This Mogadishu War is Hope

[Alle-ubaahne]

This war will end with the defeat of warlords and peace will born, a lasting peace for all Mogadishu inhabitants, insha-Allah.

 

That is what I believe now.

[nuune]

So the winners will be Aweys and Sharif plus their Cadaani, then who will support their control of the City apart from the residents, if the defeat of the warlords happens(it is happening now) then the Americans will have an easy entry to the city to claim they are rooting out the terrorism, another disaster, kud ka guur oo qanjo u guur

 

 

That is what I also believe!

[Xoogsade]

Nuune, Either way you would be without government defeating the warlords or losing to them if your premonitions do become true. With that said, the question then becomes are you better off with the victory of the warlords or with their defeat? Remember, these warlords don't need a government because their salary can't be paid by the TFG, one that equates the amount of money they generate from their private enterprises on top of what they loot from the lady selling the tomato in the market. They are richer than the government. They are businessmen. Given their inherent internal dispute when no outsider is bothering them, their religious objection to any government, with their victory, we are stuck at where we started from and A/Y's government can do nothing about them. It will be back to A/Y asking for more weapons so he can fight them and these warlords appealing to their clansmen's emotions.

 

On the other hand, and with their defeat, Muqdisho elders have an opportunity to decide the future of the town and form a local government that has the respect of everyone. With the absense of a warlord, no one will care who rules that single town. No territorial dispute and no fiefdoms, a somali city open for business.

 

The individuals you mentioned have no interest in ruling anyone. If anything, they would like to have a say in what people choose which is their right just like the right you have to weigh in when important decisions that relate to you are being decided. If there is ever a victory, it is NOT the men you mentioned who won but the average person in Muqdisho who gets to enjoy life without worrying about when two warlords will fight with one another, or WHEN will one of them deploy his drugged thugs in the streets to generate money for their maintenance.

 

I don't think Americans will come to Xamar to fight. Once their warlords are defeated, they will support the TFG to save face. And hopefully, A/Y and his government will stay firm in condemning the warlords so that America or the world will have no reason to fear and impede progress. Waaba hadduu il presidente Caqli leeyahay oo uusan ku sirmin gaalada beentooda oo nacasnimo eed la dul istaagin the courts. Once he does that, waa u dhammaatay because such meaningless blame will cost the TFG support they might get from Muqdisho.

[General Duke]

This war is not about hope, the courts are now on the back foot. They have been unable to take the Sisi district and the warlords are for once united in their objectives. For example they are reporting that Inda cade is stuck in Xamar as his route is blocked by A/qaybdeed and Co.

 

Mogadishu residents need to rise up and force these people to take their guns, technicals and millitias out of the city.

 

Even if either side wins all we will get is the clan court X ought clan court Y.

[Xudeedi]

I believe we are better off with the Islamic Court.

 

WASHINGTON [MENL] -- Islamic forces loyal to such countries as Iran, Libya and Saudi Arabia have been gaining control in Somalia.

 

A United Nations Security Council report asserted that militias, bolstered by weapons from regional states, control 80 percent of the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The report said Islamic forces have gained control over the city as they overcome U.S.-backed militias.

 

"Three fundamental sources feed this [weapons] flow: a widening circle of states -- each with its own agenda -- arms trading groups and economically powerful individuals, and the business elite," the report said.

 

The report was released as more than 120 people were killed in militia violence in Mogadishu this week. The battles have centered on the rivalry between Islamist units and those aligned with the United States. Both oppose the so-called Transitional Federal Government.

 

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[General Duke]

^^^ This 80% control is ficion. The courts probably directly control no more than 25% and have further influance in 30%.

 

There are news items that bogusly state that, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other Islamic nations support the courts.

 

The courts are supported by the population of the city and specilly the Business community. That is what gives them their strength..

[Castro]

When (or if) the courts destroy the US and greed backed "alliance", would it not be their duty to march to Baidoa to flush out the other entity that is publicly begging the US for assistance to destroy the courts? I mean why just end the issue in Xamar? Go all the way, I say, and see what A/Y will do in his nice blue suit.

[General Duke]

If the courts can take Mogadishu and are savvy enough to bring it into order, it will be progress for all.

 

But that has not come about yet...

[Castro]

General, I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't attacking the president, per se. Here's what has been reported about A/Y on the BBC:

 

Mr Abdullahi called on both sides to end the fighting, and told the BBC the alliance of warlords "are not fighting on behalf of the government".

 

And in the same article:

 

He said it was up to parliament "to take an appropriate action against those members who are waging the war".

 

And incredibly shortly after that:

 

And he called on the US to work with the government not "individuals in the capital" to fight terrorism.

 

How did members of his own government become "individuals in the capital?" And while denouncing and distancing himself from the anti-terror alliance that includes some members of his own government, he publicly asks for assistance to do the same thing they're doing. In essence, he says, let me be the one armed by the US to fight the courts. Or am I misreading the BBC article and the quotes it contains?

 

Source

[General Duke]

^^^ Your comments are valid. However I belive the President means if there are terror suspects in Somalia as the US claims then they must go through the poper channels in order to get at them. They must provide clear evidance and it would be a matter for law enforcement. Also if they [uS] are serious about their claims then assist the TFG in building up its capability.

 

This is the only way to ensure success, financing renegade warlords to shell the capital is not in the interest of the US.

[Castro]

I see. That's indeed another plausible explanation to the comments in the article. We'll see how things unfold. My suspicion is the only assistance the US gives out is to those who publicly admit fighting "al-Qaeda-backed jihadists." That last label is for domestic US consumption and to justify the pillaging of the federal reserve. So unless and until A/Y publicly declares war on the courts, he won't receive a red cent.

[General Duke]

Comrad, if he declares war on the courts he strengthens the position of those who oppose him. The fact that these courts are largely based around a single clan will not help him in anyway.

 

What [TFG] needs to do is avoid this conflict and then try to open negotiations with the courts. They could be incorporated into the governemnt and their armed groups into the new security forces. Now the courts are not as unified as some here would like to belive they are made up of a number of independent entities, Ifka-Xalin, Al-Furqan, Chircolle and so on. If Xasan Dahir becomes stuborn, then so be it there are other even more powerful players in the various courts.

 

The TFG should avoid the warlords altogether including, Inda cade, Goobale and concentrate on dealing with the heads of the courts, business community and hold open and constructive negotiations with the clans of Mogadishu in order to bring peace and security and restore its status as the centre of the Somali world.

 

In Lebenon Hizbullah are in the Parliment, Palastine has Hamas in government and even the banned Muslim Brotherhood are playing a role in Egyptian politics. Why should our TFG not have representatives of the powerful and pupular courts from Mogadishu? .

[Castro]

Indeed there are historical and current precedents to our case. May be this is an example of how we need to look at the government of Somaliland and see how the Islamic groups are incorporated in that system of governance.

[General Duke]

^^^ Maybe, but there is no movement of the power or influance in Somaliland or in Puntland that compares to the Courts in Mogadishu. The courts and the religious movement in Xamar are very popular. They are the key to opening up the city. The religious groups are serious and reasonable.

 

This battle for Mogadishu has shown how out of touch the warlords have become and how weak all the armed groups in Mogadishu are.

 

This strengthens the [TFG] as they are not faced with anything resembling a millitary army.

Thus it will only be a short time before it is recognised the strongest millitary player in the country...

[xiinfaniin]

To incorporate Islamic courts in to the government requires a political conviction, and can’t be done out of convenience. As long Ina Yusuf is beholden to Ethiopia to the degree we are all witnessing (can’t even fire these renegade warlords from his cabinet), the chances of this government succeeding is indeed very slim.