Prof Hussien Ahmed Warsame and SomaliLand

[Tuujiye]

I found this article......By Prof Xuseen..His Visit to Somaliland...

 

Politics

 

Not many people in Borama were aware of my arrival in the city before I gave my short speech at Amoud University graduation on July 27, 2005. That has changed quickly after TV Borama and the new government owned TV in Hargeisa carried the proceedings of the graduation ceremony in their nightly news. My short speech was a small part of the proceedings. But because of its close proximity to the speech of the president of Somaliland, Dahir Rayale Kahin, I was told that it was given an undue exposure. In my short speech, among other things, I talked about the fact that the condition of the road between Dilla and Borama is worse than it was 23 years ago when I last traveled on it. In a segment that I gave advice to the graduates, I painted a gloomy picture of their employment opportunities. I lamented the fact that Somaliland's business people seem not to have yet learned about the virtues of hiring a graduate from a different sub-clan and the fact that the government is not yet able to create jobs for them. I told them that, now that they have the knowledge, they should be able to create jobs themselves. I also told them to enthusiastically participate in their government's experiment with democracy and elections. I argued that development theorists now believe and propagate that economic development follows democracy and not the other way around. I also argued that these theories are in conformity with the ideology of the new World Bank president, Dr. Paul Wolfowitz, and the G-8 Countries Plan for Africa. To counter the influence of the soviet bloc, the World Bank was for some decades willing to finance projects in countries run by authoritarian governments. It was hoping that once the authoritarian government creates a middle class, it would be forced to engage in democratization. With the exception of few countries, like South Korea, that hope has not materialized and the World Bank and G-8 countries are now cognizant of that failure. But I also indicated that the impending parliamentary elections must be conducted fairly and be seen to be fairly conducted for the world to notice. I, therefore, implored the new graduates to act as their government's conscience during the election.

 

Some controversial statements in my short speech did not go unnoticed by President Rayale and several of his cabinet members who accompanied him to the graduation ceremony. In a short reception that followed the convocation, I was introduced to several cabinet ministers. I had a chance to talk to some of those cabinet members in two Khat sessions and at my hotel where they were also staying. I also met the president the day after the convocation for a general discussion about the role of the Diaspora in Somaliland's development. During those discussions, I learned that the government is having difficulty in financing its operations let alone embarking on development projects. I learned that the salaries of employees are so low that even general directors of Ministries are not motivated to appear for work. I learned that it is very difficulty and almost impossible, for a minister to fire those general directors for fear of upsetting the reigning clan equilibrium. I learned that in the rare occasions that the President fires a director general or a minister, he creates a chain reaction which results in the appointment of a director or minister from the same sub-clan. Yet, the President and the Ministers are upbeat about the future of Somaliland. They recount some successes from their diplomatic overtures to Africa, Europe, and the USA. They believe that they have been quietly laying the groundwork for a sustainable lift off of the economy. I was impressed with their frankness about both of their weaknesses and strengths. I was also impressed with their self confidence and the confidence that they have in the efficacy of their secessionist project, although I still think they are misguided.

 

In a Khat session that I had with some of the ministers and the second most powerful officer in Somaliland's central intelligence unit, it came out that they knew all along that I was a federalist Somalilander. Halfway into the session, I was challenged to explain what Somaliland can gain from a re-union with Southern Somalia. I tried to argue on principle and avoid any mention of the federalist's current weak situation. I also thought that I bested them when I turned the table on them and asked them how they can attain international recognition with no hope of solving the Sool and Eastern Sanag dispute. But, they got a lot of mileage from their tactic of making federalism synonymous with constantly failing, externally sponsored government building exercises. I was impressed with their knowledge of what was going on in the federalist camp. I was also impressed with their ability to argue their point without losing their temper. In fact, I thought I had a better discussion with them than I usually have with secessionist Somalilanders in Canada, USA, and the United Arab Emirates.

 

Parliamentary elections: clan or party hegemony

 

When I arrived in Borama, the three political parties, UDUB, UCID and Kulmiye, were finalizing their list of candidates. The voting was originally supposed to take place on September 15, 2005. It was later rescheduled to take place on September 29. Using the 1960 seat sharing formula, Awdal was allotted 13 seats in the 82 seat parliament. There was uproar at the beginning about the low number. But the President was apparently able to convince his home region that the formula will not set a precedent for future elections as these will be based on one man one vote formula. As a result, each of the three political parties was expected to field 13 candidates for competition. Theoretically, since Somaliland is supposed to have moved from a clan based system to a multi-party system, the clan balancing act was to be abandoned. But so far neither the political parties nor the populace has devised an acceptable merit based formula for fielding candidates. They therefore resorted to a hybrid of sub-clan systems and multi-party systems.

 

While all the three political parties are expected to get some votes in Awdal, there is a perception that the government party, UDUB, will dominate. Kulmiye is expected to a get a decent number of votes, and UCID is expected to get some seats. Therefore, clan chiefs competed for the opportunity to put their candidates in the UDUB list. The President, as the head of UDUB had to make critical decisions. Some of those decisions did disappoint certain sub-clans. But it seems that the people took it in stride and I did not hear about an uproar.

 

UDUB was expected to make the first move in fielding its candidates. When the final lists came out, it seemed that Kulmiye and UDUB copied each other in terms of clan balance. The ********** clan which dominates the Awdal region generally divides itself into three sub-clan groups: The Habar Cafaan, the Maxad Case, and the Makaahiil. The Ciise clan is also expected to get some representation in the parliament. As it turned out, all the clans and sub-clans are represented in the list of candidates of each party. I was informed that the plurality of UDUB and Kulmiye candidates are from the Makaahiil sub-clan, while the plurality of the UCID candidates are from the Habar Cafaan sub-clan. Given the complex interaction of divided clan and party loyalties, it is difficult to devise a winning formula..

 

If the vote counting rules are followed as they are written, no political party is likely to win all the 13 seats. According to the rules each vote has some value. Each party will get a number of seats commensurate to the votes it received. These seats will then be given to the candidates according to the number of votes he/she received. As an example, if 130,000 people vote in Awdal region, and say, UCID receives 20,000 votes, UCID will get 20,000/130,000 x 13 or 2 seats. UCID will give the seats to the two candidates in its list who received the highest number of votes. Assuming that the voting takes place in an orderly manner and no multiple voting occurs, the results can not be predicted easily. UDUB is hoping that the people will vote for the party of the President who is from Awdal. But individuals may vote for candidates from their sub-clans regardless of party affiliation.

 

There is only one woman candidate in the region. Her name is Ikran Hagi Daud Warsame (yes, she is my cousin) and she is representing Kulmiye. Although Kulmiye received a very respectable number of votes in Awdal during the presidential elections, its chairman, Mr. Silanyo, seems to have written off the region as UDUB territory and has not so far seriously campaigned in the region. But Ikran seems to be very popular among women in Awdal and Awdal Diaspora due to her willingness to spearhead or participate in family and women related projects in the region. Before my arrival in Awdal, I was not that optimistic about her success. The last time I saw Ikran was twenty three years ago. Since then, she got a husband and gave birth to ten healthy children. I was expecting a woman beaten by the times and the difficulty circumstances in Somaliland. Instead, I saw a very self-confident, dynamic, articulate, and beautiful woman. I certainly now share her admirers' optimism for her election. But, Ikran does not want to take anything for granted and is working hard to get those votes out. She is one of only seven women candidates in a list of 246 candidates throughout Somaliland. I was impressed with the activities of the Somaliland minister for women's affairs, Ms Fadumo Suudi, who, although supposedly an UDUB member, works very hard to see all those seven women elected regardless of their party affiliations.

 

Final points

 

Before I arrived, I had some idea about the situation in Borama and Somaliland in general. I knew that Somalia is the second poorest country in the world. But nothing really prepared me for the extent that people's life has deteriorated during the last twenty three years since I left that part of the country. It seems that these people lost the ability to produce. Almost all the businesses in the country are imports and resale. The country even imports salt which it used to export. A typical work day in a government office is less than five hours long. Once the Khat arrives from Ethiopia at about 11:00 AM, and at a cost of 60 million dollars per year in Somaliland alone, all adult males abandon their jobs. It seems that people, especially men, have lost the ability to work. Somaliland, like the rest of Somalia, runs on remittances from the Diaspora and from international agencies. It is a land of consumers. Yet, Somalilanders and their government are optimistic about the future. They say that good days are just around the corner. The government believes that it laid the foundation for a lift off of the economy. It is banking on the democratization process and an international recognition as a country.

 

There are certainly bright spots in Borama and else where in Somaliland. Some of these bright spots for the future of Somaliland include the universities in Amoud, Hargeisa, and Burao. I was fortunate to meet with the president of Hargeisa University, Prof Abdi Haybe, who gave me a description of the university's programs. I was also given a tour by an MBA classmate of mine, Prof. Mohamed Farah. The university, which is housed in a former secondary complex, has the look of a typical small university in North America. Most of its programs of study are similar to those of Amoud University. The graduates of Amoud and Hargeisa universities are already making a difference. The manager and the accountant of Rays Hotel in Borama are graduates of Amoud University's business school. The financial controller of the elections' committee is a graduate of Amoud Business School. Some of the most active employees of Hargeisa municipality are graduates of Hargeisa University's Business School. These employees do not chew Khat and work longer hours than older government employees. They could serve as the ingredients for the much needed social and cultural rehabilitation of the Somali male population.

 

Burao University's first batch of students is now sophomore. I was told that the idea of a university in Burao itself has already served as an impetus for attitude changes in that society. People decided not to wait for a government to fix their problems. They are building bridges and psychiatric hospitals without much help from governments. Within a couple of years, the first graduates of Burao University will be on the market and will affect more positive changes.

 

A faculty that attracted my attention and which may prove the most useful in Somaliland's development is the Law Faculty of Hargeisa University. Somaliland is forging a democratic system of governance and an open and market economy. But so far it does not have the legal capacity to build democracy and or market economy. Graduates from the Law Faculty will contribute tremendously to building that capacity. The hottest development issue nowadays is the property rights issue. Some economists, like Hernando De Soto, convincingly argue that capitalism can work properly in the developing world and poverty could be alleviated if the “dead capital†in these countries is reactivated by instituting proper and trust worthy property formal registration. Countries like Peru and Egypt that experimented with this concept has already seen the emergence of viable mortgaging and banking businesses. Due to the investment in housing by a large number of Somaliland Diaspora, both Borama and Hargeisa are littered with large buildings and other properties that are nothing but “dead capital†since they can not be used for leverage to create businesses. Graduates of the law faculty will be handy to create trust worthy property registration. I discussed this concept with the president of Somaliland, Dahir Rayale Kahin , who seemed to appreciate its merit.

 

The future is in education and in educational institutions.

 

Prof Hussein Ahmed Warsame

 

UAE University, Al-Ain, UAE

 

Wareer Badanaa!!!

[Baashi]

I haven't read the piece...time permitting I will def read in its entirety.

 

Now the reason I'm posting this one is to wlc u on the politics section. I'm delighted to have one of original Ciyaalka Xaafada join the section where grown up men sometimes make fool out of themselves

 

Keep it coming sxb and share ur opinions with the junkies.

[wind.talker]

I read this piece on Hiiraan Online already. Its an eye-opening account of the situation in Somaliland (and, by some stretch, in the whole of Somalia). Some highlights:

 

It seems that these people

lost

the ability to produce. Almost all the businesses in the country are imports and resale. The country even imports salt which it used to export. A typical work day in a government office is

less than five hours

long. Once

the Khat

arrives from Ethiopia at about 11:00 AM, and at a cost of

60 million dollars per year

in Somaliland alone, all adult males abandon their jobs.

Seems like this system is in much need for strict labor laws. Five hours a day isn't enough to re-start an economic engine that halted long ago. Lack of labor laws and the Khat epidemic are problems across the Somali peninsula. The real problem is with the weak leaders who focus on micro-issues (i.e. qabiil, staying in power, etc.) whilst overlooking the macro ones: creating jobs, fighting against the Khat epidemic, funding education and health programs, etc.

 

However, a positive light emerges from the darkness:

 

The graduates of

Amoud and Hargeisa universities

are already making a difference. The

manager and the accountant

of Rays Hotel in Borama are graduates of Amoud University's business school. The

financial controller

of the elections' committee is a graduate of Amoud Business School. Some of the most active employees of Hargeisa municipality are graduates of Hargeisa University's Business School. These

employees do not chew Khat and work longer hours

than older government employees. They could serve as the ingredients for the much needed social and cultural rehabilitation of the Somali male population.

This new generation of educated class who'd already seen the pitfalls of poverty and incompetence hopefully won't make the same mistake as their predecessors. And, from the fact that they work long hours and don't chew Khat, it seems they're learning from the past and are working towards a better future. May Allah's blessings be with them. Aamin!

 

The future is in education and in educational institutions.

Can someone really say this enough? I'm sure we all can't agree on the professor's political views, but we can at least agree on his social and economic points.

 

Thanks for the post; its a piece worthy of discussion.

[Suldaanka]

I remember when Prof. Hussien used to call Somaliland "secessionists" and "North West" and other crap.

 

Good to see the good prof. has changed for the better.

 

If the vote counting rules are followed as they are written,

no political party is likely to win all the 13 seats

. According to the rules each vote has some value. Each party will get a number of seats commensurate to the votes it received. These seats will then be given to the candidates according to the number of votes he/she received. As an example, if 130,000 people vote in Awdal region, and say, UCID receives 20,000 votes, UCID will get 20,000/130,000 x 13 or 2 seats. UCID will give the seats to the two candidates in its list who received the highest number of votes.

Very interesting calculations.

[kidd]

An excellent and very informative aricle!