Post-election analysis.

[Baashi]

Inna Yusuf has won the election because of the delegates from Somaliland, RRA, SPM, Aiedeed Jr., Puntland, and Qanyare voted for him. JVA (Geddo/Galgaduud) and collection of personalities such as Musse Yalaxow, Abdiqasim, etc put their eggs in the Addow’s basket. Their combined votes totaled mere 79 votes. The election was not a popular vote. Because of the actuality on the ground, the election was based on “Electoral College†model, where representatives of the clans cast votes for their clans. All Somali clans were represented in the parliament.

 

One can recall the inception of both Puntland and Somaliland administrations where the leaders of the clans that inhabit these areas sat together to start new chapter despite the disputes and problems at the time. Only this time the meeting was held outside Somalia for obvious reasons and the fairness of the process was assured by international and regional observers. UN and other international bodies made sure that politicians sign a pledge of cooperation where they are accountable to the International norms. They’ve all given their pledge. What that means is anyone who sabotages the disarmament process will face severe consequences from the rest of the world in the form of sanctions. Ethiopia, the source of arms, vowed to cooperate and take part in the disarmament process. All this before the election took place! - just shows how determined they were.

 

Taking all this into account, one would think that this time we will succeed to revive the Somali state. Maybe! Consider this, Abdiqasim, Caato, and Yalaxow turned down Mr. Kibaki’s invitation extended to all presidential contenders. The move was designed to illicit more commitment from these important men. In Mogadishu, pre-planned festivities in support of the new president-elect were cancelled. That’s very telling, to say the least!

 

On the other hand, self-declared republic of Somaliland issued a statement that sums up the new relationship between the new Somali government and parts of the former territory of British Somaliland. They don’t recognize the new government. The translation: we won’t sit down with Abdullahi Yusuf. Why? Five days ago, he has given speech to MPs in a campaign dinner attended by Bubaa. In that speech, he said that if he wins the election his administration would approach Somaliland and condole them. Under no circumstance will his administration allow secession, he said in Somali.

 

Hargeisa have a dilemma in their hands. The whole world is in favor of stable horn of Africa. The Ethiopians, and EU which Britain is part of are on board. They don’t control all former British territory. The new development in Nairobi means a UN seat, more money, and international acceptance to Somalia. Their whole peace plan rested on the proposition that once that Somalia gets all-inclusive government they will sit down and negotiate with that government. Now they find themselves in a position to say that they don’t recognize this government headed by Yusuf. There is no room to maneuver but to defy and lose the diplomatic battle.

 

In balance, Abdullahi Yusuf is a very polarizing figure that often resorts to military solution to solve political problems. He is also an unwavering stubborn like no other politician in Somalia. He has given a hint as how is he going to confront the militia who has no interest to give up their guns. He will force them, he said. That means a new round of violence. However, this time the violence is a means to noble end: peace. All governments reserve the right to use violence in order to ensure the rule of law. He clearly has the mandate to do so. I don’t know if he has the luxury of buying the guns from the militia. In the end though, his success depends on the goodwill of personalities who have no interest in seeing him succeed.

 

Let’s see and wait. We ain’t seen nothing yet.

[checkmate]

Baashi garaad, i just wanted to inform you that the delegates from somaliland had 28 seats and and out of that 28 votes ONLY one vote went to a/llaahi yusuf, and that really shows how they didn't want him elected as a president.

 

walaahi i have ta say right "ON" on the stuff that you wrote, and insha allaah ONLy time will tell sxb

 

asxantu

[OG_Girl]

Is even truth Somalilanders were part of the election? or you counting Sool and Sanaag people as Somalilanders??

 

Salam

[LANDER]

Originally posted by Baashi:

On the other hand, self-declared republic of Somaliland issued a statement that sums up the new relationship of Somalia and parts of the former territory of British Somaliland. They don’t recognize the new government. The translation: we won’t sit down with Abdullahi Yusuf. Why? Five days ago, he has given speech to MPs in a campaign dinner attended by Bubaa. In that speech, he said that if he wins the election his administration would approach Somaliland and condole them. Under no circumstance will his administration allow secession, he said in Somali.

 

Hargeisa have a dilemma in their hands. The whole world is in favor of stable horn of Africa. The Ethiopians, and EU which Britain is part of are on board. They don’t control all former British territory. The new development in Nairobi means a UN seat, more money, and international acceptance to Somalia. Their whole peace plan rested on the proposition that once that Somalia gets all-inclusive government they will sit down and negotiate with that government. Now they are in position to say that they don’t recognize this government headed by Yusuf. There is no room to maneuver but to defy and lose the diplomatic battle.

 

In balance, Abdullahi Yusuf is a very polarizing figure that often resorts to military solution to solve political problems. He is also an unwavering stubborn like no other politician in Somalia. He has given a hint as how is he going to confront the militia who has no interest to give up their guns. He will force them, he said. That means a new round of violence. However, this time the violence is a means to noble ends: peace. All governments reserve the right to use violence in order to ensure the rule of law. He clearly has the mandate to do so. I don’t know if he has the luxury of buying guns from the militia. In the end though, his success is dependent on the goodwill of personalities who have no interest in seeing him succeed.

 

Let’s see and wait. We ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

I will edit later....

your a joker sxb, as I previously stated you people talk a good game but rarely take any concrete action. If you are to beat the drums of war, might as well beat them as LOUD and CLEAR as possible. Over night we are the militia and suddenly Somalia has an Army?Or perhaps you give the puntland militia too much credit? Or is this fake bravor stemming from the fact that A/yusuf thinks he has the backing of all of Somalia? Maybe you think the international community will drop weapons at the feet of Abdulahi Yusuf and tell him to go to war with Somaliland? Since your are so quick to jump the gun, let’s analyze the situation at the present moment. The puntland militia will be at the frontlines of any conflict with Somaliland, but I know for a fact that Somaliland has superior logistics and artillery capability but more importantly they will be armed with the knowledge that they fight for their freedom, land and the survival of their people. What if the man who lost every major war he fought, runs straight into a conflict with a fearsome enemy and looks back to see that the warlords in Mogadishu are not behind him? What do you predict would be the outcome of such an encounter? The odds have yet to tip in your favor and already you are saber rattling? To make a long story short we are more than ready and able for WAR so If your gonna make threats please skip the formalities. sidaa ragaa uu hadal niiyoo

[checkmate]

lander, brother with all due respect, how did you insinuate what baashi wrote was the drum beatings of war, and to be honest with i think your really quick on jumping for the gun before you had put thought to this situation walaalkiis.

 

Ok,let analyze this so called "war" that we have come to think the utlimate solution to fixing our problems....

 

What will be the nature of this war?

unity as we hope..right..NOW 'how is it that negotiations and talks can't unite somalia BUT war will

 

Who will be affected by it?

NOT somalilanders (ofcourse)

NOT puntlanders (ofcourse)

BUT the entire somalians " who have little hope in our leaders "

 

brother lander, today is the best day for "HOPE and OPTIMISM" this is the time for "UNITY" if there was ever one....

 

United we stand, divided we fall brah

 

ilaahayoow noo gargaar yaa rab

 

asxantu

[Xoogsade]

Having a mandate alone won't make Abdullahi a winner. People will put a label on any war he wages regardless of what he and the world calls it. Unless others fight alongside him to put a unified face on his campaign, the result is a loss of everything for him. The demon who destroyed what we had before still larks in the dark and looms larger than ever. For this to work, and for any government headed by Abdullahi yusuf to take root, As suggested, Those who disagree with him hold the key and should swallow their pride for the interest of all.

 

Stronger men lost before him and he will lose if he wages a war. If I was an adviser to him, war is not Option.

[General Duke]

Stronger men lost before him and he will lose if he wages a war. If I was an adviser to him, war is not Option.

 

Well said, but I doubt there will be any type of war. Bashi's analysis only leads to conflict as a way to disarm those that cannot be disarmed by any other means.

[Gabbal]

JVA (Geddo/Galgaduud) and collection of personalities such as Musse Yalaxow, Abdiqasim, etc put their eggs in the Addow’s basket.

Gedonet is reporting rer Gedo's votes went to Abdulahi Yusuf.

 

Anyway I don't think who voted for him and who didn't matters, what matters is that now we need to start looking forward.

[Baashi]

Lander,

Calm down sxb, you and I have no influence on the ground. We don’t command armies nor we have the power to make peace or war. That responsibility rests on Riyaale, Mohamed Hashi, and Ina Yusuf. We can fistfight in loggerhead but it will only be in the virtual theater. Now, I call it as I see it. Nowhere in that post, have I implied a desire for war. You are too emotional and bit jumpy Lander. My goodness what has gotten in you man!

 

Now, let’s see. It seems to me that ina Yey gained prestige and political portfolio coming out from this conference. He will now have a voice in the halls of international community. He will have more money (in the form of aid) to dispense, more money to invest in Somali army, and more handouts to leverage his political foes. All things considered, at minimum he will be in a position of enhanced influence to make deals with his foes.

 

If you have anything to say, I expect you to comment on how on blue earth will Somaliland attain secession without going to war with a man who welcomes war and who brags about being a soldier, a warrior, the first one has who fired the first shot in the Somali civil war. Analysis is what we need friend not I’m bigger, I’ll ran over you as if your screen character has any muscle behind your cheap rhetoric. Come on dude!

 

Somaliland has a problem on its hands. In politics, diplomacy is a big part of the game. As things stand now, Hargiesa’a response is that they don’t recognize Somalia. But the whole world wants them to not only recognize the new government but to sit and negotiate with none other than Abdullahi Yusuf. In the diplomatic circles there is something called of pressure and arm-twisting. Can they bear the diplomatic pressure? Abdullahi is saying we will sit with our brothers without any pre-condition and we will not sacrifice the territorial integrity of the nation to appease unreasonable secessionists. The burden is on the Somaliland. They now find themselves in a position of even no having a control over a part of the territory they claim to be under their administration. Abdullahi is not giving them without a fight. Do they have to resort to war? What will happen with the stability they have showcased so long as a bait of recognition? What is their contingency plan politically speaking?

 

 

OG_girl,

Sool, Eastern Sanaag, and Buuhoodle are part of Puntland. That is the understanding other delegates in that conference have.

 

Shoobaro,

My sources said otherwise sxb. All and I mean all of them voted for Abdullahi. I was surprised of how things turned out. I mean who would have thought that Abdiqasim would be embarrassed that way. The dude left the hall with grin on his face and no one has seen him since. How about Yalaxow and Aideed Jr.! Particularly Yalaxow whose foolish clannish analogy of shoes sizes made headlines - if you recall, it was the talk of the town in the Somali coffee shops all over the world. Gone is the sense of entitlement for the presidency some clans had hoped. Not only that Ina Yey has the discretion of picking the PM, he will also have an tremendous influence of who makes the cut in the cabinet. What a disappointment! I can see his foes lining up for the post each hoping he be picked instead of other Mogadishu warlord.

 

SW,

Simple analysis written on screen leads to war! that’s news to me.

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Originally posted by HornAfrique:

Gedo's votes went to Abdulahi Yusuf.

True. Except just few votes including Hiiraale and Warsame who weren't there for personal reasons.

[General Duke]

Bashi, good summery of the situation facing Somaliland.

 

As long as the new government builds up their base, the harder it will be for Riiyale and co.

 

It seems all this noise is for the domestic audiance, Riiyaale is sacerd that, Buuba and the rest will get prominanet position even PM and make his situation dire. Thus the call to arms and the fake threats.

 

Lander what is your opinion bro, what can Riiyaale and co do to survive?

[Sincere]

Freedom was not acquired in order to be entrusted to a wild animal.

Nor was it obtained so as a hyena could take it to its den and cavern.

All are equally entitled to it but that is the wisdom that is eluding you.

 

The late Khalif S.Mohamud.

The poet of resistance.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by Libaax-Sankataabte:

True. Except just few votes including Hiiraale and Warsame who weren't there for personal reasons.

That took me by surprise :eek: , especially considering recent political activities.

 

I'm starting to think their is more to this man then meets the eye , but he could be the one to bring the Somali state back? Who knows, but Allah.

 

I just hope he is given the support to do it from all sides (which he seems to be getting even from his enemies as of yesterday), and I hope he doesn't try any funny business, as I am most definitely sure we will be back to square one. :rolleyes:

[Legend of Zu]

Originally posted by HornAfrique:

quote:Originally posted by Libaax-Sankataabte:

True. Except just few votes including Hiiraale and Warsame who weren't there for personal reasons.

That took me by surprise :eek: , especially considering recent political activities.

 

I'm starting to think their is more to this man then meets the eye

, but he could be the one to bring the Somali state back? Who knows, but Allah.

 

I just hope he is given the support to do it from all sides (which he seems to be getting even from his enemies as of yesterday), and I hope he doesn't try any funny business, as I am most definitely sure we will be back to square one. :rolleyes:

Dont be surprised sxb..I know a Man who made all that possible (of course with the help of good campiagners)!!!...one of the shrewdest politicians I have eva seen!!!..and Time will come when he will emerge from behind the scenes!!!!

 

Cheers

[OG_Girl]

Zu,My I add when he came to UAE he got a lot of support and promises from Arab shiekhs , Specially Dubai sheikhs. I am pretty sure a lot of them I mean these from PM fell for that support from UAE and Kuwait but Kuwait was little smart and support was under the table .

 

There is a lot of things ordinarry Somali can't imagine happened there .

 

Salam