The current state and the way ahead

[me]

The current state and the way ahead

 

It seems to me that allot contributors in this forum have been caught off guard by the recent developments in Mogadishu. Today Sharif, his foreign created, foreign imposed, foreign funded and foreign backed paper 'government' is holed up in Villa Somalia. As I write this he is hiding in a bunker in Villa Somalia surrounded by Ugandan mercenaries.

 

He must be wondering how it come to this? He is asking himself why are they fighting me when all I want is to bring peace to Somalia. Somehow I believe that he thinks that he is the president of Somalia.

 

The life was of Sharif was a remarkable life, from an average Joe to an employee of Mohamed Dheere to the iconic spokesperson of the ICU during the heroic war of resistance and now he is the man chosen by the powers that be to be the figurehead of Somalia.

 

Sharif is a good soul, I do not doubt that but he is not the leader Somalia needs now. He has no place in politics. He is a sheep among wolves, his weakness, indecisiveness and lack of vision is exasperating the challenging situation in Somalia.

 

At this moment he is no different then a fly trapped in a spiders web, a web of deceit woven by international actors pursuing their own national or business interests. He is supposedly the leader of the TFG a dysfunctional paper entity with built in weaknesses that make it unworkable. The TFG cannot work because of its design.

 

I speak for myself when I say that I want a strong, prosperous, united Somalia with strong democratic institutions. A Somalia that guarantees human dignity and freedom for all its citizens. I believe that many of you want the same for your country. Ask yourself how can we make this vision of a tolerant and innovative Somalia become reality?

 

Which path must we take, which road must we travel, which bus must we catch to come closer to our destination?

 

The TFG bus

 

The TFG promises a compromise, it requires that all the parties in Somalia's conflict agree to work together within the TFG framework. The parties must share the authority bestowed on them by the powers that be. The TFG in essence institutionalizes the civil war. It takes the battles from the streets but it doesn't take them from the hearts and minds. Under the TFG framework Somalia will forever be a weak, dividend nation, that requires foreign assistance for its existence.

 

The TFG model is not unique to Somalia. Other nations have experimented with similar models after going through a civil war. Lebanon is a good example of a country whose civil war has never ended. Lebanon's civil war has become institutionalized. The warring parties were coerced by the International Community to recreate the Lebanese Republic after a long and brutal civil war.

 

Today Lebanon has a form of government that can be termed Confessionalism a form of consociationalism in which the highest offices are proportionately reserved for representatives from certain religious communities. So in Lebanon the President is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the Parliament a Shi'a Muslim.

 

The Lebanese civil war may seem to have ended but in reality the tensions and the underlying problems that caused the Lebanese civil war are still there. All the parties in the civil war still have their areas of influence, their militia have not been disbanded and their organizational structures are still in place. Lebanon has a national army but this army is weaker then the militia's of the different groups. So we can say that the Lebanese civil war has not ended, they are only taking a break. The vault lines in Lebanese politics are visible and are exploited by neighboring countries and other international groups. Lebanon's wounds lay bare ready to be pushed by international actors fighting proxy wars.

 

Is this the future we want for Somalia? Do we want a weak and divided Somalia. Do we want a Somalia who is at the mercy of its neighbours? The TFG framework only promises us that clannism will be enshrined into our constitution. It promises us that clannism will be institutionalized and that it will govern all aspects of our lives.

 

The Al Shabab - Xiz Islam bus

 

Al Shabab - Xiz Islam do not promise us utopia. Those that believe that once Al Shabab - Xiz Islam win this war we will live happily ever after will get their rude awakenings. The road ahead is bumpy if we step into the Al Shabab - Xiz Islam bus. Allot of blood will be spilt, all of lives will be lost, many families will be broken apart and many cities will burn. If Mogadishu falls to the Al Shabab - Xiz Islam coalition, the biggest, nastiest and longest war in our history will start. And when that war ends in victory for them another equally dramatic phase will commence.

 

The Shabab - Xiz Islam government will be without a doubt an authoritarian government, no transparency, no accountability, we will not know where the punch came from. At first political opponents will disappear, then the intellectuals, the journalists reporting the truth. Innocent people will find themselves without a head, missing an arm or wonder why stones are hurled at them. There will be interference in private lives. They will send out directives on how people should dress, walk, eat and be.

 

The economy will not go anywhere either because there is embargo on the country and a naval blockade to enforce that embargo so we can not even trade with our most favored nations and fellow pariah states Iran, Sudan, Libya and North Korea.

 

We will be there in the Somali dessert, the Hawds, the mountains, the valleys and the ever growing cities. Unemployment levels up to 80% of the working population an authoritarian government interfering with every detail of our personal lives. Always living in fear, always expecting that knock on the door, always wondering who will snitch and tell a lie. You will say they took so much away what will they take next?

 

With the economic situation the way it is, with scarcity in the country those in power will get corrupter and corrupter. They will be no different then other authoritarian regimes in place today. Since they are incapable to make the country's economy grow they will direct the states resources for their personal gain. They will cannibalize on the people they were supposed to govern.

 

I am not sure if I can say anything positive about Al Shabab - Xiz Islam after writing that but the positives are also there.

 

Al Shabab - Xiz Islam promise us the final lesson. They will unite the country, they will destroy the cancerous warlords, they will destroy the clan system. They will teach us the meaning of freedom, accountability, transparency, because after them we will never want to live under either anarchy or authoritarianism. We will no longer be misled by clan sentiments, religious fervor nor shall we accept the shackles of powerful states in this world and their designs for our nation.

 

Conclusion

 

Today the choice is between our country being a vassal nation, subordinate to the will of other powers (TFG) or to be a pariah state that cannibalizes on its people (Al Shabab - Xiz Islam).

 

The TFG shackles us and burdens us with a weight that will trap us for a long time. The TFG will systematically destroy all that is Somalia. Sell whatever it can sell for the lowest price possible of course. The TFG will do what it was designed for, that is to serve as a mechanism to transfer the wealth of our nation to willing and grateful recipients.

 

On the other hand Al Shabab - Xiz Islam will be a temporary phenomenon. Somalia will be a pariah state but one that is free from the shackles of international powers. We will be a pariah state, but an independent one. Independence that we have bought with the blood of our fellow citizens. Somalia will be a pariah state that has the chance to be redeemed.

 

If our destination is a strong, prosperous, united Somalia with strong democratic institutions. A Somalia that guarantees human dignity and freedom for all its citizens then I say take the Al-Shabab - Xiz Islam bus and and change to the Freedom bus at midnimo square.

[Xidigo]

Nin buka boqol u tali.

[xiinfaniin]

Me, stop the neutrality feign, and die with your brethren in Xamar. The jihad you wanted is on, why resort to vain analysis now?

 

Without further confusion the situation in Xamar is dire for there is a raging war. The mechanics of this war are known, the sides well defined, and the outcome predictable. Sharif is a transitional president brought by reconciliation process, with a two-year term limited. He wanted peace and reconciliation, and brought a different tone. Sadly others construed his reconciliatory tone as a weakness and sought to exploit it.

 

It’s getting tough now, and the magnitude of their miscalculation is becoming clear, hence the situation analysis.

 

The Caravan is armed. Sharif is no longer Sh. Hotel. He is General Sharif.

[Goodir]

Whichever Hotel or General, in the end he is going to lose so are his opponents. No one wins anything in the end regardless the outcome.

 

Somalia is the victim and the Moq Soc. don't know what's good for them. Shariif is very timid to face off the shayadheen youth. I say bring Yeey back. He knows how to keep the Moqdisho fools at bay.

[xiinfaniin]

^^You see, raggii Yey taageeray digashadooda waan ogolahay. I can undestand their frustration with Sharif. Laakiin waxaan lay tusin waa kuwa aad moodid inay bur-burka profession ka dhigteen, oo maalin walba wiilkii yaree xabad rida u sacaba tumayya.

[Centurion]

What is clear is that Shariif's inaction is costing lives. The worst thing he could possibly do is do nothing, what is he doing Xiin?

 

He hasn't tackled the problem of these misguided fanatics, he hasn't tried to bolster his local support, he hasn't made any steps towards producing this joint security force he proposed. Sheikh shariif is fast losing his credibility.

 

And Me, the shabaab and their umbrella group are unworthy of governing even a square inch of Somalia, they have killed, maimed and destroyed more lives than any other group since the civil war, they are led by myopic savages who's taste for blood belies anything Islam stands for.

[xiinfaniin]

Fast losing credibility? because he was attacked by a man whose home coming he thought would be helpfull to further the progress made?

 

Xuzni thani is not akin to naivety in Islamic teachings awoowe.

 

Some element of justice is badly needed. Further more, generally speaking any analysis that ingore the context in which current events are unfolding have no integrety in my book.

[Centurion]

The point is Sheikh Shariif is doing NOTHING. By not taking the initiative he is on the defensive and people will prod and poke for weaknesses, errors will be made like the sea boundary fiasco.

 

-Set up a milita

-Begin building a judiciary

-actively seek meetings with the opposition

with promises of powersharing in a shariica based government

-Consult with local as well as national clan leaders

-Announce plans for UNISOM departure upon peace agreements

 

All easier said than done, but these are the some of the steps Sheikh Shariif should be taking, he needs to gain control of the capital within months, for any hope of success.

[General Duke]

Xiin: adeer Yey supporters are not frustrated with Sharif, he has made the situation worse, now thats frustrating, he has proven the old man was much more competent and had a real base.

[xiinfaniin]

Duke you are milking too much on this Yey thing. Let it go awoowe. Yey is gone from Somalia's political scene, and is in Yemen now.

 

Sharif is the leader now.

[Somali Pirate]

sharif is reactive.

 

not proactive. that's killing him. relying on foreign elements has killed sheikh sharif if it hasn't

[xiinfaniin]

^^

[General Duke]

^^^......

[General Duke]

^^^Xiin: Yusuf has resigned the point of my quest these few days is to highlight that we who supported the true government were correct and wronged.

 

All the arguments dear lad of the caravan fame have been debunked.

 

1. Foreign troops [sharif is hiding behidn them as we speak and they are shelling the city as you say in self defence].

 

2. The Sharif is popular and has a base[ well that went out of the window since he cant even keep the North safe, while it was under Yusuf.

 

3. Sharif does not work with warlords and is clan free. He is meeting clan elders and with Jeele, Sudi Yalaxoe & Mr Dheere [his old boss]

 

Sharif is an average politician ya Xiin, he is the leader of a few blocks of Mogadishu.

 

Not to mention the new face of Ashahado la dirir. Or God's enemy.

[Meiji]

Duke,

 

Please take your A.Yusuf propaganda to the other topic.

 

Dont ruin this interesting debate.