Al-Shabaab’s Unavoidable Clash with Somaliland Democracy

[Che -Guevara]

Jb...The SNM (military wing) had little or no operational capabilities in the early 80s. It was still in its infancy but the departure of northern and northeastern officers did obviously weakened the SNA at officer level.

[Jacaylbaro]

It has operational capabilities in the early 80s although it was gradually increasing.

 

The departure of the Somaliland officers weakened a lot and that was also increasing from the early 80s to the late 80s .... after full evacuation was then when the government collapsed.

 

The other officers (northeastern) are not relevant here ... by the end of 1984 all of them returned back to the Somali government and the few that remained were put behind the bars in Ethiopia.

[Che -Guevara]

^But they are relevant unless your argument is Northern Officers is what made the Somali war.And add the political dimension to the equation as the State lost the confidence of an entire communities. The country began to unravel at every level after 77. SNM represented one dimension of the overall problem that was facing the Somali state.

[Jacaylbaro]

It was actually the USC that caused the collapse of the government. The SNM only targeted its clan regions.

Hales, markaasaad caqliyaysatay dee adigu and thought USC inay dalka oo dhan qabsatay ,,,

 

 

The government put all its military and resources in Somaliland during the 80s and the USC capturing the capital was the last resort they've done. SNM has no intention of crossing its borders at any cost.

 

The government was badly weakened and defeated in the north (Now Somaliland) and by the end of the 80 there was no much left to defend the remaining regions in the South including the capital Muqdisho.

[Jacaylbaro]

Originally posted by Che -Guevara:

^But they are relevant unless your argument is Northern Officers is what made the Somali war.And add the political dimension to the equation as the State lost the confidence of an entire communities. The country began to unravel at every level after 77. SNM represented one dimension of the overall problem that was facing the Somali state.

SNM was the only entity who continued and was able to fight between 1982 and 1989 .... The military officers continued to defect to the SNM side during that period.

 

SSDF did not resist that much as the Somali government managed to defeat them both politically and militarily.

[Che -Guevara]

^No body denies SNM did damage to the State but to say it caused its ultimate downfall is disingenuous and factual wrong. The government sphere of influence started decreasing right after 77 war.

[Che -Guevara]

Al-shabaab can only fight where it has

mass following

and that is why it was able to withstand against the Ethiopia's army

Now you are making sense Oodweyne

[Jacaylbaro]

The SNM war was not just military sxb .... it was political, economical and of course military. If not SNM and the SSDF seized to operate early 80s then the Somalia military would have to increase its capacity and recover from its loss.

 

But with SNM they have never got the chance to do so and they had to transfer all the military resources to the north (now Somaliland).

[Che -Guevara]

Oodweyne..Agreed, as long as you don't tell me the Somaliland's army super awesomeness is what keeping them away.

 

 

JB..I will have to disagree with that assessment.SSDF might have stopped being militarily operational but it had two effects on the SNA and the Somali state at large.One is the military aspect in that Somali officers of Puntland origin have all abandoned the army as institution. Of course, some came back but most were demoted and were never trusted-essentially rendering their usefulness as military officers. The second effect SSDF had on the Somali state is the political one. The entire community was marginalized and their property confiscated, not mention the crimes committed against them in response to the Cirro coup. SSDF delivered the second blow to the Somali state and army. The first blow was the defeat in 77. The third blow was SNM. The formation of USC and lack of support from southern tribes to the government was the last and the lethal blow.

 

 

If the government and army had full backing (politically, militarily, and economically)of all southerners, than equation would have been different because any setback suffered by government could have been corrected and SNM will have behaved like Tamil tigers. It would have been one Somali clan vs every Somali.

[Jacaylbaro]

Che, You're still talking about the early stages of SSDF but once SNM emerged they were not under question anymore.

 

I know their properties are confiscated and a lot of villages are swept by the SNA but later on the government was trying to cover the damage. They were politically defeated and have no ground support starting from the infamous war in Balanballe and Galdogob where the Ethiopian flag was raised. That is when Abdillahi Yusuf was arrested and the rest of the officers fled to the Somalia side to join the government.

 

From that point, the government had a full backing of almost all Somalis but the increasing military operations and the number of the failures in different fronts turned the tide to the other side.

[Che -Guevara]

the government had a full backing of

almost all Somalis

JB..This is where you are wrong! The Somali government lost the confidence and support of the southerners. As someone who's from Puntland (tribally), I assure we had no allegiance to the government till the bitter end. And this is coming from someone who was born in Bilaajo Carab. I could only imagine how people in Mudug, Nugal and Bari felt. The same sentiment prevailed among all southern tribes. And anyone who lived in Xamar and the south at large can attest to that.

 

The Somali state failed cuz it's severed its relationship with the public. Without the support of its consistency, the government failed.

 

 

Oodweyne...I believe this is what I and Jb trying to establish. Institutions can not survive without the tacit approval of the public.Now if the question is can Somaliland army live up to the expectation of its base, then that's another argument.

[rudy-Diiriye]

Somaliland is broke! wats the use of invading broke azz negros. Jeb kaaga aye kacanta galinayaan! loool.

 

I believe Ash'b will invade bugland since mo money mo money is there and the place is in turmoil. u will see it soon.

[Che -Guevara]

^We must had different vantage points.

[Jacaylbaro]

That was one healthy debate with Che i must say ..... we still have our differences though.

[rudy-Diiriye]

Che plz throw some change to these broke azz somalilander negros ha idinka aa mosaane! lol

 

Baaha heesa noo! loooooooool. Ramadan waayee marka ajar aa ka heli.

 

Amxaaki sarifkii uu ka goowyeeye noo.