SOMALIA: Islamic Courts warn of possible renewal of civil war

[Gabbal]

SOMALIA: Islamic Courts warn of possible renewal of civil war

 

NAIROBI, 9 October (IRIN) - The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which controls much of southern and central Somalia, has warned of imminent war between it and Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which reportedly took a town close to its headquarters in Baidoa on Monday, a senior UIC official told IRIN.

 

"A combined Ethiopian and TFG force has taken Buur Hakaba town [60km north of Baidoa on the road to Mogadishu, the Somali capital] this morning [Monday] at around 8:00 am local time," said the UIC's vice-chairman Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali.

 

"War is expected at any time," he said.

 

Buur Hakaba, some 180 km from Mogadishu, was in the hands of a local militia sympathetic to the UIC, according to a local resident, until around 7.30am, when the militia left. The resident said TFG and Ethiopian troops had since entered the town.

 

The takeover of Buur Hakaba comes two weeks after the UIC itself took Somalia's southernmost port and third-largest city, Kismayo. The Islamic Courts established control of Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, in June.

 

Peace talks between Somalia's beleaguered government and the Islamic courts had been scheduled to resume in the Sudanese capital on 30 October, but now, Sheikh Ali said all UIC forces across Somalia had been put on high alert, and called the taking of Buur Hakaba "an attempt to derail the Khartoum peace talks and any hope for a reconciliation."

 

In Mogadishu, the chairman of the Islamic Courts, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, appeared dressed in military uniform, apparently for the first time. Journalists who saw him said Sheikh Ahmed accused Somalia's largest neighbour, Ethiopia, of aggression, and declared a Jihad [holy war] against it.

 

A TFG source, who wish to rename unnamed, confirmed the taking of Buur Hakaba by TFG forces, but denied they had Ethiopian assistance or any intention of attacking UIC positions elsewhere. "Our forces have taken Buur. It is for defensive purposes and not to mount an attack on the courts," said the source.

 

An Ethiopian government spokesman also denied the involvement of Ethiopian troops. "No Ethiopian troops have been assisting the TFG soldiers. No Ethiopian troops crossed the border [between Ethiopia and Somalia]," Salomon Abebe, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said.

 

Humanitarian agencies worry that renewed fighting in Somalia could cause a worsening of existing humanitarian problems there. Larger numbers of Somali refugees have been arriving in Kenya in recent days to escape possible violence.

 

The United Nations' Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) for Somalia, told IRIN: "We cannot comment on military movements as such, however, in humanitarian terms, in the case of conflict seriously escalating, we would expect to see large displacement among the affected populations and an exacerbation of an already dire humanitarian situation in south-central [somalia].

 

"We would be especially concerned about civilian populations becoming targets or hostages in such fighting," OCHA said, adding that the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization had recently predicted that if widespread conflict were to erupt, the total number of people in southern Somalia facing humanitarian crisis, could double, "rising as high as 3.6 million."

 

This military activity has increased tension in southern Somalia, with many people worried about renewed conflict. "We are indeed worried that this new development could lead to a wider war on many fronts. Any new fighting would be catastrophic for the already suffering Somali people," said Abdulkadir Ibrahim Abkow, president of Civil Society in Action.

 

Resumed warfare "would take Somalia back to 1991 [the start of Somalia's civil war] with the humanitarian implications that has," Adkow said. He called on both sides "to think of the interests of people first and foremost and to go to Khartoum instead of going to war".

 

Somalia's transitional government was installed in late 2004 but in June this year, the Islamic Courts' militias defeated warlords who supported the TFG and had controlled the city since 1991, following the collapse of a long lasting regime headed by Somalia's last real president, Muhammad Siyad Barre.

[Gabbal]

Another civil war in Somalia?

 

MOGADISHU, Somalia, Oct. 9 (UPI) -- Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts warned Monday the Transitional Federal Government's taking a town near its headquarters increases the risk of civil war.

 

Union Vice Commander Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali told the U.N. Integrated Regional Information Network that the transitional government had Ethiopian assistance when its troops seized Buur Hakaba. Ethiopia denies involvement.

 

Buur Hakaba is about 50 miles from Baidoa, where the transitional government is based, and 130 miles from Mogadishu, the capital. The town had been held by militia friendly to the union.

 

The transitional government was set up in 2004, 13 years after the ouster of Siad Barre removed Somalia's last government. But earlier this year, the union gained control of Mogadishu after defeating the warlords who had run the city since 1991.

 

Union Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has declared a jihad against Ethiopia, journalists who saw the sheikh told IRIN. He was wearing a military uniform for the first time.

 

Peace talks between the two groups had been scheduled to start Oct. 30 in Khartoum.

[Jacpher]

Your wish is granted. Enjoy the party.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by Jimcaale:

Your wish is granted. Enjoy the party.

My wish :confused:

 

Any amateur follower of Somali politics would have known the pandora's box that would have been opened as a result of the Kismaayo invasion.

 

There has been a delicate clan balance in Southern Somalia that had existed ever since the USC's fall in Gedo. The Entity from Mogadishu trespassed on that delicate clan balance with force and arrogance and any amateur would have known what the result would be and will be.

 

I was able to look ahead and see what would be or have been the outcome.

 

My question is, are we in the eye of a storm that could ignite a civil war II that could be more dangerous and have more disastrous ramifications for all parties then the one that took place during the 91-93 period?

I warned of that September the 18th. Kismaayo was invaded September the 26th. There are reports as well as signs of a early Civil War era war-footings now which might start any second now.

 

Do tell me if I was not right on the money?

 

September the 18th.

[Jacpher]

You could be right on that wishful forecast though it is not easy to predict the everyday Somali politics. I don’t wish to go back to old argument but I still don’t understand how you could conclude the takeover of Kismaayo triggered all these changes. If I were to give political projection, I would pick the revolution that took place in Mogadisho which rooted out the evil warlords and the Amxaaro entry to the country. These two factors polarized the political affairs of the country more than anything. Kismaayo’s fall may have played a role but probably not the deciding factor. Civil war is no body’s best interest but the real enemy of the country whomever they might be gaal or gaalo-raacyo. I pray that we don’t go back to ’91 era and the old savage ways of solving problems with guns.

 

I don’t want to be pain in the behind but I heard the interview of the man you seem to love to hate, Ugaas Max’ed Weli on horseednet and he puts fourth some valid points. He could be a phony Ugas as you’ve claimed in the past. No way for us to know that expect take your word for it but he has a different perspective that seem to make sense.

 

EDIT: Hornoow, I'm getting privateka is full, see camal, Let me in sxb.

[Gabbal]

Jimcaale-

 

What if I told you that Barre was the balancing act between the Courts and the transitional federal government? What if I told you it was his neutral position that kept the situation of Somalia on the greater level stable as well as balanced? What if I told you that it was his neutrality that allowed the government and the Courts to continue meeting in Khartoum and have hopes for some sort of negotiation and power-sharing formula but when and if he fully joined a certain camp, the balance in Somalia's situation would undergo a shift and would force an altercation to crown a winner?

 

Keep in mind that Barre is a popular represention of a force; it was the neutrality of that force that prevented a collision.

 

As for the conman; he made some valid points because that is what you wanted to hear. He says he is a religious man (though he is the biggest conman in Somalia today) yet he completely lied about a position he does not have..? Please do not persist in continuing to call him Ugaas especially after you have been made aware that he is not anything close to it for the community that he claims. Why has he self-titled himself Ugaas Maxamed Weli Sheikh Ahmed Nuur and not Ugaas Maxamed Ugaas Weli Ugaas Sheikh? The man's grandfather was not an Ugaas, his father was not an Ugaas, and certainly he never was and never will be an Ugaas considering what kind of opinion the people of the community he claims have of him.

 

That community only has two Ugaases as I have told you countlessly and they are Ugaas Cumar Ugaas Hersi (of Gedo) and Ugaas Ciise Ugaas Cabdulle (of Galgadud). There are no other Ugaases. Do you wnat proof?

 

Dhinaca Beesha ********:

 

Xildhibaan Xasan Cumar

Xuseen Sh.Cabdi ismaaciil-Gudoomiya G/Gedo

Ugaas Cumar Ugaas Xirsi

Ugaas Ciise Ugaas C/lle

Maxamed Cabdi Aden (iris)

Xasan Nuur Sharmaake (warbac)

Nabadoon Mxamed Axmed (indho-yare)

Indhabuur Jaamac Deer

Long ago.

 

 

Ugaasyada Beelaha ******** ee Gedo, Galguduud Ugaas Cumar Ugaas Xirsi, Ugaas Ciise Ugaas Cabdille,

Gedonet.

 

 

There are absaloutely no other Ugaases of that said community and if he lied about being that of all things, what else hasn't he lied about :confused:

 

 

P.S. My mailbox isn't full, I just don't think messaging works at all.

______________

 

No clan names, baliis.

 

[ October 10, 2006, 00:20: Message edited by: Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar ]