Puntland Will Secede -- if Yussuf Led TFG loses

[xiinfaniin]

Originally posted by Deputy:

I again I do not care about alshabaab or the UIC or mohamed Aideed or galmudug state or puntland or somaliland or RRA land, their policies, strategies, and tactics evoke my feeling in only one aspect will they bring peace, even if it means the stamping down of all opposition through the instict of self preservation?

TFG has failed even in this Brother Xiin, your intentions are good but let this contemptible fraud die, and with hope how ever weak look forward to new realities and new caravans with this carcass out of the way.

^^

 

If TFG ceases to exist, and it’s no longer party to the current conflict, there will not be a need to engage it. It would be good riddance.

 

Till that day comes though, we must differentiate what we desire from what the facts are awoowe!

[AfricaOwn]

Originally posted by Protocol:

AfricaOwn

 

Everything I said is fact, but perhaps I was too blunt. Take it as advice more than anything else sxb.

Until we meet for another around at Las Anood. This time at least put up a fight. That 2 hours takeover was too easy.

[Che -Guevara]

^ Xiin Not repeat the same mantra, even you gotta the TFG as political entity is not viable patner. The entity it seems have to become about personalities which doesn't lend much credibility in the eyes, the world, and now even its handlers. It barely run its own operations let alone make deals with oppisition. Four years of intra-conflicts, and no substantive gains upto now, it is only legacy would be incompatency, and da-ba-dha-lif-nimo.

[ElPunto]

Originally posted by Deputy:

^^^ Nice very succinct.

Firstly the TFG is an instrument whose only usefulness lies in its international recognition as envisioned by the Ethiopians in their creation of this entity to agree to their terms in all issues, as well as the warlords and Afar jebeleyal who participated in its creation in the hopes of accessing the western inflows of aid and thereby legitimacy ala the siyad barre regime in the late 80's.

International recognition is at the very best tenuous and shallow and ebbs away if it were not for the frantic efforts of the good intentioned sheikh.

while indeed the ability of Somalis to come together and agree on a way out of the current impasse is not congintent on the existence of the TFG the insistence on this precondition by the good intentioned is what I found remarkable.

"The support it has from Somalia's regional enemies does not preclude Somalia from moving forward with the resolution of its own internal divisions." There shall be no resolution of the somali impasse that will be genuine and long lasting with the proxies of Ethiopia and Kenya at the table, expecially when theu bear the mantle of a legitimate goverment, how ever much the good intentioned would like to ignore this the facts of 18 years of at times blatant and always present manipulation of the somali dilemma by ethiopia in particular will not allow any genuine reconciliation shall occur in somalia.

As for the UIC the Shabaab e.t.c my only concern is how much closer they bring us to the somali polity we search for rather than the details of battle here and there.

 

First off - Somalia can't dictate any terms - we simply are in no position to do that. We won't be for decades. I'm not sure what Ethiopia or Kenya desires now that is any different from what they've desired since Somalia's independance. As to their playing a role in Somalia's mess - it's only politics as usual. It would be a fantasy to expect them not to take advantage of Somalia's mess. The question is: are Somalis ready to tackle their mess or will they insist on finger pointng and things that are out of the realm of realpolitik? As to the insistence you mentioned - I can't say that I have noticed it but I may have missed it.

 

You're absolutely right - it is filled with warlords and workers for their own stomachs(hehe). I'm not sure we will be rid of such people in Somali politics for some time. But even such folks can move things forward - witness a former NSS official in the northwest.

 

I don't think any group that believes that military might alone will secure its power will last long in Somalia - that's been proven so many times over and over. If the UIC/Shabaab groups want to ratain power - they will have to modify their stance on governing.

[Thankful]

Wow, now Lascaanod is being spoken about. Riyaale came there to campaign in 2002 and was chased out within hours of arriving never to return again. Habsaade is fired from Puntland in 2007 and within a couple weeks he switches Lascaanod away and you're going to actually brag? Whoever Habsaade aligns himself with determines who controls Lascaanod. Bottom line.

[Sir-Qalbi-Adeyg]

Originally posted by AfricaOwn:

quote:Originally posted by Protocol:

AfricaOwn

 

Everything I said is fact, but perhaps I was too blunt. Take it as advice more than anything else sxb.

Until we meet for another around at Las Anood. This time at least put up a fight. That 2 hours takeover was too easy.

ha ha. Las Anod was taken by a local warlord. You really want to take credit for it? Don't expect loyalty from him.

 

If I was somalilander, I'd forget about SSC and focus on hargeisa, burco etc.

[AfricaOwn]

^^^

 

I heard it when I was sleep that the pregnant dude that runs your area promisedd to take it back within a month, and it has beem what already? lol...Your "army" is a featherweight. Ethio got tired of your uncle. He will lose his protection, and the boogeyman (Al Shabab) will soon come to your door step...SL is not even needed.

[Emperor]

A very good waxa-layeri style, informative and entertaining as ever from Baashi

 

In my local tolka-maqaaxi, the nafaqo nutritious news imported directly from Biyo-kululle hood reveal that the rumour of Puntland seceding from the rest of Somalia is nothing but a strategy to strike and kill two birds in one stone. On one hand it is to alarm and embarrass the secessionist camp, that what they have stated and worked too hard for two decades could be claimed by any one entity either small or big, in a matter of minutes in the example of Puntland, hence an illusion - great vision for PL ….

 

On a second note, since Puntland is 2/3 of Somalia with one of the largest coastal line in Africa. Yey, as the TFG President will use it as his regional home to score political goals and pressure the international community to support his TFG otherwise will secede from the South since its akin to havoc and disorder. He’s to move to Garowe and announce Ethiopia to get lost.

 

As of our great Beenay-waa-run newspaper editor confirmed, the news of Puntland secession started about 6 or 8 months ago when President Yey fell out with the head of Ethiopian Army in Somalia General Gabre, who was later replaced amid the saga by another man. In the Biyo-kululle column also writes, at that time Yey contacted the President of Puntland Adde Muse to ask to lay down a strategy for the secession and to inform the highest authority in the land, the issims of Putland. Adde followed suit and called for a meeting held in Bosaaso with the traditional elders, after presenting the case Adde faced a stiff resistance, an angered response and unanimous disagreement from the elders, Meel-walba-joog who was obviously present in this highly exclusive meeting adds that the elders threatened Adde to force him to resign should he comes up with any such foolish move again.

 

Waxa layeri, Yey himself isn’t keen on the issue of secession right now but only as a last resort as he still has some powers and not exhausted all other options. Interpretations of this statement given is, if Yey can make an immediate trip to the Ninka-walaan –ee-lacagta-iska-firdhiya by the name of Gadhafi and have talks behind closed doors with him, if he can re-brand alliance through trips to Khartoum and Kampalla within the interval of hours, adding the rumour reports of nin-diiday-in-magaciisa-lasheego, that Yey is coming back to Somalia through Ali Abdalla Salah of Yemen who he had always relied upon in critical moments and for military supply. Adding to the table that, if his forces are still in shape and stationed the barracks in Baidoa and Magadishu plus the money and supply line of Puntland that is fully behind, and also if more of Somali parliamentarians are with him rather than Nuur Cadde, hence with all this, the interpretation concludes that if one of the two top leaders of the TFG has to go, vacate position and leave for the survival of the TFG, the easier is Nur Cadde, no matter how Ethiopia supports him, arguably and by far Geedi was Ethiopia’s most favourite man in Somalia more than Nur Adde is…

 

Mr War-badane, a close confidante of President Yey leaked to us that the only problem bugging the President as of now is the internal power struggle and leadership in Puntland, its no secret he’s favoring the return of Adde but Oday Yey has not left anymore energy to dictate matters or inform the rest of power contenders in that part of the world to bugger off (god’s sake we have over 200 candidates for one position ), since this time candidates are strongly determined, thus the old man fears any wrong move may lead to internal conflict and disaster in his home base, the foundation of what he terms as his great plans… Although one strategy of Adde’s Muse plan for a come back made the Old man warry and suspicious, Adde is drawing down the map to wage an attack against SL in the excuse of getting back L.A to promote his case for President or extend leadership in the form of ‘We are in a state of war’ as his plan B. His plan A is in operation right now, which is to count the heads of PL parliamentarians that are willing to take his money for their vote, should the numbers do not add up in his favour, Plan B it is. The close confidante of Yey eavesdropped a heated telephone conversation between the two leaders, Yey was strongly against any form of attack against SL fearing it may effect the continuation of supply from PL, after a long and hard-fought conversation Adde persuaded the old man that was the only root back to power should things not go so well, and also Adde boosted SL is weak, simple and easy, we can defeat them and take all of SOL one day in a surprise attack. Finally Adde hunged up the phone smiling, while the close confidante witnessed Yey’s grim face when the peep disconnection tone sounded on his end.

[ElPunto]

^You're like a predictable jack-in-the-box. All one has to do is press a button (ie. Somaliland is NOT the most rockety rocking place in the world) and voila you appear on cue spouting the usual spiel.

 

It doesn't mean you're not entertaining though

[RedSea]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

In avoidance of turning Baashi’s post into another caravan debate, let me say to brother Liqaye

: My argument may be weak, and even my conviction that the only way out of this mess goes through compromise and dialogue between Somali factions may be delusional . But the notion the alshabaab type strategy will usher a new era of peace and stability sounds even weaker. It’s reactionary and only good at opposing things, perhaps destroying things but from what I can tell, it's an empty loom!

 

Time will tell, waa haddii alla na gaarsiiyyee!

I don't see how there could be a T and F and G standing after this storm. I just don't.

[Paragon]

Stop this nonsense, boys . Puntland can't succeed. Heck, our general is going to take the helm soon .

[xiinfaniin]

^^

 

SL is no Bantustan. On that account Oodweyne's protest is warrented.

 

having said that, there are two parallels between secessionist inclinations and that of the said South Africa’s Bantustan.

 

1- setting aside a sizable land for specific groups for political expediency

2- asserting a sovereignty that’s not recognized by outside world.

 

I know it’s not fair to pick on my old pal Oodweyne but the man needs to give serious consideration to Liqaye’s observations.

[ElPunto]

I don't know - me thinks a Bantustan is a step up from a MadMaxStan aka a failed state.

 

Cirdey - I hope the General appears wearing his tute - he looks so cute in that.

[xiinfaniin]

Oodweyne,

 

TFG has a salvage value, and the caravan intends to milk it. If it ceases to exist, the caravan will deal with whatever replacement the powers that be put in its place. Of course local players will have to be engaged as well.

 

That's the vision of this caravan Oodka. But you my good cyber friend have no capacity to obsorb it.

 

Now since you are in a good mood tonight, why dont you read out the verses of Somaliland's legal basis, her dealings with the Intelegence community, and the timelines of her full indepedence. Dont forget to tell us the difference between PL and SL. Some people, especially those in the outside world, tend to confuse the two.

 

 

Hayye nagu soo dhur hee!

[Abtigiis]

Protocol, you said

 

"I don't understand how you are blaming the ***** clan, abdullahi yusuf will always have the support of puntland and his clan, that is true but he's never been interested in tribal hegemony . Now if you said you are blaming the '*****' tribe, that's understandble."

 

A sick mind always thinks of sick ideas. Now, if I were talking about the clan you talk about, I bet I am capable of coming out and saying so. I would have used the euphemistic tag Puntland. I was not referring to that clan, but to all the *****-clan, and I think I have said Siyaad Barre, and the refugees from the *****-land (if that is what you think I am hiding) were the ones who did most of the atrocities in the north. The Punties were victims themselves then. But, when it comes to the horrendous massacres in Muqdisho, the Punties will come to the play.

 

I was in Nairobi few months back, and met a lot of somali's of all clans. Nearly 95% of the guys from Puntland I met over dinners, over hotel lobbies, sanctioned the atrocities in Muqdisho. So, I have the right to think it was a collective project, although initiated by one greedy man. Back home In Garowe and Bossasso, people may have different ideas. But, throughout the histroy of the wrold, it was the elities who were counted as the mouth-piece of the communities they purport to represent. In this regard, we talk about Israel collectively, and not Ariel Sharon as a person when talking about the oppression of Palestinians.

 

By the way, nearly 100 elders from Puntland were hosted by the TFG in Mogdishu at the height of the massacres (to the dismay of the local), but have you heard a single declaration of disassociating themselves from the deeds of Ina Yusuf? Let us be blunt and frank here!!

 

You said:

 

"I don't mind being blamed for trying to revive the somali republic."

 

This mind set was what I was trying to warn against. War Somalinimada nina xil gaar ah kama saara ee yaan dadka la xigsan. Typical Amhara- chauvinists in Ethiopia oppress the Oromos and other nationalities with same mantra of being the 'Only ethiopians'.

 

You also said:

 

"There were more ***** like the OG fighting against the TFG than ***** tribe. This has nothing to do with tribes, but more about ideology."

 

True! but, the allignments among the uninvolved Somali's are based on calculations made by each clan of its interst. This does not include the TFG and the Muqaawamah, where I believe personal and group intersts are more dominant than tribal considerations.

 

You went on:

 

"The TFG and abdullahi yusuf always represent somali's who are interested in peace, government and rule of law well at least at the beginning. While the al shabab represent somali's extremist, former looters turned shiecks, ignorance and lack of education etc."

 

BIG LIE! and a serious manefistation of dishonesty!

 

And then this comes as the parting shot, and it revealed your true colours:

 

Naxar Nugaleed, I'm not interested in babysitting savages and secessionists anymore, I say let them cannibalize each other and let's move forward and work on our regions. We have oil, a long coastline, resourceful and intelligent citizen in punt-land. What do we need Mogadishu and the south for?

"

Puntland has the potential to be the dubai of east of africa if the leadership was competent and not interested in engaging the south."

 

 

Savanges and secessionists?????????? Maca salaama!

 

[ November 21, 2008, 12:36 AM: Message edited by: Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar ]