Puntland Will Secede -- if Yussuf Led TFG loses

[Baashi]

Puntland Will Secede

By Xog-Ogaal Inna War-Xume Tashiil

* Waxa-La-Yirri Special

 

November 18 (Grapevine Report) -- TFG leader Inna Yussuf shifts gear in a desperate attempt to fend off immanent political realignment in the region and asks Gaddafi for help. The turnaround is significant development in violence ridden anarchic Somalia. Inna Yussuf’s remaining card has been revealed when Ethiopian leadership made their choice last Thursday.

 

Analysts in the region are scrambling for explanation. The man that whispers in Gaddafi’s ear and exploits Libyan leader’s weak spot for “Qowmiyah Al Arabia” today is the same man who signed IGAD’s official document declaring that they have the sole responsibility for finding ways and means to stabilize their neighbor. In his capacity as the “leader” of the Transitional Institutional Framework, Inna Yey has already agreed with IGAD’s preeminence in the region. A move designed to keep Egypt and its Arab League of off Somalia’s affairs.

 

He has also signed IGAD initiative stipulating that he will be presiding soon to be constituted unity government in which the opposing figures will have prominent positions in the government. The trouble with that is he won’t be able to stay true to the power sharing scheme of 4.5 formulas -- a formula he abides by religiously -- since all opposing figures and groups are from 1/4.5 of 4.5 fractions!

 

According to Inna Shaandhaye, the Biibito talk has been all about the power sharing formulations in conformance with age old clan matrix. Inna Yey loses three times. For one ARS Djibouti wing won almost all their demands. IGAD, Ethiopia included, has committed itself to see that ARS get 1/3 of the possible positions -- cabinet positions of their choosing.

 

Despite the Islamic garb, ARS Djibouti wing is seen by many as clannish grouping from northern part of Benadir -- both militarily as well as politically. To appease Gurriceel grouping TFI has to accommodate Nur’s proposal to win them over to the TFG side by giving them a seat at the table. An act Inn Yey considers as a double dealings in which folks from that column of the clannish matrix want to take shares above and beyond what 4.5 formula allows them to have.

 

Inna Yey’s attempt to portray Geddo boys as part of the opposition has been roundly rejected. He disdains Turki and has no contact person in Turki’s tightly controlled camp. JABISO is said to be his kinsmen but the difference between them and his outlook of the world is too strong he considers them as his enemy.

 

Inna Nur, the PM, has not done Yussuf any favors either. He insisted on picking the cabinet members meaning Yussifites will not be nominated. The only card left in his hand is to exercise presidential prerogatives and reject PM’s request in toto -- an act IGAD is not prepared to accept. Calculus does not seem to add up to Inna Yeys advantage.

 

Beyond the political jackpot, Inna Yussuf camp is weak on security. In fact he relies on AMISOM for his basic security. He has capable and loyal bodyguards. But they are just that -- bodyguards!

 

Inna Yussif has shunned Arab League from having a say in Somali affairs. He singlehandedly prevented them in taking part Somalia’s security arrangement. He has supported French’s proposal to employ military solution to the piracy problem -- ironically with Egypt’s objection. Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti are no friend.

 

Today he needs a counter weight regional force to balance the stakes out. It is too late to mount diplomatic fence mending tour at this 11 hour. Why Gaddafi and can he get Egypt, along with Sudan and Djibouti, to go out of its way in airing skepticism of IGAD’s bold move in “owning” the process.

 

Inna Yussuf is an old actor in Somali political theater and as such his moves are predictable. If he does not get his way and if Ethiopia vacates Benadir exposing him to the wolves he will have no choice but return to Puntland and declare independency. Nothing short of that will make him relevant -- and relevant is what he wants to be.

 

Today’s Biibito tidbits

Waxa-La-Yirri Just-In Report

[Baashi]

Maqaaxi Version -- Just-In

 

Egypt newspapers are reporting that Mr. Yussuf is expected to return to Mogadihsu and impose martial laws, suspending parliament and government, and granting broader powers to Mohamed Dheere and his likes.

 

This man is ready for hardball. At issue is where will this act leave Tigre mercenaries and since they don't have folks they can support at this juncture what will their move be.

 

Interesting development!

[Che -Guevara]

TRIPOLI, Libya Nov 18 (Garowe Online) - Somalia’s interim President Abdullahi Yusuf has said that the Ethiopian government is ‘independent’ in its decision to withdraw its troops from Somalia.

 

During a Tuesday interview with the VOA Somali Service, President Yusuf suggested that the ongoing feud with Prime Minister Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein has not deteriorated relations with Ethiopian leaders.

 

Somalia’s president says Ethiopia ‘independent’ to remove troops

 

 

[Baashi]

Chatters are getting louder by the minute. Ear-on-the-ground instrument employed by Waxa-La-Yirri gathering team are extremely sensitive equipment designed to pick up chatters in marfishes, biibito, maqaaxi, and even ad hoc small gathering where radio news are dissected and synthesized

 

Stay tuned folks. We got something on the screen...too much of white noise but soon the team will filter it out through our firqa and clan-blind screen.

[Budul101]

^^ WAr anaga wax aragnay. Is he desperate to be the beneath of Qadafi or still playing political game to embarrass the Ethiopian leadership by to showing them he has another option? But, Qadaf's option might not offer too much for departing AY.

then, Maxaa dan ah maxaase xal ah? Ma halaisku yaaco oo hala kala yaacaa arinku?

[Kashafa]

If he does not get his way and if Ethiopia vacates Benadir exposing him to the wolves he will have no choice but return to Puntland and declare independency

@independency. Whatever happened to the 'secessionist mafia' rhetoric ? Whatever happened to 'dawladnimo' 'qarannimo' iy 'fowr-bointi-fife' ? If Cabdullahi Amxaar thinks it's gonna be all malab iyo caano by raising his skirt and high-tailing it to Garowe, macalinka is in for a rude awakening.

 

Nothing will satisfy the Resistance save complete, unconditional, and abject surrender(wahom saaghiroon).

 

Some folks mistakenly believe that the on-going Liberation Halgan is a fight against Ethiopia and that the war will end when Ethiopia is expelled. Wrong. This is a revolutionary struggle to reclaim the soul of Somalia, the very meaning of what it is to be a Somali, to be a Muslim. And in that effort, all of the dhbhdolifs, mooriyaaan, and qabilistos that have feasted on the flesh of Umada Soomaliyeed these past 40 years will be eradicated. No mercy. No reconcilliation. No compromise. Through the crack of the bullet and the roar of mortar, they will be force-fed the dirt of humiliation and the ghost of accountability and justice will haunt their last days on earth, as they flee seeking exile and mercy when there is none to be had.

 

Some might wonder: Might this take-no-prisoners approach fan the flames of clan war ?

 

The answer is refreshingly simple: So. Be. It. Any clan milita what stands up with Yey, Nur Cade, Adam Madoobe will be the authors of their own doom. The same dharbaaxo kulayl oo ku dhacthay Barre Hiraale and the Nine Mogadisho Warlords(wa kaana fil madeenati tiscatu rahtin yufsidoon fil ardhi walaa yuslixoon) is what awaits them.

 

Hadee jiraan dad iska dhaadhaciyay that Somalia will fragment into 'Tol enclaves' where each clan has their 'righteous sphere of influence', they might wanna wake up from that pleasent IsQancis dream.

 

As town after town and city after city falls to the Resistance, the qaylo-dhaan and cabaad of Tol enthusiasts(overt or covert) will be a wonderful tune to the ears of Umada Soomaliyeed oo Xalaasha ah.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Am really of the opinion that we all sink or swim.

Yet still, Puntland is an autonomous region, that autonomy gives it the ability to make sure that foolish political movements south of do not effect and also reject any regime not based sound legel bases and equality. Should the TFG fail, President Yusuf and other members, both political and military, should return to their state and call it a day. Perhaps even usurp Somali Sovereignty/state considering their the only sane left on the block.

As far as Puntland being surrounded hostile neighbors to its west and south holding some unknown grudges, what utter nonsense! Believe me should anything along those lines happen, Puntland will extend it rule to part of galgaduud and all of Gedo and Jubaland.

[Sir-Qalbi-Adeyg]

I've been calling for puntland independence for some time now. Clearly, the international community and southern somali's are not interested in supporting a central somali government. Why must puntland continue to waste resources their? There is more than enough work to be done in puntland.

[AfricaOwn]

Buahaha...SL is a bad influence huh.

[Kamaavi]

Reality is like adding salt to injury as far as certain Punto-centric groups are concerned.

 

Jeesto~

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

protocol, walaal Puntland and its people sometimes seem the only sane Somalis left in that mad house, secessionist (For unknown reasons) to their West and anarchist to their South. That hopeful and vigilant stewardship of Somali Statehood, even if it fails, should not be seen as a waste.

 

Oodka, brother Ethiopia has and will remain an insignificant factor in Somali affairs, justifiably or not. There exists not a single poltical leader in any part who has not dealt with or sought ethiopian assistance to keep political vultures at bay in their own regions except, of course, few dugsy teachers who all the sudden want to rule the world. Basically, You should not be mad at A yusuf, for succeeding where all others have failed, Manipulation of your interest to coincide with those of your allies is only a tool of statecraft that only he has managed to use.

Is it impossible for you to go back to pre TFG era where all political actors in Somalia had access to Ethiopia equally and Puntland was holding its own against the enemies you suggest are at all gates?

 

Conclusion, don't hate the president for accomplishing what all others have failed to do. Two, Puntland has always defended itself from religious fanatics,southern lunatics and over intoxicated north westerners and no amount of change in the south can destabilize it. More importantly, a TFG failure will return Puntland troops and free up the Puntland Tax payers to spend their resource in thair own state. Simply put, while others where playing a zero sum game, Puntland has been creating win win situations.

[Jacaylbaro]

Ehem Ehem ehem ,,,

[Koora-Tuunshe]

Originally posted by Baashi:

Maqaaxi Version

-- Just-In

 

Egypt newspapers are reporting that Mr. Yussuf is expected to return to Mogadihsu and impose martial laws, suspending parliament and government, and granting broader powers to Mohamed Dheere and his likes.

 

This man is ready for hardball. At issue is where will this act leave Tigre mercenaries and since

they don't have folks they can support at this juncture what will their move be.

 

Interesting development!

What about North Mogadishu folks and the new Geedi/Ade coalition.

[Nephissa]

JB, jooji .

 

Conclusion, don't hate the president for accomplishing what all others have failed to do.

blahblahblahblahblah...

 

So, what exactly has he DONE?

[Jacaylbaro]

Neph, he has done the best thing ever that none of the others didn't do ever, brining Xabashis to kill his own people.

 

Ma wax ka fiican baa jira ?? ,,,

 

 

Ohhh ,, and he appointed Duke as an ambassador ,,