Chain of Command

[BiLaaL]

Abdullahi Yusuf has promptly flown back to Addis Ababa only a day after flying back into Baidoa. Using these flurry of visits as a precursor, let us try to map out the sort of command structure the resistance is dealing with.

 

There are unconfirmed reports that this latest 'urgent' trip to Addis came at the behest of Ethiopian generals. These generals are inturn said to be responding to reports from their colleagues in Mogadishu, most of who are reported to be eager to engage in talks with the resistance. Yet other reports indicate that Ethiopian generals in Mogadishu are already engaged in talks with the resistance.

 

Ethiopian generals and their influence over military operations aside; its commonly believed that the real decisions are made by high ranking U.S. Generals from CENTCOM. U.S. intelligence is behind the scenes working very closely with Ethiopia. This was demonstrated by a visit to Addis Ababa late last year made by the former commander of CENTCOM, John Abizaid. Prior to this visit, Meles Zenawi did not have the intelligence capabilities, money or the diplomatic cover with which to invade Somalia. The visit by General Abizaid neatly placed all these variables on the table for Meles.

 

Of what significance was that visit in the context of current Ethiopian operations, you may ask? Well, the fact remains that the Ethiopian invasion and current occupation of Somalia wouldn't have been possible without the tacit diplomatic and military support the provided by the U.S. to the Ethiopians. It therefore stands to reason that Ethiopian tanks would not have continued to roll into Somali territory were this support still not in place.

 

The new CENTCOM chief Admiral William J. Fallon like his predecessor, John Abizaid, is eager to produce results from the rather expensive contingent of U.S. naval armada just off the shores of Mogadishu.

 

So, just what kind of command structure are we dealing with?

 

Diplomatically, the U.S.’s modern day plantation runner, Jendayi Frazer, will deliver the message straight from the Pentagon to Meles Zenawi. This part of the structure has thus far functioned without a hitch. Meles passes his instructions, this time in the master position, to his slave Abdullahi Yusuf.

 

Militarily, the command structure seems to be failing. There are number of factors hindering its progress, not least the strength of the resistance. Here’s how the correspondence between the main players might play out:

 

U.S. Generals: Our air strikes earlier in Janurary targeting ‘Al-Qaeda’ operatives were not successful. We have ‘credible’ evidence to suggest that all the major players are now in Mogadishu. We must go after them. Do whatever is necessary. We must get these guys at any cost.

 

Ethiopian Generals in Addis to Generals in the field: We have clear orders that we must hunt down ‘Al-Qaeda’ operatives in Mogadishu. Go after them. Don’t worry about the civilians. The Americans have a new name for civilian casualties. They call them ‘collateral damage’.

 

Generals in the field: We may need more sophisticated hardware, the resistance is strong.

 

Generals in Addis to U.S. generals: We need more sophisticated weaponry. We are losing a lot of men. This is not as easy as you made it seem. – BTW - civilian casualties are rising. We fear for the legal standing of our generals in the field.

 

U.S. Generals: We’ll provide you with all the weapons you need. Our military base in Djibouti is overfilled with unused arsenal. Don’t worry about the legal standing of this war. We’ve got you covered. On that note though, some of your military manoeuvres have been pretty ****** of late. What happened to all the training we’ve provided you with?

 

This correspondence goes back and forth and will continue to do so until there is a change of Administration in the U.S. or until the Americans realise that the Ethiopians are incapable of subduing Somalia, irrespective of the sort of military support it receives.

 

Meanwhile, Meles Zenawi feels more trapped each passing day. His intention was to use the U.S. military to achieve his dream of installing a puppet regime in Somalia. Having installed his puppet regime, he unexpectedly found the going tough. He is now hoping to slip out the back door and leave a fragmented country. The Americans, however, are demanding every cent of their investment and forcing Meles to stay in Somalia, until Somalia is free of the invisible enemy called 'Al-Qaeda'.

 

Some of you may have been waiting to read about the role of Abdullahi Yusuf in this command structure. Sorry to disappoint but Yey has no place. How else would one explain the thousands of statements made by himself and Gedi warning of an imminent offensive, only to have the so-called offensive delayed for weeks by the real planners and controllers of this war.

 

He neither gives an order of any kind nor transmits or performs the order. Odd really. This man will end up bearing all the responsibility for a war he has no control over. Why hold him responsible, you ask? The simple answer: Because he illegally authorised the invasion of his own country and applauds as his own people are being massacred.

[Castro]

Originally posted by BiLaaL:

Meanwhile, Meles Zenawi feels more trapped each passing day. His intention was to use the U.S. military to achieve his dream of installing a puppet regime in Somalia. Having installed his puppet regime, he unexpectedly found the going tough. He is now hoping to slip out the back door and leave a fragmented country. The Americans, however, are demanding every cent of their investment and forcing Meles to stay in Somalia, until Somalia is free of the invisible enemy called 'Al-Qaeda'.

There's no slipping out of the back door. Meles stirred a hornets nest in Somalia and he will pay dearly for this. The Americans, who're in their own hornets nest in Iraq will cut him loose soon enough.

 

Some of you may have been waiting to read about the role of Abdullahi Yusuf in this command structure. Sorry to disappoint but Yey has no place. How else would one explain the thousands of statements made by himself and Gedi warning of an imminent offensive, only to have the so-called offensive delayed for weeks by the real planners and controllers of this war.

Bilaal, you're right on the money. The whole idea of being a stooge and a puppet is that you've no tangible influence in the state of affairs. A glorified rubber stamp. Some here would like us to believe this nincompoop, Yeey, who was caught on camera counting with his fingers when interviewed by the BBC, is the political 'genius' directing a US/Ethiopian invasion?

 

He neither gives an order of any kind nor transmits or performs the order. Odd really. This man will end up bearing all the responsibility for a war he has no control over. Why hold him responsible, you ask? The simple answer: Because he illegally authorised the invasion of his own country and applauds as his own people are being massacred.

You're absolutely right again. None of his crimes as a warlord compares to this colossal failure in judgment. For the small prize of living in Villa Somalia (at least for a few peaceful nights back in January), this b*stard has washed his hands in the blood of innocent Somali men, women and children. And for that, he may rot here and in hell.

 

Geedi, the animal doctor, is the exact moral and intellectual replica of Yeey, the wild dog. The invaders really know how to pick them. It's the same in every country. Except their cynicism in the case of Somalia of pairing a veterinarian with a wild dog. Meles must have been laughing all the way to the bank to cash American checks if the thought ever crossed his mind.

[NGONGE]

Nice speculative work there, Bilaal. However, I can’t help thinking that your explanation seems to be a bit too perfect a story. Nothing about Somalia has been that perfect or straightforward. Nothing about POLITICS has ever been straightforward!

 

The one clear thing throughout (and despite what the TFG fans say) is that the Somali resistance contains all sorts of conflicting views. You believe Ethiopia invaded Somalia at the behest of America. Others think Ethiopia did it of its own back and for its own reasons. Worse still, many many others think Ethiopia’s aim is to colonise Somalia and that the Ethiopian army is never going to leave Somalia! Where does all of this fit into your analysis?

 

The Somali resistance is great. Their goals are noble and one will always support someone defending his own lands against invasion. But, truly, it is the Islamic Courts all over again. The military fight and administration is being fought gallantly but there is not a single iota of political know-how to be found. Because of a lack of such a strategy and overall eventual plan I seriously fear that, sooner or later, the resistance may fizzle out and die.

[Castro]

Originally posted by NGONGE:

Nice speculative work there, Bilaal. However, I can’t help thinking that your explanation seems to be a bit too perfect a story. Nothing about Somalia has been that perfect or straightforward. Nothing about POLITICS has ever been straightforward!

You don't think Bilaal's is a plausible explanation? A "bit too perfect" is hardly a critique atheer. Won't you come out and say what you have in mind. If you don't think this is how it went down, tell us, please, how you think it went down.

[NGONGE]

^^^

 

I tend to believe that both the President and Prime Minster do have a say in what is going on in Somalia. I don’t think they’re the worthless poodles that people are portraying them as. Granted, they don’t have an overall say on how things should unfold but I still think that their voices are heard and input taken into consideration. It’s politics, my friend, and every participant is likely to have an ace or two up their sleeve.

 

Still, my sneering here was not really directed at the breakdown of the chain of command. That issue is neither here nor there. It seems to be that Bilaal is simply trying to direct his anger and energy somewhere and fair play to him. But it is still all pointless and aimless conjecture.

 

I’m sorry Castro. I do understand your anger, frustration and even (possibly) despair at this situation. But I also can see how all those that oppose the TFG (apart from the actual fighters in the battlefield) seem to be toothless and intellectually vacant. It’s been four months since the invasion and one still hears the same old rhetoric from both sides. The problem is that the TFG fans do have a plan (evil or not it still looks like a semblance of a plan). Those opposing the TFG don’t look like they have any plans whatsoever (save hoping that the resistance triumphs!).

 

Think SNM, IRA, ETA, Mujahedin-e-Khalq and the countless opposition movements in history! All these groups had a POLITICAL wing that whilst showing and listing the faults of the incumbent government also acted as an alternative to that government. The tribal leaders in the Somali capital and the odd remnants of the Islamic Courts cannot act as an attractive alternative today. They’re not organised (politically) enough to do so. The best I’ve seen so far was the recent UK meeting but even there, the whole thing fell far short of what is needed. If you want to topple this government you need to provide a viable alternative. Heck! If I were one that was immersed in Somali politics (like many in here) I’d seriously consider starting the ball rolling on such an enterprise. Think it over saaxib and if you do have the contacts to politicians of the opposition, ask them why are they not providing the Somali people with such an alternative. Failing that, I fear that we all really have no alternative but to acknowledge the TFG monster. Anger, tantrums and speculations about trivial chains of command are nothing but a waste of time and energy.

[Castro]

^^^ Saaxib this was a theory of how the recent conflict was engineered and executed. It was not about who has a plan and who doesn't. Also, don't you think it's a little too convenient and entirely unfair to accuse someone of not having a plan when their perfectly working plan was destroyed under aircraft and tank shelling?

 

And I'm not sure how you can sit there and call these buffoons "men with a plan" when they've clearly been hand picked and shoved down the throats of all Somalis by the very people who're bombing them into heaven.

[Ms DD]

Ng

 

Sometimes no plan is better than some plan. Before the ICU, there was some sort stability resemblence in some areas of Muqdishu (whereas there was nogo areas). Business was still booming and even couple of family members moved back to Muqdishu from Europe (for the sake of their kids). Now those families have once again expereinced qax labaad. So the plan TFG has for Muqdishu is better than having no political plan for the city.

[NGONGE]

^^^ And in the 1980s Somalia was a sovereign republic ruled by a President and run by civil servants, etc. He (the former President) lost it all because of his actions and political mistakes. The ICU lost it because of their actions and lack of political know-how. Are you saying then the alternative to the TFG is the Islamic Courts? Well, fine, they should come out and form an alternative government in exile or something. I know it’s difficult when women, children and the infirm are being bombed, killed and made homeless but I still reckon that somebody needs to be looking beyond the events of today and planning for the outcomes of tomorrow. The fighters are doing their part and are attempting to dislodge the invader (and those they view as collaborators). Now, for a balanced picture, somebody needs to be representing the political side of this resistance.

 

Castro

 

Their plan is to RULE Somalia. They have international help. You’re within your rights to hate these men and all they stand for. But don’t go against logic, saaxib. Their plan might eventually prove disastrous and result in their downfall but it IS a plan nonetheless.

[me]

Originally posted by NGONGE:

^^^ And in the 1980s Somalia was a sovereign republic ruled by a President and run by civil servants, etc. He (the former President) lost it all because of his actions and political mistakes. The ICU lost it because of their actions and lack of political know-how. Are you saying then the alternative to the TFG is the Islamic Courts? Well, fine, they should come out and form an alternative government in exile or something. I know it’s difficult when women, children and the infirm are being bombed, killed and made homeless but I still reckon that somebody needs to be looking beyond the events of today and planning for the outcomes of tomorrow. The fighters are doing their part and are attempting to dislodge the invader (and those they view as collaborators). Now, for a balanced picture, somebody needs to be representing the political side of this resistance.

Couldn't agree more, they need to plan for tommorow so that when the TFG is gone, they can step in and take over. The problem we had in 1991 was that no one planned ahead and when Siyad Barre fell the rebels turned on each other.

[Ms DD]

I can see your logic Ngone and Me. However what do you suggest happen for now? Shall they roll over and let the Meles and his puppets rule over them? Is that plan better than no plan at all?

 

In the case of fall of S Barre, I really wish Aydid had a plan..so in a way, in this instance, I fully agree with you logic. But as things stand now, it is whole different ball game.

 

I think ICU had their time and missed it.

[me]

^^No one should roll over, but the military side and the political side can go hand in hand. The first thing that should be done is that they should organize a genuine reconciliation forum and a Somali government in exile. The resistance should be united only they can it be more effective. This government should include all the people in the Somali Republic otherwise there is no point.

[Khalaf]

Originally posted by BiLaaL:

He neither gives an order of any kind nor transmits or performs the order.

Odd really. This man will end up bearing all the responsibility for a war he has no control over. Why hold him responsible, you ask? The simple answer: Because

he illegally authorised the invasion of his own country and applauds as his own people are being massacred.

A contradiction don’t u think? If he has no control as u say, then how can he have the power to authorize the war? I think we all know why the focus and grievances in this tradgedy is soley on AY and Puntland more so then Geedi and others the main culprits of this war and who are the biggest callers for the shelling of xamar, its all about clan nothing more nothing less. I dare say the conflict would stop if AY was not the head of the TFG, and someone from clan of majority of xamar was given the post. But whatever the outcome of this conflict if ethiopia stays or not, politically entities will come and go, men will come and go, but the somali reality will remain a divided peoples.

 

Ps: How about the chain of command of the opposition on the ground now in Mogadishu? No clear picture.

[Fabregas]

Ngonge, what do you want them to do:

 

Go on marches?

Protest in Somalia?

Organise Hungerstrikes?

Send Petitions to the United nations?

Ask the Ethiopians to let them form an opposition party?

[NGONGE]

^^^ Did you see any of that in my words, saaxib? What in the world made you reach that conclusion?

 

My words above are very clear. Why not take the blinkers off and toy a little with the ideas I gave you?

[Xoogsade]

^ You can always clarify a bit more saxib instead of asking people to remove blinkers

 

 

Your arguments would make sense if the conditions on the ground were conducive for negotiated political settlements. You think, I assume from what you wrote, Geeddi and A/Y are interested in negotiating with others. Have you listened to these men talk about their political views? You should try and then make a judgement. If they were into politics for the love of their country and had the interests of their people at heart, nothing of what is happening would have happened and they would have settled matters peacefully when they had the chance. They were not independent to think the crisis through either and they are not still. And least of all, these are men fearful of somalis, they trust no one else but people like them, their enemy seems to be the one sitting next to them whom they think is a threat to their political fortunes.

 

Geeddi called for more bombing and told residents to leave, he wants to see this through and convinces everyone who would listen to his stories that their opposition is a minority, one subclan among other clans, and therefore, he should be helped in eliminating this minor threat instead of sitting down with them to start the political settlements. A/Y said the same thing in Addis. Even Zenawi was quoted as saying, it is only Aweys' clan opposing the TFG and the rest of somalis love the TFG. From what you wrote, you don't know the TFG characters very well. Go do your homework and then come back.