What went wrong?

[Didi Kong]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

Here you can sense where I am going with this. I do not believe their defeat had anything to do with any theological standing of theirs. Instead I think it came as a result of utter political and military failings. I am beginning to agree with NGONGE that icu were not cultured enough to decode current political goings of the region. They were simply new to this game. Their ambition of ridding what is current Somali ill of was not matched with the level of political competence such a task required. Decision-making powers seem to have not been concentrated in the right hands or if they were, whomever those hands might have belonged to, they were not making the right decisions. Theirs was analogous to a dizzied that came to the fork of a parting road and didn’t know which road to take: peace or war!

 

^^But again I am finding very difficult to reconcile that obvious fault with the caliber of the people who seemed to be running the show. The team that traversed in Arab capitals was the best Somalia could ever produce. Were they duped and led to say things that facts on the ground contradicted? Perhaps!

I think reasoning effectively becomes slightly problematic when one is in the habit of articulating their hearts desires as reality all the time. Lets Move On Buddy.

[Blessed]

Zafir is absolutely correct, victory is from Allah. As for your question Xiin, we can speculate and analyse till we're blue in the face but we don't have all the facts so utimately, only Allah knows.

 

I do want to share this hadith with you, it helps me deal with problems.

 

 

On the authority of Abu Hurairah that the Messenger of Allah, salAllahu alayhi wa salla, said: "Seek out that which benefits you,

seek help only from Allah and never say you can't do it.

 

"If any adversity comes to you, do not say: 'If I had only acted in such-and-such a way, it would have been such-and-such;' but instead, say: 'Allah has decreed (it) and what He willed, He has done,' for verily, (the word) (if)

opens the way for the work of Satan."

- Saheeh Muslim

[xiinfaniin]

^^That’s a timely and good hadith yaa Aaminah! I do think however that if previous mistakes are to be avoided we need to examine what went wrong. We don’t know what went wrong, that much is true, but we need to inquire and examine why things totally have gone down the way they did.

 

Geel_jire, I take and accept your subtle point about people not being onboard with icu agenda. I also agree with you that banning qaat was a misplaced effort.

 

1 down. 1 to go. I will wait where you go with your second point.

[S.O.S]

Xiinfaniin, dear brother,

 

I haven't read your points (lack of time), but did so with much attention to the title you gave this thread, and I can only come to one conclusion:

 

Nothing went wrong, in fact, I could argue the opposite if I only had more time to do so

[xiinfaniin]

SOS, come back brother and please explain to us how 'nothing went wrong'. That’s quite an astonishing statement to make.

[S.O.S]

Brother Xinfaniin, first of all let me apologise for not replying sooner, I'm at the moment preoccupied with too many things. Also, I sincerely hope that this is not going to be one of those "let's agree not to agree" scenarios again as was the case last time we discussed the course of the Islamic Courts!

 

Again I failed to read your comments, but found the title you gave this thread more than qualified, in relation to my statement, to conduct a serious challenge (unqualified admittedly with reference to my answer) on the presupposition of your question (i.e. something went wrong). Now let me present you first with the rationale of my thinking in relation to this cause célèbre ensue the military setback of the courts and you be the judge afterwards. There are three options that can be derived from the title of this thread, knowing you , there's only one option for me to answer and dismiss the other two with ease.

 

One thing you cannot possibly be saying is that they didn't win, therefore something went wrong (option 1). I think that your analytical mind leaves you with many doubts as to the necessity of the war that had occurred and induces you to suspect that it might have been avoidable all together, was it not for the ill-advised ranks among the leadership of the courts (option 2). I will come back to that shortly in detail, as I assume to be the only option fitting of your intelligence, but on the list of "logic" options deductible from the title, one more suggestion remains: namely, the uberhaupt existence of the Islamic Courts with their ideological standing and ambition was a provocation for a war in essence (option 3).

 

To answer option 2, we need to ask ourselves this question: Were the Islamic Courts ever in a negotiating position to avert the war from happening? If the answer to that is yes, then we can conclude that something went wrong. However, I do not accept that to be the case. The full-scale invasion of Ethiopian army was planned in the first month after the birth of the Islamic Courts while they were still confined within Muqdisho, let alone their subsequent assuming of power in many places outside the capital. Numerous mainstream media sources in the UK (who also directly participated in that war and indeed continue to do so along with many other European countries for that matter) have already reported that the United States masterminded and planned with Ethiopia the war in Somalia as far back as July/August 2006 on the back of then a humiliating defeat of US backed warlords by the courts. That's an open secret reported in The Independent and the Guardian newspapers, Channel 4 did a better job by obtaining the minutes taken at that meeting outlining the agreement between the two countries. The delay in the execution was the result of Allah opening the sky with heavy rains which flooded many parts of the country (to what purpose will become clear shortly).

 

In fact, I was in Ethiopia in July 2006 travelling on land for more than 1000 km by bus and sometimes even by foot, and I can attest to the fact that Ethiopia went to war back in July 2006 judging by the movement of huge numbers military personnel and equipment towards the border of Somalia. I remember one morning walking from Jigjiga to Qabribayax just after praying Salatul-Fajr, when I saw more than 100 cargo and army personnel trucks full of soldiers, equipments and heavy artillery headed towards Somalia. I managed to get a lift from Qabribayax and arrived in Dhagaxbuur later that day where the convoy also passed through; I knew then that Ethiopia was preparing for war. If I knew in my private capacity, the Islamic Courts must have known that too in their organisational capacity, and all indicates that they knew very well.

 

Many things will become irrelevant with that presupposition, but let me give you another one. Ethiopia was planning for many years to invade and occupy Somalia even before the rise of the courts, it only happened ahead of their agenda. They showed a lot of patience, perseverance and painful determination in their efforts to fertilise the soil before they could sow anything. They succeeded in the creation of chaos, killing and mayhem among the less receptive regions of their domination by funding warlords. Imagine that the Islamic Courts had never been there, how do you think people would have reacted upon the sight of Ethiopian troops arriving on their tanks in Muqdisho, claiming to be bringing peace, stability and security to Somalia; how many people would have believed and supported them? Instead Allah (swt) in His Mercy decreed to ruin their evil plans by showing THE solution, an alternative path to salvation and justice, to purity and tranquillity, in short, to Allah (swt) and His Messenger (saw). In light to my latter presupposition of stretching the timescale in order to increase the significance value of my answer to your question, far from concluding that something went wrong; I choose to conclude the opposite

 

Before I go any further, I'll give you the chance to challenge and dismiss all of the above...

[xiinfaniin]

You’re brilliant observer adeer but I do have my questions on these very presuppositions of yours! I have just seen this and cant write my response now so I will come back IA yaa Shamsi.

[xiinfaniin]

Shamsiyow, when I say something went wrong I really mean it. Something went wrong in early 90s and something went wrong in the last battle! I liked your observation of an imminent war in your ‘capacity as a private’ citizen and if indeed Courts leadership knew all about this and chose to face the knife so to speak without reasonable attempt to avoid it, I must conclude the opposite of what you have thus far concluded. Something went wrong that is! When your military intelligence tells you that a nation is in a clear war footing and it’s within your domain of knowledge that particular nation hardly does anything without west’s help and diplomatic approval, then you are expected to make a rational choice.

 

Look yaa Shamsi, how could it be a sensible choice to go to a war in four different fronts given Courts logistical reach? Perhaps some wanted to just do and die. That’s all good and dandy—not to mention it has a clear religious ground. But that’s not what I wanted. I wanted them to win. And to win, yaa Shamsi, one needs to plan accordingly! Whatever the cause of the setback was, that plan for victory was missing---and that’s where my complaint lies bro.

 

Setbacks are clearly universal experience. It happened to the Prophet (scw) and his companions. The battle of UHUD is a case in point. It was the premature rush to the spoils and the booty of the masrackah (amongst other widely discussed reasons) that turned Muslim’s early victory into a crippling defeat that threatened Prophet’s life. The Battle of Hunayn was another example where elation and unmeasured enthusiasm risked defeat of the Muslim army. When these sorts of things happened, Quran was not silent about it. Indeed it discussed the reasons that caused it and gave instructions of how to avoid the repeat of the same mistake. Today we don’t have the advantage of the revealing verses that the early Muslims had to instantly expose and pinpoint our exact errors in our proceedings. We do however have our reasoning, and in our case, the benefit of hindsight! Based on those two, there were some fundamental flaws in Courts policy formulation saaxiib.

 

In the fear of this thing looking a thinly veiled blame game, though, let me shift gears and push the discussion into a positive terrain; given your insightful trip to the land of the muqaawamah what would you say the learned lessons are yaa Shamsi? Where should we go from here? What were the missing ingredients for a full success to have been attained?

[S.O.S]

Brother Xiinfaniin, let's not yet mix the actual battles that took place with the events that lead to the war. The examples cited in your post only refer to the war, its technicalities and deliverance, and not dare I say, the prelude thereof! You ask "how could it be a sensible choice to go to a war in four different fronts given Courts logistical reach?" Again let me repeat the central presupposition referring to the inevitably of the war irrespective of whatever sensible choices made by the courts. It was simply not their choice. Accordingly I opine that they tried by all means to prevent a full war from happening. They made long nights on many flights trying to reason with mindless puppets who don't think for themselves, presenting only the shameless dictums of their of their masters. I don't have to tell how no efforts were spared to invest time and energy in the public relations exercise, both domestically and diplomatically. Even "cut out the middleman" strategy was adopted and tested with Ethiopia (United States played deaf and then produced a dodgy dossier through the UN), and it became clear they were intend upon stifling any productive attempts to settle the issue peacefully vide the presupposition. If any, the courts were guilty of wasting too much valuable time with preventing an inevitable war. What rational choice did they fail to make, I ask you!?

 

Of course the option of unconditional surrender was on table as demanded by Ethiopia in their last face-to-face meeting, which included full denunciation of all our irredentist historical rights to occupied territories, distancing from the central religious ambition to self-determination per rule by the Qur'an and Sunnah, full disarmament and acceptance of Ethiopia troops occupying Somalia. That was the only other alternative choice available, and I really mean it when I say death is a more honourable rational choice. As Shakespeare ones wrote:

 

If we are mark'd to die, we are enow

To do our country loss; and if to live,

The fewer men, the greater share of honour.

God's will! I pray thee, wish not one man more.

 

I have no doubt that you "wanted them to win" but winning is costly in terms of lives, time and material; let's not judge in haste without paying the price and conclude that all is lost.

 

given your insightful trip to the land of the muqaawamah what would you say the learned lessons are yaa Shamsi? Where should we go from here? What were the missing ingredients for a full success to have been attained?

You're aware of more than anyone else that the courts rose on the back of oppression and proxy wars initiated by external powers which made life near impossible, and as a reaction, provoked a social/popular movement which grew into previously unimaginable magnitude. Similarly, the Ittixaad movement of the 90's was born out of necessity after the Americans and others under the guise of UN flags were occupying Somalia. Many people erroneously assume that it was Caydiid and his intoxicated militia who heroically fought the Americans single-handedly. In fact, the men who fought most fiercely were not under narcotics and later became the heartbeat of the before mentioned movement; again a necessary reaction to an oppression which lead to events that's history now. Soon there'll be an even bigger movement than the two previous movements, as each is improved by a factor of porportionate increase in experience and lessons learned which's going to thrive on the next reactionary conditions. One thing is for sure, it's a mater of time; another thing is for sure too, the so-called TFG will never succeed!

 

The Ethiopians can't even rule the ****** region where in many parts that I've been to, the ONLF was ruling during the night and the "Wayano" only seemed to rule during the day by fear. The MJXSG was growing and the number of ONLF resistance fighters doubled in the short period that I was there. I cannot think of a situation where Ethiopia is still together as a country in its current form and shape, and with its current policies towards Somalia for many years to come. Provided of course, that we get our acts together very soon (we should discuss that from now on).

[xiinfaniin]

^^Brother SOS, you are not alone in the belief that nothing went wrong in the last battle! I can clearly see your conviction of the righteousness of what has transpired. Although I am not that far from you in principle I do firmly believe that last war was fought and lost in a rushed manner! I share your optimism however and things will, in the end, be favorable for Somalis IA.

 

How should we proceed about exacting a lasting resolution to our crisis? Someone needs to speak and tackle that.

 

But as a side note, I think waddaads need a political paradigm shift in terms of confronting Somalia’s external enemies (obviously it was an external enemy that which caused this setback). If anything is learned from these setbacks it’s that one cant fight without the support of own populace! Wars are won not only by the righteous men who lead it but also, and primarily at that, by the execution of the laymen who fight it. In today’s global village, one also needs to establish alliances and engage mutual dealings to engage and sustain resistance of any sort. The Somali case is simple yet complex. People, generally speaking, are cultivated and ready to accept a genuine leadership. The Muslim world is fairly educated about our plight. Our enemies are clinging to incompetent and despised men who have no credibility whatsoever to revive Somalia again. While all of that is true the tribal nature of our societies and the deep mistrust between them seems to work against the good we desire and gives our enemy the edge it so badly needs. It’s my belief therefore that any genuine movement that aims high in its political outlook must consider the segmented and clannish political settings of our people in order for it to succeed.

 

Midda kale, there’s a great lesson to learn from our Prophet’s political wisdom in sheltering the munaafiqs and including them in his camp without giving them a real role in his political formulations. So clearly there could be a balanced approach in considering our clannish settings and keeping the credibility of the sahwa untainted!

 

But as you know we only talk and hardly do the hard work these kind of noble goals require.

 

Waryaa usoo baxay?

[Fabregas]

Abu Mansuur Roobow, said some people where stealing the technicals of the wadaads.Therefore clearly something went wrong with the use of clan militias.The I.C.U could not prevent people from joining their militias if they pledged their allegiance to them.Remember that during the Prophet saw, ALLAH swt sent down revelations concerning the danger the munafiquun posed. One can conceal their inner beliefs, therefore the I.C.U couldn't check the hearts of men.During the time of Salhudiin, some of the Ulema ran away when they saw the army of the crusaders.Of course they made good excuses for their acts.In the long run the losses of these types of people is beneficial for the Muslims.

 

However, to me this is the sunnah of Allah. Allah swt was distinguishing the true believers from the Munafiquun and exposed them in the heat of the moment.Allah swt also made apparent to us those among us, who are the enemy of his Deen.Furthermore, one should not consider military setbacks as longterm defeats, rather only temporary setbacks.Perhaps Allah swt was indeed testing the sabr of the Believers as he tested the generations before them.If you read the ahadith of the Prophet you will see many great pains and tribulations ahead of this Ummah.These great pains will give birth to the final victory and this is part of ones faith in ALLAH swt.

[Abu-Salman]

First and foremost, the most positive ICU legacy is that now everyone can compare for himself the ICU and post-ICU period, the latter characterized rightly as a return to the chaotic devolutionary cycle (warlordism, opportunism, corruption, divisions along clan lines ect).

 

Hence, Muslims (and even non-Muslims), accross races and countries, have witnessed for themselves the incalculable benefits of Shariah rule.

 

In that light, Ethiopian occupation coupled with the return of warlord terrorism and corruption could actually be the most potent mean of mobilization against the anti-Islamic forces.

 

Furthermore, the war exposed the true intents and agendas of everyone concerned, thus clarifying things for the ignorant mass manipulated by clanish propaganda.

 

That is why I conclude, too, that nothing went wrong in final analysis...

[xiinfaniin]

^^All of that may be true and I certainly pray these setbacks are short-term corrective measures that are exacted by Allah to prepare us for the next victory. That however does not answer the question I posed: what went wrong? Unless you are prepared to argue that what happened was not a failure or defeat at all, I expect you to present some sort of assignable causes that could be attributed to our recent shortcomings! We can turn our setbacks in to victory by changing our attitudes and right our wrongs. We can’t however present our vast retreat as a divine win, methinks!

 

I don’t claim to have the ability, spiritual or otherwise, to decode Allah’s wisdom that’s manifested in the worldly challenges we face both as individuals, or, collectively, as an ummah! In my personal life, I do observe my failings and try to assign them to the correct source. Without such a process of cause and effect I would probably find all events quite dull and uninteresting. It defeats the purpose of being mukalif if you can’t recognize and reason with your failure. When confronted with unusual lethargy in memory, Al Shaafici, it was reported, complained to his mentor (cant remember the relationship correctly) :

شكوت إلي وكيع بسؤ حفظي فأرشدني إلي ترك المعاصي

وأخبرني بأن العلم نور ونورألله لايعطى لعاص

His mentor has pointed the source of Al Shaafici’s sluggish memory and counseled him to refrain from the mini sins. And the cure, or so the story goes, was found for Al Shaafic’s little setback in achieving his academic goal.

 

Now does it not strike as a sign of laziness yaa jamaacah to easily explain away such a grand failure (icu’s failure)? As the intellectual pens of this sahwah, we should perhaps be more courageous in admitting failures when they occur, and shun this group-thinking tendency! Implicit in the assertion of ‘nothing went wrong’ is the danger of repeating same mistakes and adopting strategies that might’ve caused our setbacks in the first place!

 

Do you see my point?

[Fabregas]

Xiin, my greatest is hint is that there were too many ideological groups such as Ikhwani, Salafi,Takfiri, Clan Militia, Itixaad and so on so forth.

 

How can you trust a man who won't even pray behind you?

 

 

I read an interview a while back about one the of the boys that partcipated.His words where:

 

"There was a lack of cordination and "we had bad people, thugs working for us".

 

If i find it i'll try to post!

[Abu-Salman]

Xiin, I do share your concerns and it is obvious that just too many things went wrong, or were so from the beginning; what I was focusing on was the final outcome instead.

 

Nevertheless, I've enumerated Bid'a groups such as Sufis, who disregards even basic Tawhid more often than not, Qutbi influenced individuals with Qutbi being accused of not placing Ibaada as the supreme duty of every living soul in contradiction with the Ayaa that says "I didn't create Jinns and Humans for any other purpose than to worship me " and finally takfiiris "everyone-is-kaafir-save-us" who won't pray behind you, as the main non-Salafis forces (from salafs, which means followers of the salafs or early followers of the prophets scw, so Salafi are sinonymous with Sunnist or the prophet's Sunnah observers).

 

Of course, underneath the Islamic reasons of the disaster, we can examine the practical causes, namely dissensions in terms of both vision and strategy which resulted in conflicting leaderships, impulsivity, ect with all its consequences on the negociation process or ultimately battlefield.

 

We can comment for a long time on all these causes: in psychological terms, a group take more risks than separate individuals as it is inherently convinced that the "group can't be wrong" (japanese during the Second World War, for instance) or maybe that Indhacade was suffering from ADD hyperactivity syndroms with his rather impulsive ultimatum to Addis.

Of course, it doesn't take an expert also to know that an organized army is more efficient than heterogeneous groups with, moreover, internal dissensions ect

 

Sometimes, I wonder how with such fundamental differences and dubious associates, the ICU could actually have achieved more...