AU force regains upper hand in Mogadishu:

[General Duke]

AU force regains upper hand in Mogadishu

 

Middle EAST Online

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

By Herve Bar - MOGADISHU

 

Briefly disorganised by the debacle of government troops, the African Union force in Mogadishu has regained the upper hand after containing an Islamist offensive, but remains under pressure.

 

At one point, according to one foreign observer, only the Ugandan AU troops stood their ground to fight off the Al Qaeda-inspired Shebab fighters, as government forces fled.

 

On August 23, the Shebab insurgent group announced the launch of a fresh operation to "to eliminate the invading Christians and their apostate government."

 

For around 10 days, waves of Shebab fighters attacked African Union (AMISOM) and government positions to cries of "Allahu akbar" (God is greatest).

 

Most of the fighting was concentrated in the seaside capital's northeastern neighbourhoods.

 

 

The insurgents, who include several seasoned foreign jihadis, advanced on the presidential palace and parliament.

 

At one point, they threatened Maka al-Mukarama, a strategic thoroughfare linking the harbour to the airport and AMISOM's main lifeline.

 

"For 48 hours, there was a very alarming period of swaying," said a foreign Mogadishu-based official. "It was a complete fiasco for the TFG (transitional federal government)".

 

Soldiers, militiamen and to a lesser degree allied forces from the moderate Sufi outfit -- all deployed along different segments of the frontline -- "abandoned most of their positions," the official said.

 

Under Shebab pressure, some vacated their positions without a fight, while others retreated frantically when they ran out of ammunition.

 

"At one point, only the Ugandans (the main contingent in AMISOM) were fighting," the foreign observer said.

 

"Fighting has escalated since August 24. This was characterised by TFG forces withdrawing from their positions," admitted Colonel Mickael Ondoga, who commands the Ugandan force.

 

"When they ran, they exposed us and made our positions more vulnerable, we had to move to take tactical advantage," he added.

 

Ondoga explained that AMISOM deployed tanks and other armoured vehicles -- the kind of equipment the Shebab don't have -- and punched back.

 

"The TFG withdrew from a dozen positions... Most of these positions have been reoccupied (by AMISOM) and now the government forces have started coming back to these positions," he said.

 

After a week-long lull in the fighting, it emerged clearly that the Shebab had failed to reach their military objectives of capturing the presidential compound and cutting the crucial Maka al-Mukarama supply line.

 

Shebab have nevertheless moved closer, and are now just a couple of blocks from the avenue, presenting a serious threat to this crucial supply line that cuts right through the middle of the city centre, and forcing AMISOM to set up two new positions there.

 

"This offensive was a failure," AMISOM spokesman Ba-Hoku Barigye claimed.

 

"The Shebab have suffered heavy casualities, hospitals around Mogadishu, Kismayo and Baidoa are full of injured," he added.

 

"The enemy was not able to chase us from a single of our positions and on the contrary, we have advanced in the city," he said.

 

Another Mogadishu-based expert, who asked to remain anonymous, argued that the insurgent's thwarted offensive could prompt some Shebab leaders to advocate a new strategy: they favour spectacular operations against high-value targets rather than territorial warfare.

 

"It was a bloodbath... The meagre results they derived from this offensive is causing some tension within the Shebab military leadership," the analyst said.

 

The TFG forces' disorderly retreat last month however confirmed that President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's government was on its last legs, unlikely to breed a force able to take over security duties from AMISOM.

 

"We are riding a dead horse," was the uncompromising assessment made by one AMISOM's political officials.

 

Soure: Middle East Online

[General Duke]

What was the result of the "great" offensive by Al Shabaab?

 

What did they gain as of yet, they are unable to even stop Sharif from flaying out to his many hotels...

[NASSIR]

"At one point, only the Ugandans (the main contingent in AMISOM) were fighting," the foreign observer said. Very good report. ..

 

"When they ran, they exposed us and made our positions more vulnerable, we had to move to take tactical advantage," he added.

ahaha, TFG troops plus ASWJ run with their tails tucked btw their legs. It was Ugandan troops alone who held up their ground and inflicted more damage on the crazed Shabaabs.

[General Duke]

Thus whats the point of Sharif Ahmed and his group?

[Jacaylbaro]

Give him 8 more months and he will be gone just like the other ones .........

 

 

Wondering who is next ...

[General Duke]

There needs to be a radical change soon, the Al Kebaab ****** have failed and so have the clan mad men like Sharif Hotel.

[Jacaylbaro]

The failure is a shared responsibility and you are part of it ..............

 

Not sure about a radical change that soon .....

[NASSIR]

Originally posted by Jacaylbaro:

Give him 8 more months and he will be gone just like the other ones .........

 

 

Wondering who is next ...

What if he stays...remember there won't be a new reconciliation conference because there're only two main players, al-Shabaab and TFG.

"Puntland" is affiliated with or is part of TFG's political process and "Somaliland" maintains a different political outlook and it has won international respect for its growing democracy, thus receiving 40% of Somalia's aid development.

 

So it's TFG + AU vs. Al-Shabaab. I read there will be a process and strategy development. Next government (PM) has to do a lot of reshuffling. And the total number of MPs needs to be slashed in half or less..

[General Duke]

JB the failure indeed is shared considering the leadership of Al Shabaab today are from NW Somalia and your clan in particular. Considering that top ministers and a major share of the Parliment are from NW Somalia we all our in it together. As for Punt land it will always play a role in Somali affairs, more so with the coming years as its model based on realistic and rational politics have proven to be a success, you only have to look at the development of its cities and economy over the past few years. Its time to give this approach were everyone builds his own backyard without fear of being part of Somalia a chance.

[Amistad]

Steps in Guerrilla War

 

1. Objective

2. Civil Support

3. Build Up

4. Attrition

5. Transition = Insurgency to Conventional

6. Govt Take Over

 

Al Kebab is currently stuck somewhere between

3 & 4 and has a very long way to go to reach 5 if they plan on taking and holding Mogadishu.

 

AU is stuck between a rock and a hard place, mainly because of TFG action and/or in-action. I speak with some of their ranking folks on occasion and it is almost impossible to put any long term strategy face on anything.

[General Duke]

^^^Indeed the fact that Sharif Ahmed has failed can no longer ignored and we shall see in the coming months how the game unfolds.

 

The people of Somalia need an alternative to the Mogadishu sink or swimm play.

 

Its time to focus on the states and on what works.

 

Puntland works and is the only viable model for Somalia today...

[Amistad]

Well the fact remains that nobody is giving up on the TFG just yet. They have another year and it looks like no end to the flow of blood, as US & UN Gen Sec Moon, Ambassadors Rice & Mahiga call on more support for the TFG & AU in the way of funding and more troops.

 

I often wonder what contingency operations these entities have in place if and when Mog falls. Perhaps the new capitol will be in Puntland, who knows?

[General Duke]

Originally posted by Amistad:

Well the fact remains that nobody is giving up on the TFG just yet.

Yeah in this difficult times of recession here at home the US government is dumbing money into this project without any success.

 

There out to be some accountability, not a single road has been built and not a single district taken back from Al Shabaab. In fact TFG/Sharif has lost more ground than gained including most of the capital.

 

Fact remains there needs to be a new strategy.

[Amistad]

Totally agree with that. And not just the US, but the combined international donors should form some sort of consortium and set a strategy because right now its all just short term, throw some money here and there and see what happens..... sickening really.

 

Putting this all the shoulders of an ill equipped, underfunded and inexperienced AMISOM is certainly not the answer.

 

The US in its efforts tend to group the entire region as a whole and strategize from there. Ive spoken with upper echelon DoS Plans and Policy folks and these people uphold Obamas policies of not fixing, not rebuilding, not stabilizing and certainly not nation building, quote unquote.

[Jacaylbaro]

Originally posted by NASSIR:

quote:Originally posted by Jacaylbaro:

Give him 8 more months and he will be gone just like the other ones .........

 

 

Wondering who is next ...

What if he stays...remember there won't be a new reconciliation conference because there're only two main players, al-Shabaab and TFG.

"Puntland" is affiliated with or is part of TFG's political process and "Somaliland" maintains a different political outlook and it has won international respect for its growing democracy, thus receiving 40% of Somalia's aid development.

 

So it's TFG + AU vs. Al-Shabaab. I read there will be a process and strategy development. Next government (PM) has to do a lot of reshuffling. And the total number of MPs needs to be slashed in half or less..

There is no way he can stay in power after his term ,,, i mean there is no reason to do so. There must some sort of changing power and that should be through some sort of conference.

 

Even if the main players are the tfg and shabaab but still the clan is an issue ,, and bringing more groups to the tfg side is another option ,, remember Ahlu Sunnah ?