CRISIS GROUP - 2005 RECAP - 2006 PLANS

[Suldaanka]

Horn of Africa

 

Horn of Africa In Darfur, Sudan, the security and humanitarian situation re-mained dire. The African Union mission (AMIS) continued to deploy forces, but protection for civilians was fleeting and divisions among the rebel movements hampered efforts to broker a settlement. At year-end, moves gathered pace to ‘re-hat’ the beleaguered AU force as a UN mission, with many more foreign troops. The January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) formally ended the war between the Khartoum government and the insurgent SPLM. However, implementation remained fragile and the sudden death of SPLM leader John Garang was a serious blow. Conflict simmered in eastern Sudan, where the planned withdrawal of SPLM forces in early 2006 threatened to leave a dangerous security vacuum.

 

More than a year since the formation of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the situation in Somalia remained highly unstable, with the TFG divided into two armed camps: one, led by the president and prime minister, based in Jowhar; the other, led by the speaker of parliament and a coalition of faction leaders, based in Mogadishu. In Somaliland, parliamentary elections on 29 September 2005 took place peacefully, reinforcing moves for the region’s independence.

 

The border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea deteriorated steadily in 2005, with both sides increasing their military preparedness, and Eritrea escalating tensions late in the year by banning helicopter flights by the UN monitoring force and demanding that Western peacekeepers leave the country. Ethiopia’s violent suppression of internal dissent weakened its international support.

 

Crisis Group played a decisive role in Somalia in 2005. In February, our intervention, by way of tar-

geted letters, press and personal advocacy in the region and New York, was influential in causing Somalia’s transitional government to step back from the rushed deployment of a controversial regional peacekeeping force not approved by the Somali parliament. The parliamentary speaker, Eu-

ropean Commission, U.S. Mission in Nairobi and Ethiopian sources all emphasised our major role in defusing an explosive situation. A second tar-

geted intervention in July played a critical role in persuading the UN Security Council not to modify the arms embargo on Somalia to enable a regional military intervention. Two reports on Islamism in Somalia in 2005, Counterterrorism in Somalia: Losing Hearts and Minds (July) and Somalia’s Islamists (December), have since become acknowledged essential reference works for policy-makers and journalists.

 

Key issues for Crisis Group in 2006

 

Sudan

# Security in Darfur: The AU deployment has made only a limited impact, as violence against civilians continues. International political will must be mobilised to deploy a more effective multinational force.

 

# Comprehensive peace in Sudan: Peacemaking in Sudan has long suffered from a piecemeal approach. A common framework is required – building on the north-south agreement (CPA) as a point of departure – that addresses power and wealth-sharing across the country.

 

#CPA update: The implementation of the CPA lagged in 2005. More support is needed for the Government of Southern Sudan in 2006 in the development of basic administrative structures, representative institutions, revenue manage-

ment, and demobilisation and reintegration of security forces.

 

#Chad: The Darfur conflict has spilled over into Chad and threatens to destabilise the regime in N’djamena. Internal dynamics in Chad are likewise complicating the pursuit of a politi-

cal settlement for Darfur. Close attention is needed on the linkages between Darfur and Chad and how the deteriorating situation can be addressed.

 

Somalia

 

# The Transitional Federal Government: More than a year since the TFG was formed, a number of key obstacles are preventing progress, demanding attention from both local and international actors.

 

# Somaliland and the African Union: Somaliland is expected to apply for membership in the AU during the course of 2006: the merits of its claim to independent statehood will have to be squarely addressed by regional and international actors.

 

Ethiopia/Eritrea

 

# Where next in the border dispute? With the ever-present risk of war again breaking out, new international incentives and pressures will need to be devised to resolve the boundary demarcation issue once and for all and secure normalised relations.

 

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