Al-Shabaab’s Unavoidable Clash with Somaliland Democracy

[Jacaylbaro]

If the suicide bombings in Kampala during the World Cup finals were a sign of al-Shabaab’s plans to fight outside of southern Somalia, then Somaliland’s new ruling party must prepare for more attacks. Al-Shabaab leader Shaykh Ahmad Abdi Godane “Abu Zubayr” has made clear his intention to expand al-Shabaab’s jihad to his native Somaliland.

 

Somaliland’s democratic political system and desire for independence are to Shaykh Abdi Godane what Egypt’s secular state is to Ayman al-Zawahiri and Saudi Arabia’s friendship with the United States is to Osama bin Laden – blasphemy. Abdi Godane is a Salafist who fought with al-Qaeda in Afghanistan until the end of 2001 and calls for jihad “until Islamic law is implemented on all continents of the world”

 

 

AFP

[Che -Guevara]

What's this obsession with showdown?

[Che -Guevara]

Al-Shabaab has bigger prize on its sight.Hargeysa is not in the equation anytime soon.

[Thankful]

Originally posted by Oodweyne:

 

Given, that, unlike Pirate-land, there is no "teeming sleeper cells" in Somaliland that take their orders from some miserable misfits in the mountains of Asia Minor, indeed.

 

 

Regards,

Oodweyne.

Well let’s be reasonable (which I don’t expect a secessionist to be), in Puntland there are two borders to defend against. Al Shabaab's home base is in the south and to get to NW Somalia they have to go through Puntland. Many of our resources must ensure that Gaalkayo and surrounding area's are well protected from Al Shabaab threats. Unlike NW Somalia who does not have to worry about Djibouti or Ethiopian borders! If you saw in Burco a couple months back Al Shabaab was able to find a safe house for its members. It's reasonable to assume there are more!!

 

The Gagala conflict was a brazen and foolish attack that proved Puntlands military capabilities as well as it political maneuvers, by getting the people of these areas’s to support them and not join the criminals. Something NW Somalia has failed itself in Sool! Where the newly selected president has not been to Lascaanod and more then likely will never bother to venture.

[Thankful]

No disgruntled communities huh? Is there not a group named the SSC?

 

Look I am pointing out that your typical hypocrisy is the real gibberish. Puntland is dealing with and armed group and is engaged it a mission to defeat them.

 

Similarly there is an armed group within the borders you claim your region occupies. Your region accuses this group of planting roadside bombs and other activities that would be defined as terrorist. Either they don't fall in your borders or you are wrong when you say there are no disgruntled groups.

 

So just like we are dealing with an armed group (who hide in the mountains). Your region is also dealing with an armed group. That are in the open and have attacked your militias.

Next time you talk about how a gagala conflict could never happen to your enclave. Remember the SSC.

[Som@li]

If Alshabaab defeats TFG, AMISOM, and Ethiopia forces in Somalia, It won't take half a day to run over Somaliland and Puntland.

 

So the logic thing would be to send your armies and fight along the Somali government before it is too late.

[Jacaylbaro]

Waar kaalaya na difaaca uun iska dheh ,,,,

[NGONGE]

Right now, it's very avoidable. Al Shabab and their ilk only thrive in wild places. The powers that be need to give them an opportunity to do so first.

[Hales]

Alshabaab is principally a Southern phonemon, in the post anarchic time, Somalia was carved in to two two regions in which each regions within said area share a same political constituency.

This is the South and the North, and you could extend it a little bit and have another for the North west.

 

Hypothetically speaking if a millitary clash did occur between two said belliguerents such as SomalilandPuntland and Alshabaab then it would obviously depend on millitary recources, the terrain, strategy, number of soldiers etc.

[Jacaylbaro]

If Alshabaab defeats TFG, AMISOM, and Ethiopia forces in Somalia, It won't take half a day to run over Somaliland

Bring it on biaaaaaaa*t^ch .... miyay odhan jireen

 

 

Don't u know Somaliland with less resources and capacity ran over the strongest military in Africa who defeated Ethiopia, Cuba and their allies ??

[Che -Guevara]

Don't u know Somaliland with less resources and capacity ran over the strongest military in Africa who defeated Ethiopia, Cuba and their allies ??

Now, we knows where the delusions come from?

 

 

P.S. Just factual correction, Somalia was defeated in 77 despite its initial success! The arrival of the Cubans and the massive Soviet arsenal sealed the Somali Army fate. since then, the Somali forces were on downward trajectory.

[Jacaylbaro]

Even after 1977 it still maintained the status quo .... and military remained strong.

[Che -Guevara]

^Not really, a lot of the officer corp have abandoned the army and turned against the government.By the late 80s, the officer corps were largely uneducated, ill-equipped bunch.Everything in the Somali institutions took qabiil dimensions as well.

[Jacaylbaro]

I'm talking about the beginning of the 80s when the SNM started its operations ..... that is when the SNA was weakened and by the late 80s almost all of them were gone.

[Hales]

I assure you that if ever it comes to a frontal engagement with Somaliland, then, Al-Shabaab of this world will not stand a snowball chance in hell against Somaliland's army.

Niyow adiga buufis kilia baa haysa, im sure some of the posters here who support Alshabaab would have said the same thing of their own and have lifted them to the point of invisibillity as you are doing right now.

Now im urging you to be more objective in what your saying and not obviously lose the biased tenacies which your enroaching with us on here.

Were speakin of the entity here which gave the TFG numerous times a good run for its money under Yeey govenment and gave a good smaking to Ethiopias army which you would not dispute is much more powerful than either Puntland or Somaliland and combined too.

The same entity which your also badmouthing is also highly motivated, trained, organized and also perhaps most expierenced fighting force in the Somali peninsula similar to that of the Taliban which is giving the Nato grievances in Afghanistan.

It could fight any millitray in the Horn of Africa whose army numbers in the low tens of thousands and could give it a good fight. Now victory would obviously depend on certain factors as i have pointed out earlier.

 

Don't u know Somaliland with less resources and capacity ran over the strongest military in Africa who defeated Ethiopia, Cuba and their allies.

It was actually the USC that caused the collapse of the government. The SNM only targeted its clan regions.

It was not Somaliland as the SNA was prinicpally a national army which includes the Northwestern territory.

The success of guerella activities of the SNM itself needs to be reviewed.

Somalia was actually decisively defeated by Ethiopia in the late 70s and lost a bulk of its army and weapons, later then it lost its title of being the most powerful in Sub saharan Africa.

THe SNM was chiefly being supplied and was filled with weapons by entities such as Libya (which later withdrew support), S. Union and Ethiopia and like the SSDF had far more weapons than manpower.

In 1988 Ethiopia the chief supplier withdrew support and the SNM pulled all of its major energy into one attack and captured half of Hargeisa and all of Burco and some other cities in the Northwest; a major bombings and invasions as a repurcusion followed and the SNM became until the collapse of the government dormant. or very low intensity.