Where are the HEAVYWEIGHTS?

[N.O.R.F]

Reading numerous nonesense threads posted by our resident lightweights is getting tiring. Where are the heavyweights?

 

Lets get your opinions boys and girls.

 

Question 1:

 

Have the events of the past few weeks made it impossible for the government to bring about a peaceful resolution to the Somalia situation?

[Liqaye]

Norf let me attempt a take on this one.

 

I believe it is impossible for the government to bring about a peaceful resolution to the current situation.

Some of the reasons for that belief are based on the weaknesses of the government and the declared aims of the Al-shabaab.

 

The government has No to minuscule legitimacy, in the sense that it fails in all the following criteria to meet the accepted definitions of a legitimate government.

German sociologist Max Weber proposed three sources of political legitimacy and authority: charismatic, traditional, and rational/legal. Weber argues that charismatic is based and dependent on the charisma of the leader, he uses the example of tribes and religious leaders.

Sheikh Sharif although considered a religious leader, does not have and has never been accused of possessing the Charisma required of Charismatic legitimacy, No one has been swayed to his side on the basis of his arguments, nor has any one been dissuaded in taking up arms due to the personal/public impact of this man [Even Siyad Indha cadde].

 

Traditional legitimacy and authority is based on the fact that certain political structures have existed for so long that its authority is accepted by the populace.

This would be within the Somali context the Guurti or Elders of the Somali Clans, unfortunately in the TFG constitution envisaged in the mbagathi process there was no place in it for the Guurti or any other conflict resolution mechanism involving the esteemed elder statesmen of each clan. Indeed even there had been such a mechanism there would not be much use for it at the present time, this conflict seeks legitimacy beyond the strictures of clan elders especially on the side of the Al-shabaab.

 

Rational/Legal is based on the idea that legitimacy and authority derives itself from standard operating procedures that are based on principles and laws expressed via a constitution or collection of documents.

Where there is indeed a constitution or collection of documents that are present within the context of the TFG, the malleability of the operating procedures as well as the trashing of constitutional principles several times over the course of the last few years, the poverty as well as dearth of experience or morality of the human capital [parliament members, government functionaries, technocrats] involved in the application of the constitution and the standard operating procedures, means that no authority can be claimed by the TFG on this points

 

Indeed the present TFG from the tenure of Abdullahi Yusuf to the current situation of Sheikh Sharif has been characterized by the following:

 

• loss of physical control of its territory, or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force therein,

• erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions,

• an inability to provide reasonable public services, and

• An inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community.

The platform on which the Sheikh Sharif was elected in Djibouti can be boiled down to two main points, that Ethiopian troops withdraw from Somalia proper and that he would negotiate an end to violence with moderates with in the Somali Islamic movement and isolate the rump of the hardliners and dead enders.

This has failed to materialize; Sheikh Sharif has failed to keep his distance from the Ethiopians, and has played into their hands in two fronts, by needing their support as well as by being further de-legitimized by the actions of Ethiopia in Hiiraan. [Which came as a huge shock, to the entourage of Sheikh Sharif as to other TFG supporters].

Although having gained the support of the majority of the Ulema in his requests for negotiations and cease fires he has not had any leeway within the armed movement.

In the end they believe he is a collaborationist and left them in their time of need, fundamentally that he is one or not is besides the point that he appears so is all that matters.

Consequently for the TFG whose entreaties for peace and negotiation has fallen on deaf ears, armed destruction of the Al-shabaab is the only rational and logical decision to take, the other which is self legislation out of existence is an option I cannot perceive them taking.

The al-shabaab on the other hand have stated clearly, and repeatedly that they will not negotiate a peaceful resolution to this conflict, for let us be frank here all there self proclaimed demands and aims have been fulfilled by the votes with in parliament, it would be foolish to ascribe to them goals other than those they have set for themselves.

Al-shabaab beyond their Islamic based beliefs have a belief in the fundamental sociology of the state that is in direct opposition to what Somalis expect from the TFG.

Franz Oppenheimer who was a German sociologist who published on the sociology of the state described it apply:

Unlike Locke and others, Oppenheimer rejected the idea of the "social contract" and contributed to the "conquest theory" of the State:

 

" The State, completely in its genesis, essentially and almost completely during the first stages of its existence, is a social institution, forced by a victorious group of men on a defeated group, with the sole purpose of regulating the dominion of the victorious group over the vanquished, and securing itself against revolt from within and attacks from abroad. Teleological, this dominion had no other purpose than the establishment of dominion of the vanquished by the victors. "

 

This is why Kashafa produces maps and timelines to legitimize his arguments, which he then over reaches to ascribe to Islamic notions. [but their others who are better qualified to make those arguments]

For the Shabaab the physical extermination of the TFG and their allies is the only way its own existence can be maintained and its vision can be implemented.

One with out the other would be a failure in their eyes.

Legitimacy for them comes from the edicts of others in the Muslim world and the above scenario coming to fruition.

 

A case of the rock against an unstoppable force, with Somalis caught right dab in the middle. There is no peaceful solution except the ending of the existence in reality of one or the other .

[Liqaye]

Even the P.M recognizes this:

 

Ra’iisul wasaare Cumar C/rashiid oo sheegay in aysan rajjo ka qabin wadahadal ay la galaan kooxaha mucaaradka.

 

Shabelle: MUQDISHO

 

Ra’iiusl wasaaraha dowladda KMG Soomaaliya Cumar C/rashiid Cali Sharma’arke ayaa waxaa uu sheegay in uusan rajjo ka qabin wadahadalo ay xiligaani la galaan Mucaaradka hubaysan ee ka soo horjeeda xili maalmihii dambe xukuumadiisa ay wajahaysay weerarao kaga imaanaya xoogaga Hubaysan.

 

 

 

Cumar C/rashiid Cali Ra’iisul wasaraha dowladda KMG Soomaaliya oo horay isagu u sheegay markii la soo magacaabay in uu ku wajihi doono kooxaha ka soo horjeeda wadahadal ayaa markii ugu horeeysay isagoo u waramayay Wakaaladda Wararka ee Reuters waxaa uu sheegay in aysan jirin rajjo laga qabo in ay la hadlaan kooxaha ka soo horjeeda.

 

 

 

“U Malayn Maayo in ay wataan ajande siyaasadeed waxaana rumaysanahay in ay ka buuxaan dagaaliyahaniin dibadda ka yimid kuwaasi oo qalalaase ka wada gudaha wadanka Soomaaliya”ayuu yiri Cumar C/Rashid Cali.

 

 

 

Sharma’arke waxaa uu yiri majirto fursad lagula fariisan karo kooxahaasi oo wahadal lagula gali karo isagoo intaasi ku daray in aysan aheeyn dad lala hadli karo sida uu sheegay.

 

 

 

“Habka kaliya ee lagula dhaqmi karo waxaa ay tahay in lala dagaalamo taasoo ah waxa ay fahmayaan waxaana u diyaarsanayahay in aan cirib tirno”ayuu intaasi raaciyay Ra’iisul wasaare Sharma’arke.

 

 

 

Cumar C/rashiid Cali Ra’iisul wasaraha dowladda KMG Soomaaliya waxaa uu intaasi ku daray in ciidamada dowladiisu ay sii daba joogaan sida uu hadalka u dhigay 3-boqol oo shisheeye ah kuwaasi oo Ururka Al Shabaab ka garab dagaalamaya waxaana uu tilmamay wali in ay jiraan qaar ku sugan banaanka Magaalada Muqdisho.

 

 

 

Waxaa uu yiri Ururka Al Shabaab iyo dagaaliyahanadooda la socda marna hab dowladeed mafahmi karaan,waxaana dhici karta in magaalo ay tagaan oo ay qabsadaan hadana ay ka tagaan marka ay bur buriyaan kadibna dadk ay argagixiyaan sida u hadalka u dhigay laakiin dadkaani malahan ayuu yiri awood ay ku maalulaan iyo wax ay ku fahmi karaan muuqaal dowladeed.

 

 

 

Waxaan is weydiinayaa buu yiri sida dagaalka ay u sii wadi karaan dad aan laheeyn u jeedo siyaasadeed kuwaasi oo ku guuldaraystay sheegashadodii aheeyd in ay diin u dagaalamayaan sida uu sheegay.

 

 

 

 

 

“kooxahaasi waxaa ay ku tunteen dhinac kasta oo diinta Islaamka hadana waxaa ay sheeganayaan in ay yihiin Islaamiyiin”ayuu yiri Cumar C/rashiid.

 

 

 

Ra’iisul wasaare Sharma’arke waxaa uu ku eedeeyay Madaxweynaha dalka Eritrea in uu hub u qeybinayo kooxaha muqaawamada waxaana uu sheegay in arintaasi ay tahay arinta ugu weyn ee dhibaatada ku keeni karta Soomaaliya.

 

 

 

Dowladda Eritrea ayaa iyada arintaasi horay isaga fogaysay,waxaana arimahaani ay ku soo beegmayaan iyadoo Urur goboleedka IGAD kulan ay ku yeesheen magaalada Addis Ababa ay ugu baaqeen beesha caalamka in cuna qabateyn deg deg ah la saaro dowladda wadanka Eritrea.

 

 

 

Xigasho:Reuters

 

 

 

Aqriso oo la soco Shabelle.net Saacad Walba si aad u hesho wararkii ugu dambeeyay ee Soomaaliya.

[N.O.R.F]

Liqaye, thanks. One shall ponder.

[Liqaye]

An article articulating why the Sharif should resign and the TFG should sign it self out of existence.

 

 

Good Bye to Proxy TFG President Ahmedou Ould Abdallah’s

Discordant Contract (UN - trusteeship): The hour of reckoning has just arrived

By Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh

May 18, 2009

 

Since the overthrow of the strongman, General Bare, Mogadishu residents have seen peace only for the last six months of 2006, which was wiped out by a cheerless Christmas present from the US delivered by Mr. Zenawi of Ethiopia-a naked massive ground invasion ushering a new chapter in Somalia.

 

The Mogadishu residents and the Somalis in general refer that very brief but peaceful period as a golden period. The high esteem held by the Somalis for the non-political Islam was uplifted further by the gallantry shown by the cadres during the war of liberation of Somalia from the invading forces of Ethiopia. Through their guidance, Somalis managed to topple off the hated TFG that invited the enemy of the nation to tear down Somalia and annihilate its people at will and without mercy. Once more, another heartbreaking new year’s (2009) gift from America in the form of someone the West touted as a moderate Muslim, Sh. Sharif and his lifeless TFG, was dumped among the Somalis with the sole aim of engendering a civil war among the Islamists without exposing their soldiers to danger – precisely which is what started this week.

 

This week’s rumble of the renowned guns, with a bit of twist this time - Islamists pursuing each other in the heart of Mogadishu - signals the predestined nose diving of president Sharif’s over marketed rosy era and the inauguration of a vague and uncertain outlook for the capital city and by extrapolation Somalia in general . The human and material casualties caused by the current running battles between the TFG and the Islamists-Al- Shabab and Hisbi Islam- is just the opening chapter for more disasters to follow and an exasperation of the existing humanitarian disasters, as this war is about the righting of the wrongs and the political mistakes committed by the UN at Djibouti Summit in January this year – reinstalling the same TFG but this time with a president haunted by his past betrayals and misadventures which makes him a liability and a rallying point for the Islamists resentment.

 

“I need urgent deployment of massive foreign forces lead by Ethiopia as Aweys and Al-Shabab are carrying out an attempted coup d'état to topple my legitimate government using force,”

President of TFG - Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah

 

This negative propaganda war – extremists toppling a legitimate government - unleashed by the international community is extremely misleading, unwise and biased. The Islamists parties come across more legitimate and native political forces to many Somalis given their record of liberating the country from the predatory Imbagati TFG and their allies that committed the worst state- sponsored genocide in the history of Somalia – 19,000 civilians killed, creation of 1.5 million IDPS and the flattening of the capital city. This war, which started in December 2006, came in to being as a reaction against foreign dictates and intervention and has yet to reach its one objective - total liberation of Somalia from foreign agents meddling in the politics of Somalia with the view of giving the Somali people the right to choose their own genuine leadership after nearly two decades of failure after failure of imported puppet governments.

The point of contention is not about religion per se as there is no shortage of this commodity, but it is about the leadership of the country which has been traditionally changing hands through violence based on tribe and interested groups, although devoid of meaning full political agenda at all times except most certainly this time – Al - Shabab and Hisbi- Islam are on a national and non – tribal platform - despite their fiery brand of Islam they stand for a good chance to win the race as their opposition, TFG, is powered by the failed crude tribal and clan system of 4.5 which is seen as a plot to make Somalia ungovernable.

 

International solution to the power struggle: - Deployment of credible force to contain Islamists is the consensus

 

The three AMISOM garrisons are the only places in Mogadishu where the so called TFG government can sleep in relative peace since its inception, as opposed to the opposition Islamists who control with ease virtually the bulk of the Southern and central Somalia including the capital city. When one closely gazes the scenery and the trend of the recent confrontation between the opposing forces, one easily find out that the TFG lost the most strategic positions of the city to the Islamists. It took the Islamists no time to show who is in control of Mogadishu and who the rightful group to run the country are – Al-Shabab and allied Islamists. The confrontation was purely between the organized Islamist opposition fighters and tribal Militia allied conveniently to the TFG as the TFG has no robust security forces. When a situation, looking certain death in the face, develops the tribal rug tag militia will always look for the quickest and safest exit – run away or turn coats.

 

The proxy president of Somalia, Mr. Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, is obsessed in misinterpreting the situation on the ground as he usually does by accusing the opposition forces of toppling a legitimate government. Nonetheless, the opposition forces are nationalists who are fighting for what is their inalienable right – to run the affairs of their own country in their own way and to flesh out the foreign sponsored TFG and its AMISOM mercenaries. The Islamist cadres are aware of the appalling intention of the international community and are committed to capture or disable the three remaining foreign fortresses- Airport, Sea port and the presidential palace - before the UN campaign of organising a deplorable peace spoiler force leaves the drawing room.

 

Mr. Ahmedou, the proxy Somalia president, is out of touch with reality and most probably lives in a bubble of his own or may be driven to insanity by his extreme view of keeping Somalia under UN trusteeship in perpetuity. "These extremists know that they do not have the support of the Somali people and that is why they have to bring in foreign fighters who are not connected to the situation in Somalia in any way," Ould-Abdallah said in a statement. How on earth can he justify that the 5,000 strong foreign force of AMISOM troops equipped to the teeth are considered to have connection to the situation in Somalia? Despite his obviously expatriate assertions, the Islamists are enjoying the grass root support of their masses including a large segment of the Somali Diaspora who are labeled as foreigner fighters by the colonial officer as quoted above.

 

His defense Minister , TFG security commissioner, is no better than his president as he is spreading lies all over the place and only one quote is enough to expose how irrelevant he is too.

"The Shebab's attack was defeated. The situation is under control," the African Union peace and security commissioner Ramtane Lamamra said at the same meeting in Addis Ababa.

 

Conclusion: The Sharif days numbered

 

It is apparent that the war which has just started is the making of President Sharif who foolishly betrayed his comrades in arms in the misplaced assumption that the international community’s blessing could be translated into automatic local recognition - the guy lacks political experience and maturity and is not even aware of the old adage “that a political mistake committed can only be paid in blood.”

 

The hastily concocted Djibouti Summit was meant to be power-sharing between the TFG and the Islamists and as we know the Islamists choose to stay away because the TFG was defeated and was in no fit state to partake any meaning full talks. The Sharif was the only person from the Islamists who attended the so called meeting and thus the summit was a one man show that is seen as sell out by his own constituents.

To safe Mogadishu from further destruction, the Sharif and his TFG should leave the political scene for the Islamists. The Islamists will definitely bring sustainable peace and stability at an affordable price as they demonstrated in the large areas they control. Somalia needs peace and security and its people are willing to temporarily trade off some of their liberties for the taste of this after sought product(peace) which the Islamists have the monopoly to deliver.

 

In contrast to Sharif, the Islamists are committed to earn the local recognition and relegated international recognition from the west at the bottom of their priorities. International recognition, the kiss of death in contemporary Somalia, comes with a lot of strings that are untenable and detrimental to the political independence, sovereignty and self rule of Somalia.

 

 

Mr. Abdikarim Haji Abdi Buh

Email:abdikarimbuh@y ahoo.com

WardheerNews Contributor

[Sherban Shabeel]

On the contrary, I think the Shariif government still has a reasonable chance to stay in power and continue rebuilding the country, just like before the coup.

 

Shabaab/Xizbul-Islam have lost momentum. They should have taken over in the first few days if they were really to win. We are now very close to a stalemate. It's hard to believe this stalemate will turn into a low-flame guerilla campaign (such as the one during the Ethiopian occupation), because I believe the Somali people are fundamentally opposed to it. Shabaab can't win in open war (as we've seen), and should they resort to Algerian GIA style attacks on civilians, they will face a popular uprising.

 

Furthermore, even though the rebels have gained territory, their image has been dealt a cruel blow. To any objective observer, Shariif appears to be the peaceful president who got attacked by power-hungry factions who rejected any form of diplomacy, and Shabaab are the power-hungry who rejected any form of diplomacy. And who failed miserably when they tried to take power.

 

People always look at the consequences of war, and the consequences of Shabaab's failed coup attempt are scores of dead civilians and who knows how many displaced families. Therefore, public opinion is turning against the instigators.

 

It's just like when Israel bombed Gaza a few months ago. Although Israel still controls the territory, its image was severely damaged by the campaign. 7amas came out as dignified resistance fighters, whereas Israel came out as a child killer.

 

This is what's happening in Somalia. Shariif comes out as a man trying to make peace with everyone, whereas Shabaab comes out as a bloodthirsty entity.

 

Therefore, when it comes to that awesome power which is popular support, Shariif is winning the war, no matter how desperate the situation looks on the ground.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Correct read of the situation.