Chain of Command

[DigibAc]

the character of the resistance is clearly clan based. and so it should be, its how our society works so let use it where we can. every clan must understand that it is in the interest of somali people to remove ethiopians from the country. and each clan malitia should fight to remove the occupier from the land in whatever way and whereever they can.

 

this must be the case because there is no multi-clan armed group.

[BiLaaL]

Originally posted by Castro:

There's no slipping out of the back door. Meles stirred a hornets nest in Somalia and he will pay dearly for this. The Americans, who're in their own hornets nest in Iraq will cut him loose soon enough

.

He sure will pay dearly. The democracts are keen to review all major foreign initiatives from the Bush administration. Somalia will certainly be high on the list. Democrats aside, the Bush administration is clearly annoyed with how things have turned out in Somalia. They may cut Zenawi loose sooner than we think.

 

The Americans are learning a bitter lesson, one missed by all of our enemies, including the Ethiopians. That of misinterpreting disunity amongst clans. They don't realise that Somalis would gladly place the interests of their country above that of tribalism. It may take sometime to get to that stage, but it will happen. They are clear signs of that happening already.

 

Originally posted by Castro:

The whole idea of being a stooge and a puppet is that you've no tangible influence in the state of affairs

.

This was demonstrated in the most unambiguous of terms when the Ethiopians chose to hold direct talks with the elders. This is one of the gravest of crimes, diplomatically. Abdullahi Yusuf and his stooges may be in Mogadishu but sovereignty belongs to the Ethiopians. This is why the Ethiopians didn't even bother to ask for permission to hold direct talks with the elders. Ironically, Geedi denies that direct talks between the named parties ever took place. He denies this because admitting it would render their much priced titles useless.

 

Originally posted by NGONGE:

I can’t help thinking that your explanation seems to be a bit too perfect a story. Nothing about Somalia has been that perfect or straightforward. Nothing about POLITICS has ever been straightforward!

I certainly understand the complexity of politics in general and Somali politics in particular. When dealing with Somali politics, i’ve found that its best practice not to concentrate too much on the local players. Apart from the UIC, all other parties in Somali politics are heavily influenced from outside, whether by resource-hungry business interests or by individual nation states. Looking at it from that context, you soon realise that there is nothing complex about it. The truly complex parties in Somali politics are the UIC, complex because its roots have risen from within and their goals are forward looking. Charges of it not having a proper political wing are immature.

 

As for my theory being specualtive; i only wish that I was speculating. The picture that I paint is probably a mild version of what really took place. The US had its dirty fingers in the Somali conflict for a long time. It would be incorrect to assume that US involvement in Somali affairs began in reaction to the rise of the UIC. In fact, the UIC was partly established to protect innocent Somali civilians who were being snatched from mosques, schools and homes by CIA agents and their collaborators.

 

Another reason why this theory cannot be categorised as speculative is this: The rise of China and its bold entry into Africa had instilled a sense of urgency on the part of the US to speed up its long planned goals for Somalia.

 

Originally posted by NGONGE:

You believe Ethiopia invaded Somalia at the behest of America. Others think Ethiopia did it of its own back and for its own reasons. Worse still, many many others think Ethiopia’s aim is to colonise Somalia and that the Ethiopian army is never going to leave Somalia! Where does all of this fit into your analysis?

My analysis, as pointed out by Castro, is not supposed to be all-encompassing. It deals with matters prior to the invasion. In any case i'll briefly address some of the questions in the above quote.

 

Firstly, i believe that Ethiopia invaded at the behest of the US, but that it also had its own motives for invading. My contention is not so much with Ethiopia. We are all aware of Ethiopia's ancient dreams of occupying Somalia. Despite this, it was never in a position to achieve this on its own. As such, my real contenion is with the US for finally providing Ethiopia with the resources and diplomatic cover to invade Somalia.

 

In regards to Ethiopia colonising Somalia; i do agree that it would be an exaggeration to say that Ethiopia is bent on occupying Somalia for eternity. It would, however, not be an exaggeration to say that Ethiopia’s intention is to attain firm control over the most important institutions of any future Somali government.

 

In this modern age, one doesn’t need to maintain physical control over an area in order to control it. Ethiopia seeks to repeat the models it has successfully created and implemented in other regions of Somalia.

 

Finally, i think your scepticism about my post goes much deeper than the points you've raised thus far.

 

Correct me if i'm wrong but my impression is that you belong to a section of the Somali society who find it hard to comprehend the wisdom behind why Ethiopia, the US or anyone else for that matter, would wish to control Somalia. This notion that we have nothing special to offer is flawed. We tend to underestimate the strategic importance of our region in this new competitive world. Our enemies, on the other hand, do not underestimate the strategic importance of our region. This is why they have been busy hatching plan after plan, all aimed at securing influence in this critical region along with its much-priced resources.

 

If you do belong to the section of our society which holds the above stated view, then your in for a rude awakening. If our enemise have their way, our future looks very gloomy indeed. Its time we all rose to the depressing realities that face us and stop being in denial.

[BiLaaL]

Originally posted by Khalaf:

A contradiction don’t u think? If he has no control as u say, then how can he have the power to authorize the war?

He had control prior to the war. When I say that he illegally authorized the war, what I mean is that he went against the wishes of parliament in authorizing the so-called ‘invitation’ of Ethiopian ‘military trainers’. That in itself was illegal. You will have to go back to early August of 2006. See this for more info on - http://www.somaliaonline.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=9;t=008169

 

Originally posted by Khalaf:

I think we all know why the focus and grievances in this tradgedy is soley on AY and Puntland more so then Geedi and others the main culprits of this war and who are the biggest callers for the shelling of xamar, its all about clan nothing more nothing less

.

I blame Geedi and AY equally. I have no appetite for tribalism or anything connected to it. I’ve reiterated this in this forum many times before.

[NGONGE]

Originally posted by Xoogsade:

^ You can always clarify a bit more saxib instead of asking people to remove blinkers

 

 

Your arguments would make sense if the conditions on the ground were conducive for negotiated political settlements. You think, I assume from what you wrote, Geeddi and A/Y are interested in negotiating with others. .......

 

 

.....From what you wrote, you don't know the TFG characters very well. Go do your homework and then come back.

Again, I humbly request that you remove the blinkers and read my words as they were written. At no point did I suggest a negotiated settlement with the TFG, saaxib. Don't let your paranoia and preconceived judgments on me rule your head. READ WHAT I WROTE.

 

Bilaal,

 

Yours is all conjuncture presented as facts. It's very interesting and almost believable (it might even be true). But since you don't present any proofs for half of the statements you're making I think I'm left with no choice but to regard all your words there as simple hopeful speculation. I mean you no offence, saaxib. It's just that when one engages in political analysis one MUST present facts or else yours becomes no different to the TFG propaganda.

 

The only thing that puzzled me there is your dismissive answer regarding the Islamic Courts having a political wing. You reckon this is an immature idea! How so my friend? Put your emotions aside for a minute and explain to me how do you expect the ICU (and whatever clans that support them) to win this conflict? When I say win I don't only mean the war. Things, as I'm sure you know, are not likely to end there (no matter who wins). What will those fighting the TFG do once they win? What are their plans?

 

I get the feeling that many here are not interested in the aftermath of this war. All they want to see (they being supporters of the ICU) is a victory and the removal of the Ethiopian troops from Somalia. A great aim indeed but an unlikely one as things stand. The fighters will gallantly fight and (as is proven so far) hold their own against their enemies. But the longer this goes on, and without their supporters mobilising and setting up an alternative to the TFG (a different vision for Somalia), simple logic tells me (sadly) that they're going to lose.

 

Dare I see some sane people deal with these points instead of the irksome wailing and conspiracy theories?

[Castro]

^^^^ You're stuck with us insane lot atheer.

 

Those fighting the enemy will bring back the security, civil and judicial order they created out of nothing prior to this invasion. If by an "alternative to the TFG" you mean parading around the world wearing suits sucking up to anyone who would listen, you're in for a rude awakening. We've seen in a few short months what the Courts have accomplished and absent further interference, I've no doubt in my mind it can be done again.

 

Born-again warlord politicians do not a government make.

[NGONGE]

You deliberately choose to look at this in a negative way, saaxib. The Courts brought peace to a small section of an entire country. I hate flogging this dead horse and again and again. But flog I must. The Courts (great as they were) were nothing but glorified administrators. They were not politicians and DID not have any tangible plans for the future of Somalia. This is really why they failed. Fact, ‘atheer’, no conspiracy.

 

When I suggest a political wing, only someone with the blinkers firmly on would read that as ‘parading around the world wearing suits sucking up to anyone who would listen’! I already give you the examples of the IRA and others. In the case of the IRA, they had Sinn Fein as their political wing. Both military and political wings were despised by the UK government and regarded as terrorists. Yet, when the time was ripe for negotiation the framework for a political party was already there and ready to take over in a time of peace. The other examples of resistance/liberation or opposition movements are as good and logical as the IRA example. It’s not about selling your soul to the devil (America and the West); it’s about being an alternative to this current incompetent government. Alas, since the TFG lacks proper, coherent and organised political opposition there really is no chance in hell that the fighters in the Somali capital will triumph or that the Ethiopians will leave.

[Castro]

Can you prove this: "they [the Courts] were not politicians and DID not have any tangible plans for the future of Somalia."?

 

This is really why they failed. Fact, ‘atheer’, no conspiracy.

Really? I thought the 30,000 Ethiopian troops had something to do with it. I may be wrong. LOL.

[Peacenow]

Castro, very good points from you. Again.

You made a good point yesterday, about a creating a government in exile. This idea needs to be looked at very closely.

People are united against the TFG, but ideas are not joined together, behind one voice. A framework for a exile group is already there in Asmara. But Asmara is not the best base, They need to move to Europe.

[NGONGE]

Originally posted by Castro:

Can you prove this: "they [the Courts] were not politicians and DID not have any tangible plans for the future of Somalia."?

 

quote:

---

This is really why they failed. Fact, ‘atheer’, no conspiracy.

Really? I thought the 30,000 Ethiopian troops had something to do with it. I may be wrong. LOL.

The proof is in the pudding, atheer. Politicians only fight the fights they're sure of winning. Plus, what sort of silly question is this? Are you saying they did have some hidden plan that we didn't know about?

 

As for the 30,000 Ethiopians..remind me again of who give them the motives to invade? You're playing with facts here, saaxib.

[Castro]

^^^^ The ICU was not the motive, they were the opportunity. That's another topic however. Whatever plan they had (or you claim they didn't) never saw the light of day.

 

And since we're on the topic, what is the TFG's "plan"?

[Fabregas]

Originally posted by NGONGE:

 

 

As for the 30,000 Ethiopians..remind me again of who give them the motives to invade? You're playing with facts here, saaxib.

 

The somali warlords because they could not do the Job for the U.S. Thus straight after they were defeated thousands of Ethio troops crossed the border(June/July time). A certain president at this time was condeming the support of warlords by the U.S..admin.......