimes offensive realism should be a necessary subset of defensive realism. Especially Now in our conflict here.

[Baashi]

You are wrong there. With ceasefire declared, Ethiopia can not resist the diplomatic pressure. Even if it is not feasible the least thing that come out of this is the Egypt, a regional counter weight to Ethiopia, will push another UN resolution.

 

As of today, because of the UIC's public call for foreign "Jihadists" to help and Jihad against Ethiopia, no nation is forthcoming in condeming the Ethiopian aggression.

 

Why not play ball. Keep fighting the good fight but play ball damn it.

[me]

^^Who will declare the ceasefire? The TFG? be reaslic man.

 

Originally posted by Baashi:

 

Why not play ball. Keep fighting the good fight but play ball damn it.

Yes play ball,i agree wth you on that, but what happened to your neutrality? Have we discovered our heart?

[Baashi]

^

 

What the hell are you talking about yaa ME? Discovered what? Neutrality? Let's keep our eyes on the ball! Shall we?

 

Who should call the ceasefire? No need to call a new one. Just accept the one initiated by EU with Arab League. It is on the table as we speak.

[me]

hmmmm....

[miles-militis]

Waar Baashow maad dhallaanka boholaha xargaga afkood ka yucaysid?

 

Despite the emotions from the young minds and your light-hearted jacbur much of which I find rather amusing, if perhaps ill-timed with corpses rotting on the battlefields and blood being spilt, I must disagree with some of the core assertions upon the rise and perhaps the fateful fall of both or one of the two colonels at the centre of today’s conflict, in particular Aways’s noninvolvement in the civil war and Yusuf’s switching to the enemy corner --wish to delve into both men’s past should you choose to do so in disproving the said assertions for congenial offing if noting more.

 

Indeed, today is a day of infamy for the faith lords of Mogadishu. Quickly, they have re-risen. Hurried, they have been. Politically naïve, they have proved. Lose all, they might. Whatever political capital accumulated over the past few months had been squandered in a matter of weeks…and if reports from Mogadishu are anything to go by, then faith lords have more supports in the Diaspora than in Mogadishu, hence youngsters here circulating the jar for spare pennies and loaf of bread. Happy, I am not about the outcome for alternative ending I have been hoping for. It is however not a dark day for Somalia or Islam as the faith lords perhaps would want us to believe as last minute parallel relationship ‘ween variants of alien breeding and matters of pusillanimous beings is being drawn. Believed any of that, I never. One harvests what one sows. War, the faith lords had called for, war they have been given, rightly or not. Hype does wonders for one’s ego; more damage does it though to one’s self-worth.

 

Thusly, ceasefire is highly unlikely at this juncture ‘till the lady luck sings the concession tune of one side with the other extending gentlemanly handshake to the trodden party bound to accept unrestricted meager offerings.

 

And what is left unfortunately for us in the distant is read the cries of the young and bellows of the old.

 

... and by the way, there is a slight problem with your latter analysis of what a ceasefire ‘ween the warring parties would resemble -- what you propose my dear chap are terms for and by right-thinking minds, and neither unfortunately could be classified as such.

 

On one hand, the faith lords fancy themselves as the rightful rulers and representatives of the country albeit actuality trumps a different tune despite their initial popular support in Badir and its environs. On the other, you have the TFG contesting the said claims doling itself up as the legitimate government of the country despite its influence reaching further afar than the inland terrain. How does one reconcile? Easy, you say. Hammer out win-win formulae satisfying both parties. Easier said than done, I say. For neither party is acquainted with the concept of win-win, rather win-lose is being sought with the winner taking the spills of war.

 

Stalemate...

 

Tata…

[Liibaan]

Baashi is right 100%

 

TFG and ICU should go back to Khartoum, and resume peace talks

 

Ceasefire is a must; both groups should stop the war and aggression

 

Peace and ceasefire is feasible and possible, I say war and fighting is an unacceptable and intolerable

 

Somali people are tire of war

 

Maybe Colonel Yusuf and Colonel Aweys love to fight and have a war, be cause they know they will not suffer, however Somali people are tire of war because they are the victims

 

 

---

Arab League calls for end to conflict in Somalia

The Arab League has called for an immediate end to the conflict in Somalia after Ethiopian aircraft bombed two airports there, including the international airport in Mogadishu.

 

The city is controlled by the Union of Islamic Courts, whose fighters have been involved in fierce clashes with Ethiopian forces supporting Somalia's transitional government.

 

The Arab League's official responsible for Somalia, Samir Hosni, urged both sides to resume peace talks.

 

"Firstly it calls on the Somali parties and the Ethiopian troops to immediately cease hostilities, including aerial bombardments to spare the Somali people the scourge of war," he said.

 

"Secondly it calls on the transitional government and the Union of Islamic courts to resume the peace talks in Khartoum immediately and unconditionally."

[Captain Xalane]

Cease fire becomes an option when and only when the situation is primary.The situation is now a secondary one,therefore cease fire is out of the equation.

[Liibaan]

Some people in here don't want peace or ceasfire, because they enjoying live in North america or Europe and don't care about somali people who are victims of this senseless war

[Captain Xalane]

Garaad,pple want peace but the so called authorities don't want to.As i said,it ain't btw the tfg and the clan courts now,its about two nations being in war.Got it?

[Castro]

Originally posted by Baashi:

On the other hand, TFG will promise the withdrawal of "front-line states" forces in Somali soil out persuant to UN, AU, US, and Arab League understanding of the UN resolution (I don't remember the numbers). It will recognize the legitimacy of UIC reign over the lands it controls. It will agree to a new power-sharing formula that reflects the realities on the ground.

Power sharing? This is the stuff fairy tales are made of. Unfortunately, awoowe, before any gathering at a table occurs, the Ethiopians will rush to grab as much land as possible. If and when they reach the negotiating table, the TFG can claim they control x, y and z areas and thus have no incentive to concede much. Remember the days before Israel and Hizbollah agreed to a ceasefire? The Israelis made a significant push to grab as much land as possible. Somalia may be a little different as the defenses, financing, and the equipment of Hizbollah are missing.

 

The ideal time to negotiate is when there's a stalemate. There will be no stalemate here in the short term. The Ethiopians will reach Kismaayo and be there for a few months before supply line problems, troop fatigue, an insurgency and other logistical cracks begin to appear in their armor.

 

What is really at stake here?

[Peacenow]

My views on the ICU is well known. Since they are carrying the torch of Somali nationalism, I would rather they not be defeated but that they don't win either. The best formula is for a face saving way to happen that will help both parties and bring them to the table.

 

The ICU have to be hurt just enough for them to drop their arrogrance and taliban strategy and the TFG to tell the Ethiopians to leave, Somalia as soon as possible.

 

All cards are in play at the moment.

[NGONGE]

Originally posted by Castro:

quote:Originally posted by Baashi:

On the other hand, TFG will promise the withdrawal of "front-line states" forces in Somali soil out persuant to UN, AU, US, and Arab League understanding of the UN resolution (I don't remember the numbers). It will recognize the legitimacy of UIC reign over the lands it controls. It will agree to a new power-sharing formula that reflects the realities on the ground.

Power sharing? This is the stuff fairy tales are made of. Unfortunately, awoowe, before any gathering at a table occurs, the Ethiopians will rush to grab as much land as possible. If and when they reach the negotiating table, the TFG can claim they control x, y and z areas and thus have no incentive to concede much. Remember the days before Israel and Hizbollah agreed to a ceasefire? The Israelis made a significant push to grab as much land as possible. Somalia may be a little different as the defenses, financing, and the equipment of Hizbollah are missing.

 

The ideal time to negotiate is when there's a stalemate. There will be no stalemate here in the short term. The Ethiopians will reach Kismaayo and be there for a few months before supply line problems, troop fatigue, an insurgency and other logistical cracks begin to appear in their armor.

 

What is really at stake here?

Hasn’t Somali politics been nothing but the prettiest, saddest and most unbelievable fairy tale, saaxib?

It was only few months ago when the president and the speaker didn’t see eye to eye and threats were spat out on a daily bases. It was only a few short months ago when the warlords and the president were the best of enemies. Look at them now! It’s all snakes and ladders. Never give up on the Somali politicians ability to shock and confound all observers, saaxib.

 

I agree with SW that it’s a stalemate but I also agree with Baashe that the only way out is a ceasefire. In fact, I’ll go further than that and say that a ceasefire is the only outcome. None of the three sides in this conflict can keep it going indefinitely. And, none can win outright. Of course, every side would try to paint a small one as being a total victory but I know and you know that this is nigh on impossible. Which leaves us with the only and obvious outcome, a ceasefire. It will come saaxib lets just hope it happens soon.