Somalia PM wants dialogue; 6,000 dead this year

[NGONGE]

Heh. Oodweyne, as always, beautifully done, saaxib!

 

This is not an issue of being neutral or even a fence sitter. This is about what makes or does not make sense. The argument being forwarded here (by you and others) does NOT make sense.

 

 

I am not sure if your blinking myopia is borne out of passion (unexpected to say the least; you're a Somalilander after all. These are, according to you, Southern people!) or if there is some political benefit/interest in being so biased! It sure is not your undying love for the ICU that compels you to support them in this fiery way.

 

I shall come back to the outrageous comparison with Somaliland and Cassandra's laughable remark later. But first let me deal with the so called other side of the coin!

 

The TFG might indeed not wish to negotiate as long as they can utilise the weight of the Ethiopian army. At the moment they are in a position of strength. But that position is not as solid as it seems nor is it one that can be argued to be fully sustainable (as I am sure you realise). Only when the TFG completely crushes local resistance could they claim not to have a need for negotiation with exiled opponents. As things stand, this is clearly not the case.

 

So what obliges the TFG to negotiate, I hear you ask. Well, for a start, the fact that the resistance is still at full blast and has not been totally defeated, after almost a year of fighting! In addition, the TFG (as would any other government) realises that in order for the world to regard it as legitimate and extend it a proper helping hand, it will have to pacify the resistance and appear to be in full control of the country. Thirdly, time is of the essence when it comes to the TFG (unlike in the case of the resistance). There is the 2009 deadline to begin with. There is also the fact that international politics ebbs and flaws in accordance with American foreign strategies. Bush shall soon go and his replacement (Republican or Democrat) is very unlikely to follow the same mad policies; Ethiopia may find itself suddenly abandoned!

 

 

That's one scenario and one risk the TFG stands to encounter if it allowed things to remain as they are. Any rational person would agree that it is in their interests to negotiate wit the Asmara group (if for none of the reasons above then for the simple reason of appeasing international donors).

 

It is in the TFG's interests to negotiate. You believe that they have noting to negotiate about but, as a student of politics, you surely realise that negotiations are not always about agreement or compromise. Sometimes, it is about APPEARANCE. Have you not been observing the way Israel has been negotiating with the Palestinians all these years whilst still building its illegal settlements in the occupied territories?

 

As for the comparison with Somaliland, with all due respect of course, I think you’re just being silly there. In fact, some rabid Somalilanders will feel offended that you're comparing nobodies such Indhacade and Aideed to their exalted mujahids . It was a different fight with different variables, players, influences and even terrain.

 

Now lets go all Greek and value that tiny nugget you dropped us in your last raid on this discussion. Of course, just like with the comparison with Somaliland your unexplainable passion also served to confuse you as to the real position of Cassandra in the Iliad. She was indeed a naysayer and begged the people of Troy not to receive the wooden horse but nobody believed her! Shall I tell you what happened when people ignored the advice of Cassandra?

 

Ps

This is not about taking sides, saaxib. Neither you nor I have much of a stake in what is taking place in that part of Somalia. Emotion and passion should not cloud our judgment. When we see a nonsensical argument such as the one about 'negotiating only when the Ethiopians leave', we must call it as we see it. Again, it is not about taking sides, it is about the strength of arguments presented.

 

Pps

 

You'll be pleased to hear that after seeing the difficulty of the situation in the Somali capital, I have decided to take my Somaliland flag from under my bed and keep it under my pillow instead.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Originally posted by Nephthys:

quote:

The only way the Asmara group will have dialogue,is when Ethiopia is out of Somalia. If the TFG is able to address this issue,i am pretty sure Sh.Shareef will negotiate with them. But will they will they? Will this PM address this issue? Doubt it!!

We all know getting Ethiopia out of Somalia is not a workable option for the TFG. Obviously a compromise of some sort has to occure at this point. It's about time the Asmara group gave peace a chance. If not for themselves, then for the rest of the Muqdishu civilians and forget about revenge, which is the road to more ruins. Already 6000 dead, how many more of their own people are they willing to sacrifice? It's crazy!

I beg to differ for an ominous and unpromising fact –- the fact that you are completely forgetting that this dowlad ku sheeg will keep the Xabashi occupying forces for the foreseeable and near future in Soomaaliya. Those stooges absolutely have no problem, no trouble with this as long as they remain as subordinates in a little power.

 

Having written that fact, there are other factors that negotiating and pleasing Xabashi lackeys is futile.

 

Fact I: They are toothlessly powerless, an irrelevant entity that wouldn’t last a week should the occupying Xabashi abandon tomorrow. They also have no power, whatsoever, to say NO to any Xabashi demands, now or any time, let alone promising Xabashi occupying army’s withdrawal in a time frame. It would make a lot more sense to directly negotiate the real problem -- and enemy -- who can call the real shots –- the occupying Xabashi army.

 

Fact II: Xabashi army is not superpower nor that mighty invisible army. We should not lose this focus as a fact; they are poorly-armed and one of the lowest organized army in the developing world [third world], barely a step away from being an unorganized ragtag militia. Their weapons and arms is not that sophisticated, not that modernized; an outdated arsenals supplied by the no longer existing Soviet state, most decades old and dilapidating.

 

Fact III: The Xabashis do not have the means to sustain a prolonged occupation, even if they desperately needed and wanted to. A poor nation cannot keep fighting in a perpetual guerilla war, and Washington, always known being an impatient new empire, will soon get tired of funding this soon to be protracted, abiding war. Time is indeed on the side of our gallant and heroic resistance groups.

 

Fact IV: The so-called Xabashi's "Itoobiya" is not a nation on the true definition of the word. It is a Band-Aided nation, la isku kab kabay, desperately clinging to its last legs; it is a "nation" always protected by a current superpower of the world, be it old Burtuqiis, the collapsed Soofiyeed's Ruush or Mareykan. A nominal "nation," which at its basic root barely functions and sustained constinuously by foreign aid, which without it this so-called nation would disintegrate in no time. A poorly banded "nation" ruled by a very minority elite Tigreys, with vast majority of the citizens it claims to represent subjugated. Those repressed people's long struggle for liberty are rightfully resisting, including Oromos, who form the true majority.

 

Fact V: If Xabashi occupiers are not resisted today, reclining and giving up our Eebbe-given rights, expect the xasuuq that is currently happening -- and for a long time happened -- in Soomaali Galbeed. If they see there won't be any resistance any longer, they may then reduce their army to save funds; they may not, however, completely abandon Soomaaliya. Ciidan kumanaan bilaash uguma dhiman if you think they will leave peacefully and don't have a sinister political agenda. They will plant -- and they already did this -- moles in every facet of Soomaaliya, making the already distrusting Soomaalis higly suspicious of one another. They are already trying this trick by building an "embassy" right next to the supposed official residence of a real madaxweyne, Filla Soomaaliya. This is a deliberate, calculated political strategy. There is no nation that I know of, under occupation or not, that allowed another foreign country to build an embassy right next, wall-to-wall of the official residence of a nation's head of state. Adduunka waligeed taas kama dhicin.

 

If they are successful in this political game, expect dispirited Soomaalis being high, consider Soomaalinimo morale being low; daljecelnimo down, dejection up. And ultimately Soomaaliya as a free, sovereign nation to the dustbin of history. Soomaaliya will be a proxy, half-Xabashi and the other, limited half governed hyena-like by the Xabashi sycophants, uselessly competing to please their Xabashi master in their little fiefdoms.

 

Fact VI: If we cannot resist Xabashi occupation army now, whom has four open war fronts, from Eritareeya to Soomaali Galbeed. This ragtag, shabby army cannot again possibly sustain to keep these four open fronts in a continual warfare.This is the best opportunity to continue the struggle. This struggle will also teach the stooges that we would never accept any foreign subjugation. We will also teach and show a firm warning to the future generations how to deal the puppets when the Xabashis are kicked. They will not survive. Them and their thoughts will be eradicated, forever gone with them. We will never allow another generation u shaqeyso Xabashi.

 

In conclusion: Xabashi shan boqol sano dagaal iyo colaad naga dhaxeysay, they only know in ay shantaada kaa celineyso. This colaad will continue as long as they keep their agression and expansion into Soomaali lands; as long as they keep occupying Soomaali lands.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Good sentiment there yaa MMA. But Bishaaro’s point does not really contradict what you wrote there. She did not question the principle of fighting Ethiopia. She did however question the strategy with which to achieve your objectives of ejecting Ethiopia’s occupying army out of Xamar. What we see today on the ground and the detached pronouncements coming out of Asmara do not fit together adeer. There are millions displaced, thousands killed, and thousands more maimed in the south. I, or Bishaaro for that matter, would be less concerned if Somalis equally share the cost of fighting Ethiopia and America and other Somalis to remove this misguided leadership and reclaim our republic. But the brunt of this burden yaa MMA is being taken today by one segment of Somali community in and around Xamar. The Baydhabo next door is peaceful. Hiiraan is largely peaceful. Puntland and Somaliland are largely peaceful. Kismayo is peaceful. I mean there is no sense of lets fight Ethiopia in the ereas I mentioned. They may be at each other’s throat but certainly not in a war footing with Ethiopia. Confronting those glaring facts, how could you object to any peace gesture is really beyond me? Is it out of pride, conviction, or you see it convenient to support or prolong this conflict till the resistance achieves tangible victories to boost their standing and it’s then that you would accept or heed calls for peace?

 

I find the parallel drawn between the fight in ****** and the one in Somalia quite erroneous! The strategy there is to frustrate Ethiopia till she exhausts resource and stamina for her desire to hold onto that Somali land. The means is guerrilla warfare. Both the strategy and its means are working in my estimation. But in Somalia, we are utterly divided to even come up an agreed strategy to drive Ethiopia out of Somalia. Fighting Ethiopia in Xamar proved to be a very clausal mistake, both in terms of our national pride, and in terms of lives lost and properties destroyed with no tangible returns to show for it. In fact new refugee camps are being established in Ethiopia to commence speedy resettlement programs for our displaced. When you blindly support the continuation of a fight that you are undisputedly losing and oppose any hint of peace talks, you do defy reason adeer. Perhaps you are unwittingly falling into enemy’s plans to destroy what’s left Somalia and displace as many of her people in the name of security and stability.

 

We should think a little deeper before we promptly obey the raw commands of our heart…we should be thinking with our heads, and not with our hearts!

[N.O.R.F]

In other words, just change the name of late Gen. Barre to that of current Col. Yey; and whilst you are at it, see to it, to change the name of the Somali Government of that time, to that of the current Collaborationist Entity that is the said TFG; and Northern Somalia of that time, to that of Banadir Region of the present-time…

 

Hmm, an interesting thought.

 

NG

 

I have decided to take my Somaliland flag from under my bed and keep it under my pillow instead

The fence breathes

[Nephissa]

Originally posted by Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar:

Fact I: They are toothlessly powerless, an irrelevant entity that wouldn’t last a week should the occupying Xabashi abandon tomorrow. They also have no power, whatsoever, to say NO to any Xabashi demands, now or any time, let alone promising Xabashi occupying army’s withdrawal in a time frame. It would make a lot more sense to directly negotiate the real problem -- and enemy -- who can call the real shots –- the occupying Xabashi army.

That's so retro!! Love that cool broken-record effect. Xabashi ha baxo! I do not and never will fault any Somali for doing his or her best to accomplish the mission, but on whose expense??? Muqdisho's?? You're saying it's better that we've lost nearly 10,000 [and counting] civilians, Muqdisho kaliya, have had dozens of thousands displaced and wounded to varying degrees, and probably more suffering emotionally as long as we're fighting the Xabashi..when the rest of Somalia are not all up in arms supporting the idea. That doesn't work for me addeer. It's not the most diplomatic of approaches, and I know I'm far from alone on this. TFG is ready and willing to work something out. They know that they have to co-exist, but the Asmara group is not willing...Amxaar-ka saar, ka dibna aan ku cuno ma soconayso.

 

May be in a distant future, we'll evolve into understanding one another. I'm pretty sure I won't see that in my lifetime. But I think we'll reach that golden age of civilization at some point.

 

In la iska ciyo maaha, caqli baa loo baahan yahay mararka qaarkood.

[Khalaf]

^^Well spoken, madem.

[Xoogsade]

Nephthys

 

 

Sis, Whether Xabashis displace and kill more of the residents, or whether they roll out of Muqdisho and leave people in peace, the deep wounds the TFG inflicted upon the masses hardened their resolve against it. I can not fathom how they will rule. It is too late now. Maxaaba la iska daalin.

 

 

Besides that, whatever the cost of the war against the Xabashis burdened on us, there are signs it is showing some good results. Ethiopia declared its mission a failure, they are now demanding troops from other countries be brought or they will abandon the warlords Wasaarada Arimaha dibadda Itoobiya oo ku dhawaaqday in Soomaliya ciidamadeeda kala baxayaan .

 

Also, in Muqdisho, Maxamed Dheere is blaming his clansmen for joining the resistance and threatening them to inflict the same pain the Xabashi troops inflicted on others. The resistance is spreading. Outside Muqdisho, Ethiopian troops are attacked whenever the opportunity comes along.

 

Somalis whether they are in diaspora or inside the country need to keep up the pressure to see the Ethiopian troops leave the Country. If the TFG can not survive without them, tough luck. We need our country free of Xabashis and that is the bottom line. I don't care about the FATE of the TFG. They charted their FATE.

[Che -Guevara]

Xoogsade...Habashis will withdraw eventually whether voluntarily or through force. I think the bigger question here is would the Somalis find the workable solutions that will ensure fair treatment of our citizens,solution that would also guarantee the unity of the country. As people, we have made a habit of destroying things without even giving any thought to what comes after though in this case we absolutely need to destroy the Habashi machinery in Somalia. But I wonder who's going to fill the power vacuum, and stir this country to better days. My fear is and I hope that I'm proven wrong we will return the same nihilistic fratricide.

[Xoogsade]

^ Well saxib, inshallah, my hope is, where Muqdisho is concerned, people there have learned from the brief rule of the ICU that co-existence and brotherhood is more fruitful than running after warlords. The TFG brought nothing to miss once they depart, only reaction they will get from most somalis will be lacnad upon them for their deeds. Waa lacnad kaa dul tagtay. Nobody will miss these crooks and their Xabashi troops. It can get messy but the TFG is to blame for creating animosity by using foreign army to inflict pain on somali clans. If I knew the TFG was better I wouldn't oppose them saxib, but the same savages who engineered the genocide, starvation, and the displacement can not bring a solution so they have to go ASAP by any means.

 

I pray that after the TFG bloody mulxidiin warlords exit, islam to be in their place and capable muslims to take their place.

 

I can not find sympathy or the slightest excuse for men who murdered so many in cold blood and weren't moved an inch by the carnage at their feet. I can not let my faith be tainted by a single good word I say about these warlords. Their departure would be nothing but a relief for the people who live in the misery and abyss Muqdisho and surrounding area have become.

[Che -Guevara]

^^I agree with you. Their departure would mostly definitely bring relief to Mogadisho and its environs. Where Mogadisho could be possibly re-unified under the banner of Islam, there is the bigger issue of unifying the nation under one entity . Whether that's possible, I'm not sure. One thing is certain, there is serious divisions within the Somali nation as shown by the indifference of other Somali regions towards Mogadisho.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

^^Good sentiment there yaa MMA. But Bishaaro’s point does not really contradict what you wrote there. She did not question the principle of fighting Ethiopia. She did however question the strategy with which to achieve your objectives of ejecting Ethiopia’s occupying army out of Xamar. What we see today on the ground and the detached pronouncements coming out of Asmara do not fit together adeer. There are millions displaced, thousands killed, and thousands more maimed in the south. I, or Bishaaro for that matter, would be less concerned if Somalis equally share the cost of fighting Ethiopia and America and other Somalis to remove this misguided leadership and reclaim our republic. But the brunt of this burden yaa MMA is being taken today by one segment of Somali community in and around Xamar. The Baydhabo next door is peaceful. Hiiraan is largely peaceful. Puntland and Somaliland are largely peaceful. Kismayo is peaceful. I mean there is no sense of lets fight Ethiopia in the ereas I mentioned. They may be at each other’s throat but certainly not in a war footing with Ethiopia. Confronting those glaring facts, how could you object to any peace gesture is really beyond me? Is it out of pride, conviction, or you see it convenient to support or prolong this conflict till the resistance achieves tangible victories to boost their standing and it’s then that you would accept or heed calls for peace?

 

I find the parallel drawn between the fight in ****** and the one in Somalia quite erroneous! The strategy there is to frustrate Ethiopia till she exhausts resource and stamina for her desire to hold onto that Somali land. The means is guerrilla warfare. Both the strategy and its means are working in my estimation. But in Somalia, we are utterly divided to even come up an agreed strategy to drive Ethiopia out of Somalia. Fighting Ethiopia in Xamar proved to be a very clausal mistake, both in terms of our national pride, and in terms of lives lost and properties destroyed with no tangible returns to show for it. In fact new refugee camps are being established in Ethiopia to commence speedy resettlement programs for our displaced. When you blindly support the continuation of a fight that you are undisputedly losing and oppose any hint of peace talks, you do defy reason adeer. Perhaps you are unwittingly falling into enemy’s plans to destroy what’s left Somalia and displace as many of her people in the name of security and stability.

 

We should think a little deeper before we promptly obey the raw commands of our heart…we should be thinking with our heads, and not with our hearts!

What you have in mind is a lofty, ideal goal. An admirable, in fact. If only, though, it was that simple and straightforward.

 

What exactly is there to negotiate? Honestly.

 

Ma qof gurigaaga xoog ku heysto, kuna xaar xaaraayo ayaa halala hadlo leedahay? What will you negotiate and put on the table in this? Give a particular place uu ku xaar xaaro and to leave the rest of your own home?

 

Or you will negotiate the toothless few cheerleading boys inside the house who apparently think the odour smells good?

 

Wadahadal iyo wadatashi qof kasoo horjeedo maleh. Iska hadal iyo madadaalo is, wholly, another matter.

 

From what I can understand, you are suggesting that the resistance groups should sit down with the stooges at a table, without a precondition requirement of Xabashi's withdrawal as a must before any talks begin, and the stooges will [hopefully] agree a scheduled time frame of gradual Xabashi pulling out?

 

Is that what you are suggesting? Wow, what a splendid idea, indeed, if it only were that simple.

 

You honestly think Xabashis, having lost thousands of their men, will quietly go without getting a huge political favour in return, if not a whole junk of the country?

 

Or you want the south to be just another entity controlled from Adisababa, sida ay hadda yihiin Waqooyi iyo Bari?

 

Waxba yaanan la isku madadaalin, la isku jilin ruwaayadda, Xabashi is not -- and NOT again -- going anywhere unless forcefully removed. I mentioned and elucidated my points of why they will be there unless resisted on my last post of this thread.

 

Your assumption of them quietly leaving is dead wrong. Wrong both politically, militarily and speaks a poor political judgement. A miscalculation that is both unprecedented in this world, where an occupying army quietly leaves without getting huge political favour back or a installing a proxy, obedient regime in. The occupying Xabashis, if not resisted today, will -- and it is a sure guarantee -- make bases; they will control and patrol the seas soon [they are already training marine and naval units and have permission from this illegitimate entity of a so-called dowlad]. And you are expecting this not to continue?

 

What exactly is to negotiate and talk about in a circumstance like this again? Meeshiiba Falastiin ka dhigtay, oo every few years shimbiryaaloow heesa loo keeno.

 

About why Muqdisho is resistance's primary target, there are more factors than the eye meets. We don't have to make wrong assumptions, speculations and presumptions. It is just wrong.

 

The factors:

 

One, Muqdisho is the capital of Soomaaliya. It has a political heavyweight on the international legitimacy and makes sense politically.

 

Secondly, Muqdisho is a major city, where guerilla warefare is much suitable than any small-town.

 

Third, Once Xamar is liberated, it is much easier on other towns. Not vice versa.

 

We need not, again, to dwell the pointless and unnecessarily debate of why the resistance groups are focusing in Muqdisho and not other towns. That is not for us to understand. Those who assume the resistance forces comprising from one clan are downright wrong. They are also wrong to assume the suffering Soomaalis, who la barakiciye being one clan. They are wrong in that sense, because their rationing is filtered from a clan perspective. There are many in there who are fighting for Soomaalinimo and Islaanimo. Turki, Rooboow, Shangole, to name a few, and as the junior stooge Max'ed Dheere says, are not "reer Banaadir" [as though he was one]. Yet, they are fighting there for Soomaalinimo.

 

Why they are not focusing on other towns again? Personally, I don't know. Can I understand their political reasoning, for any? You bet I can. It is just what it is -- small towns.

 

Nevertheless, they are lately changing their strategy and taking the warefare resistance to countrywide now. Already Hiiraan, Bakool, Galgaduud ka socoto qabanqaabis.

 

You must also know I don't personally agree kuwa dhalinyaradda la baxay Shabaabka and their political ideology; isku aragti manihin, go'aan iyo mowqif aan isku dhawnahay maleh, laakiinse maxaan heynaa oo meesha yaalo? We are forced to support them, they are the only major group fighting and resisting. We have no option but to support, come rain or drought.

 

I can bear living under an authoritarian Soomaali regime, whose political ideas I don't agree with, than a Xabashi one. Any day, night and time.

[Xudeedi]

My heartfelt sentiment goes with Miskiin-Macruf-Aqyaar and Xoogsade. We aught to continue the resistance and never present our enemy the elusive chance for a temporary respite, doing so lengthens their time of occupation and brutalities of revenge on our civilians. Monuments would be built for the heroes and heroins who died during the painful course of liberation and the struggle for our inalienable rights. We shall never surrunder our inalienable rights.

[Fabregas]

Ethiopia is crying that it wants to leave Somalia and that more peackeepers are needed in Somalia. But at the same they have and are sending more of their troops to fight in Somalia. So any current negotiations at this present moment will be based on the fact that Ethiopia is still currently occupying Somalia. Secondly, any negotiations or ceasefire will be used by the Ethiopians to regroup and change their strategy. The I.C.U already met these folk(t.f.g) at Sudan and they dishonestly came to the table pretending they wanted to negotiate, whilst Ethiopians were preparing for a war at their backyard. Of course it wouldn't look bad for the cameras if the Shariff were to meet this so called new P.M. But that is all it would be, ie a shot for the cameras. Sitting at a table with this man, how ever much desired, is not going to solve any of the aforementioned problems in Somalia. It would be nice though, if they could meet this gentleman and pretend that there were no Ethiopians troops in Somalia. It would be nice again, if they met this man and pretended that this was a conflict between Somali Clans, which could be solved by gathering a few elders and whatnot. But the fact of the matter is the resistance existed and exists because there is a war between Warlords/Ethiopians and Somali groups. These warlords and African Dictators aren't going to sit at a table and make some rosy imagined peace with you. They don't care how many thousands of Somalis are dying in Somalia, so long as they have the power(to conquer, loot and plunder). They live by the gun, they die by the gun! We could also pretend that this Gentleman has the keys to tell al the warlords to stop what they are doing. Or we could pretend that this gentleman will tell the Ethiopians to stop the occupation and take a vacation back to Adiss Ababa. Of course some would argue that it is "nonsensical" to make the call for a withdrawl as the prime focus of any talks. However, if this gentleman believes that Ethiopians have a right to be in Somalia and "hunt down terrorsits", which he most probably does, then what is their to negotiate him with( in a real sense)? Are they going beg him to tell Ethiopians to leave?Thus, we can throw around words like " negotiate, peacetalks and a way out". But negotiate for what, were, when and how? If this gentleman were to land in Asmara:

 

What would be the first negotiatin point? Anyone?

 

Nur Cade: What are your demands my friends?

Asmara group: We want Ethiopians troops out of Somalia!

Nur Cade: Well, emm, I am afraid they are not leaving until peacekeepers come and em em, they are here to help the Somali goverment!

Shariff: Well we can't accept that! We will have to continue the resistance!

Nur Cade: Ok, fine discussion closed!

[The Zack]

This is what I see:

1-AU/Arab Troops will be deployed

2-Ethiopians leave for good

3-Asmara group and TFG meet in third country

4-Sharif becomes the new pm

5-Cabinet will be chosen both from TFG and ICU

6-The year of 2009 comes

7-Fair Elections are held in Somalia

8-We all go home

[-Nomadique-]

Originally posted by -:

My fear is and I hope that I'm proven wrong we will return the same nihilistic fratricide.

Or alternatively, it will purge the nation of the most callous warlords once and for all.

 

Removing these sabotoeurs from the political landscape may be the kick start the nation needs towards national reconciliation and lasting peace.

 

 

Allah knows.