BREAKING NEWS: Yeey and Aweys are gearing up for a final showdown

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Somalia military movements increase as talks near

13/07/2006 21:17

By C. Bryson Hull

 

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Somalia’s government has reinforced its militias and ally Ethiopia has sent more troops over the border days before talks with powerful Islamists who threaten its slim authority, experts said on Thursday.

 

Those moves, along with government reluctance to negotiate with the Islamists because of their hard-line leadership, have raised fears both sides are headed for military confrontation.

 

President Abdullahi Yusuf’s government and the Islamists, who took Mogadishu last month after defeating a group of U.S.-backed warlords, were due for a second round of Arab League-brokered talks on power-sharing in Khartoum on Saturday.

 

Sudanese television monitored in London said those talks had been postponed. It was not immediately possible to confirm this.

 

Yusuf’s government and the Islamists, who want to impose strict sharia law to tame anarchy in the Horn of Africa nation of 10 million, are deeply distrustful of each other.

 

Roughly 2,000 Ethiopian troops earlier this week crossed in at Dollow, where the borders of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia converge, along with several tanks to complement about 2,000 soldiers already there, various sources said.

 

"They had crossed with tanks, about a dozen, and about another 2,000-3,000 men," a Western diplomat said.

 

A military expert who monitors security daily and a government official based in Baidoa -- the government’s temporary base and only outpost -- confirmed that.

 

"The Ethiopian troops are in several locations within Somalia, scattered all over in Dollow, Bulahawo, Wajid and in other remote locations on the outskirts of Baidoa," the Somali government official said.

 

"Most of the troops are ethnic Somali Ethiopians," he said.

 

The sources declined to be named because their positions do not allow them to speak to the press on sensitive matters.

 

’MILITARY MINDSET’

 

On Wednesday, defeated warlord Mohamed Dheere handed over about 420 fighters and 35 "technicals" -- pickups mounted with heavy weapons -- to the government.

 

"The plan is for his militias to be reinforced and then move forward to Baledogle," the military expert told Reuters, referring to a strategic town on the Baidoa-Mogadishu road.

 

The Islamists are still after the beaten warlords. Eight people were killed when they attacked the rural hideout of warlord Mohamed Qanyare, north of Mogadishu, including five gunmen who died when their pickup lorry hit a landmine.

 

Ethiopia -- which has branded the Islamists "terrorists" -- on Thursday again denied entering Somalia.

 

"Ethiopia categorically denies that its troops have crossed into Somalia. It is the usual fabrication being dished out by Somali Islamists to confuse the international community," Ethiopian Defence Ministry spokesman Dawit Assefa said.

 

Yusuf has long been backed by Ethiopia, including in battles against the Islamists’ hardline leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, in the years after warlords toppled dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 and set 15 years of anarchy loose.

 

Western diplomats worked hard on Thursday to make sure the government attends the talks. But they said it appeared Yusuf did not want to go, or even send a high-level delegation.

 

"He’s just been very much in his military mindset these days," a European diplomat said. "If they do not go, then my fear is there will be some kind of military confrontation."

 

A draft U.N. Security Council resolution obtained by Reuters appears to show support for Yusuf’s African Union-backed request for foreign peacekeepers and a limited waiver of a 1992 arms embargo, required to allow them in.

 

The Islamists refuse to accept foreign troops and some in their ranks have threatened a holy war should Ethiopia in particular come to Somalia.

 

(Additional reporting by Guled Mohamed in Mogadishu and Tsegaye Tadesse in Addis Ababa)

 

On Wednesday, defeated warlord Mohamed Dheere handed over about 420 fighters and 35 "technicals" -- pickups mounted with heavy weapons -- to the government.

 

"The plan is for his militias to be reinforced and then move forward to Baledogle," the military expert told Reuters, referring to a strategic town on the Baidoa-Mogadishu road.

 

The Islamists are still after the beaten warlords. Eight people were killed when they attacked the rural hideout of warlord Mohamed Qanyare, north of Mogadishu, including five gunmen who died when their pickup lorry hit a landmine.

 

Ethiopia -- which has branded the Islamists "terrorists" -- on Thursday again denied entering Somalia.

 

"Ethiopia categorically denies that its troops have crossed into Somalia. It is the usual fabrication being dished out by Somali Islamists to confuse the international community," Ethiopian Defence Ministry spokesman Dawit Assefa said.

 

Yusuf has long been backed by Ethiopia, including in battles against the Islamists’ hardline leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, in the years after warlords toppled dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 and set 15 years of anarchy loose.

 

Western diplomats worked hard on Thursday to make sure the government attends the talks. But they said it appeared Yusuf did not want to go, or even send a high-level delegation.

 

"He’s just been very much in his military mindset these days," a European diplomat said. "If they do not go, then my fear is there will be some kind of military confrontation."

 

A draft U.N. Security Council resolution obtained by Reuters appears to show support for Yusuf’s African Union-backed request for foreign peacekeepers and a limited waiver of a 1992 arms embargo, required to allow them in.

 

The Islamists refuse to accept foreign troops and some in their ranks have threatened a holy war should Ethiopia in particular come to Somalia.

 

(Additional reporting by Guled Mohamed in Mogadishu and Tsegaye Tadesse in Addis Ababa)

 

Tiscali

[Duufaan]

"kii roonoow reerka uhadh' we need a winner. moqdisho wars produce a winner side after about 400 died with most of them civilian, I do not known if this one will do it. Odey Abdilaahi need to capture moqdiso and the court to capture Baydhabo

[me]

We need a winner.

 

I dont care who wins. Let there be a winner and let that winner bring a lasting peace,let them become dictators and I will defend their dictatorship.

 

This time no more revolutions, no more rebels no more BS. Its better to have a bad dictator then no dictator at al.

 

If we want government chances in the future, think about SIT INS, BOYCOTTS, PETITIONS and PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATIONS.

 

Yes I am prepared to serve da winner (as long as its a somali winner and he unites the nation)

[xiinfaniin]

It's rather Aweys vs. Ethopia. If it comes to a conflict at all, that is.

 

I doubt if ICU are interested in a military conflict outside of Mogadishu. The old man is also practically toothless and resorting to a full-blown conflict is not his first choice. But, truth be told, men like Caydiid and Geedi are the ones who are beating these war drums. Surely Ethiopia is determined to face off the Courts. With homeless warlords with them, and Baidabo being the only possible staging area for their intervention, Ethiopia could easily end the TFG as we know it if old man resists their plan. The old game has once more started.

 

There are dark clouds hanging over Baidabo as Ethiopia’s hand is becoming more evident than TFG is willing to admit. But one thing is for sure: they won’t be able to halt the progress made in Mogadishu. And if Qaybdiid’s publicized meeting with Geedi is something to go by, helping regroup defeated warlords won’t take this government to a victory. It will only hasten its collapse. Deservedly so, I say.

 

 

Allow sahal libaax seexday bay niman salaaxeene..!

[Gabbal]

It's rather Aweys vs. Ethopia. If it comes to a conflict at all, that is.

I guarantee you this job will not be left only to Aweys.

 

If Ethiopia thinks it can sustain an occupation in Somalia, let her try.

 

More and more this is turning out to be the deciding moment of the civil war and it's end.

 

Ethiopia and their clients will be rebuffed by ALL Somali patriots.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

its not occupation if the government invites you.

[Gabbal]

^What government?

[Thierry.]

a final showdown indeed.

Somalis have defeated foreign troops of higher calibre before.

this might be a defining moment for the ****** region let alone Somalia and Baidoa

[me]

Naxar isku xishood, Xabashi maanta ha noo faanin.

 

Dagaalkan Soomaali ayuu ka dhexeeyaa, angu ama aan hashiino ama aan is dhameeno.

 

Anigo oo Soomaali ah maanta Somalinimo uma iibsanayo qabiil.

 

Cadowgeena waa in aan iska islaalinaa.

 

Oga- sida lagu qabsaday ma taqaanaa?

 

Sidee buu Manelik Oga-denia ku qabsaday waligaa ma is weydiisay?

 

Qabiilo Soomaaliyeed inta uu dab ka dhex shiday oo uu cadawtinimo isagu abuuray ayuu markii danbana ku yiri, ciidamo ayaan idin dhex dhigayaa idin hesheeya, markii uu ciidamadiisa dulkeenayna, kuligood hubkii wuu ka qaaday, guumeysigiina wuu ku bilaabay. Ilaaiyo maantana waa la haystaa dadkaas.

 

Maanta Soomaaliya sidii uu ku qabsaday Menelik ******ia ayuu maanta Meles ku wada Jamhuuriyada Soomaaliya.

 

Marka anigu qabiil kama dooranayo Soomaalinimo

 

Naxarow anigu waan arkaawax walba, waan arkaa ICU in hal qabiil u badan yahay, waan arkaa in TFG qabiil loo wato.

 

Kuligeen Soomaali ayaan nahay waanna is naqaanaa, marka fakar.

 

Anagu ama waa in aan heshiinaa ama waain aan is dhameenaa, laakiin marnaba in aan cadowgeena guud aan u soo kaxaysano walaalaheen Soomaaliyeed ma aha.

[Duufaan]

Odey Abdilaahi need to maintain public support to survive. His in Baydhabo, far from Gaalkaacayo. Any bad move will damage him hard. the thiopian need him this time and he must play a balanced policy to aviod being another warlod. Geedi, Caydiid and Qaydiid has contributed little for this goverment so far and I very much doubt they have any publuc support in moqdisho. So much stake in Khartuun, the court is better position but TNG must to go and Odey Abdilaahi himself must to go.

[Paragon]

Adeerayaal collaadda naga jooja!

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Cadowga Soomaalia and Somalis is the instability in the south that continues to take new form every year when Somalis try to solve it.

[Xoogsade]

Naxar, the instability had a cause and the cause was largely removed, the men who were responsible for the brutal devision and hatred in Muqdisho are in baydhabo welcomed by A/Y and his government. For the first time, Muqdisho is celeberating the removal of the green line as well as that of the psychological barrier laid by Qeybdiid, Ina Aydiid and etc. What do you guys want from us? Why are you asking for our blood and yet claim to be muslims? What you and the likes of you want is the blood of muslims in mUqdisho to be spilled under the excuse of establishing a government when in fact these people want to work with the government and expressed no objection to it. Why are you so hateful to teh extent of wanting to see the blood of people spilled?

 

 

Munaafaqnimada ka toobad keena adiga iyo wixii kugu caqli ah and stop demanding our blood and that of our relatives and parents.

[RedSea]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

[

Allow sahal libaax seexday bay niman salaaxeene..

! [/QB]

Ishaa ka laadlaada Dacawo (the warlords) kumuu quus qaadan miyaa Oday Abdullahi Yusuf iyo wixii lasocdaaba?

[General Duke]

Its over blown hype. Many here are jumping to conclusions, the TFG is not Qaynyare, Qaybdeed and the other jokers.

 

The clan courts know this, thus their willingless to negotiate for now, they have suffered many losses in the latest clashes and are not ready. Xasan Dahir is in his regions building up support forces.

 

I remember an allpuntland article a month ago warning about an eminant attack on Baidoa, it did not materialise. Or an attack by the TFG on lower Shabbele and Mogadishu..