Xuuraan iyo Xanta Suuqa: kala soco Kismaayonews.com. Is Kismayo Next?

[Che -Guevara]

Originally posted by Isseh:

We would say so, wouldn't we?

History on our side, thousands already displaced, and for what?

 

 

Barre Hiiraale is set on building Jubbaland.]web page

Are you serious :confused:

[xiinfaniin]

Isseh,

despite's Horn suggestions the gangs who hold Kismayo are part of the tfg, and will not go against it. An agreement between the two camps (JVA and Al Shabaab) to oppose tfg and Ethiopia seems to be politically unfeasible at this time.

 

But my point goes beyond these convenient alliances adeer. Somalis are divided in many ways and need a paradigm shift to get out of this mess they are in. what they two Shariifs are doing in Jabbuuti should be the way forward. .

[General Duke]

Horn, so whats the latest adeer? Barre has failed in taking away roadblocks let alone build an admin. So is it true because you know these clan articles are biased. Whats the latest from the Hiiraale front?

[Gabbal]

Duke, it is not a secret that for a long time now the main argument in Kismaayo has been whether to physically join the fight or stay this position.

 

A man named Abdirizaak Farax Taano headed the group who advocate for more involvement against the Ethiopians while Barre has presided over the group who want to stay in the status quo. Barre, of course, weighed above mostly because of his brand name but the other group is very loyal to their cause.

 

This explains the different news reports given out with one spokesman (Hassan Dheere of Afgaduud wars) saying they are going ahead with talks while Barre seems to be, at least from your article, going ahead with a fight using his personal militias.

 

The fight really isn't between Al Shabaab and Kismaayo, the fight seems to be a battle of ideology within Kismaayo.

 

I, of course, am with the other side though I do hope Barre sees the light soon enough.

[Paragon]

Horn, your points are well noted.

 

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

Isseh,

despite's Horn suggestions the gangs who hold Kismayo are part of the tfg, and will not go against it. An agreement between the two camps (JVA and Al Shabaab) to oppose tfg and Ethiopia

seems to be politically unfeasible at this time.

 

Xiin,

 

It's political feasibility v. political expediency, adeer. Besides, just as Horn has touched on, perhaps the main aim of Al-Shabaab was to test Hiiraale and his men, to either join their liberation efforts or be known to be against them. And the odds are that Hiiraale's folks are now more likely to reach an agreement with Al-Shabaab rather than Ethiopia and the tfg. As such, folks in Kismaayo will have to contemplate whether they are willing to face the out-come of joining the liberation.

 

Adeer raggii Al-Itixaad ka tirsanaa oo uu ciil cunaha uga go'an yahay ayaa ka mid ah reer Gedo, marka it wont be unimaginable if Al-Shabaab gains support from Kismaayo as a result of an agreement.

[General Duke]

Horn, you made these same arguents when the courts were moving towards Kismayu back in 2006. You told us how Hiiraale was against Ethiopia and so on.

 

Now it seems like we are witnessing history again, Xasan Dheere an MP will make a deal with a "religious" movement who have just lost their great leader?

 

I dont know what is going on but from reading the editorials and posts from your clan side, things are not as rosssy as they were.

 

We hope both militia if they fight do it outside the city and urban areas to spare te folks.

But we shall see adeer.

[xiinfaniin]

Aragaanee...

[Gabbal]

Duke, let tell me you a secret adeer. The reason why reer Gedo sweat a cold sweat and become nervous even before the action starts when this issue (Al Itihad, Islamic Courts) is involved is because usually the lines start being drawn within the clan. No other issue has the ability to fracture the unity of this group as this one does. Gedo is a witness. It was because of the fracture that occurred almost a decade ago on this single issue that they are still trying to heal internally.

[General Duke]

^^^Good point, so Hiiraale Vs Taano was about this?

[Xoogsade]

I always believed Horn's kinsmen can help the movement in a way no other clan in the south can. They are well positioned. Kudos to them if they Unite and decide to join the ranks of the freedom fighters. Great number of them always out of their own volition participated in advancing the islamic cause, haddana haddii intooda kalee TFGda kadaba wareegi jirtay iyo xabashida soo xarooto, it is a big victory for somalis who want to see Ethiopia leave Somalia.

 

With regards to Xiin's comment of the two shariif's efforts being the better way, I think TFG and Ethiopia would have no incentive in rewarding toothless negotiators with anything substantial, so the developments on the ground in actuality strengthen the drive for peace and the TFG might negotiate on good faith once they realize they have lost it. This helps Sheekh shariif or anyone else who wants to bring conflicts with Ethiopia to an end. It gives them a better leverage.

[Gabbal]

Just got an update and the reality is very different than was painted. It seem as if talks are going on as a form of courtesy but the weight of the groups are not anywhere near being able to take Kismaayo or even stand against those militias in Kismaayo, if the Kismaayo boys showed hostility.

 

It also seems as if the group in Kamsuuma and the earlier group in Jilib are two different groups who share the same objective. It was not planned but really a chance occurrence.

 

Some of the ICU pocket in Jubbas have gotten tired of the negative effect the checkpoints in Xaramka have on passing civilians and decided to do something momentarily. Another small pocket took advantage of the cover of the Jilib operation to diffuse tension between two groups in Jamaame.

 

Shiekh Ibraahim Shukri "Abu Zaynab" (an Afmadow fella btw Paragon) came to Kismaayo to convince the Kismaayo group, the operations are no threat to that city and to convince the Kismaayo group not to carry out any pre-emptive strikes because of misunderstanding. The state of Kismaayo was never part of the discussions. Almost all of the traditional and political leaders have been convinced and this where the puzzling "cooling down" period begun.

 

The situation is much different than was spread by Somali ku tiri ku teen.

[xiinfaniin]

Xoogga, you made a good point in your last paragraph.

 

But what about if these developments give Ethiopia and its supporters, America included, a reason to attack the city of Kismayo and that results in civilian suffering? We all know al shabaabs have no logistical capacity to hold onto a large city as Kismayo is. As soon as Ethiopian troops get involved they will strategically withdraw as they have done before in other cities. But the end result could as well be a more noticeable Ethiopian presence in that part of Somalia. They would be better positioned if they quietly solicit the support they need from the parties that matter without raising the stakes, as they seem to be doing there now. Don’t get me wrong; I am not advocating for Horn’s militia to continue to hold that city. As soon as the factors that enabled them die out, the affairs of the city will be in the right hands again and gone will be the politics of ********ism. But we should focus on the bigger Somali conflict I believe.

 

Isseh,

 

I would allow you entertain those possibilities. But if my readings are right, a public agreement between the two parties is politically unfeasible as ever

[Xoogsade]

Xiin, waa runtaa saxib, that is always a real concern, we don't want to present Ethiopia with the excuses to occupy a town. But I also think that if Ethiopians know they have no allies in a town, they are never quick to come occupy it. Kismayo is a bit too far for Ethiopia's reach lately considering how bogged down their troops are in almost every where else in the south. Jidgooyo badanna waa lagu sameeyaa, their troop movements are limited and when they want to go to a town, they prefer covering the distance on foot rather than risk being burned in army trucks. Even with that mode of travel, they get attacked. The US is always the force that tips the balance, but the key to the Ethiopian success regardless of US's logistical and areal support largely depended, depends and will depend on Somali groups weakening the ranks of their fellow citizens. If Horn's last report is the latest on the ground, I guess I have no reason to be Euphoric. Waa dadaan meelna raacsanayn oo dantooda/dakhligooda ilaashada barre and his boys.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by Xoogsade:

If Horn's last report is the latest on the ground, I guess I have no reason to be Euphoric. Waa dadaan meelna raacsanayn oo dantooda/dakhligooda ilaashada barre and his boys.

Xoog, adeer Xamar baa gantaal Xabashi gubay ee Kismaayo miyaad sidaa la jeclaan lahayd? Maxay faa'iido u tahay aanan ka ahayn barakac iyo xasuuq shacbi ku jiraane kuwii kasoo cararay Xamar?

[Gabbal]

And the reports come in backing the update I gave..

 

Isbahaysiga dib u xureynta Somalia oo sheegay in aysan jirin wax qorshe ah oo ay ku Weerarayaan Magaalada Kismaayo.

 

Muqdisho. 20. May .2008. (Sh.M.Network)- Isbeheeysiga Dib u Xureeynta Dalka Somalia ayaa sheegay in aysan Qorshaha Ugu jirin Weerar ay ku qaadaan Magaalada Kismaayo Ee Xarunta Gobolka J/hoose..

Shabelle

 

Maxaakiimta Islaamka oo sheegay ineysan u qorsheysneyn xiligan weerar ay ku qaadaan magaalada Kismaayo, kana warbixiyey...

 

Mas’uul ka tirsan saraakiisha ciidamada maxaakiimta Islaamka ee jooga degmada Jilib oo lagu magacaabo Sheekh Axmed C/raxmaan Yaxye ayaa sheegay in ujeedada ay halkaasi u tageen

ay la xiriirto sidii ay dadka deegaankaas ku dhaqan gacan uga siin lahaayeen sugida amaanka,

isagoo xusay in degmada Jilib ay ka mid tahay goobaha ugu amaanka xun dalka Somalia oo maalin iyo habeen walba ay kooxo maleeshiyo ah ku dhibaateyn jireen dadka musaafurka ah ee isaga goosha gobolada dalka, kuwaasoo uu sheegay in u geysan jireen falal iskugu jira dhac dil iyo kufsi

, wuxuuna xusay oo kale in degmada Jilib aysan aheyn meel uu ka jiro maamul wax ka qabta dhibaatooyinkaas oo maleeshoyinkaasna ay ahaayeen kuwa sida rasmiga ah uga taliya degmada...

 

...

ayuu yiri Sheekha oo meesha ka saaray weerar ay xiliggan la damacsan yihiin magaalada Kismaayo, wuxuuna sheegay in aysan taa u qorsheysneyn.

Dayniile