'The Law of Karma in Kismayo' Revisited

[Paragon]

Well, just few days ago, Mr. Xiinfaniin's topic "The Law of Karma in Kismaayo", he brought to our attention the looming tension over Kismaayo. Here are his exact words:

 

Xiin: What happens when disgruntled poor militiamen with no logistical support and without adequate armament decide to rule a strategic city, a prestigious one at that, like Kismayo? The plan is ridiculously simple: go to the other side, and without slightest strategy or a workable political plan, enter a military and political deal to share the city’s rule and milk it for eternity! But as we all know that kind of thinking is very primitive and can hardly be sustained. Flawed is its logical foundation: the interests of the hastily formed alliance would last forever. Warlord Barre is finding out the hard way not only of how broken his original premise was but also how the law of Karma (figuratively of course) works. And boy, look how the chickens have come home to roost! One reaps what he sows, as the clichés goes, and the increase of political variables in the Kismayo equation shouldn’t surprise warlord Barre’s political entourage! The story of Kismayo is quite fascinating one, or at least I find it so. I also find Indhacadde’s argument quite valid: we brought Barre to the thrown he now holds and thusly he should value our input. That’s not asking much, you might think, given the truthfulness of the said argument. What’s not adding up, in my opinion, is Barre’s vacillation. You stay with your current coalition and enjoy momentarily the rule of that coastal city. Which means you adhere to the conditions of the coalition’s original arrangement. Someone needs to whisper that deep in to Barre’s ears---if he has ears to hear (pardon the Christian phrase). Or else forget about Kismayo, compose a mournful eulogy of your perceived glory days in it, and peacefully sail to your fertile Gedo! This, as harsh as it may sound, is the literal meaning of the southern rule.

 

^That’s a logically sound analysis provided you agree with my premise that Indhacadde and co propelled Barre and his boys to rule Kismayo in the first place.

 

What about the Courts and their ambition for Kismayo? The thinking goes that Barre is the DM in the current TFG and has shrewdly maneuvered to hype his strategic significance to the TFG. The TFG seems to have bought that and wants to give what he wants--- basically legitimize his rule and give a façade of regional governance. That’s what Barre calls Jubaland! A noble idea, you might say, but a one that lacks all the ingredients of success. Now men, like Indhacadde and co, who invested both blood and treasure in holding this strategic city, see nothing in this venture. The joint Barre and old man's project for Kismayo, that is. Furthermore, the fact that Barre is the DM and the possibility of AU troops docking to Kismayo harbor gives a certain political urgency for the Courts to intervene and make sure Kismayo does not slip from their sphere of influence. That’s where Indhacadde comes in and becomes quite useful for the Courts perceived interest: Kismayo not falling in to Baidoba’s column.

 

We are living interesting times indeed. And if I were to hazard a guess, in the final analysis, Barre and Indhacadde will reach a deal and arrive a compromised solution that serves Courts interest. Barre will be reminded what he really is---a place holder, a smart one at that I must admit.

 

What you say, , minus HornAfrique that is !

Afterall, Kismayo didn't need a complicated compromise, it easily got captured by the UIC. Just how and what happened in Kismayo is indeed puzzling, in that no blood was spilt in Kismayo's Soil. I was extremely uneasy of what is to become of Kismaayo were there to be a battle between Bare Hiraale and the Courts. Alxamdullilaah, this is didn't happen. All credit goes to Barre Hiraale for recognizing the best option our of war.

 

Now that Barre Hiraale is out of the picture, there seem to be an issue with the residents of Kismayo. A day after the Courts took over the city, there has been violent demostrations and unrest caused by the residents. This unrest raises the question: can the Courts' rule of Kismayo be sustained? Will the presense of Turki not raise tensions between Kismayo residents of Af-madow, Gedo, or Puntland origin?

 

Also, where does this put the TFG in Baidoa? Even more importantly, what would Ethiopia do in the coming months and what happens to IGADSOM since their posts of entry (Libooyo-dhoobleey and Kismaayo) are impossible to access?

 

The UIC has over the last few days admitted having meeting with the US and that news has inturn infuriated the TFG's C/Yussuf. It seems the TFG's former name-calling of the UIC has seazed to work- even after the capture of Kismayo, the PM Ali Gheedi went on the rhetoric that the UIC is a spreading terror network- but all these cried of the TFG seem to be falling on the international community's deaf eyes. What next for the TFG, dessolution?

[xiinfaniin]

Ramadaan Kariim.

 

Thanks Paragon for bringing this one up! That Kismayo has fallen into Courts column without a fighting taking place is another fortuitous-win for the Court’s men. As for Barre leaving the scene without firing a shot, I think, it was just smart of him to have done that. He wouldn’t have stood a chance to defend his loot with his coalition broken and zealous army coming determined to root him out. As history has it now, he went down as another warlord who just lost and whose time has came to pass.

 

I think Courts could rule Kismayo better than its (Kismayo’s) former regime. But it requires from them to be at a level of understanding and to have a political shrewdness not seen before. For instance, they need to establish an admin of locals that can quickly garner the legitimacy to rule for which Courts so badly need. They also need to address the issue of their perceived clannish association by disarming Barre’s coalition remnants i.e. Seeraar, and Goobaale. Last, but not least, they need to get Court’s militias out of the City vicinity save from those who are responsible for security.

 

Once again Courts are rushing with success, as it were, where the TFG feared to tread.

[ElPunto]

^Strange that you would call the act of expanding territory and power without consolidating what you already have success. To me - it seems other descriptions are more apt. :rolleyes:

[xiinfaniin]

It depends where you are coming from yaa Point! If you believe that the Courts and their allies had to act to deprive FT from their potential military and logistical bases -- and along the way exact political alignment in Kismayo-- as I do, and then for them to capture Kismayo without resorting to a disastrous war constitutes a success in my books adeer. It’s all relative saaxiib isn’t it?

[ElPunto]

^Adeer, waadado(sp) who continously seek power and territory? - let's just say I have suspicions about them. It seems to me - at some point if they keep going like this - it will end in bloodshed when they inevitably face resistance. And then what is to be your argument?

[Allamagan]

Relieved and happy there were no blood were shed, however, the courts is under scrutiny in the weeks ahead. All involved (interesting) parties are carefully studying how the UCI to piece together the jigsaw of how the Kismayo's problem is solved and by who and also when the attention is now diverted to how the courts would deal with the last remainig warlord "Indhacade" (except Xaabsade who is currently hosting the TFG and out of their quick reach). Indhacade who as usual becomes pissed off whenever journalists (last one yesterday by Shabele radio)put to him the question about the region he and his clansmen illegely occupy. Now, strange enough Goobale & Seerar with their millitia now patrolling the city under the banner of maxaakimta and to disarm some section of the people! so we'll see!

 

The "infant" government located in Baidao will soon feel the heat when UIC try to move closer and closer to them and also to infiltrate their ranks and armies.

 

On the other hand, Barre is silent and didn't speak out since his departure from Kismayo, so him being found himself the TFG side of the fence and also is the current MD I dont think he will quit or give up that easly when looking back Sh. Goobaale on his shoes! w'yal se!

 

With that pace and hungry, the courts will soon run out of the public support! Meeshii orod lagu karo orod aa looga soodegtaa. They need to slow down and reflect the situation.

 

Ramadan Kareem!

am

[Paragon]

^^ThePoint, who said the blood of those who stand in opposition to what is good is sacred? If it means shedding blood to achieve what is best for the nation then so be it. I don't see the logic of frowning upon the wadaad's involvement in social and political matters. It is as if the term 'wadaad' was at first put in place to confine the 'wadaad' to as little as nill involvement in social affairs. That logic is no longer functional. The UIC forces must increase both power and territory for the good of all Somalis, ThePoint.

[General Duke]

Ramadan Kariim all.

 

No one is against the sacred faith that we all hold dear. One is against aggression and clan domination.

 

The courts so far have been aggressive and clan centric.

 

We wait and see..

[NASSIR]

Paragon, nothing has changed and no new territories brought under their rule. It is the same people and same territories. The difference is their unity from prior tribal fragmentations.

 

We had Aideed, Ali Mahdi, and Cisman Ato, replaced by Qanyare, Suudi, and Abdi Qaybdiid. They then were replaced by Aweis, Shariif and Indhaade.

 

Barre Hirale's allied forces are still in the city. The missing thing is that he was substituted with Hassan Turki and his tribesmen as a new ally.

 

Only forced replacements and substitutions dominate the southern politics, but the one thing that blossoms the picture is their ability to restore peace in in a lawless city. It shouldn't, therefore misguide us into thinking that they can continue consolidating their power to further regions.

[xiinfaniin]

Originally posted by ThePoint:

^Adeer, waadado(sp) who continously seek power and territory? - let's just say I have suspicions about them. It seems to me - at some point if they keep going like this - it will end in bloodshed when they inevitably face resistance. And then what is to be your argument?

You have every right to have suspicions about them. Their success today doesn’t, in any way, guarantee future successes either. All I was saying was the fact that Kismayo has fallen in the wadaado’s column the way it did was a military success. I also believe it could be translated into a political one as well.

 

But lets see if your gloomy predictions hold. I too have my own predictions--all-be-it positive ones.

[NGONGE]

The Courts seem to have the upper hand and the momentum at the moment. So long as they keep on taking over towns and cities without shedding any blood, no sane person can stand against them. So long as they show fairness in their treatment, no sane person can stand against them. So long as they have supporters in these towns and cities, no sane person can stand against them. May they go on and unite the whole of Somalia.

 

Pardon my emotional rant there. I don’t know what came over me! Actually, I might have told a lie there. I think I do. Lately, whenever I had discussions with friends from Somaliland and Punt land (who happened to be ‘wadado’) they all seemed to support the Courts! These are very proud nationalists (to their respective entities) and would always accuse me of all sorts of things when I’d criticise their setups. Yet, now, faced with a choice between being patriotic or being Islamic, they seem to have changed their tune and decided to follow the latter. I’ll already concede that the ones I met were in Europe and that those in Somalia might have a different outlook on things. However, I’m ready to wager (even though my beloved wadads might frown at the expression) that even those in Somalia are of the same mind. The Islamic Courts (regardless of the fact that they’re truly Islamic or not) have pulled a masterstroke here. They’ve forced every wadaad from Merca to Borama to rethink their beliefs and make a choice. Do you choose your ‘homeland’ and the ideas you’ve followed for years or do you follow your faith (ignoring the intricacies of that last question of course)?

 

For the time being, the wind is with the Courts and their strategy of making haste is the correct one to follow. The sooner they spread to all parts of the former Somalia, the better their chances of survival. To wait and think will only allow the other side to expose your faults, concoct rumours and highlight the weaknesses in your supply lines.

 

One has to give credit where credit is due and in the recent political battles in Somalia the courts have been winning with spectacular knockouts. Nonetheless, since the aim of every Somali is peace, prosperity and the avoidance of unnecessary fighting, one can’t see (for the time being) anyone else running Somalia but the Courts. Let us hope they carry on in the same vain and are not carried away by the bright lights of power and control or even by unnecessary overzealousness! Today Kismayo, tomorrow Bossaso and the day after, erm, better stop here before my ilma adeerayal disown me.

[Gabbal]

They say the Chicken will come home to roost.

 

Anyone disagree Barre Aadan Shire lived up to the testament of not being a warlord (as he has been portrayed to be)? Hmm anyone?

 

Questions people will ask themselves are (1.) Why invade a peaceful city that will obviously cause so much bloodshed and new refugees if you really cared about the people there , (2.) Why invade during ramadan and increase the hardship of the populace if you really cared about the people there, (3.) Why pass through and give legitimacy to the occupation of the Shabellas by way of international broadcast if you really cared about the people there.

 

Those are all questions, and more importantly, character defining insights into overal objectives of the Islamic Courts.

 

Unfortunately the answer has been; we are preventing IGADSOM from deploying in Kismaayo (despite Barre Aadan Shire having been staunchly opposed to foreign troops).

 

That did not cut it because it showed all well that the entity in Muqdisho is but an entity protecting its interests rather then seeking the justice and equality for all peoples that they have espewed.

 

Shicibka Kismaayo are not their people; shicibka Kismaayo are Barre's people. Their responsibility lies with Barre.

 

Barrow magaalada ka bax baa la yidhi. Dadkaadu badbaadso. Reer Gedo said it, reer Puntland said it, as well as his collegues in the parliament and elsewhere.

 

As a result, Barre Aadan, looking out for the well-being of his people as always, packed up and left voluntarily then allow the people of Kismaayo to witness more heartache and problems now on his behalf.

 

Will he be back? I have no doubt, but that is after the entity in Mogadishu has been shown to be the true occupier to the international community as well as Somalis alike.

 

I daresay that has become appearent from the hour the entity from Mogadishu entered the city, no?

[me]

Aahhhhhhhhhhhhh I waited for this moment, HornAfrique and General Duke standing on the same side, having a common enemy.

 

By your powers combined, I am Captain Planet!

 

 

 

THE POWER IS YOURS

[Chimera]

Originally posted by me:

Aahhhhhhhhhhhhh I waited for this moment, HornAfrique and General Duke standing on the same side, having a common enemy.

 

By your powers combined, I am Captain Planet!

 

 

 

 

 

THE POWER IS YOURS

spilled my drink sh1t

[General Duke]

ME, Ihave always had respect for Horn..

Today he knows what I have known for a while..

As for Hiiraale, he is not beaten, he has his troops and arms and still the support of his clan, now thats one dangerous man..