Somalia down the drain........if not stopped and intervened to prevent it............

[xiinfaniin]

^^ Aamiin to that.

 

But I find your analogy here quite interesting. Adeer TFG is just that, transitional. The multi-year process you referred to was not a unique process. In fact, it has been one of many such processes that were held in a bid to produce a compromised form of government. In my mind there’s nothing that makes this process different than the one that preceded it and produced the Carta government. It was a step forward as it supposedly created a platform where warlords could voice political differences and attempt to govern rather than fight and kill each other, and in the process kill us, the innocent Somalis. But it was not to be. And you know it. a combination of Mogadishu warlords’ effort to impede any government, foreign intervention, and the sheer incompetence of its leaders hindered what ever potential success it could have. It has become ineffective, and quite frankly short of any agreement with the Courts, it will die right there in Baydhabo. Reason: one can’t govern his subjects by foreign troops. Simple.

 

Politically uninitiated of us might ask what would Courts achieve. The answer is, again, simple. Courts would either sit down with this government and dilute its secular nature or sit it out and wait till it vanishes technically or politically. Because they are ideologically driven (Courts are) all the money in the world would not buy their support. Hence the only way out of this impasse is to negotiate with clear understanding of each other. But if the General Duke’s understanding of the Courts mimics that of the old man, we are indeed in trouble. For Courts are no clannish in nature and theirs transcend tribal boundaries as they are defined. One needs to wise up and understand his foes.

 

Ethiopia has interest in Somalia and it would pursue it relentlessly--you are correct on that accord. But has Ethiopia helped TFG or hindered it? Can TFG, even if it wants to, really seek peace without Ethiopia, and ultimately reverse our political misfortunes?

 

I am leaning toward the notion that says that TFG is beholden to Ethiopia that it will ultimately perish in its hands.

 

 

[edit] Annaasu macaadinun, is an Arabic sentence. In fact it’s in a prophetic hadith that asserts that there are certain genes in us that could hardly mutate! Where was I going with it is another thread yaa ThePoint!

[ElPunto]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

^^ Aamiin to that.

 

But I find your analogy here quite interesting. Adeer TFG is just that, transitional. The multi-year process you referred to was not a unique process. In fact, it has been one of many such processes that were held in a bid to produce a compromised form of government. In my mind there’s nothing that makes this process different than the one that preceded it and produced the Carta government. It was a step forward as it supposedly created a platform where warlords could voice political differences and attempt to govern rather than fight and kill each other, and in the process kill us, the innocent Somalis. But it was not to be. And you know it. a combination of Mogadishu warlords’ effort to impede any government, foreign intervention, and the sheer incompetence of its leaders hindered what ever potential success it could have. It has become ineffective, and quite frankly short of any agreement with the Courts, it will die right there in Baydhabo. Reason: one can’t govern his subjects by foreign troops. Simple.

Some excellent points that I agree with. It is transitional - but this is the first internationally recongized and supported gov't since ... a very long time. You will have to concede that is a huge differential with Carta - and if the TFG were effective in exerting its control - this debate would not be happening.

 

As to whether it will die - I think it has got a rejuvenation with all this 'al-Qaeda' talk and terrorist influence etc. The US will fall for the stuff all the time - even though - in this case, there appears to be some slight validity in it. As long as the bug-bear of 'al-Qaeda' is there - the US and others will support it and not let it fully die.

 

Politically uninitiated of us might ask what would Courts achieve. The answer is, again, simple. Courts would either sit down with this government and dilute its secular nature or sit it out and wait till it vanishes technically or politically. Because they are ideologically driven (Courts are) all the money in the world would not buy their support. Hence the only way out of this impasse is to negotiate with clear understanding of each other. But if the General Duke’s understanding of the Courts mimics that of the old man, we are indeed in trouble. For Courts are no clannish in nature and theirs transcend tribal boundaries as they are defined. One needs to wise up and understand his foes.

As noted - any waiting for the TFG to die may take for a very, very long time. Money may not buy the ICU's support but it can buy resistance against it. And the ICU needs stabilitly to consolidate its power and spread its influence.

 

As to the clannish nature etc. I still think that is up in the air. Whatever it is negotiations and comprise is needed.

 

Ethiopia has interest in Somalia and it would pursue it relentlessly--you are correct on that accord. But has Ethiopia helped TFG or hindered it? Can TFG, even if it wants to, really seek peace without Ethiopia, and ultimately reverse our political misfortunes?

I think image wise - it has hindered it. The TFG has a credibility problem for sure. As to funding and military support - I think it may have helped it - although that is yet to be determined since the TFG has shown little ability to exert its influence. I think Somalia needs peace with Ethiopia as whole regardless of who's in power - Somalia needs to be rebuilt before we tackle our longstanding issues with Wthiopia.

 

I am leaning toward the notion that says that TFG is beholden to Ethiopia that it will ultimately perish in its hands.

It is in both TFG and Ethipia's interest to keep the TFG alive. If that means Ethiopia needs to step back - they will. But now - the game has gotten much bigger than Ethiopia and TFG. Talk of 'Al-Qaeda' has entered the fray - and the REALLY big boyz are flexing their muscle. Thus making the situation that much more volatile.

[Centurion]

from the political whirlwind in Somalia, there is no clear entity which has my complete support. Although at the moment i'm leaning slightly towards the ICU.

 

The reason for that is the refreshing and significant changes it has wrought in the cemetary that was Mogadishu.

 

Although i recognise the populist sentiment wave it rides on, i have to say, being a patrioc Somali, i am endeared to their 'jihad'.

A jihad, although popular, a diplomatic flaw on their part.

 

The TFG, on the other hand, have nothing to incline me to support them in the least. In fact, i agree with Xiin, that they are weak, and weakening, and might dissolve in the hands of their main ally, Ethiopia.

 

It worries me no end, as to why the TFG called upon the support of the Ethiopians in the first place. And i do not know, who will be taking advantage of who, in this 'evil' relationship, although my money is on the established government of Ethiopia.

 

The TFG, also has been responsible of a number of political flaws. One of the largest being the perpetual cry for foreign (more precisely from IGAD) military support. Surely, they can see this is a major error on their part, did they think they'd gain the support of even one true Somali, in this way?

The TFG is the one who needs to compromise. And it can do so by first of all annuling this 'marriage' with Ethipia (Yes, i do think it is a pre-requisite for dialogue), and ceasing this constant cry for military help.

Yes, i do realise these are drastic measures, but drastic times call for drastic measure, as they say.

 

The ICU, needs to disperse its amassed forces which are currently flanking Baydhabo, and at most leave a token force.

 

Then talks can be initiated...in Xamar ( i can feel pro-TFG's flinching away from their computer-screens). All that is needed is to call open the 'honour' of the ICU to ensure complete security. I know many of you would say that the tainted honour of the ICU is but a meager compensation for the hides of the TFG. But i genuinely believe the ICU will want to desperately ensure no mishaps occur.

 

I honestly believe dialogue in Xamar, will have particular significance.

 

 

These are the first of many compromisies (on both sides) i think neccesary, to prevent Somalia spiralling into further chaos.

[Fiqikhayre]

Adeer Xiin, the old man is committed to a peaceful solution to our problems but the question is 'Does the same go to the desperados'?

 

No is the answer, as the real sheikhs have been sidelined by malicious fake religious zealots, that thinks, they have the key to a peaceful Somalia.

 

The key they have, the famous key of Aweys and Indhacadde is to leave Somalia in a limbo state, because they don't want any peace in Somalia and you damn well know it.

 

Dowladdiid will always be dowladdidd, yesterday it was anarchism and today as a last resort its religion. The popular uprising has been hijacked by the immoral expansionist from Guriceel, with the help of their spinmasters such as Yusuf Garaad Cumar Aweys!

 

You're totally misleading the 'gallery' in here as I said in my earlier post, that the government is too slow and off the pace for my likening. If I was head of the TFI with the international support I got and the mandate from millions of Somalis, I would crash those power-hungary desperados in a second!

 

Yes Hail to the chief Sheikh Fiqqikhayyre!

 

Awey's will never run out of people like you, the vibe that is comming from your side, you give the impression of being someone, who probably was with Aweys in his earlier failed 'expeditions' to Puntland and Gedo!

 

It's the same Aweys we welcomed to our peaceful regions in the North-East, that not only bit the hand that fed him, but the one who captured our religious leaders, politicians, intellectuals and issims in broad daylight, therefore betraying the trust of the people, who made him one of the highest officials amongst the sheikhs that controlled Bosaso!

 

He wanted to kill Mohammed Abshir, Abdullahi Yusuf and all the other leading influential leaders in that region of ours, only god saved them and after that an intervention by the good Sheikh Abdulqadir Gacmey from Garoowe!

 

Sheikh Gacmey told him, that he's going to 'far' and hence he was defeated and he ran away, killing thousands of young boys, whilst himself avoiding going to battle and escaping to the 'mountain-side'!

 

It's the same guy, who at the 'height' of the civil-war, asked relgious figures from gedo region to hand in their weapons and when asked 'To whom', he replied hand all your weapons to the General Aydid! They refused and told him, to simply 'vanish' as they would not do that!

 

Crime after crime did this guy committ and next he went to Gedo to 'spread islaam' and 'wage jihaad' on Ethiopia, his instincts were simply to capture Gedo for his Aydid in 96/97 as he wasn't able to capture it himself, that's why he wanted to finish off the people of Gedo!

 

After the death of Aydid, he worked hard to build alliances amongst the war-lords and others, who they have relations with in terms of blood and degaan, hence the establishment of the JVA!

 

After the good government of Abdiqaasim, the control of his 'clan' increased and more and more were coming down from Guriceel! Today his 'clan' is in Kismayo (charcoal-trade), Afgooye, Marka, Baraawe in the lower and upper jubba and in so many other places of the futile south!

 

You claim to be from Waamo, have you ever seen someone from Guriceel or its clan residing there or in Afgooye or in lower Shabelle the answer is 'no' you haven't!

 

Aweys wants power. You say give talks a chance and negotiations but I believe its a waste of time! They will not come to an census with Ethiopia, so they're looking for ways to join the government!

 

So the old man has to stand up and fight! No need for catious behaviour here, I'm pushing for a decisive victory or a crashing defeat inshallaah!

 

P.S. I know you Xiin to be very confused in things religion concern for I remember you saying 'that shiite's are muslim', which they're not! Remember the words of Ibnu Taymiyyah 'Who ever beliefs, that the raafids are not reduntant muslims, has self disbelieved!

 

So next time come up with something more origional! You cannot battle me nor reason with me as I have 'stepped up' my game and soon I will reach a point, where you'll be hiding under the carpet! So better don't start arguments with me, because otherwise I will not hold back and reveal all the history and evils, that group of yours are committing in the name of Islaam!

 

I have been very inactive but once I start, there will be no finish inshallaah and all will be revealed! The same I'd like for the old man.

 

Come to your senses and 'hold back' because certainly I will not! Facts after damning facts will be published and soon the light will illuminate the shady and criminal business of the desperados!

 

I wish you a nice day!

 

Yours sincerely, Sheikh Fiqqikhayyre known as Abul Islaam al-Eyli!

[xiinfaniin]

^^A peculiar mixture of theatric and rhetoric! You sound unstable adeer and you spoke like someone who have certain knowledge about my history and me . You are trivializing things beyond recognition, and your attempt to reduce our argument to Aweys vs. Yusuf is quite simplistic.

 

Still your zeal to send TFG’s army to a final battle so they can achieve a victory that could drive history is noted. All the ingredients of success however are lacking to realistically attain the goals you listed above.

 

PS. You are taking a big leap yaa Aw Yusuf. You are still in the clannish trenches of this debate and your effort to jump to a theological discussion, though admittedly ambitious, is quite feeble.

[Fiqikhayre]

Xiinow, I will set you a challenge before I expose the simplicity of your arguments. I'm not someone pretentious nor do I distort facts.

 

Please would you in your capacity tell me, why do you support the war courts?

 

You'll most likely come up with the usual stuff we already heard from you like they're calling for sharia law to be implemented (we all know that's not the case)! They brought peace to the ruined captial of Somalia. Or they chased out the warlords.

 

In my opinion what the wirepullers behind the courts are doing is fraud in the sense, that they can easily bring on board people like you, who don't see the wider picture, what say you!

 

Enough now I'll let you answer inshallaah and in your own words, brief and precise to why you support the war courts! Real arguments remember.

 

Jizaakillaah in advance.

 

Abul Islaam Al-Eyli.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Adeer , first enough with the swagger --you may be better at waxing lyrics but not as good at articulating your point. It now seems.

 

I support Mogadishu Courts because they have achieved what many failed to attain---they defeated those wicked warlords. It’s quite needless to mention all the good that defeat entailed. And if that was not enough for Xiin they actually went and kicked warlord Barre out of Kismayo. That was more than enough for me, I tell you!

 

Long live for the Courts , I say. What say you yaa Aw Yusuf?

[Kashafa]

^ LOL@Aw Yusuf, walee ninka magac ba helay. . I hear Aw Yusuf and I visualise oday oo bakoorad wato oo fadhi-ku-dhirir ka sheekeeynaayo.

[Fiqikhayre]

Sarcascim and coffs aside, Xiin I perfectly knew, where your support for the courts came from and I believe it is an open secret, however let me thank you for your courage and bravery in telling the truth!

 

Xiinow we would agree, that the best way forward in any discusssion is to speak the truth and say what is in ones heart rather than to disguise them or not addressing them directly or properly!

 

Secondly I did not intend to place you on the spotlight by asking you the question I did, but I wanted to 'know', where your support for the clan courts originated from in your 'own words' and once again I appreciate the way you handled and answered my question.

 

Before I indulge and set my sights on the situation in Kismaayo and addressing 'your' delight in its 'emancipation' and liberation, allow for me please to express to why I support this government and on the reality on the situation in Somalia!

 

I hope you will bear with me inshallaah.

 

1.The reality of the conflict in Somlia.

 

Somalia as you're well aware off has been in a state of 'statelessness' for the last sixteen years now. I will now reveal to why the country could not agree to form a viable and stable government that would take them out of the lawlessness, that it had been prevailed in for nearly the last two decades now!

 

The underlying reason, to why we cannot agree to form a state and government lies in the reality of the contest of two rivaling clans competing each other on who is going to rule the country. It's a struggle that will and cannot finish until one side strategically, politically, economically and most importantly miliatarily outmuscle its political rival! That's the reality of our trauma and statelessness!

 

2. The emergence of the 'Islamic courts union' in Mogadishu and what hastened it was the proposal for Jubbaland?

 

In another thread I talked about how the wirepullers of the Islamic courts union diverted what was a legitimate uprising and revolution by the citizens of Mogadishu into an explotative advantage to utilise for their 'wicked' plans in capturing the whole of Somalia on a 'lie'!

 

What trickered and hastened the revolution were a number of key factors but arguably the biggest factor was the proposal for the creation of Jubbaland.

 

In that proposal three of the former republics region of Somalia would be combined into one, mainly Gedo, Lower Jubba and Upper Jubba regions of southern Somalia!

 

This proposal meant a real danger for one clan in its future explotation of the country as one of the challenging clans for power, that would if the proposal went ahead, seriously damage it.

 

The reason being it would favour one of the two clans in the future, to certainly not 'own' Somalia but most importantly politically dominate the political landscape of Somalia, because the region would be mostly made up of one clan, a certain D clan!

 

That clan, who would ultimately control not only the three strategic and futile regions meantioned above but also Sool, Sanaag, Cayn, Nugaal, Bari, parts of Mudug, western and norther Galgudud and parts of Bakool region such as Ceelbarde, Yeed and Rabdhuure, who have sufficient members of the Afmadoow and Puntland affliated tribes resident there. Originally the plan was to include Bakool and Bay, but that has been changed.

 

Bay and Bakool would become their own region, but they would be landlocked regions and in future if wanted, could side with any of the two competing clans for political domination of the somali political landscape! Lower Shabelle on the other hand would become a 'neutral and natural' breadbasket for Somalia, with the majority of its citizens linked to Bay and Bakool and other affiliated clans!

 

That would leave Mogadishu the strategic capital and Benadir region, which Mogadishu is its capital to be dominated by the H clan, however the city would also be multi-racial and cultural as the capital of Somalia, leaving the upper Shabelle and parts of southern and eastern Galgudud and southern Mudug in the control of the H clan. However that would not have been an intresting prospect for that clan, because it's a small region and not as interesting and futile as the regions further south! Galkacyo a strategic regional centre would be most definately if not united domiated by Puntland affiliated clans. Leaving the northern regions of Togdheer minus Buuhoodle, which one part of it is the mentioned Cayn in Puntland region together with Waqooyi-Galbeed region to one clan and finally Awdal, which is strategically positioned at Djiboutis southern border for another clan and plus one other dominant clan from Djibouti!

 

That would not be a good prospect or something to look forward to for the H-clan, that worked so hard to restore their pride and complete with the D clan over who controls Somalia, that's why the Jubbaland project had to be shut down because they feared its legacy!

 

3. Reason to why do I support the TFG

 

I support the TFG for many regions but to be absolute frank with you Xiin and the rest of the gallery in here, I don't support it because as some in here oppose it, because they believe if Abdullahi Yusuf succeeds in his quest to return Somalia to normality that a certain clan would dominate the affairs of the country and that they would be disadvantaged, that's the fear of Somalis, that's why they will not trust an opposing clan President!

 

But me 'no' absolutely and categorically, I don't expect 'free-hands outs' from the government because the government is for all Somalis, but what I want is the 'legacy'!

 

Certainly the H-Clan is not willing to sacrifice on its future and that of its children, that's why they wanted to 'begrudge' Abdullahi Yusuf's presidential status!

 

It would be their worst nightmare if Abdullahi Yusuf could actually succeed in bringing Somalia back from its ashes because they themselves have failed multiple times!

 

You as me well know, that my clan has been at the forefront of many political and historical achievements and that would be another mile stone and a historic golden legacy to achieve the impossible by being the 'ones' that actually returned Somalia as a state, after so many years in chaos and failure.

 

That would be most certainly be a distabilising and demoralising defeat for the H-clan, that they will find difficult to shake off for many years to come and recover from, because having had so many opportunies themselves to bring Somalia out of its shadows, which they were in first place responsible for ruining the country by not being able to agree on a leadership, that for now a certain man from Puntland to come in and turn everything around, would surely be something that would horrify them to the core, because that in itself says something about that clan and it's self-esteem and moral.

 

4. The situation in Kismaayo.

 

You of all the people Xiin is well aware of the bad things that happened during when Mr. Hiiraale captured the city back in 1999 and it brings horrible memories to some, as his militias went in brutual, kiling and inflicting injuries to many innocent civilians.

 

But what you have to know and realise is the reason, why the people of that city were marginalised and hated so much by Barre's folk.

 

The ultimate underlying reason, you can find in the many posts of a certain Mr. Hornafrique, who said, that Barre Hiiraale delivered his clan from certain humiliation by removing the inflicted humiliation of the clan by your clan Xiin.

 

Yes, Barre was a saviour for his clan because to understand the contempt and resintment (hate is too much of a word) of Horn towards your clan!

 

We all remember how they were one day told to pack all their belongings and leave the city in a short given time frame of less than half a day. They were kicked out to certain uncertainty.

 

The clan was really suffering and they were at danger of not extinction but certain downfall as you know and me, that for sometime, they totally vanished from the political scene of Somalia just like that!

 

Gedo which was starving (drought and femine), land-locked and fuming with internal hostilities and warfare wasn't either an option. Although most of the people left and migrated across the border to Mandhera, Kenya or to their brethren in Ethiopia on the other hand their brethren in Galgudud didn't fare much better.

 

However they were lifted up by Hiiraale, who thought to himself on how to return his clan, that has vanished from the political scene, and decided the only way out of misery was to befriend the old enemy and nemesis namely their political rivals and blood relations from Galguduud, to establish a political block in which they could compete for domination because back in galgudud there was no hope, they descended down to Kismayo hand in hand singing and cheering and seven years ago with the help of the former enemy (now other Mogadishu factions in the colition too), they captured the town by storm and what happened is history.

 

Certainly they were very angry men. The residents of Galgudud moved to the urban centre's of Galkacyo and some went to Garoowe and Bosaso to either do buisness or live there as things were better over there than where they called home or clan territory!

 

In Puntland as fellow D-clan members, they had it easy and did relative good business in comparison or had a higher living standard, some of them would travel back and forth to Cabduwaaq and beyond to Mogadishu as now they were unofficial members of the H-clan, in Europe they call it associated countries!

 

Doing also relatively good in across the border in Kenya and Ethiopia and ofcourse Kismaayo, which brought them back from certain extinction and back on the political map again!

 

The H-clan members had now a port in where they could export their charcoal from as Mogadishu ports and airports were closed down by the warlords!

 

But now that's all forgiven and Hiiraale realised the situation on the ground and together with Abdullahi Yusuf they decided to make these regions exclusively D-clan, that's what you're missing Xiinow, it's about legacy building and future for your children!

 

When time permits inshallaah, you children will question you, what you did to help that legacy in which you will answer simply 'nothing', and that you were one of those that were 'tricked' by the courts!

 

But I will be able inshallaah to say that I supported the TFG with speach and talk and writings, lobbying, day and night defending it on the SOL's political fora of the forum!

 

Conclusion

 

Xiinow, that is in a nutshell the underlying reason on what is going on in Somalia and I admitted all those things holding my hand to my heart, that it's the absolute truth and not something forced out of me.

 

I'm aware of the controversial nature of my writings but I will and cannot 'lie', I believe truth is the virtue to success and sometimes we have to tackle the difficult stuff that some of us don't want to indulge in but as always Fiqqikhayyre does not lie nor fabricate but he tells nothing but the truth!

 

Yours Sincerely,

 

Sheikh Fiqqikhayyre known as Abul Islaam al Kutubi aala Eyli!

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

And if that was not enough for Xiin

they actually went and kicked warlord Barre out of Kismayo. That was more than enough for me, I tell you!

 

Long live for the Courts

, I say. What say you yaa Aw Yusuf? [/QB]

Diinay xaal qaado! Raganimow xaal qaado!

[Pi]

HornAfrique, I think xiin always mention the defeat of Barre to get you all worked up. Waa imtixaan.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by Pi:

HornAfrique, I think xiin always mention the defeat of Barre to get you all worked up. Waa imtixaan.

Aniguna meesha laga duraan aqaan.

[Paragon]

lol knowledge of siyaasadda xasaasiga or the politics of sensitivity horn