Realistic analyzes of Sh. Shariif Govt.

[RedSea]

Unclebin- » Fri Jan 30, 2009 10:24 pm

 

Kudos to the fella but he's got an uphill battle from here.

 

Somaliland isn't going to work with him. Thats a certainty.

 

Puntland Will probably play the same role they played post-Arta.

 

Now want remains in South Galkacyo to Raas Kambooni.

 

The Shabaab Factor-

 

If you've been observant like me. The shabaab on their website (Kataaib Which is has now been pulled down by Uncle Sam) had started to refer to Sheik Shariif as simply Shariif.

 

Mind you Shariif Sheik Ahmed (they still got respect for his pops) ran away from the battle fields of jihad and that doesn't exactly work with Shabaab.

 

Shabaab along with their allies Raas Kambooni Jabiso etc et al have strategically placed themselves in a position to take most of the south (Galkacyo to Raas Kambooni).

 

They control The Two jubbas, Shabelle Hoose, Much of Gedo and are poised Bakool and they already have Bay.

 

They also have presence in Shabelle Dheexe (They are fighting in balcad) they recently controlled most of Galgaduud under the tutelage of Adan Ceyrow AUN and later Timo jilec aka Abu Sulaym AUN until the so called ahlu sunnah warlords took over with the help of the habeshi but Al shabaab are poised to make a comeback.

 

Now Shariifs group control Beledweyn Most of Hiiraan for that matter and Shabelle dheexe (It's his power base).

 

Xamar is were all these groups including Asmara are in.

 

Shabaab want to fight the Amison troops. He wants more Amison troops.

 

Shabaab want to take Somaali Galbeed NFD , he wants 'peace' with Somalia's neighbors.

 

 

Hassan Dahir Aweys-

 

 

He's been sending messages of Support for Al Shabaab indirectly. He's against the Djibouti group conference and he believes that they should continue to attack the Amisom forces.

 

He's the X-factor.

 

Now what will finally happen is that Shabaab and Shariif either sit down (highly unlikely) or duke it out.

 

By: Unclebin(somalinet message boards).

[Meiji]

If it is realistic, how come the analysis has only the factions and their likely actions/views in it?

 

I have not seen one mentioning of what the people in Somali regions want. For example, most importantly, Mogadishu city.

 

This is not a game of chess where you only have the factions...eventually the faction that wins the support of the people will come out of victorious.

 

The resistance movement won because the Somali people saw them as the morally right side to support and identified the Ethiopians and the TFG as the immoral side which is the evil.