The current state and the way ahead

[Faarax-Brawn]

Now my question to you is, is there a non violent way out?

Yes.When one side finally runs out of people to kill.

 

Today,Again,the less savvy Wadaads fell into another trap.

[Recovering-Romantics]

Excellent points meiji and me[/b. One of the most meaningful discussions on SOL since my arrival. We may not agree always but the arguments you have presented are well-thought-out and rational reasonings. Keep up the fine work.

[Meiji]

error

[Meiji]

Me,

 

The struggle in Somalia is not about whether one applies violent or non-violent means to achieve ones political goals. That’s a tactical question, and should only be looked at after solving the strategic question and more importantly after scrutinizing the ideological goal of a particular political faction.

 

I hope that by now all can agree that the current struggle in Somalia is one about political power and the restoration of the Somali state. Whoever succeeds in gaining political power in Somalia is well-placed to decide the ideological and political framework of the next Somali state,and thus the future of Somalia. To make things more complicated, this struggle is fought out in a context you yourself have described in the following words:

 

We have clan groups vying for power, we have warlords for hire, we have mafiosi/pirates out for a quick buck, we have a puppet paper government, we have clan fiefdoms posing as States and we have different religious movements competing for power.

 

We also have regional powers intent on seeing the Somali people forever suffering and in war. These regional states fuel the conflict in Somalia and fight any party that looks like a threat to the status quo.

 

Furthermore Somalia is the setting of proxy wars between various states and ideologies. In short Somalia is in anarchy.

In such a context, it is very important to not lose your vision for Somalia out of sight.

 

If we return to the whole purpose of the topic and the analysis presented we can see that the vision for Somalia is: a strong, independent, prosperous nation-state with strong democratic insitutions that guarantees basic freedoms to its citizens . In working towards such a vision we should present an analysis on how to achieve that end instead of weighting the different undesirable options against each other and been satisfied with the lesser evil.

 

Today's struggle is not much different than Yesterdays struggle if we overlook the superficial rethorics and focus on the fundamental issue: Somalia under anarchy and different political factions vying for political control and thus the leadership role in creating the next Somali state.

 

Now, why should we take a bus with one final destination and no transit stops, that we do not want while we can wait for the appropriate bus that either brings us directly to our final destination or has transit stops?

 

The ''Alshabab- Xisbi Islam'' bus is one-way ticket to a dictatorship which can come into existance, judging from the current trend, through sheer force and eventually will have to be toppled through sheer force, going by your analogy of the history teacher that came to the conclusion that violence is fought with violence.

 

Another question which we need to answer first is:

 

How is a future of constant fear for the oppressive state apparatus and living in unparralled poverty (large unemployment, international sanctions etc) better than the current situation whereby despite the anarchy that is concentrated in fews spots in Somalia there are many regions were Somali masses enjoy a living standard better than the future you have skecthed:

 

The Shabab - Xiz Islam government will be without a doubt an authoritarian government, no transparency, no accountability, we will not know where the punch came from. At first political opponents will disappear, then the intellectuals, the journalists reporting the truth. Innocent people will find themselves without a head, missing an arm or wonder why stones are hurled at them. There will be interference in private lives. They will send out directives on how people should dress, walk, eat and be.

 

The economy will not go anywhere either because there is embargo on the country and a naval blockade to enforce that embargo so we can not even trade with our most favored nations and fellow pariah states Iran, Sudan, Libya and North Korea.

 

We will be there in the Somali dessert, the Hawds, the mountains, the valleys and the ever growing cities. Unemployment levels up to 80% of the working population an authoritarian government interfering with every detail of our personal lives. Always living in fear, always expecting that knock on the door, always wondering who will snitch and tell a lie. You will say they took so much away what will they take next?

 

With the economic situation the way it is, with scarcity in the country those in power will get corrupter and corrupter. They will be no different then other authoritarian regimes in place today. Since they are incapable to make the country's economy grow they will direct the states resources for their personal gain. They will cannibalize on the people they were supposed to govern.

More importantly, the ideology of Alshabab/Xisbi Islam and the apparent dark future under their authoritarian rule has already encountered with mass opposition from the ordinary Somalis in Southern Somalia, particularly the heart of Somali anarchy: Mogadishu. So, how is it possible for the other Somalis living under peacefull conditions and a fair level of individual freedoms to ever embrace the Alshabab/Xisbi Islam faction and their future authoritarian rule?

 

As I said many times, we should not compare different undesirable paths to each other but should put our energy in devising an alternative developmental path which succeeds in presenting a future for the Somali people that all can identify with and will readily embrace it.

 

We have experienced 18 years of immense suffering, and we should not be satisfied with another long period under more severe conditions than the previous 18 years. Judging from our past, we deserve a future that gives us better living standards than we have experienced so far.

 

So, the challenge to every political faction in Somalia is: ''How will your ideology bring about a future that is better than our current and past?''

 

We need to move forward, not backwards.

[me]

Post Nr.4

 

Meiji,

 

You have started your reply with the following statement, and all that followed was built around that:

 

The struggle in Somalia is not about whether one applies violent or non-violent means to achieve ones political goals. That’s a tactical question, and should only be looked at after solving the strategic question and more importantly after scrutinizing the ideological goal of a particular political faction.

You have also made another valid point when you said:

 

we should not compare different undesirable paths to each other but should put our energy in devising an alternative developmental path which succeeds in presenting a future for the Somali people that all can identify with and will readily embrace it.

 

We have experienced 18 years of immense suffering, and we should not be satisfied with another long period under more severe conditions than the previous 18 years. Judging from our past, we deserve a future that gives us better living standards than we have experienced so far.

These two quotes form the core of your argument and I don't disagree with them, however in the context of this debate I believe although they are valid points they do not apply at this stage.

 

I am not looking at this situation from my ideal prospective of how I believe things should be. I am trying to explain how things are and how the situation can develop.

 

The ideology of the party does not matter in the current situation. All the parties we have at the moment are either in an armed struggle vying for power or they are irrelevant and mere spectators. The party that wins the war whether its a clan warlord that outwits all other players in the field or an armed Islamist movement, the outcome will be the same, a dictatorship. The shades of the dictatorship might differ but a dictatorship it will be as I argued in my previous post. We can look into the nuances of different dictatorships (i.e. benevolent despot etc.) in another post.

 

Now let us go back and look at the implications of your argument:

 

we should not compare different undesirable paths to each other but should put our energy in devising an alternative developmental path which succeeds in presenting a future for the Somali people that all can identify with and will readily embrace it.

Lets assume we do that and an alternative way is found, for convenience sake lets call this the third way. In the current situation of anarchy in order for this third way to be a viable alternative it has to become a reality on the ground. And for this to happen the third way has to either;

 

-Conquer its own territory,

-Find a host that's accommodating,

-Or it has to be an idea that lives among a certain section of the population (i.e. the intelligentsia, the civil societies, the youth etc.).

 

 

Conquer its own territory

 

Lets again assume that the third way finds a territory that's suitable. This territory will of course not be a vacuum that the party that is propagating the third way can step into. All the playgrounds are occupied by certain players or they are contested. For the third way to claim a territory it has to project power. It would be insanity to compete with an armed opposition when you are unarmed, lest you are a martyr. By doing this the third way becomes a party to the violence and thus a party of violence. Already we see this party becoming yet another participant of the war in our country. Instead of stopping the bloodshed it will become a contributor of it. Civilians will die, the 'neutrals' will condemn it, and the supporters of the third way will call it collateral damage and they will argue that their ideal is worth it. They will say that few may die now but in the long run they will safe many more. Hmmm...does this sound familiar? Isn't that the argument that the Islamists are using at the moment?

 

Find a host that's accommodating

 

If the party that's propagating the third way finds an accommodating host it will go through the same motions as when it would conquer its own territory. At first it would have to defend the territories it occupies and later on it would have to try to expand its territories by force or by other means at its disposal until it has outmaneuvered, outplayed and outgunned all its opponents and when we get there, there would be no democracy. We would get a dictatorship of the third way, just as I explained in my earlier post.

 

The party that's propagating the third way has just won the war and is imposing its will on the nation. It has a party program it wants to implement and a vision for the nation. So why would it make matters complicated for itself? Why would it hold free and fair elections where its former opponents can part take in? Where rival ideologies can erode the power the party has won by fighting for so long?

 

An idea that lives among a certain section of the population

 

This idea will remain just an idea in the current situation. An example of an idea that lives among many sections of the Somali population is Somalinimo. You will find this ideal everywhere, many Somalis support this idea yet we can see in the current situation that we will not get a government who supports the Somalinimo agenda. The closest ideology in the current situation is the Islamist ideology and we all know how far apart those two are.

 

The reason why this noble idea of Somalinmo is sidelined at the moment is because it has no militia, no territory, no power base and because of that in the current climate it is irrelevant. It could be that this idea of Somalinimo can become a contender when there is more stability in the country. But at the moment Somalinimo will remain on the background just as it has in the past 30 something years.

 

Conclusion

 

Whichever party that may come to represent the third way will have to choose between an armed struggle or a non-violent struggle. If it chooses for the armed struggle its chances are no better then other actors participating in the war, the dice can roll any way and it will lead to dictatorship. Furthermore regional powers will not accept any party that defends the true interest of the Somali people and the attitude of the International Community will depend on whatever foreign policy goals they have in place.

 

If the party that supports the third way adopts a non-violent posture and plays for the long term and rather then the short term it has a better chance to achieve its aim of a strong, independent, prosperous Somalia with strong democratic institutions that guarantees basic freedoms to its citizens.

 

Instead of having yet another armed faction in Somalia, our country needs an ideological movement. One that prepares for the post war Somalia and deals with the questions of how we should organize our society in order to guarantee the survival of our nation.

 

This means that an armed party will win the war and establish a dictatorship. At the backdrop of this dictatorship is where the party that proposes the third way will have to operate.

 

Finally there are two questions we can ask ourselves.

 

1. Can we go from our current state of anarchy to a democracy or do we first have to go through an authoritarian stage?

 

2. Which party is today in the best position to establish this authoritarian regime? And how will this affect the third way?

[Meiji]

Me,

 

The occurance of a political faction subduing all other contenders in Somalia and establishing itself as the paramount force with no credible opposition is rather unrealistic. Our recent 18 years long Civil War and our centuries-old history have proven one thing: Somali groups are too segmented and independent-minded for one political faction to establish complete hegemony in the Somali lands of the Horn.

 

Even if we look at the current Islamist faction we can already see the immense difficulties it encounters from various corners in establishing complete control over the whole country. It already encounters severe opposition in Mogadishu, Middle Shabelle, Hiiraan, Central regions let alone the opposition it would encounter in peaceful and organized regions like those in Northwestern and Northeastern Somalia.

 

It is now too early to tell whether the Islamist faction will succeed in establishing a complete hegemony in Somalia, but if we go by your reasoning we can safely say that:

 

A political faction that subdues all other opponents has no incentive to seek legitimacy from the people it needs to govern and will opt for a dictatorship in which the ruling clique forces its will upon society.

 

The likelihood of the above situation materializing in Somalia should be enough reason to oppose any political faction that is close in establishing such a dictatorship, for we all know, through our experience with the oppressive dictatorship of Barre, the immense cost of a dictatorship. Moreover, the prospect of a more oppressive dictatorship than the one we have already witnessed during the pseudo scientific socialism 21-year rule of the military regime, should be enough to discard your invitation to board on the ‘Alshabab-Xisbi Islam bus' with a pseudo-Islamist dictatorship as its final destination.

 

Before proceeding to answering your 2 questions I want to say a few things about your analysis of the third way.

 

Lets assume we do that and an alternative way is found, for convenience sake lets call this the third way. In the current situation of anarchy in order for this third way to be a viable alternative it has to become a reality on the ground. And for this to happen the third way has to either;

 

-Conquer its own territory,

-Find a host that's accommodating,

-Or it has to be an idea that lives among a certain section of the population (i.e. the intelligentsia, the civil societies, the youth etc.).

 

The mistake you make here is assuming that the 'third way' will be like the existing political factions with just a little twist or a different flavour as is the case with the Islamist faction. What you fail to understand is that not only an alternative ideology and vision for Somalia has to be devised but more importantly, the alternative should differentiate itself from the current political factions in every conceivable aspect. This means a completely different way of organization and the application of a new strategy complete with its new tactics.

 

In your analysis of the third way you have limited yourself to three familiar strategies in which the third way can become a reality on the ground. Not surprisingly all the three strategies have been and still are used by the various Somali political factions in translating their ideology into practice.

 

Three strategies:

 

-Conquer its own territory: used by the Clannist jabhado and today by the Islamist factions.

 

-Find a host that's accommodating:used by clannist and today by Islamist factions

 

-Or it has to be an idea that lives among a certain section of the population (i.e. the intelligentsia, the civil societies, the youth etc.): The Somaliland phenomenon which exists in the minds and hearts of a certain section of the population. The same for Puntland.

 

 

One can not talk about a third way while using the same modus operandi as the already existing political factions and expect to become different and succesfull than the existing political factions.

 

A third way should be complete with its alternative ideology and modus operandi (strategy & tactics).

 

We can discuss that idea another time.

 

Now, to return to your 2 questions of:

 

Finally there are two questions we can ask ourselves.

 

1. Can we go from our current state of anarchy to a democracy or do we first have to go through an authoritarian stage?

 

2. Which party is today in the best position to establish this authoritarian regime? And how will this affect the third way?

 

One thing is clear: we cannot go from the current state of anarchy abruptly to a fucntioning democratic and modern Somali state.

 

Thus, what we all can agree on is that there needs to be some sort of a transitional period in which the visible vices of the anarchy are brought back while the groundwork for the restoration of the Somali state is laid down.

 

The relevant question which we need to answer is:

 

- What kind of transitional period do we want in order to pave the way for the creation of a strong, independent, prosperous nation-state with strong democratic insitutions that guarantees basic freedoms to its citizens.

 

I would answer that question with:

 

None of the TFG bus and Alshabab-Xisbi Islam bus but the continuation of the current slow transformation going on Somalia.

 

I believe that the current phase of anarchy offers great opportunities to experiment with different modes of governance and organization which eventually brings us closer to our goal.

 

With the TFG bus our country becomes heavily dependend and controled by foreign powers as we lose control over our own fate while the Alshabab-Xisbi Islam bus forces the whole Somali society to go underground out of fear for the oppressive dictatorship.

 

On a last note,

 

The fact that the two of us can engage in an open debate about how the future of Somalia should look like and how to realize that vision is only possible because of the high living standard and the basic freedoms which we enjoy in the countries we currently live.

 

 

Under the dictatorship which you propose, we would not develop a critical and independent mind as the whole curriculum and free media would be controled by the dictatorial regime and in the case that we develop a healthy, critical and independent mind by luck we would be hunted down and locked up, if not executed, the moment we engaged in a open debate about state affaires and change.

 

That sad reality of dictatorship eventually leds to the fact that the whole society is deprived of

independent men who can come up with new ideas and ways, which as we all know is the main ingredient to move a society forward.

[NASSIR]

Me, is definately a King philospher and real concerned citizen.

One of the best threads of SOL.

 

LST should make this thread sticky.