The Battle Over Africa

[Jacaylbaro]

Somalia

 

No country best exemplifies the frequent proxy wars and geopolitical dynamics of Africa as much as Somalia. Switching from the Soviets to the U.S. on several occasion the government collapsed completely in 1991 and afterwards devolving into warlordism with several secessionist states forming in the area. In 2006 a powerful force emerged lead by the Islamic Courts Union with significant ties to the global jihadist network including al-Qaeda. Allegedly the ICU was backed by Eritrea with Ethiopia supporting its opponents, a part of the cold war between Ethiopia and Eritrea since their war over the border region of Badme. Ultimately Ethiopia, backed by the United States, launched an offensive into Somalia pushing back the ICU.

 

Since then, however, the situation has deteriorated. Al-Shebab, the militant wing of the Islamic Courts Union, became more radicalized and most leaders of the ICU had been swept aside following the Ethiopian intervention. Shebab has begun regaining lost territory in Somalia with its forces beginning to encircle Mogadishu and having already gained control of major ports in the Southern part of Somalia like Kismayo. They also have won support from the local populations to some extent by drastically reducing the crime rate in areas they've claimed. At the same time the Ethiopian government has announced plans to pull out of the country at the end of the year which could be followed by withdrawal of the African Union force. With the Western-backed transitional government in dire straits a withdrawal of foreign forces would allow the quick victory of al-Shebab over remaining resistance in Southern Somalia.

 

At this point focus would shift to north and the autonomous state in Puntland along with the pirates in the region. If Islamic force can manage to secure victory against Puntland then their next target will be the secessionist state of Somaliland. In such a scenario the West is likely to recognize Somaliland as an independent state and rush to its aid. This conflict could then become another proxy battle between Eritrea and Ethiopia. At the same time with Ethiopia less engaged in the country they could seek to resolve their conflict with Eritrea by force. Such an operation would likely receive Western support as Eritrea has also made threats to neighbor Djibouti including a brief border conflict. Any scenario where Ethiopia and Eritrea go to war will likely also include a conflict in Djibouti which is likely to bring in France and the United States. In such a scenario Eritrea could leak to foreign powers like Iran or Russia for support, thus casting the conflict as a greater proxy war between outside powers.

 

 

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[Liqaye]

Everything every where might lead to somali lands recognition aint that right?

[Jacaylbaro]

Yeah ,,, you make a move it is always good for Somaliland sxb. Even those who tried to harm SL are realizing how that was helpful for SL ,,,,

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

lol@ rush to its aid.

[rudy-Diiriye]

sland should be given to ethiopia...what heck, only airline goes there is ethio airline and there are more ethios working/living than slanders.

 

i say somalis should give sland to ethiopia as a xmas present so they leave the rest of somalis alone. i say good deal.

[Liqaye]

^^ they would have access to the sea and a couple of somalis who want to get away from other somalis, since they are understandaly tired of waiting for godot let them get away by being annexed by the amhara.

[Mintid Farayar]

JB,

 

Thank you for posting this article. Very little attention is paid to the greater Africa game by Somalis. Global interest in Africa is at an all-time high,a fact missed by Western&Arab-residing Somalis who are solely focused on what goes on in their domicile.

 

I fear all Somalis are ill-prepared for this new 'Great Game'. A large portion of the elites of the continent are taking great advantage of the propulsion of Africa to the world stage. Much of the development of neighboring countries in the last decade has been fueled by this (i.e. Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, etc.).

 

It's also very difficult to get any factual info on Somaliland from open source sites. Any reason why? There's countless info on the South out there (much of it factual and objective). Somaliland websites primarily engage in commentary rather than factual reporting of events and trends. Any observations from the ground?