It’s time to part!

[xiinfaniin]

It’s time to part!

 

News reports from Somalia’s central region indicate that Mogadishu’s Islamic Courts have made substantial progress in the Mudug valley. Both Bandiiradley and Harerdheere have fallen into the Court’s hand, and if some news reports are to be believed, historic Hobyo is already in their column. Remarkably enough, leaders of Puntland, who few weeks ago were commenting from the comfort of their seat and hastily describing this movement as a theatrical play, are now forced to admit Court’s real existence in the region. Even Cadde Muse revealed that his administration has been in contact with the Court’s leadership! Notwithstanding reactionary threats from Puntland’s military establishment, most Punlanders now realize that Mogadishu Courts are real and looming large from the south of their region. Some are even beginning to swallow their pride and conceive the possibility of Baraxley falling in the Court’s sphere of influence if not under their direct authority! What to do now? Allow the natural separation of Mudug region and claim only that which’s yours! It’s time to part, I say!

 

Before I make that plain argument let me make one thing clear though: Court’s latest military adventurism is foolish and, quite honestly, lacking strategy. It may excite some laypeople in some circles but it sure shows where their priority lies when it comes the challenges before them! With Mogadishu barely manageable, Indhacadde sitting on his Shabeele loot and still in their ranks, and, above all, facing Ethiopia in their doorsteps, one would not expect from Courts to send rolling army along grazing lanes of Central Mudug! There are larger issues that need addressing in the south and of which their effort is worth. But by making unnecessary headlines in barren and remote villages of Galgaduud, they are timidly neglecting moral responsibility of solving the problems of Shabeelooyinka and Jubbooyinka! That’s disappointing!

 

Now back to my argument. It’s time for Puntlander’s to divorce from this superficial appearance that they control and rule Mudug! They are not! In fact, as far as Mudug is concern Puntland does not even control the city of Galkacyo in its totality! Why then pretend like they have a full authority of it when indeed they partially control it? Why raise an outcry in defense of a passing custom when it’s to their benefit if the status quo changes (i.e. southern Mudug develops a system of governance of its own and peacefully coexists with Puntland)? What Puntland needs today is to face the challenges put forth by the emergence of Mogadishu’s Islamic Courts and realize times are indeed changing! Although the timing of it does not sit well with me, I still appreciate the political values for the Courts to expand their rule and impose law and order where it’s absent. Those regions are entitled to have the benefit system of governance brings, I hold, just as Puntlanders and Somalilanders have been enjoying and harvesting its fruits for the most part of this decade! That political thinking should prevail for it’s critical for Puntland's survival. It’s not a charity to allow your equals to enjoy what you yourself enjoy and whose value you so dearly cling to. What rationale is there to deny and prevent the birth of peace in southern Mudug? True that Puntland’s sole political dominance will be threatened if Islamic courts are erected in Baraxley but that’s hardly an excuse. Politics without morality is wrong and, in the end, ineffective. Even if Puntland adamantly decides to defend southern Mudug either through proxy (Qaybdiid) or direct confrontation with the Court’s men the cost of sustaining such a war would be unbearable not to mention the outcome of it is less certain. Alternatively, Puntland could pioneer a new political territory and enter a mutual contract with Court’s leadership! Creative and adoptive political strategy is needed and a clean break from old man’s boastful, yet ineffective, military approach is a must. And if Puntland is to stay alive it must not be used by Ethiopia.

[Duufaan]

I do not think they only concern Baraxley town , there are other part of the city which puntland leadership neglected. Puntland leadership have been a family bussines since it created for 8 years ago. the fear of losing everything is there. One's court show up in Baraxley, nothing ever will be same in Gaalkacayo.

 

There are more poeple in Gaalkacayo than the whole Galduud/south mudug region. The city is the commercial center of central somalia and Howd region as far as wardheer. That will give Punland the upper hand, for any political survival, internationally, nationally and locally, puntland must confront it is enemy who ever it is. The mistakes done in Adhicadeeye, should not be repeated.

[Gabbal]

Before I make that plain argument let me make one thing clear though: Court’s latest military adventurism is foolish and, quite honestly, lacking strategy. It may be excite some laypeople in some circles but it sure shows where their priority lies when it comes the challenges before them!

The chicken has come home to roost!

 

Now tell me Xiin, how good of character detector just am I?

[Tahliil]

The courts people must be surely smoking some powerful joints. The normal tell-tell signs: hallucinations, psychotic speeches all there. Is this because of the opium talking when they talk like that or perhaps something more sinister is in their “fruit†bunch bowl? Surely these court militias are inhaling a much more potent stuff than anyone else since the long history (16 years and counting) of drug using warlords started running the country. They must have inherited Catto’s drug plantations. And I know that dude, he is good at cross-breeding. The Qat was nothing compared to what Mr. I am Aways-Rush-Indhacado-Limbo’s cousin is addicted to these days. No limits.

 

That light sarcasm aside though, I think they (the new guys) are losing a great deal of momentum and energy and excitement in this crusade. They should first allow the dust to settle in Hamar Cade before they embark on another ambitious campaign to reunite the country from east-west and north-south. What a ridiculous plan. God help us, whenever we or I think that some group here or there is going to make a difference and bring about peace, these sort of crazy journeys and goals seem to be the inevitable replacing caution and Hikmah. Let’s all watch and see how far they can ride on this tide. It’s not the first time, after all.

[Jacpher]

Not yet. Until they free the South from the evil hands.

[General Duke]

Xiin as ever makes an accurate point.

Through these courts are not going to take over anything, all these running around and setting up a new court under some tree is not a viable alternative to governing.

 

Their Achiles heel is the occupation of the south.

 

Xasan Dahir religious claims will be tested when he ignores the plight of the Muslim people of the south..

 

As for Puntland, they do not have the illitary power to do anything to it.

 

The news today contrary to the earlier claims was that they clan courts were asked to leave Benderedlay and left.

 

Galkacyu will remain a no go zone for now...

[S.O.S]

Dear brothers/sisters,

 

The plight of Southern Somalia is an issue that we should all be concerned about, and undoubtedly, as such should the UIC –if not so far. Laakiin Soomaalidu waxay ku maahmaahdaa: Arrin waa mid kugu soo boodday iyo mid kugu bariday

 

Therefore one should not lose sight with the strategic considerations in UIC’s assessment to outweigh the protection and militarily advantageous positioning of its centres (given the Ethiopian military aggression which threatens its very existence) along the very important hard-surface-road linking Galkacyo, Dhuusamareeb, Beledwayne, Jowhar and finally leading to Muqdisho, above less strategically pressing aspects, at least in the short term. This route, (compared to other two hard-surface-roads routes, one from Baydhabo and the other stretching along the coastline of the Jubba valleys as far as Kismaanyo, respectively even so, both leading to Muqdisho; are either defendable or practically harmless) is potentially most dangerous route faced by any Muqdisho based power, past and present, when fighting any Ethiopian based or backed power, past and present. Valuable lessons have been learned from the fall of Siyaad Barre government 16 years ago!

 

If you are men of understanding, then please add the above into the equation and show some patience; the people of the south deserve no less than full justice. Justice will be less likely though, as long as there are some Somalis willing to trade the future of all Somalis for their short-term personal interests by aligning themselves with our collectively millennial archenemy.

 

w/c.

[xiinfaniin]

^^And our archenemy, good SOS, will never be defeated as long some of us feel unjustly occupied---an obvious source of division. It’s not an impossible task for the Court’s to seek unity by serving justice wherever they can. Marka supposedly falls under their direct authority. If time is not ripe for that change to come now (there are many reason for that to be the case) flexing thier military muscle at this time is meaningless, I say. I understand the wisdom of being in a defense posture given TFG’s stance and its subordinate relationship with Ethiopia but as a man of understanding I could not understand what is to gain from Court’s latest quest!

 

To be fair your argument has some meat on it but the truth remains that Islamic Court’s are loosing some momentum to affect lasting changes in Mogadishu and in the immediate regions of the south. Obviously some good has been done and progress has been made. But I fail to see any military value for them to be in those remote areas; it’s a friendly region after all (except some of southern Mudug). And if their efforts were to secure those routes from Ethiopia I dare say it’s a misplaced one. Ethiopia, my good brother, would most likely make its stand in the south. Gedo and Bay would be their entrance point. As you know it have the means and the platform to exact their influence in Somalia. In both Puntland and Somaliland they have more friends than enemies and I suspect both would be willing to serve Ethiopia’s interests for their own survival. Now the question becomes this: do the gains of marching in to Central and Mudug regions outweigh its benefit and create a perception of a Movement that is unwilling or unable to address the political impasses of the south yet happily marching distant lands and, in the Gaalkacyo’s case, recklessly seeking confrontation? In my opinion not only does it outweigh its short-term political gains but it also goes against Court’s declared objectives: bringing stability and peace to Somalia. I hope you notice that my difference with the Mogadishu’s Courts is on tactical level and it’s not one of a principle.

 

As you’ve correctly noted the question of injustices in the south is a great concern to many of us. I have always maintained that as long Courts are busy cleaning Mogadishu and continuing their effort to impose law and order in it, they need be given the benefit of doubt. But it gets harder to defend their latest adventure when Marka next door and its population are pleading help and the Court’s men are waving victory flags five-hundred-miles away! It’s true that most of those Court militias were already there but some have been deployed from Mogadishu and traveled all the way to Bandiiradley! This begs the question. Do they really recognize political challenges before them? If indeed Mogadishu Islamic Courts think that issues of looted towns and farms are no priority for them, then it’s unfortunate for such a movement to miss one of the most fundamental ingredients of southern instability. And that’s where my disappointment lies. Needles to say that, in the end, we support principles and not men per se.

 

As for Puntland’s response I think they need to realize that the Courts have a moral responsibility to serve neglected communities in Central and Mudug regions just as they should for the people in Shabeelooyinka and Jubbooyinka. My fear is for that region to be put in an unnecessary war footing and for Ethiopia to be involved and take advantage of it as it always does! That would be a disastrous outcome in my opinion. I am suggesting that Puntland should talk to the Courts instead of fighting them. For fighting the Courts is avoidable and unnecessary as they do not pose any threat. People need to resist recent and formidable cries of war for there is no such conflict to be had!

 

I have already conceded Court’s latest adventure as being injudicious. I just do not like the whole episode! It’s distracting from the real and pressing issues!

[AYOUB]

Xiin

For a person who said they supported the Courts for "ideological reasons", this "time to part" pledge makes you appear as someone practicing NIMBY politics. There's virtually no difference between your new stance and Duke Smith's about turn - when he felt Yey's Baidoa seat was under threat. Whatever happened to the emotional pledge of allegiance to the Courts? Go on, explain it all away..

[xiinfaniin]

^^Ayoubow, do you first understand what ‘time to part’ means (who’s parting from whom )? And please announce to the public what ‘my new stance’ is! It’s easier for you to comment about what’s not said rather than sharing you two cents about the issues I raised, I suppose!

 

Adeer ma anaa mooday mise sibaad u gaabisay? Or you are just being difficult...fill me in yaa Ayoub!

[AYOUB]

^^Seen! It's all my faults is it?

do you first understand what ‘time to part’ means (who’s parting from whom

)?

Nope! What is this partition? Who is being partitioned from whom? Most importantly: why now?

[Faarax-Brawn]

Alternatively, Puntland could pioneer a new political territory and enter a mutual contract with Court’s leadership! Creative and adoptive political strategy is needed and a clean break from old man’s boastful, yet ineffective, military approach is a must. And if Puntland is to stay alive it must not be used by Ethiopia

Ayooub,The conclusion and spine of (Used-to-be good)XIIN's post is in this quote here. Perhaps you should read it,carefully before you jump into hasty decisions. This way,you dont get to be called a (Damned)Fool

 

Its now clear where you stand Xiin,not a bad idea inaar

[S.O.S]

Brother Xiinfaniin,

I know that you are a man of understanding, and am very glad that we are principally on the same side whatever tactical differences; I talk war and you talk politics!

 

Elaborating more on the significance of Galkacyo-route from military perspective is, if you know the most likely point of entry of your enemy, which, as you correctly noted would be Gedo/Bay region like they have done before and continue to do still, you cannot but be obliged to react. Depending on whatever situation one finds oneself in, in terms of strength in manpower and firepower, one has to confront either by attacking, trapping or distracting. Thus controlling this strategic route serves potentially the following: a) to distract the Ethiopian military planners since this route parallels with the provisional Ethiopian border, it means the courts could easily crossover into Ethiopian "territories" and attack them elsewhere, so the intensity and strategic focus of Ethiopia's military apparatus would severely be compromised by their necessary spread along the very long Ethio-Somali "border" (at least as far Gaalkacyo), b) this will also serve to isolate the TFG by cutting off all access from Puntland, which should protect them domestically from other undermining irregularities and hence strengthen the position of the courts.

 

Therefore the situation as it is today dictates the current short-term oriented "women and children first" approach, but I've heard the courts are very inceptive in the sense that the lack of historic precedence (of a project of this kind) makes endeavours like this more likely. Criticism must wait I say; we all are required to cooperate, pray and play the midwife role to secure justice and stable future.

 

w/c

[Duufaan]

No Criticism, AAMIIN. Before the court rise, where all these pationated poeple have been? The analyses are wrong and feeling are strong. they are more like fans of football team.

 

The court are still very good position to make peace with the other side. They had four good months but the future is bleak. The court still is local, they never make transition from local to national level. SHEIK Shariif tried his part, when he talked about the return of property But Afgooye, just outside moqdisho, still rule a friendly warlod and the court not responding the local people asking for justice, the port is close with internal disagreement and the move to Gaalkacayo complicated the court agenda.

 

As I mentioned many times before, it is very clear the court will stay local. But the question is, will the court maintain controll moqdisho for long time to come. The hope of TNG taking controll the country is dissapearing, it is better for people of moqdisho to have one ruler.

[S.O.S]

Before the court rise, where all these pationated poeple have been?

Disenfranchised by warlordism and dirty clan-politics, were you not yourself or were you eager participant? If we are all football-fans –including you, our great poet Timacade (Allah ha u naxariistee) did all the chanting for us back in 1967 when he said:

 

Dugsi ma leh qabyaaladi, waxay dumiso mooyaane

Hadaynaan xumaantiyo, dilkiyo daynin kala-qaatka

Dibaddaan ka joognaa sharciga, daacadda Ilaahe

Danbarkeedu waa Jahannabiyo, dogobkii naareede