The Penultimate Contention for power in Somalia

[NASSIR]

The Penultimate Contention for power in Somalia

By: Abdalla A. Hirad

October 11, 2006

 

 

Cynicism about the Somali politics has been growing for decades. It has, however, reached its highest in the new contention for national power between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC). Skepticism about the TFG ever attaining control and jurisdiction over the entire land is only matched by a growing pessimism about the onslaught of a Taliban-like regime by the Islamists. Neither view has totally; however, made one side a winner over the other as far as public perception is concerned—not yet any way.

 

What is more worrisome is the spin things could take, now that the Islamists have moved on to take over the city of Kismayo, 500 Km to the South of Mogadishu. Suddenly, the situation has a recognizable ring to it—one that is unforgettable to those who are old enough to remember the nature of the conflict in the early nineteen nineties. The move to capture Kismayo by the Islamists in an invasion from Mogadishu suddenly connotes a reincarnation of the early 1990s scenario of the civil war. All of a sudden, the CIC has come to be, wrongly or rightly, perceived as “the†‘Haw-iye Islamists’, as personified by Hassan Dahir Aweys and Sheik Sharif Ahmed—that is, as against, if you will, the ‘Darrods’, symbolized, for example, by Colonel Hiraale who has been chased away from Kismayo and by President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, the President of the TFG.

 

Ever since the “Ha-wiye Islamistsâ€, took control of Mogadishu from their cousin warlords, earlier, this year, in June, they have expanded their control as far north as places on the same latitude as Galakayo and as far south as Kismayo. That is, despite the fact that they had earlier declared that they recognize the TFG, and despite their assurances to the world that they would not extend their jurisdiction beyond Mogadishu. Also, despite their expanded control, it has not added to their legitimacy as the government de jure of Somalia. At best, they have become a regional administration similar to those that have already existed in other regions. And, although nobody knows where the Islamists are going with this after the fall of Kismayo, and pending the resumption of the Arab League-brokered talks; for now, there seems to be an impasse prevailing in the political situation.

 

The way things are today, neither side has the upper hand, politically speaking. The CIC controls parts of the south that have never been in the TFG’s hands. That includes Kismayo which is the latest town which has supposedly changed hands. However, Kismayo was already in the hands of a coalition of warlords who were, by default, already sympathetic to the CIC because of their kin and kith relations with the Ha-wiye Islamists. Remember? The Mogadishu Islamists are but Ha-wiye in clerics’ clothes. So, with the flight or withdrawal—depending on who you speak to—of Barre Hiiraale, the beleaguered Defense Minister-cum-warlord, Kismayo fell into the hands of the Ha-wiye Islamist’s flank. As of that moment, the situation begs analysts and observers to conclude that only a military showdown could make the winner of one or the other side—the Ha-wiye Islamists or the TFG, that is. God forbid—I should hastily add. The prize will be either that the Ha-wiye Islamists capture Baidoa; or that the TFG takes over Mogadishu from them, which is more unlikely than the other way round. But, for now, the Ha-wiye Islamists have the upper hand as far as propaganda goes; and, particularly, with the BBC Somali Service and a host of Ha-wiye media outlets entirely behind them, in their support.

As of the moment, it seems, when the CIC took over the reign of Kismayo, the political situation has changed color, if not texture, because it may have evolved from a conflict denominated by ideologies—i.e., theocratic versus secular, as has been understood until recently—into a situation of an inter-clan warfare. It may be a prelude to a repetition of that earlier page of the Somali civil war. The reader may remember that, after the fall of Barre’s regime in 1991, the Ha-wiye clan, organized under the Banner of the United Somali Congress (USC) had driven out most non-Ha-wiye Somalis, and most pointedly the Darrod, from Mogadishu southwards and westwards. The Darrod had a little respite in Kismayo before they were further driven across the border with Kenya and Ethiopia. No sooner than they succeeded in removing most Darrod from Mogadishu than the USC, under the leadership of General Aideed, first pushed northwards until they met resistance in Galkayo. Then, Aideed pushed southwards and westwards until he drove what he then called the “leftovers of Barre’s regime†out of Somalia.

 

 

When Aideed had finally driven out his enemies, the Darrod, as he saw things at the time, out of the borders, he disappeared for three months, during the spring/summer of 1992, keeping everybody wondering where he was or what he was doing! Rumors had spread that Aideed had died in the last battle for Gedo, or that he was ill or injured—even that he went wacky by some irresponsible speculative accounts. However, as transpired later, he had only just realized that he needed people from the other Somali clans, for him to be able to establish a government in Somalia. It was very confusing to people, specially his supporters, when they heard that he was waiting for some leaders of the then SSDF like Mohamed Abshir Haamaan and/or Abdullahi Yusuf, the current President of the TFG, among others, to join him there so that they could discuss arrangements for forming a government between them. For some, it was even laughable, as I witnessed it in those days, but it was the only way for Aideed to achieve his goal—albeit that he realized that too late. By then, Aideed had done too much damage across the clan divide to earn political allies across the fence soon enough.

 

 

Then the two USC wings started fighting between themselves under the leadership of General Mohamed Farah Aideed and Mr. Ali Mahdi Mohamed, as the two main protagonists, over the control of Mogadishu. By then, General Aideed’s side had control over the whole triangle between Mogadishu, Kismayo and Baidoa, emasculating the community in the whole area, to a point where he had induced a man-made famine, which brought about the launching of Operation Restore Hope, and later, UNOSOM and UNOSOM II.. History seems to be repeating itself under the leadership of Hassan Dahir Aweys and Sheik Sharif Ahmed, respectively re-enacting the roles of Aideed and Ali Mahdi, to such a precision that Hassan Dahir Aweys like his closer cousin, General Aideed, before him is more of a bitter radical than Sheik Sharif Ahmed who is a more relaxed moderate, like his closer cousin, Ali Mahdi, before him.

 

 

Now that the Ha-wiye Islamists have captured Mogadishu, and all places south of Galakayo down to Kismayo, today, all indications point to the likelihood that they will this time around, also, try to capture Baidoa—and in the name of Islam. If they do, this will bring Somali history a full circle into those days of the early nineties. The rest is easily predictable. However, the capture of Kismayo, and Baidoa, may never give the Ha-wiye Islamists any jurisdiction over the whole country, as indeed was also the case in the old factual scenario. General Aideed’s experience should, therefore, teach us a vivid lesson. That is, indeed, if the Ha-wiye Islamists are aiming at gaining national control, they should seek power through negation before it is too late!

 

 

If the Ha-wiye Islamists are organized under the leadership of Mr. Hassan Dahir Aweys to re-enact General Aideed’s role, in the tribal context of Somalia, President Abdullahi Yusuf is seen in the same light as President Mohamed Siyad Barre, of those days, by Hassan Dahir Aweys and many in his ranks and supporters. It is immaterial that Abdullahi Yusuf had fought President Barre first, as he usually gloats about. It is immaterial that he now leads a multi-clan edifice that includes all Somalis—from all clans and political denominations—including the Ha-wiye who has its equitable share in the Parliament and the Cabinet of the TFG. The fact that he was not allowed to come back to Mogadishu on the strength of the Embagathi agreement has been telling. By contrast, the warm welcome given to Mr. Abdiqassim Salad Hassan—a Ha-wiye leader, and a former Barre Minister—as president on the strength of the Arta Conference of 2000, only says tons of words about the difference in which each of the two men is held in esteem in Mogadishu and its Ha-wiye rulers, past and present. So much for Somaalinimo—shall we say?

 

 

Now that Kismayo has fallen in the hands of the Ha-wiye Islamist’s flank, Barre Hiiraale and company may be goaded to join the TFG flank. In the mean time, the TFG with a small rag tag army may be compelled to defend itself against a sure-to-come attack from the Ha-wiye Islamists, or may even attack to preempt such an attack by the other side. Hence, the war between the Ha-wiye Islamists and the TFG army led by Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, the President of the TFG, will only symbolize the repeat of war between the Ha-wiye and the Darrod in circumstances not unlike those of the early nineteen nineties. Whether that is true in reality or not is irrelevant. In politics, perception, even if false, seems to fill in a void. And in the absence of any sensible cause for war the reality is only void.

 

 

Personal vendetta may also be another reason why war may be unavoidable. Believe it or not! Hassan Dahir Aweys and Abdullahi Yusuf are not strangers to each other in the murky waters of the Somali civil war. Hassan Dahir Aweys was the Commander of the militia of the Itihad Al-Islami which had started some skirmishes in Galakayo in the spring of 1992. Abdullahi Yusuf, then the Chairman of the Emergency Commission of the SSDF, rebuffed that war by chasing the militia of Al-itihad to Bossasso in the coast of the Gulf of Aden and, later, to Laskoreh to the west of Bossasso, where they were besieged by a local army led by Colonel Abdullahi Ahmed Jama (Ilko-jeer), and who later negotiated a save passage for the Islamists from Laskoreh. If Hassan Dahir Aweys was the military commander of Al-Itihad in those days, a certain Sh. Ali Warsame of Burao, now suddenly surfacing up in Mogadishu a few weeks back, was the spiritual leader of the Group. Hassan Dahir Aweys was said to be, in later days, fighting alongside General Mohamed Farah Aideed, against UNOSOM and the American forces who were trying to arrest the General. If Hassan Dahir Aweys is re-enacting the role of General Aided, by default or by design, Abdullahi Yusuf is re-enacting the role of Mohamed Siyad Barre, in the new situation—and that is how it is seen by many.

 

 

The new situation makes a mockery of the whole history of the Somali civil war and particularly all those efforts spent on reconciliation during those 14 plus conferences, the latest of which has been that which was concluded in Nairobi in October of 2004, after two complete years of deliberations. Alas! We Somalis should learn from this history. That our political elite have not learnt from the lessons of the past is unfair to the people of Somalia who have been riding that very speedy roller coaster between war and unyielding efforts at peace and reconciliation throughout the good part of two decades. It is especially unfair to the people of the South of Somalia, who have only just begun to see some respite from oppression and occupation in some parts. Therefore, the repetition of starvation, similar to that of 1992, because of war induced famine is one too many. The reoccupation of the normally non-militarized defenseless people of those parts is one too many. The requirement for a renewed RRA struggle is one too many. The influx of refugees across the border with Kenya—currently estimated, by the UNHCR, at 1000 persons a day—is one situation too many for the helpless populace of Mogadishu and the Deep South. For the whole nation to go through another round of costly reconciliation efforts similar to those of Arta and Embagathi is one too many.

However, there is a crucial way in which the situation is different from that of the nineteen nineties. First of all, unlike the war of those days, in which a USC was chasing out what they then called the “leftovers of Barre’s regimeâ€, today, the Ha-wiye Islamists are engaged in a power contention for national control as against the TFG. The prize is also different. It is either that Mogadishu falls or that Baidoa falls for either of the two sides to win. If Baidoa falls it means that the people of the south of Somalia and especially those of Baidoa prefer the Islamists to the TFG. If, however, Mogadishu falls—which, again, is more unlikely than the opposite—the people of Somalia, and especially the Ha-wiye, prefer the TFG to the CIC. But the two results are also significantly different in one other way. If Mogadishu falls, there is a shred of a chance that Somalia may pull out of the civil war sooner, God and the Ha-wiye populace permitting! If, however, Baidoa falls, Somalia can only sink deeper into a more drastic civil war than ever before, without hope for reconciliation anytime soon, if at all. See my earlier article:â€Somalia is Gone for good unless, …â€, posted in WardheerNews.com, Hiiraan.com and many more websites.

 

 

However, it would be prudent on the part of all if the war and its historically recorded negative ramifications, as per the earlier scenario, could be totally avoided. That can happen by merely pausing to learn from history. It must also be realized that a failure of Hassan Dahir Aweys and Sheik Sharif to negotiate “… while the sun shines†can only yield the same result which Aideed had. It was too late for him to obtain allies across the tribal divides. That will also happen to them if they fail to negotiate now. I therefore, hope that the good Sheiks will rather resume negotiation than keep on posturing and procrastinating for gaining more power. “Hunguri wax ka weyn la geliyaa waa dillaacaaâ€, as per the popular Somali maxim.

 

 

Finally, I call this contention “penultimate†because purely tribal warfare is hardly the way to win final battles or a political contention to restore a State. Therefore, there has got to be another contention, albeit a more peaceful one, if Somalia is to be built from its ruins—only one which, perhaps, is more sensible and more decisive than what we have witnessed so far

 

 

Abdalla A. Hirad

E-Mail:MHirad@aol.com

 

 

URL=http://www.wardheernews.com/Articles_06/October/11_pentultimate_contention_for_power.html]Wardheer[/url]

[NASSIR]

Scoundrels, Zealots and Progressives

By: Abdulkadir J. Dualeh

October 11, 2006

 

When the public mind becomes muddled by hardships due to breakdown of social order, three types of characters calmly emerge out of the confusion and channel public passions for their ambitions. I call these three characters: the Scoundrel, the Zealot and the Progressive.

 

For my amusement and in the hope of shedding some light on the nature of these characters, so you may better identify them, I put forward the following descriptions and illustrations of each.

 

Scoundrels / Opportunist

 

Scoundrels have no faith in any thing but power in their hands and money in their pockets. The sole ideology of a scoundrel is that all men are inherently and incurably wicked and untrustworthy. They use deception, intrigue and, if necessary, brute force to achieve their ends. For them, politics is a game with winners and losers. Success is measured by the effectiviness of their deception. They have no long-term vision. Because they are narrow minded and shallow, the fail to comprehend that their offspring will share the misery of the society they destroy. More important for them than the fate of their offspring is how well they flattered in a cocktail party.

 

How does the scoundrel eat your lunch, leave you hungry and then magically channels your wrath at your equally hungry neighbor? I will enumerate some of his tools and techniques for you following my description of the other two characters

 

Zealots

While scoundrels lack faith, Zealots have too much faith. This group includes tribalists, communists, anarchists and idealists and hot heads of all sort. They are usually well meaning and highly devoted to a cause. They are single minded.

 

Their favorite phrase is: you are with us or against us. Their predictions are dire and exagerated. The source of their doctrine is usually a misunderstood holy book, poem,traditional culture, half backed ideologies of all sorts. They are susceptible to the machinations of charlatans and demagogues.

 

How do Zealots dupe so many to do their bidding. They quote selectively and out of context certain lines and phrases from a valued source. They substitute generality for detail. They terrorize those who question their logic. In their discussions and debates, they ignore the truth that all doctrine, no matter how perfect in theory, must be executed and implemented in practice by potentially corruptible human beings. Instead of addressing this deficiency, they will simply tell you “ it won’t happenâ€. Like the Ostrich that buries its head in the sand rather than face an unpleasant situation, the Zealot, conveniently and foolishly, blinds himself to the practical consequences of his convictions.

 

3) Progressives

Progressives are in the middle. Unlike the zealots who love theory and ideology, and unlike scoundrels who are opportunists, progressives unify all knowledge, combine it into whole and use as a guide to test and discover new knowledge. They are prudent, sensible, careful and methodical. They study, comprehend, digest and absorb (not just swallow whole like a dumb shark) information from multiple sources.

 

Progressives recognize that human beings are fallible and potentially corruptible by power, greed, pride, envy and so on. They take in to account this dark aspect of human nature and separate the theory of the dogma from the practice of the dogma. They accept the need for a moral foundation as a general guide and moral compass, but they also set up separate, detailed sets of practical rules and regulations designed to prevent the human tendency to corrupt any system. The net result is a system that trusts its leaders but also has a practical mechanism for catching the crooked ones.

 

In more vivid terms, I illustrate the nature of these characters as follows:

 

Favorite Fabrics: Scoundrels like wool and silk and dress like high-priced prostitutes. Zealots prefer polyester with non-descript, bland color. Progressives prefer high quality nylon dyed with graceful and inspiring colors.

 

Scoundrels use fragrance, breath mint and spray. Progressives value personal hygiene, showers, toothpaste, brush etc. Zealots are divided on this issue.

Scoundrels are hustlers – they beg, pan handle and constantly seek foreign aid, an euphemism for begging. Progressives are self reliant, dignified and frugal. Zealots are too busy giving speeches to hungry people, they do not have time for economic issues.

 

Favorite metal: Scoundrels love gold. Zealots love Lead. Progressives love Copper.

 

Favorite animals: Scoundrels like foxes and hyenas (cheats and scavengers). Zealots like horses (colorful and majestic and good for war, otherwise useless). Progressives like donkies, sheep and goats.

Favorite food: Scoundrels like half-done red meat from baby animals. Zealots like boiled corn. Progressives crave balance diet and prepare their meat well done.

What they read: Progressives study religious books, scientific books, and books about philosophy. Zealots misread, misunderstand and misquote any book they read. Scoundrels do not read. They get their information second hand or hire speechwriters to supply them with political speeches and clichés.

 

How do Scoundrels maintain power: They dispense alcoholic beverages, psychedelic drugs, candy, titles, etc to potential adversaries and imprison those who stay sober or refuse to accept the crumps. Zealots imprison the whole society in the boundaries of the country.

The chief Zealot carries a pistol or a whip. The chief scoundrel does not carry a weapon but keeps an unsavory character with a shotgun behind his chair in the meeting room. Progressives keep a wise person around.

 

 

Zealots are earnest and sensitive; scoundrels are cunning and viscous; progressives are intelligent, cool headed and dedicated.

Scoundrels and zealots are pessimist and fear mongers; progressives are optimists.

Scoundrels and zealots are both elitists. They think their judgment is superior to the collective judgment of the masses. Progressives are not so rash - they value collective, steady deliberations.

 

Scoundrels have no conscience. Zealots have guilty conscience. Progressive have a balanced mind.

 

Scoundrels like red carpets. Zealots like straw mats. Progressives like floor cushions.

Scoundrels like glamour, pomp, ceremony, parades, and multi- colored flags, solemn processions. Zealots are unostentatious.

 

Scoundrels use titles like: his Excellency, his majesty. Zealots prefer: his holiness, supreme leader, chairman.

 

Scoundrels like load noise. Progressive like music and enjoy good lyrics. Zealots prefer silence.

 

What are their tools: for Scoundrels, it deception, treachery, and intrigue. For zealots, it is force and revolution. For progressives, it is deliberation, compromise and evolution.

 

Zealots hate debates and nuance. They trivialize the profound and love generalities. Scoundrels complicate the trivial with protocols and paperwork. They love clichés.

 

Scoundrels hijack and then debase and demean valuable concepts and terms, such as sovereignty and patriotism, religion, until the words lose their meaning and impact and people become disillusioned.

Scoundrels and zealots breed misery and woe. Progressives work for the wellbeing and joy of the society.

 

Who do they consider sovereign: Scoundrels believe “the state†is sovereign. Zealots think “the ideology†is supreme. Progressives believe the people are sovereign and human dignity is supreme.

 

In conclusion: Now that I have blown some steam and vented all that bent-up negative feelings out of my system, let me say few positive words.

 

Providence rarely affords a generation of a society with the opportunity to completely and thoroughly remake themselves on new and firm foundations. It offered this unique opportunity to the German people after Hitler; it offered to the Japanese people after the “divine†Hirohito was vanquished; like wise for the United States people after their revolution against the British. These successful nations, revamped the organization of their societies and wrote a new and practical constitution and statues that borrowed from, and incorporated, all of man’s knowledge from all time. They built new nations dedicated to liberty, fraternity, law, learning, progress and LEADERS ACCOUNTIBLE TO THE ONLY SOVREIGN - THE PEOPLE.

 

Fate now affords the Somali people a similar opportunity. They can play the role of the wise men and women who founded those nations and earn the eternal gratitude of their posterity or they can meanly lose this opportunity by indulging the darker aspects of their nature.

 

Abdulkadir J. Dualeh

E-Mail:abdulkadirdualeh2@yahoo.com

[General Duke]

The first one is too simplistic an argument.

[NASSIR]

What is the thesis of the first one Duke?

[NASSIR]

"What is more worrisome is the spin things could take, now that the Islamists have moved on to take over the city of Kismayo, 500 Km to the South of Mogadishu. Suddenly, the situation has a recognizable ring to it—one that is unforgettable to those who are old enough to remember the nature of the conflict in the early nineteen nineties"

 

 

I hope that makes an easy reading for you brother. You read too many unreliable news from clan websites.

[Taleexi]

Originally posted by General Duke:

The first one is too simplistic an argument.

In what sense I ask?

[NASSIR]

^Hi Mans, I think Duke inserts strayed and meaningless words. It is better to critique than dismiss an article wholeheartedly.

[Taleexi]

I agree.. Mr. Caamir

[General Duke]

Dear Caamir, I don’t plan to write long essays on every asinine essay posted on Somaliaonline. However I found the above article boring and simplistic. It provides no more than what we already knew. The courts are pushing the agenda of a specific clan and the TFG is seen to be doing the opposite. The comparison to 1991 further illustrates the lack of new material. I would liked the author to touch upon the contradiction within the two major clans in this conflict, for example not all the clans of Mogadishu are supporting the courts, some have become disenfranchised while others have become empowered. The military might of the courts is again exaggerated, a laymans assessment and nothing more.

[NASSIR]

If that is the case, a reminder of the past is a good call for all of us since the overwhelmingly new perception of the courts is positive. We can only learn from history and history repeats itself if we don't pay heed to it.

 

You have presented a personal case, a perspective view of the courts, but hardly do many folks share your sentiment or the uncertain outlook of this political trend. Xinfanin's recent of Slash and Burn is a good indicator of how things are changing and it seems he is taking prudent steps, probably recycling his past beliefs of them.

 

I wouldn't call such article demeaning words, for, you will make an asinine out of yourself. The above article's historical references befits the current situation and might further help foreign experts to prepare 'policy advisory notes'. The new materials are there, what is known to you might not be known to every one, and everyone does not sit behind screen every day to glean news from all sources, but what the author is doing is make analysis of the situation and where this could take us, for instance, the influx of refugees into the border, 1000 or more per day, is a good reminder of the 90s.

[NASSIR]

for all I know there is no bigger division among the clan-courts.

[General Duke]

I wouldn't call such article demeaning words, for, you will make an asinine out of yourself.

You have a point there. I will try to choose better words next time..

 

As for dividion, one is that many see the courts as beholden to the clan of Inda Cade and that has caused most of their set backs. For example the case of A/qaybdeed in South Mudug in which he has the support of the population. The North Mogadishu clan also belives it lost allot of influance and gained little, apart from the Caadani company the perception is they have lost much power, the governor/mayor Gaabow who supported the courts has been sidelined and many belive it is because of clan.

 

There is a lot of internal tension and contradiction within the clans that the courts represent. The author should have included this and the workings, structure.

[Alle-ubaahne]

Originally posted by General Duke:

The courts are pushing the agenda of a specific clan and the TFG is seen to be doing the opposite.

And the TFG is from our clan, the clan that loves Ethiopia more than anything else!

 

Give me credit for illaborating your point more clearly.

[General Duke]

lol. again you misundertsand the point. I will give you sufficient time to recover.

 

PS:

the clan that loves Ethiopia

why insult a whole clan? sad

[Alle-ubaahne]

^^I apologize if you took it wrongly. I am sure you and I know for sure that none of the somali tribes is predominantly pro-Ethiopian.

 

So, calm down, I meant to say Geedi and Abdullahi Yuusuf and their supporters as a new clan, among which you are a member off.