SOO MAAL Posted May 12, 2005 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ( KSA ) : What will happen after King Fahad ? In the name of God the compationate the mercifull. Saudi Arabia: What Will Happen After King Fahd? Summary Long-ailing Saudi monarch King Fahd bin Abdel-Aziz al Saud appears to be on his deathbed; Kuwait was rife with rumors May 3 that he had actually died. When he does pass away, his death will have, to varying degrees, an unsettling impact on domestic Saudi politics and international politics. King Fahd's death at a time when the world perceives the kingdom as facing a threat from al Qaeda further complicates global geopolitics, even if the internal strife might not lead to actual instability regarding governance. Analysis Saudi monarch King Fahd bin Abdel-Aziz al Saud, who has been ill since the mid-1990s, probably is close to death May 3. Sources close to the king's medical team have said he is very ill. Even though King Fahd's half brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, has effectively ruled the kingdom for almost a decade now, the royal family likely is rushing to manage the transition of power. Under both external pressure from the United States and internal pressure from militant and nonmilitant opponents at home, the royal family probably is sorting out the details of the shakeup of the Saudi system that will follow in the wake of King Fahd's death. While the internal situation might not pose significant problems -- at least at this stage -- the Saudis will go out of their way to show that all is well, given the situation with oil prices and the global jihadist phenomenon that is intrinsically tied to the kingdom. The Saudis have brought al Qaeda activity under control with the continued elimination of key militant figures and cells since June 2004. Despite these significant victories against militants, Riyadh is far from undoing the global perception that it faces a major jihadist insurgency at home. Considering the drubbing the jihadists recently received at the hands of Saudi security forces, they apparently are not in any shape to take advantage of the transition phase when the king dies. Given that the jihadist phenomenon is far from over in the kingdom, al Qaeda could try to launch an attack. But Saudi security forces would be put on alert status to deal with any potential trouble. What further complicates this scenario is that the man currently at the helm in the kingdom's monarchical system, Abdullah, is half brother to the king and the remaining key princes at the apex of the political system. Abdullah also heads the elite Saudi National Guard and is considered a rival to the king's immediate younger full brother, Prince Sultan. Sultan not only heads the Ministry of Defense and Aviation but also is second only to the ailing king in wielding power within the Sudeiri clan of al Saud. Sultan is expected to assume the title of crown prince after King Fahd passes away and Abdullah becomes king. The current crown prince established a Majlis al-Aila (Family Council) in 2002 to consolidate his position within the apex leadership by broadening his support base. The Sudeiris likely are concerned that Abdullah's ascension to throne and subsequent consolidation of power could weaken the Sudeiris -- Sultan and his two younger brothers, Interior Minister Prince Nayef and Riyadh Governor Prince Salman -- and thus possibly end their clan's hegemony within al Saud. The influential al-Faisal branch (descendants of the late King Faisal bin Abdel-Aziz al Saud, who was assassinated in 1975) would like a shot at the throne as well. Faisal's sons Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and former intelligence chief and current Saudi Ambassador to the United Kingdom Prince Turki al-Faisal enjoy influence and respect. Abdullah will become king, but the question is who becomes crown prince. If it is not a Sudeiri then the whole political balance will shift inside the royal family and thus inside the kingdom. Exacerbating matters is that in the not-too-distant future, the current ruling princes' sons will be up for the top positions. The aforementioned princes are all in their 70s and could die in quick succession after King Fahd. Though King Fahd's death might not lead to immediate infighting, the situation could deteriorate once the old guard is no longer in command -- when the descendants of the various sons of the dynasty's founder Abdel-Aziz bin Abdel-Rehman al Saud make their bid for power. Thanks Ducaale Hadal-Wanaaje II Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
