TFG gives way to Ahlu-Hilib wa Suufi: The New Installment

[Abtigiis]

The US and its allies, notably Ethiopia have moved from their strategy of imposing warlords and traitors as 'secular government' which will deal with the threat of Islamic extremism.

 

As part of the endless installments of polices and strategies, Ahlu-sunna wa jammaca is in vogue now. This is designed to foment yet another cycle of bloody internal war among 'religious' groups.

 

Well, the fact remains that there is nothing religious about the Ahlu-hilib wa Suufi group who are opening up new offices in Nairobia and elsewhere in the form of large edifices for lavish get-togathers that looks down on the famous Carnivore restaurant in that city.

 

There is no reason to be cheerful about the advent of this new group and in many ways it is sad that the people of Somalia have to endure more years of blood-bath, but one thing is certain. In weeks to come, the supposed inter-islamist fued will come out clear, when the leaders of the side best known for their fancy hair-styles, non-vegetarian food consumption, and crescendo of melodious music in the company of women parade in the capitals of East Africa with IGAD and whoever replaces that monster Frayzer.

[NASSIR]

Here is my understanding of the dynamics of a post-Yusuf TFG.

 

One thing you have to acknowledge is that if the power social base which sustained and nourished the movement now decided to overturn the page and rid this convenient group of its excesses, they can simply do it for the following reasons. I also predict that the Al-shabaab insignia stomped in the heart of a far-flung communities who had high hopes of the radicals seizing the opportunity to be the ultimate successor of a post-Yusuf TFG political arrangement will turn out to be a history in a year or two years time.

 

First, the composition of Al-shabaab will be reduced to anyone whose clan is not a majority in the district or regions it dominates.

 

The logistical pipeline through which their financing and weapons come is bound to be clogged. Instead the money and weapons directly flows to Ehlu Sunna.

 

Ehlu Sunna would maintain the advantage of a friendly environment in which Shabaabs will find it hard to self-sustain and recruit members of the large clan.

 

A large defection would also weaken the Shabaabs sooner Ehlu Sunna assumes control of the capital, probably institutionalizing them into a national force.

 

 

War jiraaba cakaaruu iman.

 

-Cell

[Emperor]

There is no such thing as Ahlu-Sunna, we have had witnessed and seen many names, the USC, UIC and now the Ahlu-Sunna Wal-Jamacah. Alshabaab iyo wiilashan aad galbeedka kasoo aruurisay waqtigoodi waa dhamaaday danti laga lahaanna waa lagu gaaray, iyagaa hada laga takhalusi, today their corpses lie on the streets of Dhuusamareeb and Gelinsoor.

[Fabregas]

@A@T. Uncle Sam is learning from the British colonials and ditching the shock and awe military policy in favour of local tribal uprisings and so called Islamic militias to counter their enemies. That means even moderate "Islamists" will be tolerated to counter the expansion of her percieved enemies. Of course, this means inter religous/clan warfare and competing factions like Afghanistan of yesterday. Watch how many different groups arise out of thin air, full armed, when the Ethiopians leave.

[NGONGE]

^^ Don't blame it on Uncle Sam, saaaxib. If such groups do arise they will do so because of Somalis hating other Somalis. Uncle Sam has NOTHING to do with this age old hate.

[Fabregas]

I didn't blame it on Uncle Sam, that was merely your assumption. Secondly, nobody denied or said Uncle Sam has something to do with centuries old Somali hatred. To say that there is a divide and conquer policy, doesn't denote denial of hatred between brethren. Just pointing out that giving poor Iraqi tribes millions and millions of dollars of money and weaponry for them to handle your enemies is an effective tool. This policy will probably be tested in Somalia- after the policy of sponsoring Ethiopian occupation failed.

[Thierry.]

Caamir you are spot on

 

The young men for a long time played an integral part in the liberation of the country, hada laakin their posture of continuation of the war irrespective of whether the enemy leaves has made a lot of clans who allowed them to operate uneasy.

 

Every tool has a purpose Al Shabaab one was to rid the nation of Ethiopia they now have an option of joining national forces or be eradicated.

 

Abu 90% of the South support Nur Cade and Sheik Sharif even the folks of South Mudug who in the past used to fight their counterparts of Banaadir region have put all their support behind it.

 

The time for peace and stability has arrived

[Resistance]

^^ I hope u are right, but your statement that 90% of the south support Shariif & Cade is not quite current on this day. Many people, in particualar of the 'aqoon yahaniinta' are suspicious of Shariif, not necesarry him but his backers and those tat he surronded himself with, many beleive indivivuals with alterior motives have taken advantage of him. He does not command the respect he did 2 years ago.

 

I hope to Allah in the commings months all sides can sit and hamper out a deal that will at least mean ceasefire and the average folk can roam free without fear and intimidation. but right now the various factions all have very different doctrines that may prove to be hard to reconcile.

 

U also talk that the Al-shaabas will be eliminated unless they accept peace and join the national army ( reminds me the talk of Yeey supporters in the yesteryear ).

[Hadoodil]

The complex and often unpredictable Somali saga seems to be drifting wobbly from worse to worse. The much-awaited crumble of the TFG house of cards coincides with the advent of a myriad of loosely-knit radical Islamist factions whose institutional infrastructure spans across the Somali inhabited regions of the Horn of Africa. The sway and influence of the emergent hard-line Islamists is gaining momentum while all other ventures, including the inexcusable Ethiopian military intervention seem to have bungled. The Somali crisis becomes increasingly entrenched and intractable and is unlikely to be resolved in the near future.

 

With the hindsight knowledge, it is interesting to note that the Ethiopian military intervention was the best thing that happened to Al-Shabab. It provided a much-needed casus belli to a largely unpopular Islamist radical group which was in its embryonic stage. Al-Shabab must be indebted to Ethiopia and IGAD for their meteoric rise and mysterious staying-power.

 

The presence of Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu and Baydhabo was the principal raison d’etre of the loosely-affiliated Islamists. Enmity towards Ethiopia remains the major unifying factor among the hordes of unruly Islamist militias who sway the control of much of southern Somalia.

The upcoming departure of Ethiopian troops is expected to trigger a deadly internecine strife between the various Islamist factions. A mutually destructive struggle between the Islamists would eventually diminish their clout on socio-economic and political life of Somalis in the Horn and beyond. And that seems to be on track!

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Originally posted by Thierry.:

Every tool has a purpose Al Shabaab one was to rid the nation of Ethiopia they now have an option of joining national forces or be eradicated.

Awoowe, I am little surprised by your slip-up there calling for an eradication (genocide) of the multi-clan Muslim Youths that have forced the Ethiopians make plans for withdrawal. I call your comment a slip-up because I don’t believe you are that extreme. The above argument is the same one Yeey had used in the name of "national government" and he was unsuccessful. This whole chatter about “National Government” and “peace” can turn into an inane exercise once we start harboring those views?

 

NOTE: Al-Shabaab which controls 80% of the South doesn't need to join the TFG. In practical terms, the TFG is the one that needs to join Al-Shabaab and allow the country to be ruled under the Shariah law.

[General Duke]

Thierry is calling for genocide against AL Shabaab now that he believes his clan has the upper hand. :rolleyes:

 

The problem is the lads dont belive what Thierry and others do. They are the ones who defeated the TFG and Ethiopia and they will defeat the little weaklings who are now thinking big.

[Thierry.]

Adeer Nur Cade and Sh Sharif are not my sub clan if you believe that’s where the upper hand is. If they are an obstacle to peace in the south then they have to be eradicated. If you secretly want them to win so that Yey younger brother comes to power just say so.

[Juje]

Originally posted by General Duke:

The problem is the lads dont belive what Thierry and others do. They are the ones who defeated the TFG and Ethiopia and they will defeat the little weaklings who are now thinking big.

You had to wait for Yeey to resign to acknowledge that Al-Shabaab has defeated the TFG and the Ethiopians.

[Thierry.]

LST

The Multi-clan Muslim Youth were and still to a certain degree are the backbone to the resistance against the Ethiopian forces for if they vanished today the Tigris would walk right back in. They are as important in the war as Khawarij were in Ali (ra) army, but when the fight ended he marched against for what reason other than to eradicate them.

It is a very simple choice for the young brothers to either be part of the solution or be part of the problem.

[General Duke]

Theirry adeer: Nur Cade & Sharif Ahmed are your clan man up and admit that nothing has changed other than shifting of personalities. Yesterday you was raving mad about Al Shabaab, what changed? Oh is it the fact that their leaders and warriors are no longer beholden to your groups in Guriceel?

 

Goodane, Shangool, Abu mansuur, Xasan Turki all seem to be from various clans and areas. Nur Cade, Sharif Ahmed, Ahmed Abdisalaan, AbdiShakur are all from the same sub-clan.

 

Give it a break. And it was Al Shabaab who fought while Sharif Ahmed was rescued by the Americans and put into a hotel.