Post-election analysis.

[NGONGE]

A very good summary, Baashi. But, like you said, there are more twists and turns to come before we’ve heard the end of this. The man is faced with a gigantic mountain and going by history alone, he’s likely to try to crush that mountain than climb it!

 

Even the world backing that you speak about is an uncertain one. This is Africa, saaxib. The world talks a good game but when the first bullet is fired, they usually stand on the sides and wait for an outcome.

 

The questions you pose about Somaliland are all true. However, did you expect them to say anything other than what they’ve already said? Like you said, this is politics, they realise the predicament the new president is in and they know that he’s not sure of his own presidency yet. To crumble immediately and announce their intentions to “sit down†and negotiate with him will give him extra ammunition to use against his foes. Somaliland are the last people to do him any favours, saaxib. They know that nobody wants war and are therefore at liberty to dismiss these new developments. Should the new Somali president make the first move and mention the word “warâ€, they can take the moral high ground and remind all and sundry of all that they were saying all along about this war-loving so and so...

 

The “fun†is just about to start and only those willing to take the serious gambles and bet their entire political careers on the outcome are going to succeed. The new president of Somalia has more sense than gamble it all away at this current time while the administration of Somaliland has every reason to do so (their whole being is at stake). I suspect that the new president of Somalia will limit himself to comments and announcements about Somaliland but do nothing in the meantime. He’ll try to consolidate his position in Somalia proper before he moves on to tackle the issue of Somaliland. If he does not, I suspect that he will not be president for long; the vultures on his “side†will contrive a tactic to run away with the spoils.

 

Lets hope, regardless of the outcome, that no hasty bullets are fired.

[Baashi]

HA, I stand corrected sxb. Some voted for him.

 

Ngonge, I thought the line "We will welcome the new government if they are willing to sit with us as equal partners" would be far more effective than a complete dismissal. What sort of politicians are there. You would think that they have given some thought on the all likely outcomes from this conference and have a contingency (diplomatic - that is) plan in place. Of course it is too early to tell what is what. But I have a hunch that when the honeymoon is over and dust settles, things will become more clearer. I don't think Abdullahi will be the first to fire to that direction because he have bigger fish on his plate. "Dividi et impera" game is more effective for him now than all out war. Siilaanyo is on the phone, the rumors have it, as an insult to Riyaale and co. Ethiopia is the key if you ask me. It is the only country that have spade ace up in their sleeve. Somaliland is the only leverage Ethiopia has on Abdullahi. I'll leave it there. Just a thought.

 

I was very surprised the fact that Djibouti campaigned against Abdiqasim in favor of Abdullahi. Cumar Gelle worked very hard to bring Arabs on board to support Abdullahi bid for the presidency. Italy lost face with Abdullahi by courting with Mogadishu clans. It has been reported that Italy now is putting its bet on Gen. Galaal by organizing a considerable and organized force in Mogadishu so that it will have some sort of leverage on Abdullahi's PM selection. Boys! it is a hardball in a whole new ball game. The arithmetic has changed considerably.

 

In the past I have been against the strongman of Puntland. I don't like his governing style. He is very stubborn man. He is a staunch supporter of extreme secularism. He has a dictatorial tendency. His record in SSDF is not very "distinguished" if I can borrow a word from Cheney. His handling of Puntland political crisis speaks volumes of his understanding of power and its use. The so-called federal constitution is a sham riddled of all sort of anti-Islamic clauses. Despite all of this, we need peace first. We can fix the system latter.

[A New Born]

After 14 years of political depression came few hours of emotional outbrust "Yes WE are the President" then came the hursh reality for A/yusuf and his SOL cheer leaders, namely they´re asking themseves the Question " what can we Do now?".

and the answer is NOTHING, NOTHING, NOTHING.

 

A/yousuf is spending his days n nights making frequent vissits to MIGHTY Mogadishu guyz hotel rooms asking for their HELP to make it WORK in the first place. This is a dissappointment for some of the cheer leaders dying for revenge

 

Mogadishu guyz (the Nolanders) decide weather to declare the 14th somali reconciliation confrence DEAD or successful( does the "SHOE SIZE" of uncle Yalaxow ring a bell?)

 

Now . b4 the analysis and the wishful thinking take us into the deep waters of illussion, let us TRY to answer this pragmatic Question.

 

Now WHY are Mogadishu ppl so powerful?

 

1: They´re needed for EVERY thing to make somalia stand up again.

 

2: They´re needed to make the long awaited(wished) militry threat to Somaliland.

 

3: They and THEY only Can redesign the MAP.

 

Hargeisa have a dilemma in their hands

Now somebody should reverse that and eat their words.

 

Dream accordingly na,mean

[Baashi]

^Of course he will!

 

Let's see. Is Mogadishu important? very very much! Can "they" become an obstacle to the peace that's everyone is wishing to materialize? Absolutely! I can only guess why.

 

Now, this is what I've heard through the grape vine. Beydhabo will be the seat of the new government. I don't know what to make of it except that Mogadishu is not safe for the time being and the fact that Abdullahi knows for sure that “Maxkamadaha†are very excited in anticipation of the bloody showcase with him.

 

Azahari, a very influential fella who has the Abdullahi’s ear was quoted saying that Mogadishu is 10 year project and going in now is a recipe for failure. According to my sources the plan is to wait Italy’s effort to neutralize the situation. Abdullahi’s is itching to take on Marka’s Indhacade first, a political foe, and score point or two with foreign friends. That will draw most of the “maxkamadaha†and anyone who hates him into Shabelleda Hoose’s war theater. Gen. Galla will have time to consolidate his power in the city. Barre Hiiraale and co. are talking about the Jubadda’s Hoose governorship and other important matter. Abdullahi iss playing a clan card there. Very interesting stuff wallahi.

[Khayr]

Salaamz,

 

If I am a Smart Politician, I would:

 

-Establish contracts with international firms to rebuild the nation-A rebuilt nation

 

-Leaseland and allow Oil firms to come and set up Oil refineries---Money into Somalia

 

-Establish Secular schools and Universities

(People will love that b/c you are establishing

'Education' (what kind of education won't be questioned ofcourse )

 

-Advocate for Women's rights and more women in

parliament and schools (You will have the allegiance of the female population and the western world in general too which could bring recognition to your gov., universities being recognized by the international community etc. and more international contracts to bring money into the economy)

 

***If you provide Food, Shelter, 'Education' and Jobs for the people, as a LEADER, you can get away with Murder,Adultery or any other crime and still be loved!

 

Clans will love you because the people will put aside Clanism when they start to live 'COMFORTABLE' and the Men have 'JOBS'

 

A/Yusuf didn't win this by an accident, he had outside support that wanted Somalia to have a stable 'government' that can be Controlled! :eek:

 

Fi Amanillah

[Sophist]

Machadka Horumarinta Dhaqaalaha iyo Siyaada Soomaliya.

----

 

Waxaa Aqoonyahanada Soomaaliyeed ee kukala nool daafaha Caalamka la lasocsiinayaa, kadib markii Jamhuuriyadii Sedexaad ey noo dhalatey, in aqoonyahanada Soomaaliyeed xil meel madhaafaan ah ey kasaaran tahay hogaankeeda.

 

Waxa haatan la yagleeyey, machadka kor kuxusan, kaasoo loogu talo galay in uu mambac u noqdo Soomalida aqoonyankeeda. Shaqada ugu horeysa ee uu machadku ku howlan yahay waxa weeye, in uusoo ururiyo, miida aqooneed ee Soomalida indheer garadkeedu kufadhiyaan.

 

Waxaan hada aqbaleynaa sadex mawduuc in wax laga soo qoro, qofkii qoraalkiisuna guuleysto waxaa uu kuguuleysanayaa bilad gunno ah (a prize. Sadexda mawduuc waxa ey kala yihiin:

 

1. How would the Federal System would work.

2. In Diplomatic terms (practicality taken into account) how can this government would deal with the question of Hargeisa; "Somaliland".

3. If Mogadishu currently cannot host this new republic, which of these cities would you thing would be best to be a temp capital: Baydhabo, Kismaayo or Garowe and why?

 

Fadlan, qoraalkaagu yaanu kayaraan 1000 kun erey, yaanu kabadan 1500 kun iyo shan boqol. English iyo Somaliba waad ku soo qori kartaa.

 

Fadlan, usoo *** maqaalkaaga emailka Siihaya gudoonka machadkan Shirwa@gmail.com

 

Waad mahadsan tihiin.

 

ISEP

[STOIC]

This morning i was walking down the student lounge at my school and happen to see this post that said "identity crisis in contemporary Somalia".It is lecture that will be given by a somali professor.I guess it wil be a good idea if i ask him, Sophist question of how federalism and the issue of Somaliland will be resolved.let's hope things will work out for Somalia this time.You are more than wellcome to attend if you live the state of Georgia.

[BN]

Baashi,

As always, I enjoy your analysis. Concerning the Islamic courts, I was under the impression they were in a wait-and-see position. They have become very a powerful player in the city with a dedicated following; is there no way to include them? And Italy's role in Mogadishu with Galaal is also very interesting. Perhaps you could expand on that and the Marka scenario.

 

A timeline would also be useful...

[Baashi]

Bari_nomad, sxb I gotta admit my analysis are based on rumors, innuendos, second-hand quotes, and media reporting. It is too early to sort it all out but one thing is clear. Caqiidka got the support of Ethiopia and its allies for a reason. Knowing his political philosophy, one can speculate what the fate of “Maxkamadahaâ€, wherever they are, would be. In my humble opinion, the two cannot coexist politically. Add that the personal animosity between the leading figures of “Maxkamadaha†and Inna Yey. It all adds up!

 

I would really be surprised if he chooses to go Mogadishu at this time without making significant concessions to Abdiqasim/Gallaal (He has millions of dollars at his disposal and the loyalty of the most organised clan in the south). He will be at the mercy of one of the Mogadishu lords whereas in Beydhaba he will have his tribal militia from nearby provinces disguised as Somali army plus Ethiopians few dozens miles away. What we know! Will see how it comes out. I was totally wrong on my predictions about the election and I could be wrong again.

[BN]

Fair enough; but it is a good way to pass the time no less. What say your rumors of when we can expact the naming of a prime minister?

 

Originally posted by Baashi:

Knowing his political philosophy, one can speculate what the fate of “Maxkamadahaâ€, wherever they are, would be. In my humble opinion, the two cannot coexist politically. Add that the personal animosity between the leading figures of “Maxkamadaha†and Inna Yey.

I'm not so certain. He is talking a lot of reconcialition and peaceful dialogue among Somalis and different factions since the election. He also has been meeting with warlords, and seems to have made some head-way with AbdiQasin. Here are a few notable quotes from today:

 

""Nina xantii ma mooga, waana ogahay in leygu xanto in aan nin dagaal ahay, waxaanse cadeynayaa in wixii maanta ka dambeeya aan ahay nin nabad".

 

"A man of peace ready to see the Somali people forgive each other. Forgive me first and forgive each other."

 

And of Somaliland he said,"Markii dowlad la dhiso walaalahayga isku magacaaba Somaliland waxa aan ku soo dareynaa wada-hadalka, waana aan la xaajooneynaa, Waan la damqaneynaa oo waan ognahey wixii ku dhacey. Waana xaaraan in walalahayaga ku nool Somaliland mar dambe xabad loola tago".

 

Let us hope it is more then just talk.