The Transitional Government's long awaited rise to power

[Sky]

The patience of Abdullahi Yusuf over the past few months, as the Clan Courts Union have surrounded his bastion, has paid off and he has begun to enjoy the start of its fruition.

 

Even though the Clan Courts Union are the initiators of this new war and are the ones that foolishly challenged Abdullahi Yusuf and his Addis Ababa lifeline, the Clan Courts Union seem to undergo an azzwhooping that will probably last weeks.

 

Beledweyne, Gelinsoor, Cadaado, Caawdwaaq, Bandiiradley, Buuloburde etc. have all fallen. Jowhar, Diinsoor, Hobyo among others will follow suit. It would be foolish to think that the advancement towards Benaadir will end here or soon, this trend will continue till the Transitional Government gains the upper hand in any future negotiations with the Clan Courts Union under Aweys. Taking over Mogadishu is not the objective!

 

Some argue that the Clan Courts Union might have rushed themselves into war, but in all honesty they should have started this war much earlier if they ever wanted to achieve what they have set out to achieve from the beginning; conquer the entire ex-Somali Republic! Now it's too late, the Transitional Government has:

 

- combined and mobilized its own Transitional Government forces with the allied forces of disgruntled ex-warlords and Puntland militias with horrifying military support by the Ethiopian military.

- received their 'licence' by the UN with the help of the US to amass serious military hardware for the weak Transitiona Government's army.

- pulled off the deployment of a peacekeeping force that will strengthen the position of the Transitional Government on the ground.

 

So as you can see the Clan Courts Union haven't seen nothing yet. It's in their interest to call for a ceasefire, before they lose it all. Calling for a ceasefire means losing face among the Somali populace, but they will at least save some baggage for any negotiations with the Transitional Government of which its president was elected fair and squarely (the election was supported by all Somali parties, except for the entity named Somaliland).

 

We've all expected a showdown of epic proportions entering 2007, but nothing like this. Will 2007 be the year Abdullahi Yusuf will control virtually most of Somalia? Arrive in Mogadishu? The total elimination of the Clan Courts Union in much the same way as Al Itihad Al Islamiya in the 90s?

[Che -Guevara]

You are basically looking for the return of the warlords, the very ones that have been destroying xamar.

[Taliban]

Originally posted by Sky:

It's in their interest to call for a ceasefire, before they lose it all.

Why is the TFG begging the ICU for ceasefire?

[Che -Guevara]

Why is the TFG begging the ICU for ceasefire?

Saaxib, maatada iyo ciyaalka ha loo naxo. Heeshiis mooyaane dagaal wax lugu dhameenayo ma jiro.

[Sky]

Taliban,

It's also in the transitional government's interest to have a ceasefire. But only after achieving some important short-term objectives first. Acquire landmass and strategic towns, substantially weaken and isolate the Clan Courts Union and raising the public's perception of its capabilities.

 

Che,

These warlords are tools. Qaybdiid, Hiiraale, Maxamed Dheere, Cabdi Waal, Yuusuf Dabageed etc. should be discarded as used condoms during the negotations with these Clan Courts.

[Sky]

d/p

[Castro]

Originally posted by Sky:

the Transitional Government of which its president was elected fair and squarely (the election was supported by all Somali parties, except for the entity named Somaliland).

So you came back from the dead only to give us a historical non-fact?

[Duufaan]

ceasefire? even melezawi will welcome ceasefire. he promised victory and triumph for his people.

[raadamiir]

Welcome come back sky!!!

 

used to be knowed as Milk around here when you should to come on. But now I am .......

 

once again Welcome back and stay tune.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

The war isn’t over till they have captured Xamer and till then we should wait and see. But I doubt they will ever captured Xamer, even if they use air force and ground force at the same time.

 

Besides Yeey is a warlord himself, he is lending a hand to his fellow warlords.

[Somali_Friend]

Originally posted by Taliban:

Why is the TFG begging the ICU for ceasefire?

Incredible how we try to be different yet we are all the same.

The opposition in ethiopia also said the exact words of the government.

 

Since when is seeking peace and negotiations being taken for weakness. Is the ICU world a world of rambo under saudi and pakistani garb?

[General Duke]

^^^Sky, has made the right points. Bule-Barde has fallen as of now and the TFG troops are moving towards lower Shabbele.

The courts power is concentrated on Mogadishu and their central regions comands have been crushed in less than a day.

 

Hiiraan, Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Puntland, Galgaduud, South Mudug are all in TFG hands..

 

The people never opposed the TFG, it was the warlords and the armed factions/clans, with this removed the people will be getting back their country after 16 long years..

 

patience is a virue indeed.

[Xoogsade]

Indeed, the long awaited rise to power of the ex-warlords might be here. When/if Maxamed Dheere gets to rule Jowhar again(I am certain he still believes A/Y to be a thief and a thuggish elder just for the clan and not a president for all), when Qeybdiid comes back to reclaim his Villa Baydhabo and all his loot, Qanyare reclaims his private Airstrip, Bashiir Raage walks in town like a Jowhn wane armed with two pistols shaving dadka cad cad of shibis's beards since he can't touch others, Yalaxoow comes back again with his dumb comments and reclaims his Madiino, then some of you of little faith will speak with a different tongue.

 

 

Ethiopia as it always did will never intervene warlord squabbles and will pay a lip service to A/Y once the threat of Islam is removed and its dogs are in power. Geeddi's clan might pick up arms against other warlords whom he accuses of hindering their government.

 

Xamar if it falls to the warlords, will revist its old days of devision with each warlord ruling one of its sixteen districts like old times and A/Y can do nothing. The clan matters and the warlords mastered how to get their kinsmen behind them if there is a dispute.

 

A/Y will reap what he saws, a clan war and infights among the residents of Muqdisho who are now tamed by Islam. Once you remove islam, even Ethiopia knows it is a clan war and doesn't intervene, has no business to intervene unless a warlord falls out of favour with it.

 

Intaasoo dhan waxaa kasii foolxun, Melle Zenawi will Visit Muqdisho to piss on Somali soil to make sure he defiled the soil and will make such act a tribute to the ethiopian ancestors who always dreamed of seeing the Indian Ocean.

 

How about Kismayo, it will be a clan war too as Barre Hiiraale won't be able to assume leadership without a bloody war. People are already fighting in Minneapolis along clan lines, some of A/Y's against others who took offence comments made in shops.

 

When A/Y's warlord government runs out of time, the war between clans is not even half way over yet.

[General Duke]

^^^ A good hypothetical assesment of what will be. Its goof that you concede defeat, thoug thing will never go back to how it was as the people will decide their fate from now on. The warlords age is over, all those who are government soldiers will get some credit, as there are no roadblocks in Puntland there will be none insha Allah in the south.

 

The model for the south is Puntland, thus Yusuf has long experince of building up a state and will do so in the south after it is pacified.

 

real losers are all those who occupy farms, whole regions, trade from charcoal and who reside in looted properties. No one will ask them anything, they will brought to justice asap.

[General Duke]

Ciidamada Dowlada oo xoowli saa'id ah ku socda

 

Magaalada Buulo Barde oo ku soo laabataya gacanta dawladda k/gaarka ah

wararkii ugu danbeeyay e naga soo gaaraya G/hiiraan ayaa tibaaxaya in

magaalada Buulo Barde ay si nabad galyo ugu soo wareegtay gacanta dawldda

iyada oo la filayo in guddoomiyaha gobolka Hiiraan Yuusuf Dabageed inuu

dhawaan soo gaarayo magaalada si uu ula hadlo shacabka halkaa ku dhaqan.

 

 

 

 

dhanka kale warar xog-ogaal ah ayaa sheegaya in guddoomiya gobolka Shabeelada dhexe mudane Maxamed Dheere uu isna ku soo jeedo magaalada Jowhar oo xarun u ah gobolkaas waxaana la filayaa in saacadaha soo socda ay ku soo dhacdo gacanta dowlada.

 

Wararka kale oo naga soo gaaraya magaalada Baydhabo ayaa waxay sheegayaan in ciidamada dowladdu ay gacanta ku dhigeen magaalada Buur-Hakaba iyo Diinsoor ayna u kala jihaysteen deegaanada Leego iyo Bu'aale saacadaha soo socdana la filayo in dagaal cusub ka qarxo aagaggaas.

 

 

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Ciise Guure (CG)